Consumer perceived risk, risk reduction strategies and transaction intentions in online marketplaces

Even though online commerce has garnered vast academic interest during the recent years, theoretical grounds for consumer behavior online still remains ambiguous. Despite the globally rapid growth of online commerce, only a fraction of Internet browsers end up purchasing goods online. This is argued to be caused by the intangible and distant nature of the Internet, causing overwhelming perceived risks for consumers and negatively affecting transaction intentions. To combat perceived risks, consumers may actively or passively seek to relieve those risks to tolerable level. These risk reduction strategies refer to both institutional mechanisms as well as consumer risk reduction strategies. The objective of this thesis is to provide further understanding upon the relationships between consumer perceived risk, risk reduction strategies and transaction intentions in online marketplaces. To serve the objectives of the present thesis, a quantitative approach was chosen as the method for conducting empirical research. The data was collected with an online survey through discussion board, using a random sample approach. The proposed research model was examined with a set of hierarchical regression analyses. Results revealed several direct relationships as well as moderating interaction effects. The key finding of this thesis is that institutional risk reduction mechanisms significantly contribute to consumer perceived risks. These mechanisms have the potential to reduce perceived risks, and therefore may stimulate transaction intentions. Additionally, it was observed that risk reduction strategies moderate the relationship between intermediary provided risk relievers, consumer perceived risks and transaction intentions. Retailer related risk reduction strategies were also shown to enforce the effectiveness of payment methods; however feedback and monitoring mechanism was shown to have a diminishing effect of perceived risk only when consumers did not rely on product related risk reduction strategies. The present thesis also illustrates the importance of effective information search, as those consumers are more willing to transact as the perceived risks become less significant. For managerial purposes, the importance of well-functioning institutional mechanisms cannot be emphasized enough.

Performance improvement in mediterranean operations using risk management analysis : Case study of Containerships Group Ltd

Emerging markets of Northern Africa and Turkey provide growth opportunities for logistics service companies in the middle of low growth environment of European Union. The purpose of this research is to explore and analyze the risk factors in container shipping industry and third party logistics (3PL) services. The research empirically examined the risk factors, which are related within the interaction between these two parties in emerging markets of Mediterranean area. The previous studies have provided a valuable insight into the operational risks faced by container shipping industries. However, most of these studies have focused on one or several operational risk factors from a single point of view, and no studies have inclusively examined the possible operational risks faced in the container shipping industry from dual perspective of 3PL provider and its customers. A questionnaire has been deployed to collect related data; and the impacts of the risks were then be assessed and ranked using the method of risk mapping. Respondents were located in Turkey, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. Research presents the most important risk factors identified, and compares them between 3PL provider and its customers. The research also provide some risk mitigation strategies for the key risk factors, and tried to figure out a common risk picture, which guides the managers in both sides to have a better decisions and as a result, improve the performance of the container shipping operations. Challenge during project execution time was that customers identified vast amount of more risks than what was the case with logistics service operator.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Toimitusketjun häiriöt ja riskienhallinta valmistustoimintaa harjoittavassa yrityksessä

Tutkielman tavoitteena on tarkastella toimitusketjun riskejä ja riskienhallintamenetelmiä valmistustoimintaa harjoittavan yrityksen näkökulmasta. Kiristynyt maailmanlaajuinen kilpailu sekä toimintaympäristön kansainvälistyminen ovat lisänneet etenkin valmistustoimintaa harjoittavien yritysten toimitusketjuihin kohdistuvien riskitekijöiden määrää. Riskitekijät voivat olla lähtöisin toimitusketjun sisältä tai ulkopuolisesta liiketoimintaympäristöstä. Yrityksen tulee tunnistaa ja arvioida toimitusketjun merkittävimmät riskitekijät sekä niistä mahdollisesti aiheutuvien seurausten vaikutukset. Toimitusketjun riskien lisäksi työssä perehdytään riskienhallinnan merkitykseen sekä erilaisiin hankintatoiminnan riskienhallintamenetelmiin. Riskienhallinnan tarkoitus on löytää yrityksen kannalta oikeat menetelmät kulloisenkin riskitekijän seurausten hallitsemiseksi. Teoriaosuuden jälkeen työn empiriaosuus pyrkii selvittämään kohdeyrityksen toiminnan kannalta merkittävimmät toimitusketjun riskitekijät sekä tutkimaan yrityksen hyödyntämiä riskienhallintamenetelmiä.

