Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Molluscan radiations and landscape evolution in Miocene Amazonia

This PhD study aims to exploit the rich archive provided by the Miocene mollusc fauna of the Pebas Formation and other inland Miocene Amazonian formations to reconstruct landscape evolution and biotic development in lowland Amazonia during the Neogene. Over 160 samples from more than 70 Pebas Formation outcrops mostly collected by the author were processed for this study. Additional samples were collected in Andean areas of Colombia and Venezuela and further material from other northwestern South American basins was studied in museums. Pebas Formation samples and well log data made available by Occidental Peru from three wells in the Marañon Basin in Peru were also investigated. During this study four genera and 74 species from the Pebas Formation have been described and a further 13 species have been introduced in open nomenclature, and several species were reported for the first time. The number of mollusc species attributed to the Pebas fauna has increased from around 50 to 156. The Pebas fauna is characterised as aquatic, endemic and extinct, and is a typical representative of a long-lived lake fauna. Fluvial taxa are not common, (marginal) marine taxa are rare. An additional molluscan fauna from the Miocene Solimões Formation of Brazil, containing 13 fresh water species was also described. The newly documented fauna was used to improve biostratigraphic framework of Miocene Amazonian deposits. Twelve mollusc zones were introduced, the upper eleven of which cover a time interval of approximately seven million years covered previously by only three pollen zones. An age model calculated for the borehole data indicates that the Pebas Formation was deposited between c. 24 and 11 Ma. The areal distribution of the outcropping mollusc zones uncovered a broad dome structure, termed here the Iquitos-Araracuara anteclise in the study area. The structure appears to have influenced river courses and also contributed to edaphic heterogeneity that may have been in part responsible for the current high biodiversity in the study area. The Pebas system was a huge system (> one million km2) dominated by relatively shallow lakes, but also containing swamps and rivers. The system was fed by rivers draining the emergent Andes in the west and lowlands and cratons to the east. The Pebas system was located at sea level and was open to marine settings through a northern portal running through the Llanos Basin and East Venezuela Basin towards the Caribbean. Cyclical baselevel changes possibly related to Mylankhovitch cycles, have been documented in depositional sequences of the Pebas Formation. The composition of the Pebasian mollusc fauna implies that the system was mostly a fresh water system. Such an interpretation is matched by strontium isotope ratios as well as very negative δ18O ratios found in the shells, but is at odds with oligohaline and mesohaline ichnofacies found in the same strata. The mollusc fauna of the Pebas Formation diversified through most of the existence of the lake system. The diversification was mostly the result of in-situ cladogenesis. The success of some of the Pebasian endemic clades is explained by adaptation to fresh water, low oxygen, common unconsolidated lake bottoms (soup grounds) as well as high predation intensity. Maximum diversity was reached at the base of the late Middle to early Late Miocene Grimsdalea pollen zone, some 13 Ma. At the time some 85 species co-occurred, 67 of which are considered as Pebasian endemics. A subsequent drop in species richness coincides with indications of elevated salinities, although a causal relation still needs to be established. Apparently the Pebas fauna went (almost) entirely extinct with the replacement of the lake system into a fluvio-tidal system during the Early Late Miocene, some 11 Ma.

Offering planning process development: Bridging the Offering Gaps and Consolidating Top Priority Needs in Product Offering

The aim of this Thesis is to study how to manage the front-end of the offering planning process. This includes actual process development and methods to gather and analyze information to achieve the best outcome in customer oriented product offering. Study is carried out in two parts: theoretical part and company related part. Theoretical framework is created introducing different types of approaches to manage product planning processes. Products are seen as platforms and they are broken down to subsystems to show different parts of the development. With the help of the matrix-based approaches product platform related information is gathered and analyzed. In this kind of analysis business/market drivers and cus-tomer/competitor information are connected with product subsystems. This gives possibilities to study product gaps/needs and possible future ideas/scenarios in different customer segments. Company related part consists of offering planning process development in real company environment. Process formation includes documents and tools that guide planning from the information gathering to the prioritization and decision making.

Sales and Operations Planning Implementation

The master’s thesis focused on implementing a sales and operations planning process. The main objectives were to create planning methods and tools for the implementation. The ultimate goal of the process, beyond this master’s thesis, is to balance the supply of products with customer demand, with optimized profitability. The theoretical part focused on giving a thorough view on the sales and operations planning process. The basis for a monthly planning cycle was identified. Methods, tools, and metrics for demand forecasting and operations planning were also introduced. Based on the theoretical part, a method for forecasting, a forecast spreadsheet, and a forecast accuracy metric were designed. A spreadsheet tool and methods were also designed for the monthly planning of production volumes, capacity, and inventory. The implementation progress was reviewed for two product families for three months. The sales and operations planning process was able to successfully identify a demand peak for the product families. Suggestions for the future of sales and operations planning were also made.

