The Pay-Off Method as a Tool for Evaluating the Risk and Profitability of Public Real Estate Investments

Real option valuation, in particular the fuzzy pay-off method, has proven to be useful in defining risk and visualizing imprecision of investments in various industry applications. This study examines whether the evaluation of risk and profitability for public real estate investments can be improved by using real option methodology. Firstly, the context of real option valuation in the real estate industry is examined. Further, an empirical case study is performed on 30 real estate investments of a Finnish government enterprise in order to determine whether the presently used investment analysis system can be complemented by the pay-off method. Despite challenges in the application of the pay-off method to the case company’s large investment base, real option valuation is found to create additional value and facilitate more robust risk analysis in public real estate applications.

Lean-projektin kannattavuuden ennalta-arviointi soveltamalla tuottojakauma-menetelmää

Tämän Pro Gradu-tutkielman tavoitteena on muodostaa työkalu Lean-projektin kannattavuuden ennalta-arvioinnin toteuttamiseen soveltamalla tuottojakauma-menetelmää. Lisäksi tutkimus pyrkii selvittämään, minkälaista siihen liittyvää akateemista tutkimusta on aikaisemmin toteutettu sekä mitä haasteita tämänkaltaisen arvion toteuttamiselle on. Tutkimuksen syntymistä on motivoinut Lean-pro-jektien kannattavuuden ennalta-arvioimisen akateemisesta tutkimuksesta tunnistettu tutkimusaukko. Empiirinen tutkimus on toteutettu kvalitatiivisena tapaustutkimuksena, yhteistyössä Lean-projekteihin erikoistuneen konsultointiyrityksen kanssa. Empiiristä tutkimusta on ohjannut sille valittu metodologia, jonka tavoitteena on ollut systemaattisesti muodostaa tutkimuksen tavoitteen mukainen työkalu. Aineistonkeruumenetelmänä on toiminut teemahaastattelu, joka on toteutettu kaksiosaisena. Niiden pohjalta saadut aineistot on analysoitu Grounded theory-menetelmää käyttäen. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että muodostetulla tuottojakauma-menetelmää soveltavalla työkalulla on mahdollista toteuttaa Lean-pro¬jektin kannattavuuden ennalta-arviointi. Tulosten perusteella, sen avulla pystytään myös vastaamaan tutkimuksessa tunnistettuihin haasteisiin, jotka ovat aikaisemmin rajoittaneet tämän arvion toteuttamista. Työkalulla on mahdollista, tutkimuksen perusteella, myös tukea sen yhteistyöyrityksen Lean-projektien myyntiä.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Evaluation of the multicriteria approval method for timber-harvesting group decision support

Abstract

On Commutation and Conjugacy of Rational Languages and the Fixed Point Method

The research on language equations has been active during last decades. Compared to the equations on words the equations on languages are much more difficult to solve. Even very simple equations that are easy to solve for words can be very hard for languages. In this thesis we study two of such equations, namely commutation and conjugacy equations. We study these equations on some limited special cases and compare some of these results to the solutions of corresponding equations on words. For both equations we study the maximal solutions, the centralizer and the conjugator. We present a fixed point method that we can use to search these maximal solutions and analyze the reasons why this method is not successful for all languages. We give also several examples to illustrate the behaviour of this method.

Defining a Performance Measurement System for Technology Marketing Team by Using the Balanced Scorecard Method

This thesis was produced for the Technology Marketing unit at the Nokia Research Center. Technology marketing was a new function at Nokia Research Center, and needed an established framework with the capacity to take into account multiple aspects for measuring the team performance. Technology marketing functions had existed in other parts of Nokia, yet no single method had been agreed upon for measuring their performance. The purpose of this study was to develop a performance measurement system for Nokia Research Center Technology Marketing. The target was that Nokia Research Center Technology Marketing had a framework for separate metrics; including benchmarking for starting level and target values in the future planning (numeric values were kept confidential within the company). As a result of this research, the Balanced Scorecard model of Kaplan and Norton, was chosen for the performance measurement system for Nokia Research Center Technology Marketing. This research selected the indicators, which were utilized in the chosen performance measurement system. Furthermore, performance measurement system was defined to guide the Head of Marketing in managing Nokia Research Center Technology Marketing team. During the research process the team mission, vision, strategy and critical success factors were outlined.