Lentopetrolin hinnanmuutoksilta suojautuminen johdannaisilla Case Jetflite Oy

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää, miten lentoyhtiöt, kuten case-yritys Jetflite Oy, voivat hyödyntää johdannaisinstrumentteja suojautuessaan polttoainekustannusten nousulta. Tutkielmassa kootaan tietoa eri lentoyhtiöiden riskienhallintastrategioista ja niiden implementoinnissa käytetyistä johdannaissopimustyypeistä. Tutkielmassa pyritään tuottamaan tietoa case-yrityksen johdolle riskienhallintastrategian luomista varten kartoittamalla toteutuneita polttoainekustannuksia Jetfliten ostolaskuista. Lentoyhtiöt voivat määritellä suojausstrategian, jonka mukaisesti määrättynä ajanjaksona haluttu osuus tulevista polttoainehankinnoista suojataan johdannaissopimuksin muun muassa futuureita, optioita ja swappeja käyttäen. Johdannaisia käytetään sekä lähitulevaisuuden polttoainehankintojen suojauksissa että pitkän aikavälin riskienhallintastrategioita toteutettaessa. Koska polttoainekustannukset ovat lentoyhtiöiden toiminnan kannattavuuden kannalta keskeinen kuluerä, on em. kustannusten nousulta suojautuminen lentoyhtiöille myös strateginen menestystekijä.

Project controlling and risk management in German machine and plant engineering industry

Tutkielman tavoitteena on määritellä projektikontrolloinnin ja - riskijohtamisen roolit ja toiminnot saksalaisissa kone- ja tehdassuunnitteluteollisuusyrityksissä. Tämä on kvalitatiivinen tutkielma, jossa käytetään voimakkaasti kuvailevia metodeita. Materiaali tutkimuksen empiiriseen osaan kerättiin kyselykaavakkeen avulla. Kyselykaavakkeiden tulokset käsiteltiin Microsoft Office Access- ohjelmalla ja analysoitiin Microsoft Office Excel- ohjelmalla ja Pivot table- työkalun avulla. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että asianmukaisessa projektikontrollointi- ja riskijohtamismetodien käytössä ja käyttötiheydessä esiintyy puutteita saksalaisissa kone- ja tehdassuunnitteluteollisuusyrityksissä. Tehostamalla ja keskittymällä enemmän projektikontrollointi- ja riskijohtamismetodeihin ja prosesseihin sekä projektien että yritysten suorituskyky paranisi.

Derivative hedging strategies for bitumen price risk

The objective of the study is to extend the existing hedging literature of the commodity price risks by investigating what kind of hedging strategies can be used in companies using bitumen as raw material in their production. Five different alternative swap hedging strategies in bitumen markets are empirically tested. Strategies tested are full hedge strategy, simple, conservative, and aggressive term structure strategies, and implied volatility strategy. The effectiveness of the alternative strategies is measured by excess returns compared to no hedge strategy. In addition, the downside risk of each strategy is measured with target absolute semi-deviation. Results indicate that any of the tested strategies does not outperform the no hedge strategy in terms of excess returns in all maturities. The best-performing aggressive term structure strategy succeeds to create positive excess returns only in short maturities. However, risk seems to increase hand-in-hand with the excess returns so that the best-performing strategies get the highest risk metrics as well. This implicates that the company willing to gain from favorable price movements must be ready to bear a greater risk. Thus, no superior hedging strategy over the others is found.

Determining, Balancing and Controlling of Pitch and White Pitch at Stora Enso Kabel Production Line 4

Työn ensimmäisenä tarkoituksena oli kartoittaa kiinteä-neste ja neste-neste uuttomenetelmillä pihkan ja valkopihkan määrä Stora Enso Kabelin tuotantolinja 4:llä. Työn kannalta oli myöstärkeää saada selvyys saostumien koostumuksesta. Lopullinen päämäärä oli automatisoida fiksatiivin annostelu uuden, jatkuvatoimisen märänpäänanalysaattorin avulla. Mäntyosuuden kasvattaminen hiokemassassa lisää hydrofobisten partikkeleiden lukumäärää, minkä uskotaan lisäävän saostumariskiä. Työtä varten kehitetty neste-neste uuttomenetelmä, jota ei ole liiemmin paperiteollisuudessa käytetty, voi olla hyvä menetelmä lipofiilisten komponenttien määrän arviointiin tietyssä määrässä massa- tai prosessivesinäytettä. Virtaussytometri-menetelmän avulla tutkittiin pihka- tai valkopihkapartikkeleiden määrää ja kokojakaumaa eri prosessinäytteissä. Virtaussytometri-menetelmällä mitattujen valkopihkapartikkeleiden lukumäärän ja päällystetyn hylyn saostimen suodoksen sameuden välille löytyiselvä korrelaatio. Fiksatiivimäärän vaikutusta päällystetyn hylyn saostimen suodoksen sameuteen tutkittiin koeajojaksolla, jossa fiksatiivin annostelua säädettiin käsin. Käytetyt annosmäärät eivät riittäneet sameuden pitämiseen tasaisena matalalla tasolla.

