Combining Advanced Forecasting Methods with System Dynamics - the Case of Finnish Seaports

Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

Defining a Performance Measurement System for Technology Marketing Team by Using the Balanced Scorecard Method

This thesis was produced for the Technology Marketing unit at the Nokia Research Center. Technology marketing was a new function at Nokia Research Center, and needed an established framework with the capacity to take into account multiple aspects for measuring the team performance. Technology marketing functions had existed in other parts of Nokia, yet no single method had been agreed upon for measuring their performance. The purpose of this study was to develop a performance measurement system for Nokia Research Center Technology Marketing. The target was that Nokia Research Center Technology Marketing had a framework for separate metrics; including benchmarking for starting level and target values in the future planning (numeric values were kept confidential within the company). As a result of this research, the Balanced Scorecard model of Kaplan and Norton, was chosen for the performance measurement system for Nokia Research Center Technology Marketing. This research selected the indicators, which were utilized in the chosen performance measurement system. Furthermore, performance measurement system was defined to guide the Head of Marketing in managing Nokia Research Center Technology Marketing team. During the research process the team mission, vision, strategy and critical success factors were outlined.

The Impact of National Innovation System on Entrepreneurial Venture Creation Process

The important role of entrepreneurship in countries’ economic development and overall society well-being is widely recognized by researchers, experts as well as policy makers. Every phase of the process of starting a new business is related to the interaction with at least one player of country innovation system and therefore the efficiency of this interaction may have an influence on the success of whole entrepreneurial process and consequently on the willingness of potential entrepreneurs to engage into this process. The study proposes a System Dynamics model for studying the impact of National Innovation System (NIS) on the entrepreneurial venture creation process. The developed model also takes country population aspect into account and provides results for estimation the effect various demographic tendencies on the process performance. The special impact is made on possible ways to facilitate the development of entrepreneurial framework conditions. Business incubators are seen as one of the effective tool for accomplishing such task. The study also provides the result for estimation of possible impact arising from properly functioned Business Incubators.

Direct-on-line axial flux permanent magnet synchronous generator static and dynamic performance

In distributed energy production, permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSG) are often connected to the grid via frequency converters, such as voltage source line converters. The price of the converter may constitute a large part of the costs of a generating set. Some of the permanent magnet synchronous generators with converters and traditional separately excited synchronous generators couldbe replaced by direct-on-line (DOL) non-controlled PMSGs. Small directly networkconnected generators are likely to have large markets in the area of distributed electric energy generation. Typical prime movers could be windmills, watermills and internal combustion engines. DOL PMSGs could also be applied in island networks, such as ships and oil platforms. Also various back-up power generating systems could be carried out with DOL PMSGs. The benefits would be a lower priceof the generating set and the robustness and easy use of the system. The performance of DOL PMSGs is analyzed. The electricity distribution companies have regulations that constrain the design of the generators being connected to the grid. The general guidelines and recommendations are applied in the analysis. By analyzing the results produced by the simulation model for the permanent magnet machine, the guidelines for efficient damper winding parameters for DOL PMSGs are presented. The simulation model is used to simulate grid connections and load transients. The damper winding parameters are calculated by the finite element method (FEM) and determined from experimental measurements. Three-dimensional finite element analysis (3D FEA) is carried out. The results from the simulation model and 3D FEA are compared with practical measurements from two prototype axial flux permanent magnet generators provided with damper windings. The dimensioning of the damper winding parameters is case specific. The damper winding should be dimensioned based on the moment of inertia of the generating set. It is shown that the damper winding has optimal values to reach synchronous operation in the shortest period of time after transient operation. With optimal dimensioning, interferenceon the grid is minimized.

Building distributed high availability system

Today’s commercial web sites are under heavy user load and they are expected to be operational and available at all times. Distributed system architectures have been developed to provide a scalable and failure tolerant high availability platform for these web based services. The focus on this thesis was to specify and implement resilient and scalable locally distributed high availability system architecture for a web based service. Theory part concentrates on the fundamental characteristics of distributed systems and presents common scalable high availability server architectures that are used in web based services. In the practical part of the thesis the implemented new system architecture is explained. Practical part also includes two different test cases that were done to test the system's performance capacity.

