Russian Venture Capital Markets

Tämän työn tarkoituksena on arvioida riskipääomasijoittamisen kehitystä ja kasvua Venäjällä, sekä antaa kuva siihen vaikuttavista tekijöistä. Se myös arvioi Venäjän valtion toimintaa niin säätelijänä, kuin myös itsenäisenä sijoittajana. Saavutetut tulokset perustuvat haastatteluihin ja olemassa olevien tilastojen analysointiin. Vuoden 1998 rupla kriisin jälkeen riskipääomasijoittaminen lähti kasvuun joka on jatkunut tasaisella rauhallisella tahdilla. Alueellisista riskipääomarahastoista on siirrytty myös yksityisrahoitteisiin ja yksityishallinnoituihin rahastoihin omine kohde aloineen ja portfolioineen. Silti markkinat ovat säilyneet kyllästymättöminä. Kuluttajavetoiset toimialat ovat keränneet eniten investointeja talouden ja ostovoiman kasvusta johtuen. Alueellisesti Moskova erottuu sijoituskohteena, muiden suurempien kasvukeskusten seuratessa perässä. Venäjällä on vielä paljon heikkouksia jotka vaikuttavat sen houkuttelevuuteen sijoittajan näkökulmasta. Heikot instituutiot ja lainsäädäntö yhdistettynä riskipääomasijoittamisen luonteeseen tekevät Venäjästä arvaamattoman markkina-alueen. Se kuitenkin tarjoaa menestyville sijoittajille korkeat tuotot. Nähtäväksi jää kuinka valtion toiminta vaikuttaa markkinoiden kehitykseen lyhyellä ja pitkällä tähtäimellä, ja kuinka se onnistuu kehittämään Venäjän yleistä kilpailukykyä globaaleilla markkinoilla.

Return and volatility linkages between the S&P 500 and emerging stock markets in Eastern Europe

The aim of this thesis is to research mean return spillovers as well as volatility spillovers from the S&P 500 stock index in the USA to selected stock markets in the emerging economies in Eastern Europe between 2002 and 2014. The sample period has been divided into smaller subsamples, which enables taking different market conditions as well as the unification of the World’s capital markets during the financial crisis into account. Bivariate VAR(1) models are used to analyze the mean return spillovers while the volatility linkages are analyzed through the use of bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) models. The results show both constant volatility pooling within the S&P 500 as well as some statistically significant spillovers of both return and volatility from the S&P 500 to the Eastern European emerging stock markets. Moreover, some of the results indicate that the volatility spillovers have increased as time has passed, indicating unification of global stock markets.

Portfolion allokointi Euroopan markkinoilla: toimiala- vai maakohtainen strategia?

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää, kumpi on suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta tehokkaampi tapa allokoida portfolio Euroopan alueelle, maa- vai toimialalähestymistapa. Tätä tutkitaan käyttämällä aineistoa vuosilta 1999-2003. Tilanne ennen vuotta 1999 on aikaisempien tutkimusten perusteella melko hyvin selvillä, joten tutkimus antaa tuoretta tietoa siitä, miten poikkeuksellinen tuottohistoria vaikuttaa portfolion allokointiin. Aihetta tutkitaan käyttämällä 16 Euroopan alueen maaindeksiä ja kymmentä toimialaindeksiä. Indeksit ovat logaritmisia nettotuottoindeksejä, ja niistä on laskettu korrelaatiot, keskihajonnat sekä tehokkaat rintamat. Indekseistä on myös muodostettu 11 esimerkkiportfoliota, joiden avulla on analysoitu erilaisten portfolioiden suorituskykyä. Tuloksien mukaan maakohtaisella sijoitusstrategialla on etenkin laskevilla markkinoilla mahdollisuus saavuttaa parempi riski/tuotto-suhde, vaikka sijoitettaisiin pelkästään toimialoihin, joita yleisen käsityksen mukaan kannattaa suosia laskevilla markkinoilla. Toimialasijoittaminen taas tarjoaa hieman parempia mahdollisuuksia portfolion hajautukseen. Hajautuksen hyödyt suomalaiselle sijoittajalle tulivat tutkimuksessa selvästi esiin. Toimialasijoittamisesta on suomalaiselle sijoittajalle erityistä hyötyä hajautuksen kannalta, koska näin voidaan valita toimialoja, joiden paino Suomen markkinaindeksissä on vähäinen.