The Effectiveness of Currency Hedging Strategies. Case: Imatra Boards Business Unit of Stora Enso Corp.

Tutkimus tarkastelee vaihtoehtoisia termiinisuojaustrategioita metsäteollisuuden alan tulosyksikössä. Jälkitestauksen tarkoituksena on arvioida vaihtoehtoisten strategioiden tuloksellisuutta suojata case-yrityksen kassavirtoja seuraavan kolmen arviointikriteerin avulla: yksittäisten vieraan valuutan määräisten kassavirtojen vaihtelu; koko vieraan valuutan määräisen kassavirran vaihtelu; suojausvoitot ja -tappiot. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen viitekehys tarkastelee yrityksen päätöksentekoa, valuuttariskien suojausprosessia sekä esittelee yrityksen vaihtoehtoisia suojausstrategioita. Tutkimuksen empiirinen aineisto pohjautuu case- yrityksen historiallisiin myyntilukuihin ja on kerätty yrityksen tietojärjestelmästä. Muu tutkimuksessa käytetty dataon kerätty eri tietokannoista. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että suojaaminen vähentää kassavirtojen vaihtelua. Suojaamisen taloudelliset tulokset ovat kuitenkin erittäin riippuvaisia valitusta suojausstrategiasta, joka voi johtaa merkittäviin suojausvoittoihin, mutta yhtä hyvin myos merkittäviin tappioihin. Johdon näkemykset ja riskitoleranssi määrittelevät mitä strategiaa yrityksessä tullaan viime kädessä noudattamaan.

Commodity Price Driven Risk Management from Viewpoint of High Grade Steel Alloys

The study of price risk management concerning high grade steel alloys and their components was conducted. This study was focused in metal commodities, of which nickel, chrome and molybdenum were in a central role. Also possible hedging instruments and strategies for referred metals were studied. In the literature part main themes are price formation of Ni, Cr and Mo, the functioning of metal exchanges and main hedging instruments for metal commodities. This section also covers how micro and macro variables may affect metal prices from the viewpoint of short as well as longer time period. The experimental part consists of three sections. In the first part, multiple regression model with seven explanatory variables was constructed to describe price behavior of nickel. Results were compared after this with information created with comparable simple regression model. Additionally, long time mean price reversion of nickel was studied. In the second part, theoretical price of CF8M alloy was studied by using nickel, ferro-chrome and ferro-molybdenum as explanatory variables. In the last section, cross hedging possibilities for illiquid FeCr -metal was studied with five LME futures. Also this section covers new information concerning possible forthcoming molybdenum future contracts as well. The results of this study confirm, that linear regression models which are based on the assumption of market rationality, are not able to reliably describe price development of metals at issue. Models fulfilling assumptions for linear regression may though include useful information of statistical significant variables which have effect on metal prices. According to the experimental part, short futures were found to incorporate the most accurate information concerning the price movements in the future. However, not even 3M futures were able to predict turning point in the market before the faced slump. Cross hedging seemed to be very doubtful risk management strategy for illiquid metals, because correlations coefficients were found to be very sensitive for the chosen time span.

The effectiveness of short-term literacy skills intervention on children at risk of reading and writing difficulties in Tanzania : a study of grade one children with dynamic assessment approach

The aim of the study was to create and evaluate an intervention programme for Tanzanian children from a low-income area who are at risk of reading and writing difficulties. The learning difficulties, including reading and writing difficulties, are likely to be behind many of the common school problems in Tanzania, but they are not well understood, and research is needed. The design of the study included an identification and intervention phase with follow-up. A group based dynamic assessment approach was used in identifying children at risk of difficulties in reading and writing. The same approach was used in the intervention. The study was a randomized experiment with one experimental and two control groups. For the experimental and the control groups, a total of 96 (46 girls and 50 boys) children from grade one were screened out of 301 children from two schools in a low income urban area of Dar-es-Salaam. One third of the children, the experimental group, participated in an intensive training programme in literacy skills for five weeks, six hours per week, aimed at promoting reading and writing ability, while the children in the control groups had a mathematics and art programme. Follow-up was performed five months after the intervention. The intervention programme and the tests were based on the Zambian BASAT (Basic Skill Assessment Tool, Ketonen & Mulenga, 2003), but the content was drawn from the Kiswahili school curriculum in Tanzania. The main components of the training and testing programme were the same, only differing in content. The training process was different from traditional training in Tanzanian schools in that principles of teaching and training in dynamic assessment were followed. Feedback was the cornerstone of the training and the focus was on supporting the children in exploring knowledge and strategies in performing the tasks. The experimental group improved significantly more (p = .000) than the control groups during the intervention from pre-test to follow-up (repeated measures ANOVA). No differences between the control groups were noticed. The effect was significant on all the measures: phonological awareness, reading skills, writing skills and overall literacy skills. A transfer effect on school marks in Kiswahili and English was found. Following a discussion of the results, suggestions for further research and adaptation of the programme are presented.

