Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

The Use of Systematic Value Strategies in Separating the Winners from the Losers: Evidence from the Finnish Markets

This study examines the Magic Formula and ERP5 value strategies in the Finnish stocks markets. Magic Formula ranks stocks based on EV/EBIT and ROA and ERP5 based on EV/EBIT, ROA, P/B and five-year trailing ROA. The purpose of the study is to examine whether the value strategies can be used to generate excess returns over the market index. The data has been collected from the Datastream database for the sample period from May 1997 to May 2010 and consists of the companies listed on the main list of Helsinki Stock Exchange. This study confirms the findings of previous research that value premium exists in the Finnish stock markets and that systematic value strategies can be used to form portfolios that outperform the market index with lower volatility.

Integration of learning supportive applications into the development of the e-portfolio construction process

The portfolio as a means of demonstrating personal skills has lately been gaining prominence among technology students. This is partially due to the introduction of electronic portfolios, or e-portfolios. As platforms for e-portfolio management with different approaches have been introduced, the learning cycle, traditional portfolio pedagogy, and learner centricity have sometimes been forgotten, and as a result, the tools have been used for the most part as data depositories. The purpose of this thesis is to show how the construction of e-portfolios of IT students can be supported by institutions through the usage of different tools that relate to study advising, teaching, and learning. The construction process is presented as a cycle based on learning theories. Actions related to the various phases of the e-portfolio construction process are supported by the implementation of software applications. To maximize learner-centricity and minimize the intervention of the institution, the evaluated and controlled actions for these practices can be separated from the e-portfolios, leaving the construction of the e-portfolio to students. The main contributions of this thesis are the implemented applications, which can be considered to support the e-portfolio construction by assisting in planning, organizing, and reflecting activities. Eventually, this supports the students in their construction of better and more extensive e-portfolios. The implemented tools include 1) JobSkillSearcher to help students’ recognition of the demands of the ICT industry regarding skills, 2) WebTUTOR to support students’ personal study planning, 3) Learning Styles to determine students' learning styles, and 4) MyPeerReview to provide a platform on which to carry out anonymous peer review processes in courses. The most visible outcome concerning the e-portfolio is its representation, meaning that one can use it to demonstrate personal achievements at the time of seeking a job and gaining employment. Testing the tools and the selected open-source e-portfolio application indicates that the degree of richness of e-portfolio content can be increased by using the implemented applications.

The Use of Data Envelopment Analysis as Equity Portfolio Selection Criterion in the Finnish Stock Market

This thesis examines the application of data envelopment analysis as an equity portfolio selection criterion in the Finnish stock market during period 2001-2011. A sample of publicly traded firms in the Helsinki Stock Exchange is examined in this thesis. The sample covers the majority of the publicly traded firms in the Helsinki Stock Exchange. Data envelopment analysis is used to determine the efficiency of firms using a set of input and output financial parameters. The set of financial parameters consist of asset utilization, liquidity, capital structure, growth, valuation and profitability measures. The firms are divided into artificial industry categories, because of the industry-specific nature of the input and output parameters. Comparable portfolios are formed inside the industry category according to the efficiency scores given by the DEA and the performance of the portfolios is evaluated with several measures. The empirical evidence of this thesis suggests that with certain limitations, data envelopment analysis can successfully be used as portfolio selection criterion in the Finnish stock market when the portfolios are rebalanced at annual frequency according to the efficiency scores given by the data envelopment analysis. However, when the portfolios were rebalanced every two or three years, the results are mixed and inconclusive.

Portfoliot palveluiden hankinnoissa

Hankintoja on luokiteltu portfolioiden avulla vuosikymmenien ajan. Perinteisesti portfoliot eivät ole tehneet suurta eroa sen suhteen luokitellaanko tavaroita vai palveluita. Hankintoihin keskittynyt kirjallisuus on kuitenkin viime vuosina alkanut korostaa palveluiden erityispiirteitä hankinnoissa. Tutkielman tarkoituksena oli tutkia palveluiden hankintojen keskeisiä piirteitä perehtymällä case-yrityksen hankintoihin. Lisäksi tutkittiin millaisia palveluita case-yritys ostaa ja kuinka palveluita voidaan luokitella portfolion avulla. Tutkielman empiirinen osa suoritettiin laadullisena tutkimuksena. Yrityksen hankintoihin liittyvää aineistoa kerättiin haastatteluiden avulla. Portfolion luokittelun perustana käytetyt mittarit kerättiin yrityksen hankintoihin liittyvästä dokumentaatiosta. Tutkielman lopputuloksena rakennettiin portfoliomalli tietojärjestelmäpalveluiden hankintoja varten.