Tietoteknisten palveluiden tuottaminen strategisena kumppanuutena - case Rajavartiolaitos

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää laajennettujen transaktiokustannustarkastelun avulla tietoteknisten palveluiden hankintaa strategisena kumppanuutena. Tutkimus kuvaa empiirisen esimerkkitapauksen kautta ulkoistuksen kokonaisvaikuttavuutta eli kumppanuuden hyötyjä ja haittoja asiakkaan kannalta tilanteessa, jossa julkisen sektorin tehtävien uudelleenorganisoinnissa ei ole käytettävissä tehokkaita markkinoita. Kumppanuuden kokonaisvaikuttavuuden elementtien merkitys asiakkaalle on asiakkaan ja palveluntuottajan näkökulmista erilaisia. Asiakas pitää transaktiokustannuksia ja byrokratiahyötyjä tärkeinä. Toimittaja taas koros-taa transaktiohyötyjä ja byrokratiakustannuksia.

Financial Slack and Bidding Firms’ Takeover Announcement Stock Returns – an Event Study

Despite the fact that the literature on mergers and acquisitions is extensive, relatively little effort has been made to examine the relationship between the acquiring firms’ financial slack and short-term post-takeover announcement abnormal stock returns. In this study, the case is made that the financial slack of a firm is not only an outcome of past business and financing activities but it also may affect the quality of acquisition decisions. We will hypothesize that the level of financial slack in a firm is negatively associated with the abnormal returns following acquisition announcements because slack reduces managerial discipline over the use of corporate funds and also because it may give rise to managerial self-serving behavior. In this study, financial slack is measured in terms of three financial statements ratios: leverage ratio, cash and equivalents to total assets ratio and free cash flow to total assets ratio. The data used in this paper is collected from two main sources. A list comprising 90 European acquisition announcements is retrieved from Thomson One Banker database. The stock price data and financial statements information for the respective firms is collected using Datastream. Our empirical analysis is two-fold. First, we conduct a two-sample t-test where we find that the most slack-rich firms experience lower abnormal returns than the most slack-poor firms in the event window [-1, +1], significant at 5% risk level. Second, we perform a cross sectional regression for sample firms using three financial statements ratios to explain cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). We find that leverage shows a statistically significant positive relationship with cumulative abnormal returns in event window [-1; +1] (significance 5%). Moreover, cash to total assets ratio showed a weak negative relationship with CAR (significant at 10%) in event window [-1; +1]. We conclude that our hypothesis for the inverse relationship between slack and abnormal returns receives empirical support. Based on the results of the event study we get empirical support for the hypothesis that the capital markets expect the acquisitions undertaken by slack-rich firms to more likely be driven by managerial self-serving behavior and hubris than do those undertaken by slackpoor firms, signaling possible agency problems and behavioral biases.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