Risk Parity: A Modern Tool for Diversification

The purpose of this study is to examine how well risk parity works in terms of risk, return and diversification relative to more traditional minimum variance, 1/N and 60/40 portfolios. Risk parity portfolios were constituted of five risk sources; three common asset classes and two alternative beta investment strategies. The three common asset classes were equities, bonds and commodities, and the alternative beta investment strategies were carry trade and trend following. Risk parity portfolios were constructed using five different risk measures of which four were tail risk measures. The risk measures were standard deviation, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, modified Value-at-Risk and modified Expected Shortfall. We studied also how sensitive risk parity is to the choice of risk measure. The hypothesis is that risk parity portfolios provide better return with the same amount of risk and are better diversified than the benchmark portfolios. We used two data sets, monthly and weekly data. The monthly data was from the years 1989-2011 and the weekly data was from the years 2000-2011. Empirical studies showed that risk parity portfolios provide better diversification since the diversification is made at the risk level. Risk based portfolios provided superior return compared to the asset based portfolios. Using tail risk measures in risk parity portfolios do not necessarily provide better hedge from tail events than standard deviation.

Performance Comparison of Behavioral Finance -based Investment Strategies in the Finnish Stock Market 1996-2010

In this thesis traditional investment strategies (value and growth) are compared to modern investment strategies (momentum, contrarian and GARP) in terms of risk, performance and cumulative returns. Strategies are compared during time period reaching from 1996 to 2010 in the Finnish stock market. Used data includes all listed main list stocks, dividends and is adjusted in case of splits, and mergers and acquisitions. Strategies are tested using different holding periods (6, 12 and 36 months) and data is divided into tercile portfolios based on different ranking criteria. Contrarian and growth strategies are the only strategies with improved cumulative returns when longer holding periods are used. Momentum (52-week high price1) and GARP strategies based on short holding period have the best performance and contrarian and growth strategies the worst. Momentum strategies (52-week high price) along with short holding period contrarian strategies (52-week low price2) have the lowest risk. Strategies with the highest risk are both growth strategies and two momentum strategies (52-week low price). The empirical results support the efficiency of momentum, GARP and value strategies. The least efficient strategies are contrarian and growth strategies in terms of risk, performance and cumulative returns. Most strategies outperform the market portfolio in all three measures. 1 Stock ranking criterion (current price/52-week highest price) 2 Stock ranking criterion (current price/52-week lowest price)

Startup IPR strategies: Why should startup companies protect their intellectual property?

This thesis studies intellectual property right (also: IPR) strategies from the perspective of high growth startup companies. Due to technology development and intellectualization of business, large part of companies’ assets are nowadays intangible. At the same time, the importance of protection instruments designed to protect these intangible assets, intellectual property rights, is increasing. Utilization of these instruments, however, requires understanding of the functioning of the IPR system, as well as financial resources. Startup companies aiming for growth need to be able compete with more established companies also in relation to intangible assets, but they might not have the required knowledge ot resources to fully utilize IPRs in their business. This research aims to understand what are the benefits a startup company can have from protecting their IPRs, and how can the company achieve those benefits. Based on a review of previous literature, altogether 11 benefits of IPR registration were recognized. To answer to the research questions, six half-structured interviews were conducted with experts form different fields, all with experience in working with startup companies and IPR issues. The interviews were analyzed using different methods of qualitative data analysis, mainly derived from grounded theory and case study methods. As a result, out of the 11 benefits recognized from earlier literature, 8 were recognized to be relevant for startup companies. The most central benefits were recognized to be linked with the financial lifecycle of the startup company, including increasing credibility of the startup and stimulating an investment. In addition it was noticed, that startup companies are mainly able to utilize these benefits at later stages of their lifecycle. However, to be able to utilize the benefits at later stages, the startup company needs to be aware of the functioning of the IPR system and might need to apply for appropriate protection already early on. As a result of this study, a three-step model was formed to describe different levels of IPR utilization. The first level of the model represents the minimum level of understanding that every startup company should have regarding IPRs. The second level views IPR strategy from a risk management perspective, including securing the minimum protection of the company’s own IPRs, contract management and establishing processes for handling IPR issues. The last stage reflects strategic use of IPRs. At this third stage intellectual property rights have a central role in the startup company’s business, and they are used in the company’s value creation.