Reflexivity in sovereign debt markets

Finanssi-instrumentin hinta määräytyy sen fundamenttitekijöiden perusteella, eikä päinvastoin. Tämä tutkimus osoittaa, että myös instrumentin hinta voi vaikuttaa fundamenttitekijöihin. Yhteys havainnollistetaan tapaustukimuksella Kreikan velkakriisistä. Hinnan ja fundamenttien välistä yhteyttä arvioidaan ja käänteisen kausaliteetin olemassaolo testataan. Tulokset tukevat ajatusta, jonka mukaan tarvitsemme dynaamisempia valuaatiomenetelmiä, jotka ottavat huomioon myös mahdolliset itseään vahvistavat hintakierteet.

Basel III - vakavaraisuussäännöksen kyky ylläpitää pankkien vakavaraisuutta

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli analysoida Basel III- säännöksen ominaisuuksien ja uudistusten riittävyyttä pankkien vakavaraisuuden ylläpitämiseksi. Lähtökohtana tarkasteltiin säännöksen ominaisuuksien parantavaa vaikutusta pankkien vakavaraisuuteen. Tutkimuksessa käsiteltiin myös ominaisuuksia, joilla on pieni tai heikentävä vaikutus pankkien vakavaraisuuteen. Tutkimus toteutettiin laadullisena tapaustutkimuksena. Tutkimusaineisto koostui kuudesta puolistrukturoidusta teemahaastattelusta. Haastateltavina oli pankkien asiantuntijoita sekä finanssialan asiantuntija. Tulokset osoittavat, että Basel III- säännös pitää sisällään hyviä uudistuksia vakavaraisuuden ylläpitämiseksi. Tärkeimpiä ominaisuuksia ovat pankeilta vaaditun oman pääoman merkittävä laadun ja määrän parantuminen, uusia riskejä huomioivat vaateet sekä pankin likviditeettiä tasapainottava pysyvän varainhankinnan vaatimus. Säännöksessä on myös osa-alueita, jotka vaativat kehittämistä. Säännös ei huomioi velkakriisin aiheuttamaa valtionlainoihin liittyvää riskiä ja syklien sääntely on ongelmallista. Säännöksen kokonaisvaikutus on positiivinen ja pankkikriisien todennäköisyys vähenee. Basel III- säännöksen muutokset eivät aikaansaa kuitenkaan kaikkia vaadittuja rakenteellisia muutoksia finanssisektorin koko-naisriskin vähentämiseksi, joten sääntelyn kehittäminen varmasti jatkuu.

Dynamic Hedging with Credit Default Swaps: Empirical Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This thesis investigates the effectiveness of time-varying hedging during the financial crisis of 2007 and the European Debt Crisis of 2010. In addition, the seven test economies are part of the European Monetary Union and these countries are in different economical states. Time-varying hedge ratio was constructed using conditional variances and correlations, which were created by using multivariate GARCH models. Here we have used three different underlying portfolios: national equity markets, government bond markets and the combination of these two. These underlying portfolios were hedged by using credit default swaps. Empirical part includes the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, which are constructed by using constant and dynamic models. Moreover, almost in every case dynamic models outperform the constant ones in the determination of the hedge ratio. We could not find any statistically significant evidence to support the use of asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. In addition, our findings are in line with prior literature and support the use of time-varying hedge ratio. Finally, we found that in some cases credit default swaps are not suitable instruments for hedging and they act more as a speculative instrument.

Eurokriisi ja euroalueen rakenteelliset ongelmat

Maailmanlaajuinen finanssikriisi on vaikuttanut merkittävällä tavalla euroalueen toimintaan ja tuonut esiin ongelmia sen rakenteessa. Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tunnistaa eurokriisiin johtaneita tekijöitä ja euroalueen keskeisiä rakenteellisia ongelmia. Teoriakehys muodostui optimaalisen valuutta-alueen teoriasta, jota täydennettiin velkaantumiseen, pankkikriiseihin ja vaihtotaseiden epätasapainotiloihin liittyvällä teorialla. Tutkimuksessa hyödynnettiin laaja-alaisesti olemassa olevaa teoreettista ja empiiristä kirjallisuutta sekä eri tietokannoista saatavaa makrodataa. Tulokset kertovat rahoitusmarkkinoiden keskeisestä roolista epätasapainotilojen kehittymisessä sekä rahaunionin puutteellisista mukautumismekanismeista. Institutionaalisen rakenteen osalta euroalueen keskeisiä ongelmia ovat olleet tehokkaan pankkivalvonnan puute sekä viime hetken lainoittajan puuttuminen valtionvelkakirjamarkkinoilla.

Low-Volatility Anomaly in Helsinki Stock Exchange

International research shows that low-volatility stocks have beaten high-volatility stocks in terms of returns for decades on multiple markets. This abbreviation from traditional risk-return framework is known as low-volatility anomaly. This study focuses on explaining the anomaly and finding how strongly it appears in NASDAQ OMX Helsinki stock exchange. Data consists of all listed companies starting from 2001 and ending close to 2015. Methodology follows closely Baker and Haugen (2012) by sorting companies into deciles according to 3-month volatility and then calculating monthly returns for these different volatility groups. Annualized return for the lowest volatility decile is 8.85 %, while highest volatility decile destroys wealth at rate of -19.96 % per annum. Results are parallel also in quintiles that represent larger amount of companies and thus dilute outliers. Observation period captures financial crisis of 2007-2008 and European debt crisis, which embodies as low main index annual return of 1 %, but at the same time proves the success of low-volatility strategy. Low-volatility anomaly is driven by multiple reasons such as leverage constrained trading and managerial incentives which both prompt to invest in risky assets, but behavioral matters also have major weight in maintaining the anomaly.

