Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Performance characteristic of moving average trading rules in the Finnish stock market

The thesis examines the profitability of DMAC trading rules in the Finnish stock market over the 1996-2012 period. It contributes to the existing technical analysis literature by comparing for the first time the performance of DMAC strategies based on individual stock trading portfolios to the performance of index trading strategies based on the trading on the index (OMX Helsinki 25) that consists of the same stocks. Besides, the market frictions including transaction costs and taxes are taken into account, and the results are reported from both institutional and individual investor’s perspective. Performance characteristic of DMAC rules are evaluated by simulating 19,900 different trading strategies in total for two non- overlapping 8-year sub-periods, and decomposing the full-sample-period performance of DMAC trading strategies into distinct bullish- and bearish-period performances. The results show that the best DMAC rules have predictive power on future price trends, and these rules are able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy. Although the performance of the DMAC strategies is highly dependent on the combination of moving average lengths, the best DMAC rules of the first sub-period have also performed well during the latter sub-period in the case of individual stock trading strategies. According to the results, the outperformance of DMAC trading rules over buy-and-hold strategy is mostly attributed to their superiority during the bearish periods, and particularly, during stock market crashes.

Oikosulkumoottoreiden yhteisvarastointipalvelun verkostohyödyt

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tutkia oikosulkumoottoreiden yhteisvarastoinnista saavutettavia verkostohyötyjä asiakas-toimittaja verkostossa. Yleisesti yhteisvarastointi mielletään järkeväksi, mutta siitä saatavat hyödyt ovat usein vaikeita arvioida. Oikosulkumoottorit ovat kalliita, usein kriittisiä yrityksen tuotannon hyödykkeitä, joiden käyttöikä on jopa 30 vuotta. Tämä asettaa erityisvaatimuksia myös moottoreiden varastoinnille. Pitkä käyttöikä alentaa varaston kysyntää, kun taas niiden kriittisyys tuotannolle edellyttää varastointia. Tuotannon menetykset mielletään usein kestämättömän kalliiksi ja tämän vuoksi ajan saatossa lähivarastoihin on kerätty huomattavia moottorivarastoja. Työssä luotiin kunnossapidon, varastoinnin ja talouden teorian pohjalta viitekehys johon tukeutuen rakennettiin yhteisvarastointiverkoston kustannusmalli. Tämän jälkeen laadittiin palvelun piiriin kuuluvilta asiakkailta saaduin varastotiedoin vertailukustannuslaskelma, josta johdettiin yhteisvarastointiverkoston hyödyt. Laskennan tuloksissa havaittiin varastoitavien oikosulkumoottoreiden määrän ja kustannusten väheneminen.

Tehokalastuksen vaikutukset Lappajärvessä : Kalastus elinkeinoksi Lappajärvellä -hankkeen vuosien 2001-2006 seurannan loppuraportti

