A functional specification and validation model for networks on chip in the ACL2 logic

International audience

Predicting Non Return to Work after Orthopaedic Trauma: The Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK (WORRK) Model.

BACKGROUND: Workers with persistent disabilities after orthopaedic trauma may need occupational rehabilitation. Despite various risk profiles for non-return-to-work (non-RTW), there is no available predictive model. Moreover, injured workers may have various origins (immigrant workers), which may either affect their return to work or their eligibility for research purposes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model that estimates the likelihood of non-RTW after occupational rehabilitation using predictors which do not rely on the worker's background. METHODS: Prospective cohort study (3177 participants, native (51%) and immigrant workers (49%)) with two samples: a) Development sample with patients from 2004 to 2007 with Full and Reduced Models, b) External validation of the Reduced Model with patients from 2008 to March 2010. We collected patients' data and biopsychosocial complexity with an observer rated interview (INTERMED). Non-RTW was assessed two years after discharge from the rehabilitation. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated with a calibration plot. The model was reduced with random forests. RESULTS: At 2 years, the non-RTW status was known for 2462 patients (77.5% of the total sample). The prevalence of non-RTW was 50%. The full model (36 items) and the reduced model (19 items) had acceptable discrimination performance (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76, respectively) and good calibration. For the validation model, the discrimination performance was acceptable (AUC 0.73; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.77) and calibration was also adequate. CONCLUSIONS: Non-RTW may be predicted with a simple model constructed with variables independent of the patient's education and language fluency. This model is useful for all kinds of trauma in order to adjust for case mix and it is applicable to vulnerable populations like immigrant workers.

Establishing the risk of neonatal mortality using a fuzzy predictive model

O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.

Model Evaluation Based on the Distribution of Estimated Absolute Prediction Error

The construction of a reliable, practically useful prediction rule for future response is heavily dependent on the "adequacy" of the fitted regression model. In this article, we consider the absolute prediction error, the expected value of the absolute difference between the future and predicted responses, as the model evaluation criterion. This prediction error is easier to interpret than the average squared error and is equivalent to the mis-classification error for the binary outcome. We show that the distributions of the apparent error and its cross-validation counterparts are approximately normal even under a misspecified fitted model. When the prediction rule is "unsmooth", the variance of the above normal distribution can be estimated well via a perturbation-resampling method. We also show how to approximate the distribution of the difference of the estimated prediction errors from two competing models. With two real examples, we demonstrate that the resulting interval estimates for prediction errors provide much more information about model adequacy than the point estimates alone.

Attachment and infant difficultness in postnatal depression

This project investigated the relationship between attachment style and postnatal depression. In a sample of mothers with infants, those identifying themselves as depressed reported a more preoccupied attachment style by comparison with their nondepressed counterparts. Maternal attachment style was not related to perceived infant characteristics or to the reported mother-child relationship. Postnatal depression, however, was related to both perceived infant characteristics and the reported mother-child relationship. Although postnatal depression was not significantly related to marital quality, a trend did emerge between attachment style and marital quality. These findings suggest that further research is warranted to clarify the relationship between attachment style and postnatal depression.

Prognosis Relevance of Serum Cytokines in Pancreatic Cancer.

The overall survival of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is extremely low. Although gemcitabine is the standard used chemotherapy for this disease, clinical outcomes do not reflect significant improvements, not even when combined with adjuvant treatments. There is an urgent need for prognosis markers to be found. The aim of this study was to analyze the potential value of serum cytokines to find a profile that can predict the clinical outcome in patients with pancreatic cancer and to establish a practical prognosis index that significantly predicts patients' outcomes. We have conducted an extensive analysis of serum prognosis biomarkers using an antibody array comprising 507 human cytokines. Overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard models were used to analyze prognosis factors. To determine the extent that survival could be predicted based on this index, we used the leave-one-out cross-validation model. The multivariate model showed a better performance and it could represent a novel panel of serum cytokines that correlates to poor prognosis in pancreatic cancer. B7-1/CD80, EG-VEGF/PK1, IL-29, NRG1-beta1/HRG1-beta1, and PD-ECGF expressions portend a poor prognosis for patients with pancreatic cancer and these cytokines could represent novel therapeutic targets for this disease.

Coconstruction des composantes d'un programme d'intervention en soutien à la résilience de familles dont un adolescent est atteint d'un traumatisme craniocérébral