Crowdfunding as a new funding alternative for early stage start-ups

Attracting outside capital is a common problem for start-up companies. Capital markets define the funding options for companies and firms which suffer the most from these capital market imperfections are small start-up companies. Therefore it is important to study any new funding model which can offer a new solution to this inefficiency of capital markets. This study explains the traditional funding models for start-ups such as founders, friends & family, banks, business angels and venture capitalist. After giving background to traditional start-up funding this study delves into crowfunding (CF) and introduces it as a new funding method. The objective of the thesis is to answer one broad research question: Why and how should start-up companies use CF as an alternative funding method? To properly delve into this, this question has the following sub-questions: What kind of funding alternatives do start-up companies have? What are the pros and cons of CF compared to other funding options? How can start-ups benefit from CF? This study gives background on the rise of CF and the reasons why this new model is needed. Author will explain the different components of CF such as platforms, crowdfunders and projects. Also benefits and challenges of the crowdfunding model are investigated. As a new funding model CF has had to clear out many obstacles from its way. These are, for example, legal and regulatory issues as well education of crowd investors to understand this new investment option. . Start-up entrepreneurs can gain valuable insight from this study. The author has attempted to form best practices and guidelines of how to operate in the CF environment. This study was conducted by performing expert interviews, collecting data from previous studies and performing a content analysis of successful crowdfunding cases. Main findings from the study were that CF has huge potential in funding entrepreneurial projects. It is still a niche way for funding but growing rapidly. CF is earning its place among traditional funding options and has potential to fund projects which otherwise would struggle to find funding. With CF entrepreneur can tap into geographically diverse audience. It is a powerful validation tool for products and ideas and has the power to bring democratic elements to entrepreneurial funding.

Weak Form Tests of Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from CEE-Countries and Russian Stock Markets

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää Venäjän, Slovakian, Tsekin, Romanian, Bulgarian, Unkarin ja Puolan osakemarkkinoiden heikkojen ehtojen tehokkuutta. Tämä tutkielma on kvantitatiivinen tutkimus ja päiväkohtaiset indeksin sulkemisarvot kerättiin Datastreamin tietokannasta. Data kerättiin pörssien ensimmäisestä kaupankäyntipäivästä aina vuoden 2006 elokuun loppuun saakka. Analysoinnin tehostamiseksi dataa tutkittiin koko aineistolla, sekä kahdella aliperiodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta on testattu neljällä tilastollisella metodilla, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotesti ja epäparametrinen runs-testi. Tavoitteena on myös selvittääesiintyykö kyseisillä markkinoilla viikonpäiväanomalia. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Viikonpäiväanomalia on löydettävissä kaikilta edellä mainituilta osakemarkkinoilta paitsi Tsekin markkinoilta. Merkittävää, positiivista tai negatiivista autokorrelaatiota, on löydettävissä kaikilta osakemarkkinoilta, myös Ljung-Box testi osoittaa kaikkien markkinoiden tehottomuutta täydellä periodilla. Osakemarkkinoiden satunnaiskulku hylätään runs-testin perusteella kaikilta muilta paitsi Slovakian osakemarkkinoilla, ainakin tarkastellessa koko aineistoa tai ensimmäistä aliperiodia. Aineisto ei myöskään ole normaalijakautunut minkään indeksin tai aikajakson kohdalla. Nämä havainnot osoittavat, että kyseessä olevat markkinat eivät ole heikkojen ehtojen mukaan tehokkaita

Towards Inter-organizational Working Capital Management

Working capital is an investment which is tied up into the inventories and accounts receivable and which is released with accounts payable. Due to the current business landscape with tightened financial conditions and finance markets, organizations emphasize efficient working capital management. With efficient working capital management, a company can reduce the need of finance, free up cash, increase profitability, improve liquidity, increase the efficiency of operations, and decrease (financing) costs. From the perspective of an individual company, efficient working capital management means decreasing inventory levels by shortening the cycle time of inventories, decreasing accounts receivable by shortening the trade credit terms and effective collection procedures, and increasing the level of accounts payable by paying the suppliers later. From an inter-organizational perspective, however, working capital should not be sub-optimized by a single company but holistic view to working capital management through the supply chain should be adopted to create value and improve performance together. The purpose of this research is to take academic research as well as practical management towards inter-organizational working capital management. The thesis discusses the benefits as well as mechanisms of working capital management in the inter-organizational context and has two main objectives: (1) to examine the effect of inter-organizational working capital management on performance in the value chain context and (2) to develop models of working capital management for internal as well as inter-organizational value chains. The results of the archival research conducted in the value chain of the pulp and paper industry and the value chain of the automotive industry indicate that companies can increase relative profitability by managing working capital comprehensively by taking into account all three components, and holistically though the value chain. Companies in the value chain benefit from different strategies in working capital management depending on the position of the company in the value chain. This can be taken into account in inter-organizational working capital management. The effects of inter-organizational working capital management actions on the financing costs of working capital were studied via simulations. Simulations also show that the value chain and individual companies benefit from an inter-organizational view to working capital management. Inter-organizational working capital management actions include for example: shortening the cycle time of inventories, reducing product costs, shifting inventories, shortening payment terms, and considering the cost of capital. The thesis also provides solutions for the practical requirements for tools to control working capital. The design science part of the research introduces the adjusted cash conversion cycle (ACCC) model for internal value chains, as well as models for working capital management in the inter-organizational value chain context: the working capital management model (WCMM) and the financial cycle time model (FCTM) designed in corporation and product levels respectively. This research contributes to literature on working capital management and interorganizational accounting. The research gives a holistic, inter-organizational view to the management of working capital. It advances the knowledge in working capital management on operational level, increases knowledge in the recently risen theme of supply chainoriented, collaborative working capital management, combines management accounting research with supply chain management research, and contributes to the demand of practical inter-organizational accounting methods. In addition, the research has strong practical focus as new managerial methods are introduced.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

