97 resultados para Sistemas não-lineares e variantes no tempo
Resumo:
Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model
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This work aims to analyze risks related to information technology (IT) in procedures related to data migration. This is done considering ALEPH, Integrated Libray System (ILS) that migrated data to the Library Module present in the software called Sistema Integrado de Gestão de Atividades Acadêmicas (SIGAA) at the Zila Mamede Central Library at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) in Natal/Brazil. The methodological procedure used was of a qualitative exploratory research with the realization of case study at the referred library in order to better understand this phenomenon. Data collection was able once there was use of a semi-structured interview that was applied with (11) subjects that are employed at the library as well as in the Technology Superintendence at UFRN. In order to examine data Content analysis as well as thematic review process was performed. After data migration the results of the interview were then linked to both analysis units and their system register with category correspondence. The main risks detected were: data destruction; data loss; data bank communication failure; user response delay; data inconsistency and duplicity. These elements point out implication and generate disorders that affect external and internal system users and lead to stress, work duplicity and hassles. Thus, some measures were taken related to risk management such as adequate planning, central management support, and pilot test simulations. For the advantages it has reduced of: risk, occurrence of problems and possible unforeseen costs, and allows achieving organizational objectives, among other. It is inferred therefore that the risks present in data bank conversion in libraries exist and some are predictable, however, it is seen that librarians do not know or ignore and are not very worried in the identification risks in data bank conversion, their acknowledge would minimize or even extinguish them. Another important aspect to consider is the existence of few empirical research that deal specifically with this subject and thus presenting the new of new approaches in order to promote better understanding of the matter in the corporate environment of the information units
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With the advances in medicine, life expectancy of the world population has grown considerably in recent decades. Studies have been performed in order to maintain the quality of life through the development of new drugs and new surgical procedures. Biomaterials is an example of the researches to improve quality of life, and its use goes from the reconstruction of tissues and organs affected by diseases or other types of failure, to use in drug delivery system able to prolong the drug in the body and increase its bioavailability. Biopolymers are a class of biomaterials widely targeted by researchers since they have ideal properties for biomedical applications, such as high biocompatibility and biodegradability. Poly (lactic acid) (PLA) is a biopolymer used as a biomaterial and its monomer, lactic acid, is eliminated by the Krebs Cycle (citric acid cycle). It is possible to synthesize PLA through various synthesis routes, however, the direct polycondensation is cheaper due the use of few steps of polymerization. In this work we used experimental design (DOE) to produce PLAs with different molecular weight from the direct polycondensation of lactic acid, with characteristics suitable for use in drug delivery system (DDS). Through the experimental design it was noted that the time of esterification, in the direct polycondensation, is the most important stage to obtain a higher molecular weight. The Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrograms obtained were equivalent to the PLAs available in the literature. Results of Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) showed that all PLAs produced are semicrystalline with glass transition temperatures (Tgs) ranging between 36 - 48 °C, and melting temperatures (Tm) ranging from 117 to 130 °C. The PLAs molecular weight characterized from Size Exclusion Chromatography (SEC), varied from 1000 to 11,000 g/mol. PLAs obtained showed a fibrous morphology characterized by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM)
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In Brazilian Northeast there are reservoirs with heavy oil, which use steam flooding as a recovery method. This process allows to reduce oil viscosity, increasing its mobility and consequently its oil recovery. Steam injection is a thermal method and can occurs in continues or cyclic form. Cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) can be repeated several times. Each cycle consisting of three stages: steam injection, soaking time and production phase. CSS becomes less efficient with an increase of number of cycles. Thus, this work aims to study the influence of compositional models in cyclic steam injection and the effects of some parameters, such like: flow injection, steam quality and temperature of steam injected, analyzing the influence of pseudocomponents numbers on oil rate, cumulative oil, oil recovery and simulation time. In the situations analyzed was compared the model of fluid of three phases and three components known as Blackoil . Simulations were done using commercial software (CMG), it was analyzed a homogeneous reservoir with characteristics similar to those found in Brazilian Northeast. It was observed that an increase of components number, increase the time spent in simulation. As for analyzed parameters, it appears that the steam rate, and steam quality has influence on cumulative oil and oil recovery. The number of components did not a lot influenced on oil recovery, however it has influenced on gas production