La vie de famille avec un adolescent comporte son lot de défis. Les émotions de l’adolescent qui se présentent parfois comme des montagnes russes peuvent rendre les relations tendues et difficiles au sein de la cellule familiale, voire même au-delà de celle-ci. Par son caractère inattendu, l’avènement d’un traumatisme craniocérébral (TCC) chez l’adolescent vient fragiliser encore davantage la dynamique familiale. En outre, la myriade d’impacts engendrés par le TCC contraint la famille à modifier son projet de vie en s’investissant ensemble pour le reconstruire. La résilience devant une situation de traumatisme ne se manifeste pas de la même façon pour toutes les familles qui y sont confrontées. Certaines d’entre elles réussissent à se transformer positivement, tandis que d’autres n’y parviennent pas ou manifestent plus de difficultés. Il convient alors d’actualiser des approches de soins interdisciplinaires centrées sur la famille qui favoriseraient la reconnaissance des éléments pouvant soutenir son processus de résilience à travers cette épreuve et, enfin, aider à transformer son projet de vie. Avec comme perspective disciplinaire le modèle humaniste des soins infirmiers (Cara, 2012; Cara & Girard, 2013; Girard & Cara, 2011), cette étude qualitative et inductive (LoBiondo-Wood, Haber, Cameron, & Singh, 2009), soutenue par une approche collaborative de recherche (Desgagné, 1997), a permis la coconstruction des composantes d’un programme d’intervention en soutien à la résilience familiale, avec des familles dont un adolescent est atteint d’un TCC modéré ou sévère et des professionnels de la réadaptation. Le modèle de développement et de validation d’interventions complexes (Van Meijel, Gamel, Van Swieten-Duijfjes, & Grypdonck, 2004) a structuré la collecte des données en trois volets. Le premier volet consistait à identifier les composantes du programme d’intervention selon les familles (n=6) et les professionnels de la réadaptation (n=5). La priorisation et la validation des composantes du programme d’intervention, soit respectivement le deuxième et troisième volets, se sont réalisées auprès de ces mêmes familles (n=6 au volet 2 et n=4 au volet 3) et professionnels de la réadaptation (n=5 aux volets 2 et 3). Le processus d’analyse des données (Miles & Huberman, 2003) a repéré cinq thèmes intégrateurs, considérés comme les composantes du programme d’intervention en soutien à la résilience familiale à la suite du TCC modéré ou sévère d’un adolescent. Ce sont : 1) les caractéristiques de la famille et ses influences; 2) les stratégies familiales positives; 3) le soutien familial et social; 4) la prise en charge de l’aspect occupationnel et; 5) l’apport de la communauté et des professionnels de la santé. Les résultats issus de ce processus de coconstruction ont produit une matrice solide, suffisamment flexible pour pouvoir s’adapter aux différents contextes dans lesquels évoluent les familles et les professionnels de la réadaptation. Cette étude offre en outre des avenues intéressantes tant pour les praticiens que pour les gestionnaires et les chercheurs en sciences infirmières et dans d’autres disciplines quant à la mise en place de stratégies concrètes visant à soutenir le processus de résilience des familles dans des situations particulièrement difficiles de leur vie.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Estimating hardness of eucalyptus wood with a portable hardness tester

More than 80% of the 29600 km of the Brazilian railroad mesh employs wooden sleepers. The problem of hard availability of native wood for this purpose leads to the alternative use of reforestation species to produce sleepers. Considering the great difficulty to, in field condition, evaluate characteristics that are of major importance to define its suitability to sleeper production the Research Group on Forest Products from FCA/UNESP - Brazil had developed equipment for field evaluation of hardness in wood - Portable Hardness Tester. This paper reports the functional validation tests, performed with different species of Eucalyptus. Results revealed the equipment great functionality, easy-to-use characteristics and applicability to Eucalyptus wood. Moderate to strong relationships between laboratory and validated values of hardness were found. The best validation model was obtained using the data provided by the experimental dispositive 3 (R2=0.74 and SSE= 7.71 kJ/m2) while the experimental dispositive 1 gave the worse validation (R2=0.55 and SSE= 13.46 kJ/m2).

Paciente laringectomizado total: validação das características definidoras para o diagnóstico de enfermagem comunicação prejudicada

Este estudo teve por objetivo validar as características definidoras do diagnóstico de enfermagem "Comunicação prejudicada ao paciente submetido à laringectomia total." Para sua realização, optou-se pelo modelo validação de conteúdo diagnóstico (CDV) de FEHRING (1986, 1987). Coletaram-se os dados por meio de uma escala de freqüência do tipo Likert, composta por vinte e seis características definidoras da lista oficial da North American Nursing Diagnosis Association (NANDA) e três características definidoras fictícias. Participaram do estudo vinte e seis enfermeiros assistenciais e docentes. Os resultados demonstraram uma CDV total de 0,84 para as características definidoras maiores e CDV total de 0,69 para as características definidoras menores. Reconheceu-se que o estudo validou as características definidoras preconizadas pela NANDA para o diagnóstico de enfermagem comunicação prejudicada.

In Richtung "Komplexe PTBS": die deutsche Version des Trauma Symptom Inventory (TSI) zur Erfassung komplexer Traumafolgen.