A quantitative view on fuzzy numbers

Since its introduction, fuzzy set theory has become a useful tool in the mathematical modelling of problems in Operations Research and many other fields. The number of applications is growing continuously. In this thesis we investigate a special type of fuzzy set, namely fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy numbers (which will be considered in the thesis as possibility distributions) have been widely used in quantitative analysis in recent decades. In this work two measures of interactivity are defined for fuzzy numbers, the possibilistic correlation and correlation ratio. We focus on both the theoretical and practical applications of these new indices. The approach is based on the level-sets of the fuzzy numbers and on the concept of the joint distribution of marginal possibility distributions. The measures possess similar properties to the corresponding probabilistic correlation and correlation ratio. The connections to real life decision making problems are emphasized focusing on the financial applications. We extend the definitions of possibilistic mean value, variance, covariance and correlation to quasi fuzzy numbers and prove necessary and sufficient conditions for the finiteness of possibilistic mean value and variance. The connection between the concepts of probabilistic and possibilistic correlation is investigated using an exponential distribution. The use of fuzzy numbers in practical applications is demonstrated by the Fuzzy Pay-Off method. This model for real option valuation is based on findings from earlier real option valuation models. We illustrate the use of number of different types of fuzzy numbers and mean value concepts with the method and provide a real life application.

ERP Systems as Investments: Analysing Costs vs. Benefits

An ERP system investment analysis method using a Fuzzy Pay-Off approach for Real Option valuation is examined. It is studied, how the investment can be incrementally adopted and analyzed as a compounding Real Option model. The modeling allows follow-up. IS system development model COCOMO is presented as an example for investment analysis. The thesis presents the usage of Real Options as an alternative for the valuation of an investment. An idea is presented to use a continuous investment follow-up during the investment. This analysis can be performed using Real Options. As a tool for the analysis, the Fuzzy Pay-Off method is presented as an alternative for investment valuation.

Comparing the alternative utilization method for coconut in Nzema, Ghana

There are many opportunities to utilise coconut in Nzema to support farmers. Coconut oil that is mainly used for food preparation in Nzema can be utilized as fuel to support overcoming of the energy crisis in the Ghana. Coconut oil in Nzema is not used in both transportation and electricity generation. A few of the waste husk and shell are mainly used as fuel in homes for heating but greater amount is left to rot or burn the coconut plantation. In addition, some portion of the granulated coconut kernel is sometime used as feed for piggery feed and the rest of the granulated kernel are left as waste on the oil processing site. In this thesis, the author identified alternative utilization of cocoanut, for instance the use of coconut husk and shell for charcoal production, and the use of coconut trunks as construction materials. It is envisaged that exploring these alternatives will not only reduce carbon emission in the country but will also contribute significantly to the sustainability of the local agro-industry.

Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Evaluation and realisation of a market entry method: The entry of a small high technology company into the British construction software markets

Tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia, mikä olisi parhaiten case-yritykselle sopiva menetelmä tulla tekemään kauppaa ulkomaan markkinoille. Kaikki yleiset kansainvälisille markkinoilletulomenetelmät esitetään ja niiden edut ja haitat tuodaan esille. Selvittäessä tehtävänantajayrityksen resurssit, odotukset ja vaatimukset todetaan, että yhteistyössä tehtävä markkinoilletulo on pätevin vaihtoehto. Tämän jälkeen valitaan parhaiten tarkoitukseen sopiva yritys ennalta valitusta yritysvaihtoehtojen ryhmästä ja testataan tämän yrityksen yhteistyösopivuus case-yrityksen kanssa. Yritysten välinen yhteistyösopivuus arvioidaan analysoimalla yritykset haastattelujen avulla ja tutkielmassa esitettyjen teorioiden avulla. Sopivuus todetaan hyväksi, kattaen 71 prosenttia analysoiduista kohdista. Kaksikymmentäyhdeksän prosenttia kohdista todetaan kohdiksi, joissa yritysten välinen yhteisymmärrys ei ole toimeksiantajayrityksen minimivaatimukset täyttävää. Näitä kohtia tullaan käyttämään suunnittelun pohjana kun suunnitellaan jatkoneuvotteluja yhteistyön käynnistämiseksi.

Occlusal and dentofacial characteristics of the deciduous dentition and treatment effects of the eruption guidance appliance in the early mixed dentition

