Performance Comparison of Behavioral Finance -based Investment Strategies in the Finnish Stock Market 1996-2010

In this thesis traditional investment strategies (value and growth) are compared to modern investment strategies (momentum, contrarian and GARP) in terms of risk, performance and cumulative returns. Strategies are compared during time period reaching from 1996 to 2010 in the Finnish stock market. Used data includes all listed main list stocks, dividends and is adjusted in case of splits, and mergers and acquisitions. Strategies are tested using different holding periods (6, 12 and 36 months) and data is divided into tercile portfolios based on different ranking criteria. Contrarian and growth strategies are the only strategies with improved cumulative returns when longer holding periods are used. Momentum (52-week high price1) and GARP strategies based on short holding period have the best performance and contrarian and growth strategies the worst. Momentum strategies (52-week high price) along with short holding period contrarian strategies (52-week low price2) have the lowest risk. Strategies with the highest risk are both growth strategies and two momentum strategies (52-week low price). The empirical results support the efficiency of momentum, GARP and value strategies. The least efficient strategies are contrarian and growth strategies in terms of risk, performance and cumulative returns. Most strategies outperform the market portfolio in all three measures. 1 Stock ranking criterion (current price/52-week highest price) 2 Stock ranking criterion (current price/52-week lowest price)

Leadership in the mobile smartphone market

The mobile telecommunications industry has been going through an enormous revolution, especially after mid-1990 when smartphones were introduced to the market. As a consequence, the smartphone market’s dynamism is requesting companies to operate differently in the way they do business. After a long period occupying the leader position in the smartphones manufacturers’ rank, Nokia was outperformed by Apple and Samsung during 2011 and since then has been on the third place. Nevertheless, Nokia is battling for regaining the leadership in such a competitive and high-velocity growing market and that is what this research is about. This research covers the competitive and strategic forces that shape dynamic industries whereas the main purpose is to elucidate the main factors that contribute to a company’s above-average performance and ultimately determine its leadership in the mobile smartphone market. Therefore, this exploratory qualitative research was conducted as a desk research, which utilized various secondary sources of data in the knowledge area of strategic management such as theories about competitive advantages and dynamic capabilities of firms, innovation, and strategy. This research is enriched with a case study about Nokia: how the company has been organizing its corporate structure to support the strategies and hence how it has been competing in the smartphone market is analyzed, taking into account many contemporary data sources, including market analysts’ and business experts’ opinions. As a result of the classic literature exploration and the case study assay, a framework for deeper analysis of the competitiveness of firms in dynamic markets was developed. The conclusion that emerged from this research is that the success of a firm results from the interplay of various factors. To regain the leader position in the mobile smartphone market is a challenging task that requires Nokia to reinvent its core strategy for taking charge of the smartphones’ industry transformation through for example the adoption of the open innovation concept. It is imperative that Nokia designs and implement a breakthrough strategy as well as embraces the uncertainty of the smartphone market competition as an opportunity for discontinuous innovation development with the ultimate goal of recovering the leadership.

The Evolution of Securities Lending and Risk Mitigation: A Finnish Market Case Study

Although securities lending is an important function of the financial markets, it has not received that much academic attention. This study examines the evolution of European securities lending and risk management with an emphasis on the development of collateral management, the function responsible for reducing credit risk. The effects of the recent financial instabilities are also considered. The evolution of the Finnish securities lending market is examined in more detail through a case-study. This study can be classified as a constructive qualitative case study. The initial practical knowledge comes from the author's own experience and additional insight and theoretical background is acquired through a literature review. The case study is based on research, semi-structured interviews and a brief analysis of numerical data. The main observation of this study was that securities lending is now recognized as more of an investment management discipline than an operational support function. The recent financial instabilities have resulted in an increased focus on risk and transparency. In securities lending this is directly reflected in collateral management guidelines and procedures. Collateral management has become increasingly technologically developed and automated. Collateral optimization initiatives have been started to make the process more efficient, liquid, and cost effective. Although securities lending is generally an OTC-market with no standard market place, centralized exchange-like models have been introduced. Finnish securities lending has now shifted towards the more common global OTC model. Although the Finnish securities lending industry has developed, and the main laws governing it (tax legislation) have changed, there is still need for development. There are still not many Finnish participants involved and due to legal issues most securities loans are collateralized with cash and not securities (e.g. government bonds).