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Cementing operation is one of the most important stages in the oil well drilling processes and has main function to form hydraulic seal between the various permeable zones traversed by the well. However, several problems may occur with the cement sheath, either during primary cementing or during the well production period. Cements low resistance can cause fissures in the cement sheath and compromise the mechanical integrity of the annular, resulting in contamination of groundwater and producing zones. Several researches show that biomass ash, in particular, those generated by the sugarcane industry have pozzolanic activity and can be added in the composition of the cementing slurries in diverse applications, providing improvements in mechanical properties, revenue and cement durability. Due to the importance of a low cost additive that increases the mechanical properties in a well cementing operations, this study aimed to potentiate the use of sugarcane bagasse ash as pozzolanic material, evaluate the mechanisms of action of this one on cement pastes properties and apply this material in systems slurries aimed to cementing a well with 800 m depth and geothermal gradient of 1.7 °F/100 ft, as much primary cementing operations as squeeze. To do this, the ash beneficiation methods were realized through the processes of grinding, sifting and reburning (calcination) and then characterization by X-ray fluorescence, XRD, TG / DTG, specific surface area, particle size distribution by laser diffraction and mass specific. Moreover, the ash pozzolanic activity added to the cement at concentrations of 0%, 20% and 40% BWOC was evaluated by pozzolanic activity index with lime and with Portland cement. The evaluation of the pozzolanic activity by XRD, TG / DTG and compressive strength confirmed the ash reactivity and indicated that the addition of 20% in the composition of cement slurries produces improvement 34% in the mechanical properties of the slurry cured. Cement slurries properties evaluated by rheological measurements, fluid loss, free fluid, slurry sedimentation, thickening time and sonic strength (UCA) were satisfactory and showed the viability of using the sugarcane ash in cement slurries composition for well cementing
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In this dissertation, the theoretical principles governing the molecular modeling were applied for electronic characterization of oligopeptide α3 and its variants (5Q, 7Q)-α3, as well as in the quantum description of the interaction of the aminoglycoside hygromycin B and the 30S subunit of bacterial ribosome. In the first study, the linear and neutral dipeptides which make up the mentioned oligopeptides were modeled and then optimized for a structure of lower potential energy and appropriate dihedral angles. In this case, three subsequent geometric optimization processes, based on classical Newtonian theory, the semi-empirical and density functional theory (DFT), explore the energy landscape of each dipeptide during the search of ideal minimum energy structures. Finally, great conformers were described about its electrostatic potential, ionization energy (amino acids), and frontier molecular orbitals and hopping term. From the hopping terms described in this study, it was possible in subsequent studies to characterize the charge transport propertie of these peptides models. It envisioned a new biosensor technology capable of diagnosing amyloid diseases, related to an accumulation of misshapen proteins, based on the conductivity displayed by proteins of the patient. In a second step of this dissertation, a study carried out by quantum molecular modeling of the interaction energy of an antibiotic ribosomal aminoglicosídico on your receiver. It is known that the hygromycin B (hygB) is an aminoglycoside antibiotic that affects ribosomal translocation by direct interaction with the small subunit of the bacterial ribosome (30S), specifically with nucleotides in helix 44 of the 16S ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA). Due to strong electrostatic character of this connection, it was proposed an energetic investigation of the binding mechanism of this complex using different values of dielectric constants (ε = 0, 4, 10, 20 and 40), which have been widely used to study the electrostatic properties of biomolecules. For this, increasing radii centered on the hygB centroid were measured from the 30S-hygB crystal structure (1HNZ.pdb), and only the individual interaction energy of each enclosed nucleotide was determined for quantum calculations using molecular fractionation with conjugate caps (MFCC) strategy. It was noticed that the dielectric constants underestimated the energies of individual interactions, allowing the convergence state is achieved quickly. But only for ε = 40, the total binding energy of drug-receptor interaction is stabilized at r = 18A, which provided an appropriate binding pocket because it encompassed the main residues that interact more strongly with the hygB - C1403, C1404, G1405, A1493, G1494, U1495, U1498 and C1496. Thus, the dielectric constant ≈ 40 is ideal for the treatment of systems with many electrical charges. By comparing the individual binding energies of 16S rRNA nucleotides with the experimental tests that determine the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of hygB, it is believed that those residues with high binding values generated bacterial resistance to the drug when mutated. With the same reasoning, since those with low interaction energy do not influence effectively the affinity of the hygB in its binding site, there is no loss of effectiveness if they were replaced.