Production Cycle Optimization: Defining the Market Potential for a New Planning Tool

An optimization tool has been developed to help companies to optimize their production cycles and thus improve their overall supply chain management processes. The application combines the functionality that traditional APS (Advanced Planning System) and ARP (Automatic Replenishment Program) systems provide into one optimization run. A qualitative study was organized to investigate opportunities to expand the product’s market base. Twelve personal interviews were conducted and the results were collected in industry specific production planning analyses. Five process industries were analyzed to identify the product’s suitability to each industry sector and the most important product development areas. Based on the research the paper and the plastic film industries remain the most potential industry sectors at this point. To be successful in other industry sectors some product enhancements would be required, including capabilities to optimize multiple sequential and parallel production cycles, handle sequencing of complex finishing operations and to include master planning capabilities to support overall supply chain optimization. In product sales and marketing processes the key to success is to find and reach the people who are involved directly with the problems that the optimization tool can help to solve.

Planning and ramping up a new SW Testing site

During recent years, mobile phone markets have changed significantly. Asian markets have become vital for the manufacturers with their millions of end users and multiple major mobile network operators. This has resulted in software development as global companies have research and development sites running in multiple locations, including Asia. The reasons behind this are not only in reducing labor costs but also in capitalizing on the local knowledge and knowhow. A ramp-up site has multiple effects in the software development and software release activities. This thesis focuses on representing the importance of software testing as part of software development process and highlighting issues that need to be considered during ramp-up activities. In addition this work tries to emphasize the importance of communication between parties and information gathering prior to setting up the ramp-up site. The output of this thesis was successful software testing site ramp-up within the set time limits. The quality of software testing work was assured and the ramp-up -project requirements were achieved.

Developing a Comprehensive Model for Marketing Planning — Combining the Major Approaches

Mix marketing and relationships marketing are two major approaches that often form a basis for organizational marketing planning. The superiority of these approaches has been debated for long without any rational conclusion. Lately there have been studies indicating that both of the major approaches are many times used side by side in marketing planning. There have been also studies suggesting that even combining the mix marketing and relationship marketing approaches might be possible. The aim of this thesis is to provide knowledge about the usage of mix marketing and relationship marketing approaches in organizations and possibilities in combining the approaches. Also a settlement of strengths, weaknesses and risks of combining is intended to provide. The objectives were met through the literature and a case study research. In the case study, interviews were conducted in order to gain a deeper knowledge about marketing planning in various organizations. Based on this study, the combining of the major marketing approaches will be possible and even recommended when keeping in mind few aspects which might cause some troubles in the combining process.

Production planning development in global manufacturing company

Larox Corporation is a provider of full service filtration in solid and liquid separation. Larox develops, designs, manufactures and supplies industrial filters. By Larox’s continuous development principle, a project for more efficient production was started. At the same time production planning was taken under review. Aim for this Master’s thesis was to find software designed for production planning purposes replacement for old Microsoft Excel based method. In this Master’s thesis current way of production planning was thoroughly analyzed and improvement targets were specified and also requirements for new software were assigned. Primary requirements for new software were possibility to production scheduling, planning, follow-up and also for long-time capacity planning and tracking. Also one demand was that new software should have data link to Larox’s current ERP-system. Result of this Master’s thesis was to start using Larox’s ERP-system also for production planning purposes. New mode of operation fulfils all requirements which were placed to new system. By using new method of production planning, production planners can get more easier and reliable data than from current system.

Researching Manufacturing Planning and Control system and Master Scheduling in a manufacturing firm.

The objective of this thesis is to research Manufacturing Planning and Control (MPC) system and Master Scheduling (MS) in a manufacturing firm. The study is conducted at Ensto Finland Corporation, which operates on a field of electrical systems and supplies. The paper consists of theoretical and empirical parts. The empirical part is based on weekly operating at Ensto and includes inter-firm material analysis, learning and meetings. Master Scheduling is an important module of an MPC system, since it is beneficial on transforming strategic production plans based on demand forecasting into operational schedules. Furthermore, capacity planning tools can remarkably contribute to production planning: by Rough-Cut Capacity Planning (RCCP) tool, a MS plan can be critically analyzed in terms of available key resources in real manufacturing environment. Currently, there are remarkable inefficiencies when it comes to Ensto’s practices: the system is not able to take into consideration seasonal demand and react on market changes on time; This can cause significant lost sales. However, these inefficiencies could be eliminated through the appropriate utilization of MS and RCCP tools. To utilize MS and RCCP tools in Ensto’s production environment, further testing in real production environment is required. Moreover, data accuracy, appropriate commitment to adapting and learning the new tools, and continuous developing of functions closely related to MS, such as sales forecasting, need to be ensured.