Performance Improvement of Centrifugal Compressor Stage with Pinched Geometry or Vaned Diffuser

Centrifugal compressors are widely used for example in refrigeration processes, the oil and gas industry, superchargers, and waste water treatment. In this work, five different vaneless diffusers and six different vaned diffusers are investigated numerically. The vaneless diffusers vary only by their diffuser width, so that four of the geometries have pinch implemented to them. Pinch means a decrease in the diffuser width. Four of the vaned diffusers have the same vane turning angle and a different number of vanes, and two have different vane turning angles. The flow solver used to solve the flow fields is Finflo, which is a Navier-Stokes solver. All the cases are modeled with the Chien's k – έ- turbulence model, and selected cases are modeled also with the k – ώ-SST turbulence model. All five vaneless diffusers and three vaned diffusers are investigated also experimentally. For each construction, the compressor operating map is measured according to relevant standards. In addition to this, the flow fields before and after the diffuser are measured with static and total pressure, flow angle and total temperature measurements. When comparing the computational results to the measured results, it is evident that the k – ώ-SST turbulence model predicts the flow fields better. The simulation results indicate that it is possible to improve the efficiency with the pinch, and according to the numerical results, the two best geometries are the ones with most pinch at the shroud. These geometries have approximately 4 percentage points higher efficiency than the unpinched vaneless diffusers. The hub pinch does not seem to have any major benefits. In general, the pinches make the flow fields before and after the diffuser more uniform. The pinch also seems to improve the impeller efficiency. This is down to two reasons. The major reason is that the pinch decreases the size of slow flow and possible backflow region located near the shroud after the impeller. Secondly, the pinches decrease the flow velocity in the tip clearance, leading to a smaller tip leakage flow and therefore slightly better impeller efficiency. Also some of the vaned diffusers improve the efficiency, the increment being 1...3 percentage points, when compared to the vaneless unpinched geometry. The measurement results confirm that the pinch is beneficial to the performance of the compressor. The flow fields are more uniform with the pinched cases, and the slow flow regions are smaller. The peak efficiency is approximately 2 percentage points and the design point efficiency approximately 4 percentage points higher with the pinched geometries than with the un- pinched geometry. According to the measurements, the two best geometries are the ones with the most pinch at the shroud, the case with the pinch only at the shroud being slightly better of the two. The vaned diffusers also have better efficiency than the vaneless unpinched geometries. However, the pinched cases have even better efficiencies. The vaned diffusers narrow the operating range considerably, whilst the pinch has no significant effect on the operating range.

Key performance indicators for supplier and assortement evaluation

Tutkimuksen tavoite oli selvittää suorituskyvyn mittaamista, mittareita ja niiden suunnittelua tukku- ja jakeluliiketoiminnassa. Kriittisten menestystekijöiden mittarit auttavat yritystä kohti yhteistä päämäärää. Kriittisten menestystekijöiden mittarit ovat usein yhdistetty strategiseen suunnitteluun ja implementointiin ja niillä on yhtäläisyyksiä monien strategisten työkalujen kun Balanced scorecardin kanssa. Tutkimus ongelma voidaan esittää kysymyksen muodossa. •Mitkä ovat Oriola KD:n pitkänaikavälin tavoitteita tukevat kriittisten menestystekijöiden mittarit (KPIs) toimittajan ja tuotevalikoiman mittaamisessa? Tutkimus on jaettu kirjalliseen ja empiiriseen osaan. Kirjallisuus katsaus käsittelee aikaisempaa tutkimusta strategian, toimitusketjun hallinnan, toimittajan arvioinnin ja erilaisten suorituskyvyn mittaamisjärjestelmien osalta. Empiirinen osuus etenee nykytila-analyysista ehdotettuihin kriittisten menestystekijöiden mittareihin, jotka ovat kehitetty kirjallisuudesta löydetyn mallin avulla. Tutkimuksen lopputuloksena ovat case yrityksen tarpeisiin kehitetyt kriittisten menestystekijöiden mittarit toimittajan ja tuotevalikoiman arvioinnissa.