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Ao longo desta pesquisa, defendemos que projetos sociais como o Programa Segundo Tempo podem ampliar seus objetivos e ações interventivas para além da inclusão social de pessoas excluídas socialmente do acesso a direitos sociais, considerando esses espaços também como promotores de possibilidades educativas. Dialogamos com diversos autores da área da Educação, da Educação Física e das Ciências Sociais, para fortalecer nossos argumentos. Nesse sentido, nossa proposta de pesquisa orientou-se pelo método de pesquisa ação e pelas estratégias e técnicas de pesquisa que o apoiam, desenvolvendo uma proposta de intervenção e acompanhamento sistemático caracterizado basicamente pela realização de seminários e ciclos de observação da prática pedagógica dos monitores e coordenadores de núcleo do PST no convênio da Prefeitura Municipal de Riacho da Cruz, a fim de contribuir para processos de tomada de consciência e mudanças na prática pedagógica que se apresentassem indesejáveis às orientações teóricas e metodológicas do PST. Para tanto, buscamos analisar os problemas da transição das orientações teóricas e metodológicas do PST e contribuir para essa transição por meio de acompanhamento pedagógico sistemático. Partimos de uma questão de estudo que não se encerra em si mesma, mas que foi constantemente alimentada por novas problemáticas e objetivos emergidos do campo empírico durante a pesquisa: quais são os limites e possibilidades encontrados pelos monitores e coordenadores de núcleo do PST para aplicar as orientações teóricas e metodológicas nos núcleos do programa? Os resultados demonstraram que as principais limitações enfrentadas pelos recursos humanos do convênio da Prefeitura Municipal de Riacho da Cruz para aplicar as orientações do PST são: não formação específica na área de Educação Física ou Esporte; experiências de trabalho com o ensino do esporte anteriores ao trabalho no PST, insuficientes ou inexistentes; fragilidades no processo de capacitação segundo modelo do PST que não possibilitaram mais exemplos de experiências para o ensino do esporte nos núcleos; e fragilidades no formato de acompanhamento pouco assíduo realizado pela Equipe Colaboradora. Sobre as possibilidades para superação desse quadro encontramos, justamente na participação e envolvimento do próprio grupo sujeito em tentar minimizar essas limitações, buscando na proposta de acompanhamento pedagógico por seminários e ciclos de observações das atividades desenvolvidas, uma alternativa importante para a resolução das situaçõesproblemas emergidas nesta pesquisa. Desse modo, o sucesso da proposta desenvolvida nos levou a algumas conclusões, dentre as quais está a de que o sucesso do PST não reside somente na cobrança da especificidade da área ou grau de formação dos monitores e coordenadores de núcleo que lidam com o trabalho pedagógico nos núcleos dos convênios, mas na realização de um acompanhamento mais assíduo das Equipes Colaboradoras aos núcleos, que possibilite maiores momentos de troca de experiências entre as Equipes Colaboradoras do PST e o recursos humanos, inclusive considerando as variantes de contexto, estreitando assim a relação teoria e prática no PST. Por fim, reconhecemos as limitações do nosso estudo, o que abre perspectivas para futuras reformulações, mas esperamos contribuir para a interface estabelecida entre as áreas de Educação Física e Ciências Sociais, ampliando os conhecimentos relativos à prática pedagógica em projetos sociais
Sistema de detecção e isolamento de falhas em sistemas dinâmicos baseado em identificação paramétrica
Resumo:
The present research aims at contributing to the area of detection and diagnosis of failure through the proposal of a new system architecture of detection and isolation of failures (FDI, Fault Detection and Isolation). The proposed architecture presents innovations related to the way the physical values monitored are linked to the FDI system and, as a consequence, the way the failures are detected, isolated and classified. A search for mathematical tools able to satisfy the objectives of the proposed architecture has pointed at the use of the Kalman Filter and its derivatives EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) and UKF (Unscented Kalman Filter). The use of the first one is efficient when the monitored process presents a linear relation among its physical values to be monitored and its out-put. The other two are proficient in case this dynamics is no-linear. After that, a short comparative of features and abilities in the context of failure detection concludes that the UFK system is a better alternative than the EKF one to compose the architecture of the FDI system proposed in case of processes of no-linear dynamics. The results shown in the end of the research refer to the linear and no-linear industrial processes. The efficiency of the proposed architecture may be observed since it has been applied to simulated and real processes. To conclude, the contributions of this thesis are found in the end of the text
