The Role of Preannouncing In Innovation Launch Strategy

The objective of this master’s thesis was to examine the role of preannouncing in innovation launch strategy. Preannouncing was studied from three different angles that were preannouncement usage, preannouncement timing and preannouncement goals and from two different perspectives that were the firm’s internal strategy and the external circumstances. The firm’s internal strategy encompassed the product strategy the firm had chosen. The external circumstances consisted of the industry, the nature of competition and the nature of market. Additionally, the product’s performance in the short term was studied in order to be able to speak out whether it is advantageous to preannounce. The empirical study was conducted as a partial replication study. The data for the empirical part was collected with a wide mailing and Internet enquiry in October 2008 – June 2009. Sample (N = 713) consisted of Finnish firms representing different industries and innovation activities. The data collection produced 272 answers and thus, the final response rate of the study was 38.15 %. The data was analyzed by using Microsoft Excel and statistical analysis program SAS Enterprise Guide. As a conclusion, the major results indicate that even if the firms use preannouncing quite often (54.8 % of the respondents), preannouncing behavior cannot be explained by industry. However, out of other external circumstances, the customer related turbulence affects on preannouncing usage. It was also revealed that the product type has an effect on preannouncing behavior. Additionally, preannouncement timing was noticed to differ according to audiences (distributors and end users).

Conditions for EFL learning and professional development : Finland-Swedish learner and teacher perspectives

Engelskans dominerande roll som internationellt språk och andra globaliseringstrender påverkar också Svenskfinland. Dessa trender påverkar i sin tur förutsättningarna för lärande och undervisning i engelska som främmande språk, det vill säga undervisningsmålen, de förväntade elev- och lärarroller, materialens ändamålsenlighet, lärares och elevers initiala erfarenheter av engelska och engelskspråkiga länder. Denna studie undersöker förutsättningarna för lärande och professionell utveckling i det svenskspråkiga nybörjarklassrummet i engelska som främmande språk. Utgångsläget för 351 nybörjare i engelska som främmande språk och 19 av deras lärare beskrivs och analyseras. Resultaten tyder på att engelska håller på att bli ett andraspråk snarare än ett traditionellt främmande språk för många unga elever. Dessa elever har också goda förutsättningar att lära sig engelska utanför skolan. Sådan var dock inte situationen för alla elever, vilket tyder på att det finns en anmärkningsvärd heterogenitet och även regional variation i det finlandssvenska klassrummet i engelska som främmande språk. Lärarresultaten tyder på att vissa lärare har klarat av att på ett konstruktivt sätt att tackla de förutsättningar de möter. Andra lärare uttrycker frustration över sin arbetssituation, läroplanen, undervisningsmaterialen och andra aktörer som kommer är av betydelse för skolmiljön. Studien påvisar att förutsättningarna för lärande och undervisning i engelska som främmande språk varierar i Svenskfinland. För att stöda elevers och lärares utveckling föreslås att dialogen mellan aktörer på olika nivå i samhället bör förbättras och systematiseras.

Työntömastotrukkien tuotannon optimointi

Tutkimuksessa luodaan Tuko Logistics Oy:n työntömastotrukkien toimintaa opti-moivia toimintaehdotuksia varastonohjausjärjestelmästä saatavan työntömastotruk-kidatan pohjalta. Tutkimus on toteutettu haastattelututkimuksena ja käyttäen apuna tieteellisiä julkaisuja. Tehtävien lomittamistutkimuksen ja loogiseen päättelyn tulok-sena on luotu kaksi toimintaehdotusta: A ja B. Toimintaehdotusten vaikutuksia van-haan järjestelmään verrataan mittareilla, joista osa on tehty jonoteorian jonomallien laskukaavojen pohjalta. Mittareita ovat: tehdyt tehtävät tunnissa, tuottamattoman ajon suhde tuottavaan, normaalitehtäväjonon pituus ja normaalitehtäväjonon koko-naisodotusaika. Toimintaehdotus B osoittautuu tehokkaammaksi ehdotukseksi, mutta Toimintaehdotus A:lla voi varmistaa tehtävien riittämisen työntömastotrukeille. Tut-kimuksessa ehdotetaan myös muita työntömastotrukkien toimintaa optimoivia muu-toksia, jotka voidaan ottaa käyttöön jokaisessa toimintamallissa.