Environmental inFluences on the Adoption of Open Innovation: Analysis of Structural, Institutional and Cultural Impacts

The concept of open innovation has recently gained widespread attention, and is particularly relevant now as many firms endeavouring to implement open innovation, face different sets of challenges associated with managing it. Prior research on open innovation has focused on the internal processes dealing with open innovation implementation and the organizational changes, already taking place or yet required in companies order to succeed in the global open innovation market. Despite the intensive research on open innovation, the question of what influences its adoption by companies in different contexts has not received much attention in studies. To fill this gap, this thesis contribute to the discussion on open innovation influencing factors by bringing in the perspective of environmental impacts, i.e. gathering data on possible sources of external influences, classifying them and testing their systemic impact through conceptual system dynamics simulation model. The insights from data collection and conceptualization in modelling are used to answer the question of how the external environment affects the adoption of open innovation. The thesis research is presented through five research papers reflecting the method triangulation based study (conducted at initial stage as case study, later as quantitative analysis and finally as system dynamics simulation). This multitude of methods was used to collect the possible external influence factors and to assess their impact (on positive/negative scale rather than numerical). The results obtained throughout the thesis research bring valuable insights into understanding of open innovation influencing factors inside a firm’s operating environment, point out the balance required in the system for successful open innovation performance and discover the existence of tipping point of open innovation success when driven by market dynamics and structures. The practical implications on how firms and policy-makers can leverage environment for their potential benefits are offered in the conclusions.

Performance measurement and management in a collaborative network

This study concerns performance measurement and management in a collaborative network. Collaboration between companies has been increased in recent years due to the turbulent operating environment. The literature shows that there is a need for more comprehensive research on performance measurement in networks and the use of measurement information in their management. This study examines the development process and uses of a performance measurement system supporting performance management in a collaborative network. There are two main research questions: how to design a performance measurement system for a collaborative network and how to manage performance in a collaborative network. The work can be characterised as a qualitative single case study. The empirical data was collected in a Finnish collaborative network, which consists of a leading company and a reseller network. The work is based on five research articles applying various research methods. The research questions are examined at the network level and at the single network partner level. The study contributes to the earlier literature by producing new and deeper understanding of network-level performance measurement and management. A three-step process model is presented to support the performance measurement system design process. The process model has been tested in another collaborative network. The study also examines the factors affecting the process of designing the measurement system. The results show that a participatory development style, network culture, and outside facilitators have a positive effect on the design process. The study increases understanding of how to manage performance in a collaborative network and what kind of uses of performance information can be identified in a collaborative network. The results show that the performance measurement system is an applicable tool to manage the performance of a network. The results reveal that trust and openness increased during the utilisation of the performance measurement system, and operations became more transparent. The study also presents a management model that evaluates the maturity of performance management in a collaborative network. The model is a practical tool that helps to analyse the current stage of the performance management of a collaborative network and to develop it further.

Structural dynamics in the global pulp and paper industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. Planted forests (especially eucalyptus) and recovered paper have quickly increased their importance as raw material for paper and paperboard production. Although advances in information and communication technologies could reduce the demand for communication papers, and the growth of paper consumption has indeed flattened in developed economies, particularly in North America and Western Europe, the consumption is increasing on a global scale. Moreover, the focal point of production and consumption is moving from the Western world to the rapidly growing markets of Southeast Asia. This study analyzes how the so-called megatrends (globalization, technological development, and increasing environmental awareness) affect the pulp and paper industry’s external environment, and seeks reliable ways to incorporate the impact of the megatrends on the models concerning the demand, trade, and use of paper and pulp. The study expands current research in several directions and points of view, for example, by applying and incorporating several quantitative methods and different models. As a result, the thesis makes a significant contribution to better understand and measure the impacts of structural changes on the pulp and paper industry. It also provides some managerial and policy implications.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Designing Digital Filters for Servo Systems

The aim of this work was to select an appropriate digital filter for a servo application and to filter the noise from the measurement devices. Low pass filter attenuates the high frequency noise beyond the specified cut-off frequency. Digital lowpass filters in both IIR and FIR responses were designed and experimentally compared to understand their characteristics from the corresponding step responses of the system. Kaiser Windowing and Equiripple methods were selected for FIR response, whereas Butterworth, Chebyshev, InverseChebyshev and Elliptic methods were designed for IIR case. Limitations in digital filter design for a servo system were analysed. Especially the dynamic influences of each designed filter on the control stabilityof the electrical servo drive were observed. The criterion for the selection ofparameters in designing digital filters for servo systems was studied. Control system dynamics was given significant importance and the use of FIR and IIR responses in different situations were compared to justify the selection of suitableresponse in each case. The software used in the filter design was MatLab/Simulink® and dSPACE's DSP application. A speed controlled Permanent Magnet Linear synchronous Motor was used in the experimental work.