Crisis modesta in loca quaedam scriptorum theologicorum

Invocatio: D.D.

The determination of EONIA rate: The impact of the financial crisis and the effects of the changes in the monetary policy implementation framework

EONIA is a market based overnight interest rate, whose role as the starting point of the yield curve makes it critical from the perspective of the implementation of European Central Bank´s common monetary policy in the euro area. The financial crisis that started in 2007 had a large impact on the determination mechanism of this interest rate, which is considered as the central bank´s operational target. This thesis examines the monetary policy implementation framework of the European Central Bank and changes made to it. Furthermore, we discuss the development of the recent turmoil in the money market. EONIA rate is modelled by means of a regression equation using variables related to liquidity conditions, refinancing need, auction results and calendar effects. Conditional volatility is captured by an EGARCH model, and autocorrelation is taken into account by employing an autoregressive structure. The results highlight how the tensions in the initial stage of the market turmoil were successfully countered by ECB´s liquidity policy. The subsequent response of EONIA to liquidity conditions under the full allotment liquidity provision procedure adopted after the demise of Lehman Brothers is also established. A clear distinction in the behavior of the interest rate between the sub-periods was evident. In the light of the results obtained, some of the challenges posed by the exit-strategy implementation will be addressed.

Determinants of credit default swap spread, the effect of the financial crisis in the us markets

The purpose of this study is to define what determinants affect the Credit spread. There are two theoretical frameworks to study this: structural models and reduced form models. Structural models indicate that the main determinants are company leverage, volatility and risk-free interest rate, and other market and firm-specific variables. The purpose is to determine which of these theoretical determinants can explain the CDS spread and also how these theoretical determinants are affected by the financial crisis in 2007. The data is collected from 30 companies in the US Markets, mainly S&P Large Cap. The sample time-frame is 31.1.2004 – 31.12.2009. Empirical studies indicate that structural models can explain the CDS spreads well. Also, there were significant differences between bear and bull markets. The main determinants explaining CDS spreads were leverage and volatility. The other determinants were significant, depending on the sample period. However, these other variables did not explain the spread consistently.

Determinants of cash holdings in Finnish industrial sector: measuring the impact of financial crisis 2007- 2010

This thesis studies cash and short term investments to net assets ratio of Finnish industrial companies during financial crisis, and how different firm specific and macro economical variables affect cash and short term investments. The data consists of quarter level interim reports. Regression analysis was used to find out the effects of different variables. Regression models were formed based on previous studies on cash holdings. It was found that firms studied held more cash during financial crisis than before it. Cash and short-term investments acted as substitute of net working capital. Leverage had a positive and significant relationship to cash and short term investment ratio. It was also found out that firms have a target cash and short term investments ratio.

Dialogue in the crisis of representation : realism and antirealism in the context of the conversation between theologians and quantum physicists in Göttingen 1949-1961

The aim of this study is to analyse the content of the interdisciplinary conversations in Göttingen between 1949 and 1961. The task is to compare models for describing reality presented by quantum physicists and theologians. Descriptions of reality indifferent disciplines are conditioned by the development of the concept of reality in philosophy, physics and theology. Our basic problem is stated in the question: How is it possible for the intramental image to match the external object?Cartesian knowledge presupposes clear and distinct ideas in the mind prior to observation resulting in a true correspondence between the observed object and the cogitative observing subject. The Kantian synthesis between rationalism and empiricism emphasises an extended character of representation. The human mind is not a passive receiver of external information, but is actively construing intramental representations of external reality in the epistemological process. Heidegger's aim was to reach a more primordial mode of understanding reality than what is possible in the Cartesian Subject-Object distinction. In Heidegger's philosophy, ontology as being-in-the-world is prior to knowledge concerning being. Ontology can be grasped only in the totality of being (Dasein), not only as an object of reflection and perception. According to Bohr, quantum mechanics introduces an irreducible loss in representation, which classically understood is a deficiency in knowledge. The conflicting aspects (particle and wave pictures) in our comprehension of physical reality, cannot be completely accommodated into an entire and coherent model of reality. What Bohr rejects is not realism, but the classical Einsteinian version of it. By the use of complementary descriptions, Bohr tries to save a fundamentally realistic position. The fundamental question in Barthian theology is the problem of God as an object of theological discourse. Dialectics is Barth¿s way to express knowledge of God avoiding a speculative theology and a human-centred religious self-consciousness. In Barthian theology, the human capacity for knowledge, independently of revelation, is insufficient to comprehend the being of God. Our knowledge of God is real knowledge in revelation and our words are made to correspond with the divine reality in an analogy of faith. The point of the Bultmannian demythologising programme was to claim the real existence of God beyond our faculties. We cannot simply define God as a human ideal of existence or a focus of values. The theological programme of Bultmann emphasised the notion that we can talk meaningfully of God only insofar as we have existential experience of his intervention. Common to all these twentieth century philosophical, physical and theological positions, is a form of anti-Cartesianism. Consequently, in regard to their epistemology, they can be labelled antirealist. This common insight also made it possible to find a common meeting point between the different disciplines. In this study, the different standpoints from all three areas and the conversations in Göttingen are analysed in the frameworkof realism/antirealism. One of the first tasks in the Göttingen conversations was to analyse the nature of the likeness between the complementary structures inquantum physics introduced by Niels Bohr and the dialectical forms in the Barthian doctrine of God. The reaction against epistemological Cartesianism, metaphysics of substance and deterministic description of reality was the common point of departure for theologians and physicists in the Göttingen discussions. In his complementarity, Bohr anticipated the crossing of traditional epistemic boundaries and the generalisation of epistemological strategies by introducing interpretative procedures across various disciplines.