Advanced orbital pipe welding

Since the introduction of automatic orbital welding in pipeline application in 1961, significant improvements have been obtained in orbital pipe welding systems. Requirement of more productive welding systems for pipeline application forces manufacturers to innovate new advanced systems and welding processes for orbital welding method. Various methods have been used to make welding process adaptive, such as visual sensing, passive visual sensing, real-time intelligent control, scan welding technique, multi laser vision sensor, thermal scanning, adaptive image processing, neural network model, machine vision, and optical sensing. Numerous studies are reviewed and discussed in this Master’s thesis and based on a wide range of experiments which already have been accomplished by different researches the vision sensor are reported to be the best choice for adaptive orbital pipe welding system. Also, in this study the most welding processes as well as the most pipe variations welded by orbital welding systems mainly for oil and gas pipeline applications are explained. The welding results show that Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW) and its variants like Surface Tension Transfer (STT) and modified short circuit are the most preferred processes in the welding of root pass and can be replaced to the Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (GTAW) in many applications. Furthermore, dual-tandem gas metal arc welding technique is currently considered the most efficient method in the welding of fill pass. Orbital GTAW process mostly is applied for applications ranging from single run welding of thin walled stainless tubes to multi run welding of thick walled pipes. Flux cored arc welding process is faster process with higher deposition rate and recently this process is getting more popular in pipe welding applications. Also, combination of gas metal arc welding and Nd:YAG laser has shown acceptable results in girth welding of land pipelines for oil and gas industry. This Master’s thesis can be implemented as a guideline in welding of pipes and tubes to achieve higher quality and efficiency. Also, this research can be used as a base material for future investigations to supplement present finding.

Animal Lovers, Bridge-Builders, and Supervising Watchdogs: Framing and Civil Society Construction by Japanese Pro-Animal Organizations in the Kansai and Tokyo Areas

Unlike their counterparts in Europe and America, the citizen organizations acting for the well-being of animals in Japan have not received scholarly attention. In this research, I explore the activities of twelve Japanese pro-animal organizations in Tokyo and Kansai area from the perspective of social movement and civil society studies. The concept of a ‘pro-animal organization’ is used to refer generally to the collectives promoting animal well-being. By using the collective action frame analysis and the three core framing tasks – diagnostic, prognostic, and motivational – as the primarily analytical tools, I explore the grievances, tactics, motivational means, constructions of agency and identity as well as framing of civil society articulated in the newsletters and the interviews of the twelve organizations I interviewed in Japan in 2010. As the frame construction is always done in relation to the social and political context, I study how the organizations construct their roles as civil society actors in relation to other actors, such as the state, and the idea of citizen activism. The deficiencies in the animal welfare law and lack of knowledge among the public are identified as the main grievances. The primary tactic to overcome these problems was to educate and inform the citizens and authorities, because most organizations lack the channels to influence politically. The audiences were mostly portrayed as either ignorant bystanders or potential adherents. In order to motivate people to join their cause and to enforce the motivation within the organization, the organizations emphasized their uniqueness, proved their efficiency, claimed credit and celebrated even small improvements. The organizations tended to create three different roles for citizen pro-organizations in civil society: reactive, apolitical and emphatic animal lovers concentrating on saving individual animals, proactive, educative bridge-builders seeking to establish equal collaborative relations with authorities, and corrective, supervising watchdogs demanding change in delinquencies offending animal rights. Based on the results of this research, I suggest that by studying how and why the different relations between civil society and the governing actors of the state are constructed, a more versatile approach to citizens’ activism in its context can be achieved.