Raportointitietokannan suorituskyvyn parantaminen

Tietokoneiden tallennuskapasiteetin ja sekä tietokoneiden että verkkojen nopeuden kasvaessa myös käyttäjien odotukset kasvavat. Tietoa talletetaan yhä enemmän ja näistä tiedoista laaditaan yhä monimutkaisempia raportteja. Raporttien monimutkaisuuden kasvaessa niiden tarvitseman tiedon keräämiseen kuluva aika ei kuitenkaan saisi oleellisesti kasvaa. Tämän työn tarkoituksena on tutkia ja parantaa kansainvälisen metsäteollisuusyrityksen myynnin ja logistiikan järjestelmän raportointitietokannan tehokkuutta etenkin raporttien tietojen keräämiseen kuluvalla ajalla mitattuna. Työssä keskitytään kartoittamaan nykyisen järjestelmän pullonkauloja ja pyritään parantamaan järjestelmän suorituskykyä. Tulevaisuudessa suorituskykyä tarvitaan kuitenkin lisää, joten työssä tarkastellaan myös nykyisen, yleiskäyttöisen tietokannan, korvaamista erityisesti raportointia varten suunnitellulla tietokannalla. Työn tuloksena järjestelmän raporttien tietojen keräämiseen kuluvaa aikaa pystyttiin pienentämään ja pahimmat pullonkaulat selvittämään. Käyttäjämäärän kasvaessa tietokannan suorituskyvyn rajat tulevat kuitenkin pian vastaan. Tietokanta joudutaan tulevaisuudessa vaihtamaan erityisesti raportointitietokannaksi suunniteltuun.

Toimintajärjestelmän rakentaminen laatu-, ympäristö- sekä työterveys- ja työturvallisuusstandardien vaatimusten mukaisesti

Diplomityön kohdeyritys on Lassila & Tikanoja Oyj:n (L&T) Vantaan jätehuolto -yksikkö.Yrityksen yhtenäiset toimintatavat ovat edellytyksenä toiminnan tehostamiselle,jatkuvalle kehittämiselle ja hallitulle laajentumiselle. Yrityksen toimintajärjestelmä (johtamisjärjestelmä) muodostuu laadun (ISO 9001), ympäristön (ISO 14001) sekä työterveyden ja työturvallisuuden (OHSAS 18001) hallintajärjestelmistä. Integroitu toimintajärjestelmä muodostaa yritykselle tehokkaan ja kokonaisvaltaisen kehittämisen työvälineen.Diplomityön tavoitteena on luoda teoreettinen perusta L&T:n Vantaan jätehuolto -yksikön sertifiointi -projektille. Diplomityön teoriasisältö muodostuu seuraavien asiakokonaisuuksien käsittelystä: kohdeyrityksen liiketoiminta-alan tunnuspiirteet, standardien sisältövaatimukset, toimintajärjestelmä yrityksen johtamisvälineenä sekä suorituskyvyn mittaaminen ja analysointi. Diplomityö kokoaa selkeät esitiedolliset lähtökohdat yksikön sertifiointi -projektille.Diplomityön muodostama teoreettinen perusta saavuttaa varsin onnistuneesti sille asetetut tavoitteet. Diplomityön määrittelemien lähtökohtien pohjalta rakentui yksikön varsinainen toimintajärjestelmä. Diplomityö tulee toimimaanhyvänä tukimateriaalina työn kohdeyritykselle jatkossakin; työstä on helppo tarkastaa ja kerrata toimintajärjestelmään liittyviä asiakokonaisuuksia.