IFRS and Asymmetrical Information: Empirical Evidence from the Finnish Stock Markets

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää kansainvälisiin tilinpäätösstandardeihin siirtymisen vaikutuksia epäsymmetriseen informaatioon Suomen osake-markkinoilla. Suomalaisten tilinpäätöskäytäntöjen ja kansainvälisten standardien eroja on selvitetty ensin laadullisin menetelmin,jonka jälkeen on tehty asymmetrisen informaation markkinapohjaisiin mittareihinperustuva kvantitatiivinen tutkimus. Yleisiin eroavaisuuksiin liittyvän selvityksen lisäksi on tutkittu erikseen erityisesti standardimuutoksen vaikutusta älylliseen pääomaan liittyvään informaation asymmetriaan. Empiirisessä osiossa älyllisen pääoman epäsuoraksi mitaksi on valittu kehitys- ja tutkimusmenojen suhde taseen loppusummaan. Kuten oletus oli, sekä laadullisen että empiirisen osion tulokset viittaavat siihen, että IFRS:n myötä informaatioympäristö on parantunut. Uudet standardit vaativat laajempaa ja tarkempaa informaation julkaisua liittyen älylliseen pääomaan, mikä ei ole kuitenkaan havaittavissa valituissa mittareissa

Keskisuurten kasvuyritysten johtaminen - tulevaisuuden haasteet ja osaamistarpeet

Suomi tarvitsee enemmän kasvuyrityksiä uudistaakseen talouttaan sekä luodakseen uusia työpaikkoja. Tutkimusten mukaan erityisesti keskisuuret yritykset ovat tärkeitä kansantaloudelle ja niillä on usein suurempi mahdollisuus pitempiaikaiseen kasvuun kuin pienillä yrityksillä. Tutkimuksia keskisuurten kasvuyritysten kasvusta ja erityisesti näiden yritysten johtamisesta on tehty hyvin vähän. Tämän työn tarkoituksena on lisätä ymmärrystä kuinka keskisuuria kasvuyrityksiä voitaisiin johtaa vielä paremmin, tutkimalla mm. kyseisten yritysten johtajien mieltämiä tulevaisuuden haasteita ja osaamistarpeita. Empiirinen osuus toteutettiin kvalitatiivisena ja kvantitatiivisena tutkimuksena. Kansainvälisten kulttuurien tuntemus, ihmisten johtaminen, muuttuvat markkinat ja liiketoimintamallit, kasvavien verkostojen hallinta, aineeton pääoma ja innovaatioympäristöjen luominen ovat asioita, jotka aiheuttavat haasteita ja osaamistarpeita tulevaisuudessa keskisuurten kasvuyritysten johtajien mukaan. Tärkeänä pidettiin myös mm. tiedon luomista, jalostamista ja jakamista.