Die Studie überprüfte die deutsche Übersetzung des Trauma Symptom Inventory (TSI) von Briere [1], das die Komplexe PTB-Symptomatik erfassen soll. Das TSI war Teil einer Testbatterie, welche weiter den Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, Short Screening Scale, Short Form Health Survey, Geriatrische Depressionsskala und das Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview enthielt. Untersucht wurde eine Stichprobe von N=116 älteren Personen (Altersbereich: 59-98 Jahre; 40,5% Frauen) mit einer Häufung potentiell traumatischer Erfahrungen in der Kindheit. Die deutsche Version des TSI zeigte eine adäquate interne Konsistenz, überwiegend gute Trennschärfen und Schwierigkeitsindizes sowie eine gute Kriteriums- und Konstruktvalidität. Hinsichtlich faktorieller Validität konnte ein Validierungsmodell [2] aus dem europäischen Raum tendenziell besser repliziert werden, als das amerikanische Originalmodell von Briere. Das TSI erwies sich als reliables, ökonomisches und teilweise valides Instrument zur Erfassung der Komplexen PTB-Symptomatik.

La Validación Lingüística en los Principales Cuestionarios de Salud y Calidad de Vida

The goals of this article are to summarize the problems and solutions found in translating seven Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQOL) questionnaires from English into Spanish which have used a common international protocol based on back-translation techniques. The methodology used is based on the linguistic validation model including both the linguistic and the sociopragmatic equivalence. Five questionnaires from seven have obtained good results, not so two of them. Considering linguistic questions, there were more problems than good solutions on the lexical-semantic level. With respect to the sociocultural questions, there were more solutions than problems. The Spanish translated questionnaires still present deficiencies to be corrected, so both linguistic and sociocultural questions have to be studied more carefully in order not to allow differences between the translated versions and the source questionnaires.

Validation of an experimental polyurethane model for biomechanical studies on implant supported prosthesis - tension tests

OBJECTIVES: The complexity and heterogeneity of human bone, as well as ethical issues, frequently hinder the development of clinical trials. The purpose of this in vitro study was to determine the modulus of elasticity of a polyurethane isotropic experimental model via tension tests, comparing the results to those reported in the literature for mandibular bone, in order to validate the use of such a model in lieu of mandibular bone in biomechanical studies. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty-five polyurethane test specimens were divided into 3 groups of 15 specimens each, according to the ratio (A/B) of polyurethane reagents (PU-1: 1/0.5, PU-2: 1/1, PU-3: 1/1.5). RESULTS: Tension tests were performed in each experimental group and the modulus of elasticity values found were 192.98 MPa (SD=57.20) for PU-1, 347.90 MPa (SD=109.54) for PU-2 and 304.64 MPa (SD=25.48) for PU-3. CONCLUSION: The concentration of choice for building the experimental model was 1/1.

Validation of an experimental polyurethane model for biomechanical studies on implant-supported prosthesis: compression tests

OBJECTIVES: The complexity and heterogeneity of human bone, as well as ethical issues, most always hinder the performance of clinical trials. Thus, in vitro studies become an important source of information for the understanding of biomechanical events on implant-supported prostheses, although study results cannot be considered reliable unless validation studies are conducted. The purpose of this work was to validate an artificial experimental model based on its modulus of elasticity, to simulate the performance of human bone in vivo in biomechanical studies of implant-supported prostheses. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this study, fast-curing polyurethane (F16 polyurethane, Axson) was used to build 40 specimens that were divided into five groups. The following reagent ratios (part A/part B) were used: Group A (0.5/1.0), Group B (0.8/1.0), Group C (1.0/1.0), Group D (1.2/1.0), and Group E (1.5/1.0). A universal testing machine (Kratos model K - 2000 MP) was used to measure modulus of elasticity values by compression. RESULTS: Mean modulus of elasticity values were: Group A - 389.72 MPa, Group B - 529.19 MPa, Group C - 571.11 MPa, Group D - 470.35 MPa, Group E - 437.36 MPa. CONCLUSION: The best mechanical characteristics and modulus of elasticity value comparable to that of human trabecular bone were obtained when A/B ratio was 1:1.

Validation of the Deardorff model for estimating energy balance components for a sugarcane crop

The quantification of the available energy in the environment is important because it determines photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and, therefore, the final yield of crops. Instruments for measuring the energy balance are costly and indirect estimation alternatives are desirable. This study assessed the Deardorff's model performance during a cycle of a sugarcane crop in Piracicaba, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in comparison to the aerodynamic method. This mechanistic model simulates the energy fluxes (sensible, latent heat and net radiation) at three levels (atmosphere, canopy and soil) using only air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed measured at a reference level above the canopy, crop leaf area index, and some pre-calibrated parameters (canopy albedo, soil emissivity, atmospheric transmissivity and hydrological characteristics of the soil). The analysis was made for different time scales, insolation conditions and seasons (spring, summer and autumn). Analyzing all data of 15 minute intervals, the model presented good performance for net radiation simulation in different insolations and seasons. The latent heat flux in the atmosphere and the sensible heat flux in the atmosphere did not present differences in comparison to data from the aerodynamic method during the autumn. The sensible heat flux in the soil was poorly simulated by the model due to the poor performance of the soil water balance method. The Deardorff's model improved in general the flux simulations in comparison to the aerodynamic method when more insolation was available in the environment.