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The Predictive Controller has been receiving plenty attention in the last decades, because the need to understand, to analyze, to predict and to control real systems has been quickly growing with the technological and industrial progress. The objective of this thesis is to present a contribution for the development and implementation of Nonlinear Predictive Controllers based on Hammerstein model, as well as to its make properties evaluation. In this case, in the Nonlinear Predictive Controller development the time-step linearization method is used and a compensation term is introduced in order to improve the controller performance. The main motivation of this thesis is the study and stability guarantee for the Nonlinear Predictive Controller based on Hammerstein model. In this case, was used the concepts of sections and Popov Theorem. Simulation results with literature models shows that the proposed approaches are able to control with good performance and to guarantee the systems stability
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This work deals with a mathematical fundament for digital signal processing under point view of interval mathematics. Intend treat the open problem of precision and repesention of data in digital systems, with a intertval version of signals representation. Signals processing is a rich and complex area, therefore, this work makes a cutting with focus in systems linear invariant in the time. A vast literature in the area exists, but, some concepts in interval mathematics need to be redefined or to be elaborated for the construction of a solid theory of interval signal processing. We will construct a basic fundaments for signal processing in the interval version, such as basic properties linearity, stability, causality, a version to intervalar of linear systems e its properties. They will be presented interval versions of the convolution and the Z-transform. Will be made analysis of convergences of systems using interval Z-transform , a essentially interval distance, interval complex numbers , application in a interval filter.
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This thesis proposes the specification and performance analysis of a real-time communication mechanism for IEEE 802.11/11e standard. This approach is called Group Sequential Communication (GSC). The GSC has a better performance for dealing with small data packets when compared to the HCCA mechanism by adopting a decentralized medium access control using a publish/subscribe communication scheme. The main objective of the thesis is the HCCA overhead reduction of the Polling, ACK and QoS Null frames exchanged between the Hybrid Coordinator and the polled stations. The GSC eliminates the polling scheme used by HCCA scheduling algorithm by using a Virtual Token Passing procedure among members of the real-time group to whom a high-priority and sequential access to communication medium is granted. In order to improve the reliability of the mechanism proposed into a noisy channel, it is presented an error recovery scheme called second chance algorithm. This scheme is based on block acknowledgment strategy where there is a possibility of retransmitting when missing real-time messages. Thus, the GSC mechanism maintains the real-time traffic across many IEEE 802.11/11e devices, optimized bandwidth usage and minimal delay variation for data packets in the wireless network. For validation purpose of the communication scheme, the GSC and HCCA mechanisms have been implemented in network simulation software developed in C/C++ and their performance results were compared. The experiments show the efficiency of the GSC mechanism, especially in industrial communication scenarios.