Assessment of Young Learners’ English Proficiency in Bilingual Content Instruction CLIL

This applied linguistic study in the field of second language acquisition investigated the assessment practices of class teachers as well as the challenges and visions of language assessment in bilingual content instruction (CLIL) at primary level in Finnish basic education. Furthermore, pupils’ and their parents’ perceptions of language assessment and LangPerform computer simulations as an alternative, modern assessment method in CLIL contexts were examined. The study was conducted for descriptive and developmental purposes in three phases: 1) a CLIL assessment survey; 2) simulation 1; and 3) simulation 2. All phases had a varying number of participants. The population of this mixed methods study were CLIL class teachers, their pupils and the pupils’ parents. The sampling was multi-staged and based on probability and random sampling. The data were triangulated. Altogether 42 CLIL class teachers nationwide, 109 pupils from the 3rd, 4th and 5th grade as well as 99 parents from two research schools in South-Western Finland participated in the CLIL assessment survey followed by an audio-recorded theme interview of volunteers (10 teachers, 20 pupils and 7 parents). The simulation experimentations 1 and 2 produced 146 pupil and 39 parental questionnaires as well as video interviews of volunteered pupils. The data were analysed both quantitatively using percentages and numerical frequencies and qualitatively employing thematic content analysis. Based on the data, language assessment in primary CLIL is not an established practice. It largely appears to be infrequent, incidental, implicit and based on impressions rather than evidence or the curriculum. The most used assessment methods were teacher observation, bilingual tests and dialogic interaction, and the least used were portfolios, simulations and peer assessment. Although language assessment was generally perceived as important by teachers, a fifth of them did not gather assessment information systematically, and 38% scarcely gave linguistic feedback to pupils. Both pupils and parents wished to receive more information on CLIL language issues; 91% of pupils claimed to receive feedback rarely or occasionally, and 63% of them wished to get more information on their linguistic coping in CLIL subjects. Of the parents, 76% wished to receive more information on the English proficiency of their children and their linguistic development. This may be a response to indirect feedback practices identified in this study. There are several challenges related to assessment; the most notable is the lack of a CLIL curriculum, language objectives and common ground principles of assessment. Three diverse approaches to language in CLIL that appear to affect teachers’ views on language assessment were identified: instrumental (language as a tool), dual (language as a tool and object of learning) and eclectic (miscellaneous views, e.g. affective factors prioritised). LangPerform computer simulations seem to be perceived as an appropriate alternative assessment method in CLIL. It is strongly recommended that the fundamentals for assessment (curricula and language objectives) and a mutual assessment scheme should be determined and stakeholders’ knowledge base of CLIL strengthened. The principles of adequate assessment in primary CLIL are identified as well as several appropriate assessment methods suggested.

Portfolio Selection via Composite Measure Analysis: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market

The aim of this research is to examine the pricing anomalies existing in the U.S. market during 1986 to 2011. The sample of stocks is divided into decile portfolios based on seven individual valuation ratios (E/P, B/P, S/P, EBIT/EV, EVITDA/EV, D/P, and CE/P) and price momentum to investigate the efficiency of individual valuation ratio and their combinations as portfolio formation criteria. This is the first time in financial literature when CE/P is employed as a constituent of composite value measure. The combinations are based on median scaled composite value measures and TOPSIS method. During the sample period value portfolios significantly outperform both the market portfolio and comparable glamour portfolios. The results show the highest return for the value portfolio that was based on the combination of S/P & CE/P ratios. The outcome of this research will increase the understanding on the suitability of different methodologies for portfolio selection. It will help managers to take advantage of the results of different methodologies in order to gain returns above the market.

Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Tuoteportfolion hallinnointiprosessin erityispiirteet lääketeollisuusyrityksessä – tapaustutkimus

Tämän pro gradu -tutkielman tarkoituksena oli selvittää, miten lääketeollisuusyritys toteuttaa tuoteportfolioidensa hallinnointia ja miten tämän caseyrityksen portfolioprosessi vastaa kirjallisuuden näkemystä tuoteportfolion hallinnoinnista. Tutkimusongelmaa lähestyttiin tapaustutkimuksella caseyrityksen portfolioprosessista, ja tätä prosessia verrattiin kirjallisuuden näkemykseen aiheesta. Empiiristä aineistoa kerättiin pääosin teema- ja lomakehaastatteluilla caseyrityksen projektin avainhenkilöiltä. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin portfolioprosessin olevan vaiheittainen toimintamalli, jonka tavoitteena on hankkia mahdollisimman kannattava tuotevalikoima. Caseyrityksen portfolioprosessi vastasi pääosin aiheen teorian kuvaamaa mallia, mutta prosessia ja etenkin karsintakriteereitä monipuolistamalla voidaan tulevaisuudessa saavuttaa parempia tuloksia. Lääketeollisuudella toimialana on tiettyjä ominaispiirteitä, mutta nämä eivät suoraan näy varsinaisessa portfolioprosessissa. Kuitenkin esimerkiksi erityyppisten liiketoimintayksiköiden tarpeet olisi syytä huomioida tuoteportfolion hallinnointiprosessissa.

Stability Analysis in Multicriteria Discrete Portfolio Optimization.

Almost every problem of design, planning and management in the technical and organizational systems has several conflicting goals or interests. Nowadays, multicriteria decision models represent a rapidly developing area of operation research. While solving practical optimization problems, it is necessary to take into account various kinds of uncertainty due to lack of data, inadequacy of mathematical models to real-time processes, calculation errors, etc. In practice, this uncertainty usually leads to undesirable outcomes where the solutions are very sensitive to any changes in the input parameters. An example is the investment managing. Stability analysis of multicriteria discrete optimization problems investigates how the found solutions behave in response to changes in the initial data (input parameters). This thesis is devoted to the stability analysis in the problem of selecting investment project portfolios, which are optimized by considering different types of risk and efficiency of the investment projects. The stability analysis is carried out in two approaches: qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative approach describes the behavior of solutions in conditions with small perturbations in the initial data. The stability of solutions is defined in terms of existence a neighborhood in the initial data space. Any perturbed problem from this neighborhood has stability with respect to the set of efficient solutions of the initial problem. The other approach in the stability analysis studies quantitative measures such as stability radius. This approach gives information about the limits of perturbations in the input parameters, which do not lead to changes in the set of efficient solutions. In present thesis several results were obtained including attainable bounds for the stability radii of Pareto optimal and lexicographically optimal portfolios of the investment problem with Savage's, Wald's criteria and criteria of extreme optimism. In addition, special classes of the problem when the stability radii are expressed by the formulae were indicated. Investigations were completed using different combinations of Chebyshev's, Manhattan and Hölder's metrics, which allowed monitoring input parameters perturbations differently.

Toimittajayhteistyön arviointi, luokittelu ja mittaaminen

Toimittajien arviointi, luokittelu sekä suorituskyvyn mittaaminen ovat nousseet yhdeksi merkittäväksi tekijäksi yritysten pyrkiessä kilpailukyvyn parantamiseen. Sisäisten prosessien kehittämisen lisäksi painopistettä ollaan siirtämässä yhä enemmän toimittajien koordinointiin ja jopa heidän omien prosessiensa kehittämiseen. Globaalit markkinat ovat mahdollistaneet uusien toimittajien löytämisen, minkä seurauksena toimittajamäärä on kasvanut rajusti. Jatkuvan resurssien kiristämisen takia toimittajien kanssa tehtävän yhteistyön jatkuva seuranta ei kuitenkaan ole mahdollista. Yritysten tulee löytää juuri ne potentiaalisimmat toimittajat, joiden kanssa tehty yhteistyö tuottaa parhaimmat tulokset. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, kuinka toimittajayhteistyötä voitaisiin kehittää kokonaisvaltaisesti sekä tilaajan että toimittajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen teoriaosuudessa keskitytään toimittajien arviointiin, luokitteluun ja suorituskyvyn mittaamiseen. Tutkimuksen empiriaosuus muodostuu teemahaastatteluista, jossa haastateltiin sekä toimittajia että tilaajia yhteistyön tekemisen näkökulmasta. Saatuja vastauksia analysoitiin aiempaa kirjallisuutta vastaan. Tuloksena esitetään kohdeyritykselle malli, jonka avulla voidaan löytää potentiaalisimmat toimittajat ja auttaa kehittämään yhteistyötä heidän kanssaan. Tutkimuksen merkittävimpinä havaintoina voidaan pitää liikevaihdon osuuden merkitystä kehitysaktiivisuuteen sekä ei-taloudellisten mittareiden huomioon ottamista.