Lappajärven, Etelä-Pohjanmaan suurimman järven, ekologinen tila on heikentynyt ja se luokitellaan nykyisin tyydyttäväksi. Rehevöityminen, 1990-luvun muikkukato ja yhteiskunnan rakennemuutos ovat vähentäneet kalastajien ja kalansaaliin määrää. Ammattikalastuksen edellytysten parantamiseksi toteutettiin vuosina 2001–2004 ”Kalastus elinkeinoksi Lappajärvellä” – hanke. Hankkeen vaikutuksia kalastoon ja järven ekosysteemiin seurattiin vuosina 2001–2006. Kokonaissaalis vuosina 2001–2004 oli 1655 tonnia (n. 29 kg/ha/vuosi). Vaikka saalistavoitetta (2100 tn) ei täysin saavutettu, oli hankkeella runsaasti myönteisiä, joskin osin vähäisiä tai epävarmoja vaikutuksia järven tilaan ja kalastoon. Kalastajien yksikkösaaliit etenkin kuhan ja isokokoisen ahvenen osalta nousivat hankkeen alussa. Loppuvuosina yksikkösaaliiden kehitys oli osittain ristiriitaista. Ulapan taloudellisesti vähempiarvoinen kalasto, varsinkin kuorekanta harveni selvästi. Muikku puolestaan lisääntyi ja pysyi runsaana. Kuhan ja isokokoisen ahvenen lisääntymistä selittivät pääosin lämpimät kesät ja kuhan onnistuneet istutukset. Petokalat, etenkin kuha, voivat osaltaan säädellä Lappajärven ulapan planktonsyöjäkalojen kantoja ja toisaalta estää särjen siirtymistä ulapalle. Tehokalastuksen loputtua alkoi näkyä merkkejä kalakantojen palautumisesta takaisin kohti lähtötilannetta. Rantavyöhykkeellä hankkeen vaikutukset jäivät selvästi vähäisemmiksi kuin ulapalla. Eläinplankton lisääntyi hieman ylemmissä vesikerroksissa, mutta tilanne alkoi palautua ennalleen hankkeen jälkeen. Sinileväkukinnot vaikuttivat vähentyneen hankkeen aikana, tosin kukintojen voimakas vaihtelu vaikeutti arviointia. Tehokalastus ja vesiensuojelun tehostuminen vähensivät fosforipitoisuuksia, tosin myös vähäsateiset vuodet vaikuttivat vähenemiseen. Pitoisuuksien lasku jatkui hankkeen jälkeen. Hanketta edeltänyt klorofyllipitoisuuksien kasvusuuntaus pysähtyi ja pitoisuustaso vakiintui. Tehokalastus pienensi klorofylli/fosfori-suhdetta ja vähensi sisäistä kuormitusta, mutta vaikutus alkoi heiketä hankkeen loputtua. Typpipitoisuuksiin, veden väriin tai näkösyvyyteen kalastus ei vaikuttanut. Tehokalastuksella voidaan parantaa Lappajärven tilaa, mutta kalastuksen on oltava jatkuvaa. Saalistavoitteeksi voisi riittää n. 20-30 kg/ha vuodessa, mutta samalla on jatkettava ulkoisen kuormituksen vähentämistä. Kalastuksen tulisi kohdistua arvokalojen lisäksi myös vähempiarvoisiin kalalajeihin ja samalla on tuettava petokalakantojen vahvistumista.

The Use of Systematic Value Strategies in Separating the Winners from the Losers: Evidence from the Finnish Markets

This study examines the Magic Formula and ERP5 value strategies in the Finnish stocks markets. Magic Formula ranks stocks based on EV/EBIT and ROA and ERP5 based on EV/EBIT, ROA, P/B and five-year trailing ROA. The purpose of the study is to examine whether the value strategies can be used to generate excess returns over the market index. The data has been collected from the Datastream database for the sample period from May 1997 to May 2010 and consists of the companies listed on the main list of Helsinki Stock Exchange. This study confirms the findings of previous research that value premium exists in the Finnish stock markets and that systematic value strategies can be used to form portfolios that outperform the market index with lower volatility.

Idiosyncratic volatility around information release date

Several papers document idiosyncratic volatility is time-varying and many attempts have been made to reveal whether idiosyncratic risk is priced. This research studies behavior of idiosyncratic volatility around information release dates and also its relation with return after public announcement. The results indicate that when a company discloses specific information to the market, firm’s specific volatility level shifts and short-horizon event-induced volatility vary significantly however, the category to which the announcement belongs is not important in magnitude of change. This event-induced volatility is not small in size and should not be downplayed in event studies. Moreover, this study shows stocks with higher contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility earn lower return after public announcement consistent with “divergence of opinion hypothesis”. While no significant relation is found between EGARCH estimated idiosyncratic volatility and return and also between one-month lagged idiosyncratic volatility and return presumably due to significant jump around public announcement both may provide some signals regarding future idiosyncratic volatility through their correlations with contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility. Finally, the study show that positive relation between return and idiosyncratic volatility based on under-diversification is inadequate to explain all different scenarios and this negative relation after public announcement may provide a useful trading rule.