The aim of this investigation was to analyze the dental occlusion in the deciduous dentition, and the effects of orthodontic treatment carried out in the early mixed dentition with the eruption guidance appliance. The deciduous occlusion and craniofacial morphology of 486 children (244 girls and 242 boys) were investigated at the onset of the mixed dentition period (mean age 5.1 years, range 4.0-7.8 years). Treatment in the treatment group and follow-up in the control group were started when the first deciduous incisor was exfoliated (T1) and ended when all permanent incisors and first molars were fully erupted (T2). The mean age of the children was 5.1 years (SD 0.5) at T1 and 8.4 years (SD 0.5) at T2. Treatment was carried out with the eruption guidance appliance. Occlusal changes that took place in 167 children were compared with those of 104 untreated control children. Pre- and post-treatment cephalometric radiographs were taken, and the craniofacial morphology of 115 consecutively treated children was compared with that of 104 control children. The prevalence of malocclusion in the deciduous dentition was 68% or 93% depending on how the cut-off value between the acceptable and non-acceptable occlusal characteristic was defined. The early dentofacial features of children with distal occlusion, large overjet and deepbite differed from those with normal occlusion. However, the skeletal pattern of these three malocclusions showed considerable similarity each being characterized by a retrusive mandible, small maxillo-mandibular difference, convex profile, retrusive lower incisors, and large interincisal angle. In the treatment group, overjet and overbite decreased significantly from T1 to T2. Following treatment, a tooth-to-tooth contact was found in 99% of the treated children but only in 24% of the controls. A Class I molar relationship was observed in 90% of the children in the treatment group, and in 48% in the control group. Good alignment of the incisors was observed in 98% of the treated children, whereas upper crowding was found in 32% and lower crowding in 47% of the controls. A significant difference between the groups was found in the mandibular length, midfacial length and maxillo-mandibular differential. The occlusal correction, brought about by the eruption guidance appliance, was achieved mainly through changes in the dentoalveolar region of the mandible. In addition, the appliance seemed to enhance the growth of the mandible. Treatment in the early mixed dentition using the eruption guidance appliance is an effective method to normalize occlusion and reduce further need of orthodontic treatment. Only few spontaneous corrective changes can be expected without active intervention.

Economic Geographical Analysis of The Finnish Paper Industry

The purpose of this academic economic geographical dissertation is to study and describe how competitiveness in the Finnish paper industry has developed during 2001–2008. During these years, the Finnish paper industry has faced economically challenging times. This dissertation attempts to fill the existing gap between theoretical and empirical discussions concerning economic geographical issues in the paper industry. The main research questions are: How have the supply chain costs and margins developed during 2001–2008? How do sales prices, transportation, and fixed and variable costs correlate with gross margins in a spatial context? The research object for this case study is a typical large Finnish paper mill that exports over 90 % of its production. The economic longitudinal research data were obtained from the case mill’s controlled economic system and, correlation (R2) analysis was used as the main research method. The time series data cover monthly economic and manufacturing observations from the mill from 2001 to 2008. The study reveals the development of prices, costs and transportation in the case mill, and it shows how economic variables correlate with the paper mills’ gross margins in various markets in Europe. The research methods of economic geography offer perspectives that pay attention to the spatial (market) heterogeneity. This type of research has been quite scarce in the research tradition of Finnish economic geography and supply chain management. This case study gives new insight into the research tradition of Finnish economic geography and supply chain management and its applications. As a concrete empirical result, this dissertation states that the competitive advantages of the Finnish paper industry were significantly weakened during 2001–2008 by low paper prices, costly manufacturing and expensive transportation. Statistical analysis expose that, in several important markets, transport costs lower gross margins as much as decreasing paper prices, which was a new finding. Paper companies should continuously pay attention to lowering manufacturing and transporting costs to achieve more profitable economic performance. The location of a mill being far from markets clearly has an economic impact on paper manufacturing, as paper demand is decreasing and oversupply is pressuring paper prices down. Therefore, market and economic forecasting in the paper industry is advantageous at the country and product levels while simultaneously taking into account the economic geographically specific dimensions.

Capital structure of Finnish firms – Estimating the effects of firm characteristics on capital structure

One of the most disputable matters in the theory of finance has been the theory of capital structure. The seminal contributions of Modigliani and Miller (1958, 1963) gave rise to a multitude of studies and debates. Since the initial spark, the financial literature has offered two competing theories of financing decision: the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory. The trade-off theory suggests that firms have an optimal capital structure balancing the benefits and costs of debt. The pecking order theory approaches the firm capital structure from information asymmetry perspective and assumes a hierarchy of financing, with firms using first internal funds, followed by debt and as a last resort equity. This thesis analyses the trade-off and pecking order theories and their predictions on a panel data consisting 78 Finnish firms listed on the OMX Helsinki stock exchange. Estimations are performed for the period 2003–2012. The data is collected from Datastream system and consists of financial statement data. A number of capital structure characteristics are identified: firm size, profitability, firm growth opportunities, risk, asset tangibility and taxes, speed of adjustment and financial deficit. A regression analysis is used to examine the effects of the firm characteristics on capitals structure. The regression models were formed based on the relevant theories. The general capital structure model is estimated with fixed effects estimator. Additionally, dynamic models play an important role in several areas of corporate finance, but with the combination of fixed effects and lagged dependent variables the model estimation is more complicated. A dynamic partial adjustment model is estimated using Arellano and Bond (1991) first-differencing generalized method of moments, the ordinary least squares and fixed effects estimators. The results for Finnish listed firms show support for the predictions of profitability, firm size and non-debt tax shields. However, no conclusive support for the pecking-order theory is found. However, the effect of pecking order cannot be fully ignored and it is concluded that instead of being substitutes the trade-off and pecking order theory appear to complement each other. For the partial adjustment model the results show that Finnish listed firms adjust towards their target capital structure with a speed of 29% a year using book debt ratio.