Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Winner-Loser Performance and Macroeconomic Effects during three last Economic Crises in Finnish Stock Market

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate winner-loser performance when financial markets are facing crisis. This is examined through the idea that does the prior loser portfolios outperform the prior winner portfolios during the three major crises: The depression of the 1990s, the IT-Bubble and the Subprime -crisis. Firstly, the winner and loser portfolios superiority is counted by using the cumulative excess returns from the examination period. The portfolios were formed by counting the excess returns and locating them in to the order of superiority. The excess returns are counted by using one year pre-data before the actual examination period. The results of this part did not support the results of De Bondt & Thaler’s (1985) paper. Secondly, it is investigated how the Finnish and the US macroeconomic factors are seen to be affecting the stock market valuation in Finnish Stock Markets during economic crises. This is done to explain better the changes in the successes of the winner-loser performance. The crises included different amount of selected macro factors. Two latest crises involved as well few selected US macro factors. Exclusively the IT-Bubble -crisis had the most statistically significant results with the US factors. Two other crises did not receive statistically significant results. An extra research was produced to study do the US macro factors impact more significantly on Finnish stock exchange after lags. The selected lags were three, six, nine and twelve months. Three and six month lagged US macro factors during the IT-Bubble -crisis improved the results. The extra research did not improve the results of the Subprime -crisis.

VIX as a stock market indicator

The goal of this research was to make an overall sight to VIX and how it can be used as a stock market indicator. Volatility index, often referred as the fear index, measures how much does it cost for investor to protect his/hers S&P 500 position from fluctuations with options. Over the relatively short history of VIX it has succesfull timing coordinator and it has told about the market state adding its own psychological view of the amount of fear and greed.

The Market Behavior of Emerging Stock Markets in Europe

This study investigates the over and underreaction effects in nine emerging stock markets of Europe. Especially, the possible behavioral aspects behind them are an area of interest. These aspects would link them strongly to behavioral finance. Second, our aim is to provide more evidence of the similar or dissimilar behavior in general among these countries. Third, the possibility to gain abnormal returns from these markets is also under investigation. Data from nine emerging stock market indexes in Europe is gathered from January 1, 1998 to January 1, 2008 to find answers to the stated questions. Studies for the over and underreaction effects are done using a variant of the event study methodology which in this case includes two different calculation methods for the expected returns. Studies are performed using 60 day time intervals. The results between the two different methods used are relatively similar concerning the over and underreaction effects. Another of the methods, however, suggests there to be behavioral aspects behind the effects interpreted. On the other hand, the another method does not support this suggestion. However, a conclusion can be made that the factors driving these countries' behavior are related to their geographical location and to the fact that they are emerging countries.

Design and manufacture of a microdistillation column

Aim of this thesis was to design and manufacture a microdistillation column. The literature review part of this thesis covers stainless steels, material processing and basics about engineering design and distillation. The main focus, however, is on the experimental part. Experimental part is divided into five distinct sections: First part is where the device is introduced and separated into three parts. Secondly the device is designed part by part. It consists mostly of detail problem solving, since the first drawings had already been drawn and the critical dimensions decided. Third part is the manufacture, which was not fully completed since the final assembly was left out of this thesis. Fourth part is the test welding for the device, and its analysis. Finally some ideas for further studies are presented. The main goal of this thesis was accomplished. The device only lacks some final assembly but otherwise it is complete. One thing that became clear during the process was how difficult it is to produce small and precise steel parts with conventional manufacturing methods. Internal stresses within steel plates and thermal distortions can easily ruin small steel structures. Designing appropriate welding jigs is an important task for even simple devices. Laser material processing is a promising tool for this kind of steel processing because of the flexibility, good cutting quality and also precise and low heat input when welding. Next step in this project is the final assembly and the actual distillation tests. The tests will be carried out at Helsinki University of Technology.

Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis on the Baltic Stock Markets

The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.