The Anchoring Bias of Investors and the 52-Week High Momentum Strategy in the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange: Psychological Approach to Market Efficiency

The behavioural finance literature expects systematic and significant deviations from efficiency to persist in securities markets due to behavioural and cognitive biases of investors. These behavioural models attempt to explain the coexistence of intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversals in stock returns based on the systematic violations of rational behaviour of investors. The study investigates the anchoring bias of investors and the profitability of the 52-week momentum strategy (GH henceforward). The relatively highly volatile OMX Helsinki stock exchange is a suitable market for examining the momentum effect, since international investors tend to realise their positions first from the furthest security markets by the time of market turbulence. Empirical data is collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the OMX Nordic website. The objective of the study is to provide a throughout research by formulating a self-financing GH momentum portfolio. First, the seasonality of the strategy is examined by taking the January effect into account and researching abnormal returns in long-term. The results indicate that the GH strategy is subject to significantly negative revenues in January, but the strategy is not prone to reversals in long-term. Then the predictive proxies of momentum returns are investigated in terms of acquisition prices and 52-week high statistics as anchors. The results show that the acquisition prices do not have explanatory power over the GH strategy’s abnormal returns. Finally, the efficacy of the GH strategy is examined after taking transaction costs into account, finding that the robust abnormal returns remain statistically significant despite the transaction costs. As a conclusion, the relative distance between a stock’s current price and its 52-week high statistic explains the profits of momentum investing to a high degree. The results indicate that intermediateterm momentum and long-term reversals are separate phenomena. This presents a challenge to current behavioural theories, which model these aspects of stock returns as subsequent components of how securities markets respond to relevant information.

Finnish stock market reaction to quarterly earnings announcements

This thesis examines the stock market reactions to quarterly earnings announcements. The study covers the OMX Helsinki 25 index companies for the years 2007–2010. The stock market response to quarterly earnings announcements is tested by employing the event study –methodology and daily stock returns of Finnish listed companies. The thesis provides evidence that stock prices react to earnings announcements that exceed or fall below analyst forecasts. The most liquid stocks earn higher returns around positive earnings news than less traded stocks, which supports the evidence from previous studies. This thesis finds evidence for the authorization to sell stocks short reducing the post–earnings announcement drift induced by negative earnings news. In addition, the market’s reaction to earnings announcements seems to quicken during economic turmoil.

Greenhouse gas emissions from peat and biomass-derived fuels, electricity and heat — Estimation of various production chains by using LCA methodology

More discussion is required on how and which types of biomass should be used to achieve a significant reduction in the carbon load released into the atmosphere in the short term. The energy sector is one of the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters and thus its role in climate change mitigation is important. Replacing fossil fuels with biomass has been a simple way to reduce carbon emissions because the carbon bonded to biomass is considered as carbon neutral. With this in mind, this thesis has the following objectives: (1) to study the significance of the different GHG emission sources related to energy production from peat and biomass, (2) to explore opportunities to develop more climate friendly biomass energy options and (3) to discuss the importance of biogenic emissions of biomass systems. The discussion on biogenic carbon and other GHG emissions comprises four case studies of which two consider peat utilization, one forest biomass and one cultivated biomasses. Various different biomass types (peat, pine logs and forest residues, palm oil, rapeseed oil and jatropha oil) are used as examples to demonstrate the importance of biogenic carbon to life cycle GHG emissions. The biogenic carbon emissions of biomass are defined as the difference in the carbon stock between the utilization and the non-utilization scenarios of biomass. Forestry-drained peatlands were studied by using the high emission values of the peatland types in question to discuss the emission reduction potential of the peatlands. The results are presented in terms of global warming potential (GWP) values. Based on the results, the climate impact of the peat production can be reduced by selecting high-emission-level peatlands for peat production. The comparison of the two different types of forest biomass in integrated ethanol production in pulp mill shows that the type of forest biomass impacts the biogenic carbon emissions of biofuel production. The assessment of cultivated biomasses demonstrates that several selections made in the production chain significantly affect the GHG emissions of biofuels. The emissions caused by biofuel can exceed the emissions from fossil-based fuels in the short term if biomass is in part consumed in the process itself and does not end up in the final product. Including biogenic carbon and other land use carbon emissions into the carbon footprint calculations of biofuel reveals the importance of the time frame and of the efficiency of biomass carbon content utilization. As regards the climate impact of biomass energy use, the net impact on carbon stocks (in organic matter of soils and biomass), compared to the impact of the replaced energy source, is the key issue. Promoting renewable biomass regardless of biogenic GHG emissions can increase GHG emissions in the short term and also possibly in the long term.