Tests of International Asset Pricing Models in Scandinavian Stock Markets

This thesis examines whether global, local and exchange risks are priced in Scandinavian countries’ equity markets by using conditional international asset pricing models. The employed international asset pricing models are the world capital asset pricing model, the international asset pricing model augmented with the currency risk, and the partially segmented model augmented with the currency risk. Moreover, this research traces estimated equity risk premiums for the Scandinavian countries. The empirical part of the study is performed using generalized method of moments approach. Monthly observations from February 1994 to June 2007 are used. Investors’ conditional expectations are modeled using several instrumental variables. In order to keep system parsimonious the prices of risk are assumed to be constant whereas expected returns and conditional covariances vary over time. The empirical findings of this thesis suggest that the prices of global and local market risk are priced in the Scandinavian countries. This indicates that the Scandinavian countries are mildly segmented from the global markets. Furthermore, the results show that the exchange risk is priced in the Danish and Swedish stock markets when the partially segmented model is augmented with the currency risk factor.

Strategiamenetelmän hyödyntäminen huonekaluliiketoiminnan kehittämisessä

Strategia on yrityksen toiminnan perusta. Perinteisillä toimialoilla ei välttämättä nähdä tavoitteellisen strategian tarpeellisuutta ja tärkeä strategiasuunnittelu jää toissijaiseksi. Löytämällä erottuva strategia omaa yritys kilpailuedun. Sinisen meren strategia on teoreettinen viitekehys luoda erilaistavaa liiketoimintaa. Strategian avulla voidaan tunnistaa ja luoda strategiaprofiili uudelle liiketoiminnalle jossa kilpailu ei tehnyt toiminnasta liian haavoittuvaista. Tämä nykytilanteen analysointiin ja siitä erilaistumiseen perustuva muutos voi liittyä itse tuotteeseen tai palveluun, sen tuotteistamiseen tai tuotteen jakelutien uudelleenasemointiin. Strategiatyön tarpeellisuus huonekalujen valmistamisessa ja myynnissä on muuttuvassa tilanteessa avainasemassa. Korkea valmistamisen kustannustaso ei mahdollista kilpailua edullisien tuontituotteiden kanssa ja korkeamman hintatason tuotteilla on toisaalta rajattu ostajakunta sisämarkkinoilla. Monelle toimijalle vientityön aloittaminen on riskialtis kustannuserä. Huonekaluteollisuudessa ja –jakeluteissä on ylikapasiteettia suhteessa kannattavaan liiketoimintaan. Erilaistavina markkinatekijöinä on pidetty hintaa molemmissa ääripäissä, laatua ja designiä. Hyvän jakelutien omaavat yritykset ovat hoitaneet valtakunnallisen myynnin karsien pienet toimijat alalta. Valmistuksessa innovatiivisuus perustuu lähinnä tehokkaaseen tuotantotekniikkaan, mikä osaltaan on nostanut investointien tasoa ja toteutuksen mielekkyyttä. Tuotteena huonekalu on kuitenkin teknisiltä ominaisuuksiltaan yleensä matala ja jo pienellä pääomalla on aloitettavissa tuotannollinen toiminta, mutta tällöin ei menestytä välttämättä tuottavuudessa. Uusina tekijöinä kompleksisessa tilanteessa on nähtävissä voimakkaasti tulossa oleva ympäristöarvojen suurempi huomioiminen. Näistä elementeistä voidaan etsiä strategiaprofiilin avulla uusia markkinarajapintoja, joissa kilpailutilanne mahdollistaa kannattavan liiketoiminnan. Työssä tutkitaan strategiamenetelmän hyödyntämismahdollisuutta, sen perusteita ja tarpeellisuutta perinteisen muutosjäykän teollisuudenalan ja kilpailtujen huonekalumarkkinoiden segmentissä. Uuden toimintamallin tarpeen, strategian, ymmärtämiseksi on tiedostettava ympäristössä tapahtuneet muutokset ja kartoitettava nykyinen strategiaprofiili. Tähän liittyen läpikäydään ne seikat jotka ovat aiheuttaneet nykytilanteen ja näin muutostarpeen tässä markkinassa.

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis on the Baltic Stock Markets

The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.