Supply chain costs of a small board lot: sheet cutting and logistics

Succeeding in small board lot (0-20 tons) deliveries, is not always prosperous and failures as well as extra costs compared to standard costs arise. Failure deliveries from converting plants to customer locations tie a lot of unwanted and unexpected costs. Extra costs are handled as quality costs and more precise, internal failure costs. These costs revolve from unsuccessful truck payloads, redundant warehousing or unfavorable routing as examples. Quality costs are becoming more and more important factor in company’s financial decision making. Actual, realized truck payload correlates with the extra costs occurring, so filling the truck payload all get-out well is a key to lower the extra costs. Case company in this study is Corporation A, business segment Boards. Boards have outsourced half of their converting in order to gain better customer service via flexibility, lead time reductions and logistics efficiency improvements. Examination period of the study is first two quarters of year 2008 and deliveries examined are from converters to the customer locations. In Corporation A’s case, the total loss in failure deliveries is hundreds of thousands of Euros during the examination period. So, the logistics goal of getting the right product to the right place and right time for the least cost, does not completely realize.

The intrinsic mechanisms of softwood fiber damage in brown stock fiber line unit operations Lappeenranta 2010

The effects of pulp processing on softwood fiber properties strongly influence the properties of wet and dry paper webs. Pulp strength delivery studies have provided observations that much of the strength potential of long fibered pulp is lost during brown stock fiber line operations where the pulp is merely washed and transferred to the subsequent processing stages. The objective of this work was to study the intrinsic mechanisms which maycause fiber damage in the different unit operations of modern softwood brown stock processing. The work was conducted by studying the effects of industrial machinery on pulp properties with some actions of unit operations simulated in laboratory scale devices under controlled conditions. An optical imaging system was created and used to study the orientation of fibers in the internal flows during pulp fluidization in mixers and the passage of fibers through the screen openings during screening. The qualitative changes in fibers were evaluated with existing and standardized techniques. The results showed that each process stage has its characteristic effects on fiber properties: Pulp washing and mat formation in displacement washers introduced fiber deformations especially if the fibers entering the stage were intact, but it did not decrease the pulp strength properties. However, storage chests and pulp transfer after displacement washers contributed to strength deterioration. Pulp screening proved to be quite gentle, having the potential of slightly evening out fiber deformations from very deformed pulps and vice versa inflicting a marginal increase in the deformation indices if the fibers were previously intact. Pulp mixing in fluidizing industrial mixers did not have detrimental effects on pulp strength and had the potential of slightly evening out the deformations, provided that the intensity of fluidization was high enough to allow fiber orientation with the flow and that the time of mixing was short. The chemical and mechanical actions of oxygen delignification had two distinct effects on pulp properties: chemical treatment clearly reduced pulp strength with and without mechanical treatment, and the mechanical actions of process machinery introduced more conformability to pulp fibers, but did not clearly contribute to a further decrease in pulp strength. The chemical composition of fibers entering the oxygen stage was also found to affect the susceptibility of fibers to damage during oxygen delignification. Fibers with the smallest content of xylan were found to be more prone to irreversibledeformations accompanied with a lower tensile strength of the pulp. Fibers poor in glucomannan exhibited a lower fiber strength while wet after oxygen delignification as compared to the reference pulp. Pulps with the smallest lignin content on the other hand exhibited improved strength properties as compared to the references.

Country Risk and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements: Evidence from Finnish Stock Markets

The objective of this thesis is to examine the market reaction around earnings announcements in Finnish stock markets. The aim is to find out whether the extreme market conditions during the financial crisis are reflected in stock prices as a stronger reaction. In addition to this, the purpose is to investigate how extensively Finnish listed companies report the country segmentation of revenues in their interim reports and whether the country risk is having a significant impact on perceived market reaction. The sample covers all companies listed in Helsinki stock exchange at 1.1.2010 and these companies’ interim reports from the first quarter of 2008 to last quarter of 2009. Final sample consists of 81 companies and 630 firm-quarter observations. The data sample has been divided in two parts, of which country risk sample contains 17 companies and 127 observations and comparison sample covers 66 companies and 503 observations. Research methodologies applied in this thesis are event study and cross-sectional regression analysis. Empirical results indicate that the market reaction occurs mainly during the announcement day and is slightly stronger in case of positive earnings surprises than the reactions observed in previous studies. In case of negative earnings surprises no significant differences can be observed. In case of country risk sample and negative earnings surprise market reaction is negative already in advance of the disclosure contrary to comparison sample. In case of positive surprise no differences can be observed. Country risk variable developed during this study seems to explain only minor part of the market reaction.