Value at Risk in Foreign Exchange Risk Management

This thesis examines the suitability of VaR in foreign exchange rate risk management from the perspective of a European investor. The suitability of four different VaR models is evaluated in respect to have insight if VaR is a valuable tool in managing foreign exchange rate risk. The models evaluated are historical method, historical bootstrap method, variance-covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation. The data evaluated are divided into emerging and developed market currencies to have more intriguing analysis. The foreign exchange rate data in this thesis is from 31st January 2000 to 30th April 2014. The results show that the previously mentioned VaR models performance in foreign exchange risk management is not to be considered as a single tool in foreign exchange rate risk management. The variance-covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation performs poorest in both currency portfolios. Both historical methods performed better but should also be considered as an additional tool along with other more sophisticated analysis tools. A comparative study of VaR estimates and forward prices is also included in the thesis. The study reveals that regardless of the expensive hedging cost of emerging market currencies the risk captured by VaR is more expensive and thus FX forward hedging is recommended

Ostoportfoliot hankinta-alan asiantuntijoiden strategisina segmentointityökaluina

Arvoverkostojen välinen kilpailu nykyisessä liiketoiminnassa on johtanut siihen, että toimittajaportfolioita pyritään hallitsemaan yhä strategisemmin. Yksi tapa hallita yrityksen toimittajaportfoliota on segmentoida toimittajat eri kategorioihin ja asettaa näille kategorioille strategiset tavoitteet. Segmentoinnin työkaluina voidaan käyttää ostoportfolioita, joita on suunniteltu useita erilaisia erilaisiin tarpeisiin. Käytetyin portfoliomalli on Kraljicin ostoportfolio, jota käytetään visualisoimaan yrityksen toimittajia ja tuotteita niiden tuottovaikutuksen ja toimitusriskin perusteella. Tutkimuksen tavoite oli ymmärtää, miten hankinta-alan asiantuntijat hallitsevat toimittajaportfoliotaan, painottaen erityisesti sitä, miten hankinta-asiantuntijat käyttävät tieteellisiä ostoportfolioita todellisessa liike-elämässä. Tutkimus toteutettiin laadullisin menetelmin, koska työn tarkoituksena oli ymmärtää syvällisesti tutkittavia kohteita ja pohtia niitä taustatekijöitä, jotka puoltavat tai hidastavat ostoportfolioiden käyttöä yrityksissä. Työssä haastateltiin viittä hankinta-alan asiantuntijaa, joista kaksi työskentelee johtavissa tehtävissä yksityisessä osakeyhtiössä ja kolme työskentelee johtavissa tehtävissä julkisessa osakeyhtiössä. Työn lopputuloksena voidaan todeta, että Kraljicin ostoportfoliota käytetään laajasti erilaisissa hankinnoissa, mutta muita tieteellisiä malleja ei käytetä. Portfolionanalyysin käyttö liittyy usein hankintaosaston kokoon, hankintahenkilöstön asiantuntevuuteen ja koulutukseen, strategisuuteen ja strategiseen vaikutusvaltaan yrityksessä. Niiden käyttö riippuu myös siitä, minkälaisia hankintoja tehdään. Haastavimmaksi ostoportfolioiden käyttö koetaan palveluiden hankinnoissa. Portfoliomallia hyödynnetään erityisesti, kun yritys kartoittaa toimittajakenttäänsä hakiessaan uusia muutossuuntia liiketoimintaansa.

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

Variance reduction properties of dynamic hedging models - empirical evidence from BRICS countries

This Master’s Thesis analyses the effectiveness of different hedging models on BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. Hedging performance is examined by comparing two different dynamic hedging models to conventional OLS regression based model. The dynamic hedging models being employed are Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH(1,1) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH(1,1) with Student’s t-distribution. In order to capture the period of both Great Moderation and the latest financial crisis, the sample period extends from 2003 to 2014. To determine whether dynamic models outperform the conventional one, the reduction of portfolio variance for in-sample data with contemporaneous hedge ratios is first determined and then the holding period of the portfolios is extended to one and two days. In addition, the accuracy of hedge ratio forecasts is examined on the basis of out-of-sample variance reduction. The results are mixed and suggest that dynamic hedging models may not provide enough benefits to justify harder estimation and daily portfolio adjustment. In this sense, the results are consistent with the existing literature.