Factors Affecting Consumer Investment Intentions. Empirical Evidence from Finland

The thesis aims to build a theoretical model to explain consumer investment intentions in stocks and investment funds. The model examines the relationships between subjective investment knowledge, expected sacrifice, expected investment value, compatibility, perceived behavioral control and investment intentions. The data was collected via web-based survey and consisted of 45- to 65-year-old Finnish consumers (n=154). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), structural equation modeling (SEM) and t-tests were applied in analyzing the data. The results suggest that among average household consumers expected investment value consists of three dimensions, namely, economic, functional, and emotional, whereas expected sacrifice consists of effort, financial risk, source risk, and psychological risk. Two structural models were assessed, one for stock investments and one for investment funds. Whereas the models presented somewhat different outcomes, in both models compatibility had an essential role in explaining consumer investment intentions. Compatibility was affected by expected investment value and expected sacrifice. Subjective investment knowledge impacted consumers’ evaluations of the value and sacrifices. The effect of perceived behavioral control on investment intentions was rather small, however significant. Moreover, the results suggest that there are significant differences between consumers with no investment experience and consumers with investment experience in subjective investment knowledge, the dimensions of expected sacrifices and expected investment value, perceived behavioral control, compatibility and investment intentions.

Osinkosuhteen, osinkotuoton ja omavaraisuusasteen sijoitusstrateginen hyödynnettävyys Suomen osakemarkkinoilla

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää osinkosuhteen, osinkotuoton ja omavaraisuusasteen vaikutus osakkeesta saatavaan kokonaistuottoon Suomenosakemarkkinoilla vuosina 2002–2013. Muuttujien kausaliteettisuhde kokonaistuottoon selvitetään regressioanalyysilla. Portfolioanalyysin avulla tutkitaan valittujen tunnuslukujen toimivuutta sijoitusstrategiana. Tutkimuksessa muodostetaan myös osinkosuhteen ja osinkotuoton yhdistelmänä tunnusluku, jolla pyritään maksimoimaan sijoittajan saama tuotto. Empiiriset tulokset osoittivat, että sijoittaja pystyy saavuttamaan ylituottoja hyödyntämällä edellä mainittuja tunnuslukuja osakevalinnassa. Osinkotuoton ja osakkeen kokonaistuoton välillä havaittiin positiivinen lineaarinen korrelaatio. Portfolioanalyysin perusteella sekä omavaraisuusasteen että osinkosuhteen osalta vaikutus sijoittajan saamaan riskisuhteutettuun kokonaistuottoon on ei-lineaarinen. Valittuja tunnuslukuja ja menetelmiä hyödyntäen sijoittaja saa parhaimman riskisuhteutetun tuoton valitsemalla sijoitussalkkuunsa osakkeita, joiden osinkosuhteen arvo sijoittuu toiseksi ylimpään kvartiiliin sekä osakkeita, joiden osinkotuotto on korkea ja omavaraisuusaste on samanaikaisesti alhainen.

Portfolio Selection via Composite Measure Analysis: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market

The aim of this research is to examine the pricing anomalies existing in the U.S. market during 1986 to 2011. The sample of stocks is divided into decile portfolios based on seven individual valuation ratios (E/P, B/P, S/P, EBIT/EV, EVITDA/EV, D/P, and CE/P) and price momentum to investigate the efficiency of individual valuation ratio and their combinations as portfolio formation criteria. This is the first time in financial literature when CE/P is employed as a constituent of composite value measure. The combinations are based on median scaled composite value measures and TOPSIS method. During the sample period value portfolios significantly outperform both the market portfolio and comparable glamour portfolios. The results show the highest return for the value portfolio that was based on the combination of S/P & CE/P ratios. The outcome of this research will increase the understanding on the suitability of different methodologies for portfolio selection. It will help managers to take advantage of the results of different methodologies in order to gain returns above the market.