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In this work we use Interval Mathematics to establish interval counterparts for the main tools used in digital signal processing. More specifically, the approach developed here is oriented to signals, systems, sampling, quantization, coding and Fourier transforms. A detailed study for some interval arithmetics which handle with complex numbers is provided; they are: complex interval arithmetic (or rectangular), circular complex arithmetic, and interval arithmetic for polar sectors. This lead us to investigate some properties that are relevant for the development of a theory of interval digital signal processing. It is shown that the sets IR and R(C) endowed with any correct arithmetic is not an algebraic field, meaning that those sets do not behave like real and complex numbers. An alternative to the notion of interval complex width is also provided and the Kulisch- Miranker order is used in order to write complex numbers in the interval form enabling operations on endpoints. The use of interval signals and systems is possible thanks to the representation of complex values into floating point systems. That is, if a number x 2 R is not representable in a floating point system F then it is mapped to an interval [x;x], such that x is the largest number in F which is smaller than x and x is the smallest one in F which is greater than x. This interval representation is the starting point for definitions like interval signals and systems which take real or complex values. It provides the extension for notions like: causality, stability, time invariance, homogeneity, additivity and linearity to interval systems. The process of quantization is extended to its interval counterpart. Thereafter the interval versions for: quantization levels, quantization error and encoded signal are provided. It is shown that the interval levels of quantization represent complex quantization levels and the classical quantization error ranges over the interval quantization error. An estimation for the interval quantization error and an interval version for Z-transform (and hence Fourier transform) is provided. Finally, the results of an Matlab implementation is given
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Most algorithms for state estimation based on the classical model are just adequate for use in transmission networks. Few algorithms were developed specifically for distribution systems, probably because of the little amount of data available in real time. Most overhead feeders possess just current and voltage measurements at the middle voltage bus-bar at the substation. In this way, classical algorithms are of difficult implementation, even considering off-line acquired data as pseudo-measurements. However, the necessity of automating the operation of distribution networks, mainly in regard to the selectivity of protection systems, as well to implement possibilities of load transfer maneuvers, is changing the network planning policy. In this way, some equipments incorporating telemetry and command modules have been installed in order to improve operational features, and so increasing the amount of measurement data available in real-time in the System Operation Center (SOC). This encourages the development of a state estimator model, involving real-time information and pseudo-measurements of loads, that are built from typical power factors and utilization factors (demand factors) of distribution transformers. This work reports about the development of a new state estimation method, specific for radial distribution systems. The main algorithm of the method is based on the power summation load flow. The estimation is carried out piecewise, section by section of the feeder, going from the substation to the terminal nodes. For each section, a measurement model is built, resulting in a nonlinear overdetermined equations set, whose solution is achieved by the Gaussian normal equation. The estimated variables of a section are used as pseudo-measurements for the next section. In general, a measurement set for a generic section consists of pseudo-measurements of power flows and nodal voltages obtained from the previous section or measurements in real-time, if they exist -, besides pseudomeasurements of injected powers for the power summations, whose functions are the load flow equations, assuming that the network can be represented by its single-phase equivalent. The great advantage of the algorithm is its simplicity and low computational effort. Moreover, the algorithm is very efficient, in regard to the accuracy of the estimated values. Besides the power summation state estimator, this work shows how other algorithms could be adapted to provide state estimation of middle voltage substations and networks, namely Schweppes method and an algorithm based on current proportionality, that is usually adopted for network planning tasks. Both estimators were implemented not only as alternatives for the proposed method, but also looking for getting results that give support for its validation. Once in most cases no power measurement is performed at beginning of the feeder and this is required for implementing the power summation estimations method, a new algorithm for estimating the network variables at the middle voltage bus-bar was also developed