Strategic alliances as an international entry strategy: Finnish cleantech SMEs and the Indian market

The demand for environmental technologies, also called cleantech, is growing globally but the need is especially high in emerging markets such as India where the rising economy and rapid industrialisation have led to increasing energy needs and environmental degradation. The market is of great potential also for the Finnish cleantech cluster that represents advanced expertise in several fields of environmental technologies. However, most of the Finnish companies in the field are SMEs that face challenges in their internationalisation due to their limited resources. The objective of this study was to estimate, whether strategic alliances could be an efficient entry strategy for Finnish cleantech SMEs entering the Indian market. This was done by studying what are the key factors influencing the international entry mode decision of Finnish cleantech SMEs, what are the major factors affecting the entry of Finnish cleantech SMEs to the Indian market and how do Finnish cleantech SMEs use strategic alliances in their internationalisation process. The study was realised as a qualitative multi-case study through theme interviews of Finnish cleantech SME representatives. The results indicated that Finnish cleantech SMEs prefer to enter international markets through non-equity and collaborative modes of entry. These entry modes are chosen because of the small size and limited resources of companies, but also because they want to protect their innovative technologies from property rights violations. India is an attracting market for Finnish cleantech SMEs mainly because of its size and growth, but insufficient environmental regulation and high import tariffs have hindered entry to the market. Finnish cleantech SMEs commonly use strategic alliances in their internationalisation process but the use is rather one-sided. Most of the formed strategic alliances are low-commitment, international contractual agreement in sales and distribution. Alliance partner selection receives less attention. In the future, providing Finnish cleantech SMEs with international experience and training could help in diversifying the use of strategic alliances and increase their benefits to SME internationalisation.

Yrityksen koko ja book-to-market ilmiöt Yhdysvaltojen osakemarkkinoilla

Tämä kandidaatintutkielma käsittelee yrityksen kokoon ja book-to-market arvoon perustuvia anomalioita Yhdysvaltojen osakemarkkinoilla. Tutkimuksen kohteena on epänormaalien tuottojen saavuttaminen kyseisten anomalioiden kautta erityisesti finanssikriisin aikana. Osakeportfolioiden analysointi tapahtuu pääasiassa Fama-French kolmifaktorimallin avulla.

Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Education export as a form of knowledge transfer : The potential of Finnish education export in Chile

Knowledge transfer is a complex process. Knowledge transfer in the form of exporting education products from one system of education to another is particularly complicated, because each system has been developed in a particular context to meet the requirements seen as relevant at each time. National innovation systems are often seen to form an essential framework within which the development of a country, its economy and level of knowledge are considered and promoted. These systems are orientated towards the future, and as such they also provide a framework for the knowledge transfer related to the development of education. In the best of circumstances they are able to facilitate and boost this transfer both from the viewpoint of the provider and the recipient. The leading thought and the idea of the study is that education export is a form of knowledge transfer, which is illustrated by the existing models included. The purpose of this study is to explore, analyze and describe the factors and phenomena related to education export, and more specifically, those related to the experiences and potential of Finnish education export to Chile. For better understanding, of the multiplicity of the issue involved, the current status of education export between Finland and Chile and he existing efforts within the Finnish innovation network will be outlined as well as new forms of co-operation between Finland and Chile in educational matters explored. Several countries have started to commercialize their education system in order to establish themselves as emerging education exporters. Moreover, the demand for education reform is accurate in many developing countries. This offers a good match between Finland and Chile to be the example countries of the research. The main research findings suggest that there are several business areas in education export. These include degrees in education, training services and education technologies for example The factors that influence education export can be divided into four groups, including academic, cultural, political and economic aspects. Challenges to overcome include the lack of product or services to be sold, lack of market and cultural knowledge of the buyer country, financing and lack of suitable pricing model. National innovation systems could be seen as enabling entities for successful education export. The extensive networks that national innovation systems aim to form, could operate as a basis for joining the forces in selling knowledge as well as receiving knowledge in a constructive way.

The us subprime crisis and stock market integration: evidence from the BRICS

The aim of this study is to examine the level of stock market co-movement in the BRICS countries and three major industrialized countries (Japan, UK and USA). While analyzing the interdependence and integration of markets, two subsets are examined: before (2000 – 2007) and during the global financial crisis (2007-2011). Generally, interdependence across markets is likely to increase during a highly volatile period. This is problematic because if it were true, the main benefit of international diversification would be reduced at times when it is most needed. The results reveal the dominant role of the US financial markets over the examined time period. Empirical studies of this research paper indicate that cross-market linkages have become slightly stronger during the ongoing subprime crisis than before crisis. However, results also show that an investor may obtain some international diversification benefits by investing especially in the BRICS countries despite the fact of unstable economic condition and growing globalization.

