Integration or a Greek tragedy?: How crisis spillovers affect Central and Eastern European States

Tutkielma siitä, miten Euroopan entisten sosialistivaltioiden markkinoiden integroituminen on edistynyt Kreikan ja EMU-alueen kanssa euron käyttöönoton ajalta. Tutkimus vertaa maiden markkinoiden reaktioita Kreikasta ja EMU-alueelta kantautuviin sokkeihin ennen ja jälkeen vuonna 2007 alkanutta kriisiä.

Return and Volatility spillovers among stock and Foreign Exchange Markets: Empirical Evidence from selected African Markets

Return and volatility dynamics in financial markets across the world have recently become important for the purpose of asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk management. However, volatility, which come about as a result of the actions of market participants can help adapt to different situations and perform when it really matters. With recent development and liberalization among financial markets in emerging and frontier markets, the need for how the equity and foreign exchange markets interact and the extent to which return and volatility spillover are spread across countries is of importance to investors and policy makers at large. Financial markets in Africa have received attention leading to investors diversifying into them in times of crisis and contagion effects in developed countries. Regardless of the benefits these markets may offer, investors must be wary of issues such as thin trading, volatility that exists in the equity and currency markets and its related fluctuations. The study employs a VAR-GARCH BEKK model to study the return and volatility dynamics between the stock and foreign exchange sectors and among the equity markets of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. The main findings suggest a higher dependence of own return in the stock markets and a one way return spillover from the currencies to the equity markets except for South Africa which has a weaker interrelation among the two markets. There is a relatively limited integration among the equity markets. Return and volatility spillover is mostly uni-directional except for a bi-directional relationship between the equity markets of Egypt and Tunisia. The study implication still proves a benefit for portfolio managers diversifying in these African equity markets, since they are independent of each other and may not be highly affected by the influx of negative news from elsewhere. However, there is the need to be wary of return and volatility spillover between the equity and currency markets, hence devising better hedging strategies to curb them.

Innovaatio-ohjelmatoiminnan suorituskyvyn mittaus

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on luoda viitekehys yritysten innovaatiotoimintaa ohjelmatoiminnalla tukevan julkisen organisaation suorituskyvyn mittaamiseksi. Tutkimus on luonteeltaan tapaustutkimus ja tutkimusotteena siinä käytetään toiminta-analyyttistä tutkimusotetta. Tutkimuksen empiirinen aineisto kerättiin havainnoimalla, keskusteluilla, haastatteluilla sekä ryhmätyöskentely-menetelmillä. Luodun viitekehyksen mukaan innovaatiotoimintaa ohjelmatoiminnalla tukevan julkisen organisaation tuottama julkinen arvo syntyy pienentämällä innovaatio-toiminnan markkina- ja järjestelmähäiriöitä, joka tapahtuu tarjoamalla rahalista tukea sekä palveluita. Näin innovaatiotoiminnan tuloksellisuus ja positiiviset ulkoisvaikutukset lisääntyvät. Tämä johtaa lopulta talouden kasvamiseen sekä yhteiskunnan ja ympäristön hyvinvointiin. Innovaatiotuella voidaan säädellä myös innovaatiotoiminnan aluetta ja näin luoda arvoa pureutumalla yhteiskunnan ongelmakohtiin. Tämän lisäksi kansalaisille on todennäköisesti arvokasta organisaatiota kohtaan tuntema luottamus, jota kasvattavat luultavasti esimerkiksi resurssien tehokas käyttö, oikeudenmukainen toiminta, asiakkaiden yhden-mukainen kohtelu, todennetut tulokset ja vaikutukset sekä toiminnan läpinäkyvyys. Viitekehyksen pohjalta muodostettiin Ohjelmat-ydinprosessin suorituskyvyn mittaristo. Aluksi kuvattiin ydinprosessin tavoitteet, joita tarkennettiin vaikuttavuusmallilla sekä sidosryhmäanalyysillä. Seuraavaksi muodostettiin ydinprosessille strategiakartta ja tunnistettiin sen kriittiset menestystekijät. Tuloksena syntyi mittaristo, jossa on 84 potentiaalista prosessin suorituskykyä mittaavaa mittaria. Lopuksi mittaristoa tarkasteltiin kokonaisuutena ja todettiin se kohtalaisen hyvin onnistuneeksi.

Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

The Impact of European Macroeconomic News Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets

The purpose of this research is to investigate how CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) stock markets are integrated with Europe as measured by the impact of euro area (EA) scheduled macroeconomic news announcements, which are related to macroeconomic indicators that are commonly used to indicate the direction of the economy. Macroeconomic announcements used in this study can be divided into four categories; (1) prices, (2) real economy, (3) money supply and (4) business climate and consumer confidence. The data set consists of daily market data from CIVETS and scheduled macroeconomic announcements from the EA for the years 2007-2012. The econometric model used in this research is Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH). Empirical results show diverse impacts of macroeconomic news releases and surprises for different categories of news supporting the perception of heterogeneity among CIVETS. The analyses revealed that in general EA macroeconomic news releases and surprises affect stock market volatility in CIVETS and only in some cases asset pricing. In conclusion, all CIVETS stock markets reacted to the incoming EA macroeconomic news suggesting market integration to some extent. Thus, EA should be considered as a possible risk factor when investing in CIVETS.

An interaction framework for deploying the knowledge of diasporas: Using Finland as an example

This study discusses the importance of diasporas’ knowledge with regard to the national competitive advantage of Finland. The purpose of this study is to suggest an interaction framework, which illustrates how diasporas can benefit the host country via intentional knowledge spillovers, with two sub-objectives: to seek which features are crucial for productive interaction between a host government and diasporas, and to scrutinize the modes of interaction currently effective in Finland. The theoretical background of the study consists of literature relating to the concepts of diaspora and knowledge. The empirical research conducted for this study is based on expert interviews. The interview data was collected between September and November 2013. Eight interviews were made; five with representatives of expert organizations, and three with immigrants. Thematic analysis was used to categorize and interpret the interview data. In addition, thematic networks were built to act as a basis of analysis. This study finds that knowledge, especially new combinations of knowledge, is a significant input in innovation. Innovation is found to be the basis of national competitive advantage. Thus the means through which knowledge is transferred are of key importance. Diasporas are found a good source of new knowledge, and thus may aid the innovative process. Host country stance and policy are found to have a major impact on the ability of the host country to benefit from diasporas’ knowledge. As a host country, this study finds Finland to have a very fragmented strategy field and a prejudiced attitude, which currently make it difficult to utilize the potential of diasporas. The interaction framework based on these findings suggests ways in which Finland can improve its national competitive advantage through acquiring the innovative potential of diasporas. Strategy revision and increased promotion are discussed as means towards improved interaction. In addition, the importance of learning is emphasized. The findings of this study enhance understanding of the relationship between the concepts of diaspora and knowledge. In addition, this study ties the relationship to economic benefit. Future research is, however, necessary in order to fully understand the meaning of the relationship, as well as to increase understanding of the generalizability of the interaction framework.

Interdependence of International Stock Markets, European Government Bond Market and Gold Market

This thesis examines the interdependence of international stock markets (the USA, Europe, Japan, emerging markets, and frontier markets), European government bond market, and gold market during the 21st century. Special focus is on the dynamics of the correlations between the markets, as well as on, spillovers in mean returns and volatility. The mean return spillovers are examined on the basis of the bivariate VAR(1) model, whereas the bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model is employed for the analysis of the volatility spillovers. In order to analyze the spillover effects in different market conditions, the full sample period from 2000 to 2013 is divided into the pre-crisis period (2000–2006) and the crisis period (2007–2013). The results indicate an increasing interdependence especially within international stock markets during the periods of financial turbulence, and are thus consistent with the existing literature. Hence, bond and gold markets provide the best diversification benefits for equity investors, particularly during the periods of market turmoil.

Interdependence of Macroeconomics Variables, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility in Latin America

This thesis examines the interdependence of macroeconomic variables, stock market returns and stock market volatility in Latin America between 2000 and 2015. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru were chosen as the sample markets, while inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, oil and gold were chosen as the sample macroeconomic variables. Bivariate VAR (1) model was applied to examine the mean return spillovers between the variables, whereas GARCH (1, 1) – BEKK model was applied to capture the volatility spillovers. The sample was divided into two smaller sub-periods, where the first sub-period covers from 2000 to 2007, and the second sub-period covers from 2007 to 2015. The empirical results report significant shock transmissions and volatility spillovers between inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, gold, oil and the selected markets, which suggests interdependence between the variables.

Return and volatility linkages between the S&P 500 and emerging stock markets in Eastern Europe

The aim of this thesis is to research mean return spillovers as well as volatility spillovers from the S&P 500 stock index in the USA to selected stock markets in the emerging economies in Eastern Europe between 2002 and 2014. The sample period has been divided into smaller subsamples, which enables taking different market conditions as well as the unification of the World’s capital markets during the financial crisis into account. Bivariate VAR(1) models are used to analyze the mean return spillovers while the volatility linkages are analyzed through the use of bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) models. The results show both constant volatility pooling within the S&P 500 as well as some statistically significant spillovers of both return and volatility from the S&P 500 to the Eastern European emerging stock markets. Moreover, some of the results indicate that the volatility spillovers have increased as time has passed, indicating unification of global stock markets.