Evaluating land-use related environmental impacts of biomass value chains for decision-support : Comparison and testing of methodologies proposed for environmental life cycle assessment

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is one of the most established quantitative tools for environmental impact assessment of products. To be able to provide support to environmentally-aware decision makers on environmental impacts of biomass value-chains, the scope of LCA methodology needs to be augmented to cover landuse related environmental impacts. This dissertation focuses on analysing and discussing potential impact assessment methods, conceptual models and environmental indicators that have been proposed to be implemented into the LCA framework for impacts of land use. The applicability of proposed indicators and impact assessment frameworks is tested from practitioners' perspective, especially focusing on forest biomass value chains. The impacts of land use on biodiversity, resource depletion, climate change and other ecosystem services is analysed and discussed and the interplay in between value choices in LCA modelling and the decision-making situations to be supported is critically discussed. It was found out that land use impact indicators are necessary in LCA in highlighting differences in impacts from distinct land use classes. However, many open questions remain on certainty of highlighting actual impacts of land use, especially regarding impacts of managed forest land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services such as water regulation and purification. The climate impact of energy use of boreal stemwood was found to be higher in the short term and lower in the long-term in comparison with fossil fuels that emit identical amount of CO2 in combustion, due to changes implied to forest C stocks. The climate impacts of energy use of boreal stemwood were found to be higher than the previous estimates suggest on forest residues and stumps. The product lifetime was found to have much higher influence on the climate impacts of woodbased value chains than the origin of stemwood either from thinnings or final fellings. Climate neutrality seems to be likely only in the case when almost all the carbon of harvested wood is stored in long-lived wooden products. In the current form, the land use impacts cannot be modelled with a high degree of certainty nor communicated with adequate level of clarity to decision makers. The academia needs to keep on improving the modelling framework, and more importantly, clearly communicate to decision-makers the limited certainty on whether land-use intensive activities can help in meeting the strict mitigation targets we are globally facing.

Yrityksen vaihto-omaisuustavoitteet kunnossapidon näkökulmasta

Varaosavarastoihin kohdistuu entistä enemmän samoja vaihto-omaisuuden hallinnan vaatimuksia kuin raaka-aine ja lopputuotevarastoihin. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, miten kunnossapito-organisaatio voi vastata näihin tavoitteisiin heikentämättä koneiden ja laitteiden teknistä käytettävyyttä ja lisäämättä riskiä tuotannon menetyksille. Kirjallisuudessa on esitetty suuri joukko eri lähtökohdista kehitettyjä analysointimalleja ja varastonpitopolitiikoita. Niiden avulla varaosia voidaan jakaa eri luokkiin ja niiden muodostamaa kokonaisuutta hallita. Teoriaosiossa on suoritettu kirjallisuuskatsaus käytetyimpiin menetelmiin ja tapaustutkimuksiin. Empiiriaosiossa menetelmien soveltuvuutta tutkittiin käytännössä. Tiedonkeruussa käytettiin case-yrityksen dokumentteja ja tietojärjestelmistä saatavaa tietoa, sekä havainnointia ja avoimia haastatteluita. Tutkimuksen tuloksena havaittiin merkittävä kehityspotentiaali, jonka hyödyntämiseksi saatiin määriteltyä tarpeisiin ja tutkimuksen lähtökohtana olleeseen viitekehykseen sopivat analysointi- ja varastonhallintamenetelmät. Varastokokonaisuuden hallintapolitiikka ehdotettiin lisättäväksi osaksi laatujärjestelmää. Sen avulla menetelmien johdonmukainen noudattaminen ja ohjeiden ajan tasalla pitäminen toteutuvat myös käytännössä.

Rahapeliyhtiöiden menestys Euroopan markkinoilla

Tutkielma avartaa Eurooppalaisten rahapeliyhtiöiden menestymistä vuosien 2001 ja 2014 välillä verraten menestymistä muihin Sin stocks yrityksiin sekä Euro Stoxx 50 indeksiin. Teoriaosuus keskustelee epäeettisiin yrityksiin kohdistuvista havainnoista sekä rahapelaamisen luonteesta pyrkien esittämään havaintoja, jotka vaikuttavat rahapeliyhtiöiden ja epäeettisten yritysten menestymiseen. Menestymistä tarkastellaan kolmen menestysmittarin: Sharpen ja Treynorin luvun sekä Jensenin alfan avulla.