Performance characteristic of moving average trading rules in the Finnish stock market

The thesis examines the profitability of DMAC trading rules in the Finnish stock market over the 1996-2012 period. It contributes to the existing technical analysis literature by comparing for the first time the performance of DMAC strategies based on individual stock trading portfolios to the performance of index trading strategies based on the trading on the index (OMX Helsinki 25) that consists of the same stocks. Besides, the market frictions including transaction costs and taxes are taken into account, and the results are reported from both institutional and individual investor’s perspective. Performance characteristic of DMAC rules are evaluated by simulating 19,900 different trading strategies in total for two non- overlapping 8-year sub-periods, and decomposing the full-sample-period performance of DMAC trading strategies into distinct bullish- and bearish-period performances. The results show that the best DMAC rules have predictive power on future price trends, and these rules are able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy. Although the performance of the DMAC strategies is highly dependent on the combination of moving average lengths, the best DMAC rules of the first sub-period have also performed well during the latter sub-period in the case of individual stock trading strategies. According to the results, the outperformance of DMAC trading rules over buy-and-hold strategy is mostly attributed to their superiority during the bearish periods, and particularly, during stock market crashes.

Performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend

Purpose of the study is to evaluate performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend on the performance. Theory of efficient markets states that market prices reflect all available information and that all investors share a common view of future price developments. This view gives little room for the success of active management, but the theory has been disputed – at least the level of efficiency. Behavioral finance has developed theories that identify irrational behavior patterns of investors. For example, investment decisions are not made independent of past market developments. These findings give reason to believe that also the performance of active portfolio management may depend on market developments. Performance of 16 Finnish equity funds is evaluated during the period of 2005 to 2011. In addition two sub periods are constructed, a bull market period and a bear market period. The sub periods are created by joining together the two bull market phases and the two bear market phases of the whole period. This allows for the comparison of the two different market states. Performance of the funds is measured with risk-adjusted performance by Modigliani and Modigliani (1997), abnormal return over the CAPM by Jensen (1968), and market timing by Henriksson and Merton (1981). The results suggested that in average the funds are not able to outperform the market portfolio. However, the underperformance was found to be lower than the management fees in average which suggests that portfolio managers are able to do successful investment decisions to some extent. The study revealed substantial dependence on the market trend for all of the measures. The risk-adjusted performance measure suggested that in bear markets active portfolio managers in average are able to beat the market portfolio but not in bull markets. Jensen´s alpha and the market timing model also showed striking differences between the two market states. The results of these two measures were, however, somewhat problematic and reliable conclusions about the performance could not be drawn.

Capital Structure and Firm Growth: R&D Intensive Companies

The purpose of this study is to examine and explain firm`s growth impact on capital structure decision-making in research and development intensive companies. Many studies claim that R&D has a pivotal impact on capital structure decisions, but corporate finance theories have often failed to explain these observed patterns. As sales growth is an important concept and objective for R&D firms, it is logical to assume that it plays a vital role in capital structure decisions. This study applies nomothetic research approach. The theoretical part employs a formal conceptual analysis in order to develop the propositions that are tested with empirical data. The empirical part consists of the analysis of three companies; the data is obtained from the annual reports over the period 2003 – 2008. The companies operate in IT- or ICT-industry and are publicly listed. The method for analyzing the case data is based on the financial indicators, which are obtained from the financials of the case companies. These economic indicators describe the capital structure and the financial decision-making of the firms. The method relates to the quantitative studies. Yet, this study extends the analysis beyond the indicators. Specifically, this study addresses the question of what is behind the economic indicators, therefore combining aspects of quantitative and qualitative analysis. The firms examined in this study seem to prefer internal finance during growth. However, external finance seems to be a catalyst for sales growth. Firms strongly prefer equity financing. In growth, the use of equity per capital either increases or stays in a constant level. Over the period 2003 – 2008, the firms were often associated to equity related transactions and short-term debt. Short-term debt was used as a substitute of long-term debt and equity. The case firms also adjusted their capital structure – these adjustments were carried out with short-term debt or equity. The case data also provides implications for the growth signal theory that was developed in this study. Based on the econometric indicators, arguments can be made that equity investors are `attracted` to growing R&D firms. This is because growth helps investors perceive the true type of firm. The findings of this study are best explained by the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory. These corporate finance theories are considered as mainstream. Little support can be found to the implications of the signaling theory and market timing theory.

Sovereign Credit Rating Announcements and Equity Market Response: Evidence from the European Markets

This thesis examines the equity market reactions on credit rating announcements. The study covers 12 European countries during the period of 2000-2012. By using an event study methodology and daily collected stock market returns, the impact of the sovereign credit rating announcements to national stock indices is examined. The thesis finds evidence for the rating downgrades having a statistically significant negative effect on the stock markets. This finding is in line with earlier literature (see Brooks, 2004). The paper also discusses whether the changes in the sovereign credit ratings are contagious, anticipated by the market, and persistent. There is some evidence found for the contagion effects in case of downgrades, but not for upgrades. Markets seem to anticipate rating upgrades, but not downgrades. In addition, market´s reaction towards rating announcements seems not to be persistent.