Resumo:
The usual programs for load flow calculation were in general developped aiming the simulation of electric energy transmission, subtransmission and distribution systems. However, the mathematical methods and algorithms used by the formulations were based, in majority, just on the characteristics of the transmittion systems, which were the main concern focus of engineers and researchers. Though, the physical characteristics of these systems are quite different from the distribution ones. In the transmission systems, the voltage levels are high and the lines are generally very long. These aspects contribute the capacitive and inductive effects that appear in the system to have a considerable influence in the values of the interest quantities, reason why they should be taken into consideration. Still in the transmission systems, the loads have a macro nature, as for example, cities, neiborhoods, or big industries. These loads are, generally, practically balanced, what reduces the necessity of utilization of three-phase methodology for the load flow calculation. Distribution systems, on the other hand, present different characteristics: the voltage levels are small in comparison to the transmission ones. This almost annul the capacitive effects of the lines. The loads are, in this case, transformers, in whose secondaries are connected small consumers, in a sort of times, mono-phase ones, so that the probability of finding an unbalanced circuit is high. This way, the utilization of three-phase methodologies assumes an important dimension. Besides, equipments like voltage regulators, that use simultaneously the concepts of phase and line voltage in their functioning, need a three-phase methodology, in order to allow the simulation of their real behavior. For the exposed reasons, initially was developped, in the scope of this work, a method for three-phase load flow calculation in order to simulate the steady-state behaviour of distribution systems. Aiming to achieve this goal, the Power Summation Algorithm was used, as a base for developping the three phase method. This algorithm was already widely tested and approved by researchers and engineers in the simulation of radial electric energy distribution systems, mainly for single-phase representation. By our formulation, lines are modeled in three-phase circuits, considering the magnetic coupling between the phases; but the earth effect is considered through the Carson reduction. Its important to point out that, in spite of the loads being normally connected to the transformers secondaries, was considered the hypothesis of existence of star or delta loads connected to the primary circuit. To perform the simulation of voltage regulators, a new model was utilized, allowing the simulation of various types of configurations, according to their real functioning. Finally, was considered the possibility of representation of switches with current measuring in various points of the feeder. The loads are adjusted during the iteractive process, in order to match the current in each switch, converging to the measured value specified by the input data. In a second stage of the work, sensibility parameters were derived taking as base the described load flow, with the objective of suporting further optimization processes. This parameters are found by calculating of the partial derivatives of a variable in respect to another, in general, voltages, losses and reactive powers. After describing the calculation of the sensibility parameters, the Gradient Method was presented, using these parameters to optimize an objective function, that will be defined for each type of study. The first one refers to the reduction of technical losses in a medium voltage feeder, through the installation of capacitor banks; the second one refers to the problem of correction of voltage profile, through the instalation of capacitor banks or voltage regulators. In case of the losses reduction will be considered, as objective function, the sum of the losses in all the parts of the system. To the correction of the voltage profile, the objective function will be the sum of the square voltage deviations in each node, in respect to the rated voltage. In the end of the work, results of application of the described methods in some feeders are presented, aiming to give insight about their performance and acuity
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The present work presents an algorithm proposal, which aims for controlling and improving idle time to be applied in oil production wells equipped with beam pump. The algorithm was totally designed based on existing papers and data acquired from two Potiguar Basin pilot wells. Oil engineering concepts such as submergence, pump off, Basic Sediments and Water (BSW), Inflow Performance Relationship (IPR), reservo ir pressure, inflow pressure, among others, were included into the algorithm through a mathematical treatment developed from a typical well and then extended to the general cases. The optimization will increase the well production potential maximum utilization having the smallest number of pumping unit cycles directly reflecting on operational cost and electricity consumption reduction