Thinking Outside the Box: Enhancing Science Teaching by Combining (Instead of Contrasting) Laboratory and Simulation Activities

The focus of the present work was on 10- to 12-year-old elementary school students’ conceptual learning outcomes in science in two specific inquiry-learning environments, laboratory and simulation. The main aim was to examine if it would be more beneficial to combine than contrast simulation and laboratory activities in science teaching. It was argued that the status quo where laboratories and simulations are seen as alternative or competing methods in science teaching is hardly an optimal solution to promote students’ learning and understanding in various science domains. It was hypothesized that it would make more sense and be more productive to combine laboratories and simulations. Several explanations and examples were provided to back up the hypothesis. In order to test whether learning with the combination of laboratory and simulation activities can result in better conceptual understanding in science than learning with laboratory or simulation activities alone, two experiments were conducted in the domain of electricity. In these experiments students constructed and studied electrical circuits in three different learning environments: laboratory (real circuits), simulation (virtual circuits), and simulation-laboratory combination (real and virtual circuits were used simultaneously). In order to measure and compare how these environments affected students’ conceptual understanding of circuits, a subject knowledge assessment questionnaire was administered before and after the experimentation. The results of the experiments were presented in four empirical studies. Three of the studies focused on learning outcomes between the conditions and one on learning processes. Study I analyzed learning outcomes from experiment I. The aim of the study was to investigate if it would be more beneficial to combine simulation and laboratory activities than to use them separately in teaching the concepts of simple electricity. Matched-trios were created based on the pre-test results of 66 elementary school students and divided randomly into a laboratory (real circuits), simulation (virtual circuits) and simulation-laboratory combination (real and virtual circuits simultaneously) conditions. In each condition students had 90 minutes to construct and study various circuits. The results showed that studying electrical circuits in the simulation–laboratory combination environment improved students’ conceptual understanding more than studying circuits in simulation and laboratory environments alone. Although there were no statistical differences between simulation and laboratory environments, the learning effect was more pronounced in the simulation condition where the students made clear progress during the intervention, whereas in the laboratory condition students’ conceptual understanding remained at an elementary level after the intervention. Study II analyzed learning outcomes from experiment II. The aim of the study was to investigate if and how learning outcomes in simulation and simulation-laboratory combination environments are mediated by implicit (only procedural guidance) and explicit (more structure and guidance for the discovery process) instruction in the context of simple DC circuits. Matched-quartets were created based on the pre-test results of 50 elementary school students and divided randomly into a simulation implicit (SI), simulation explicit (SE), combination implicit (CI) and combination explicit (CE) conditions. The results showed that when the students were working with the simulation alone, they were able to gain significantly greater amount of subject knowledge when they received metacognitive support (explicit instruction; SE) for the discovery process than when they received only procedural guidance (implicit instruction: SI). However, this additional scaffolding was not enough to reach the level of the students in the combination environment (CI and CE). A surprising finding in Study II was that instructional support had a different effect in the combination environment than in the simulation environment. In the combination environment explicit instruction (CE) did not seem to elicit much additional gain for students’ understanding of electric circuits compared to implicit instruction (CI). Instead, explicit instruction slowed down the inquiry process substantially in the combination environment. Study III analyzed from video data learning processes of those 50 students that participated in experiment II (cf. Study II above). The focus was on three specific learning processes: cognitive conflicts, self-explanations, and analogical encodings. The aim of the study was to find out possible explanations for the success of the combination condition in Experiments I and II. The video data provided clear evidence about the benefits of studying with the real and virtual circuits simultaneously (the combination conditions). Mostly the representations complemented each other, that is, one representation helped students to interpret and understand the outcomes they received from the other representation. However, there were also instances in which analogical encoding took place, that is, situations in which the slightly discrepant results between the representations ‘forced’ students to focus on those features that could be generalised across the two representations. No statistical differences were found in the amount of experienced cognitive conflicts and self-explanations between simulation and combination conditions, though in self-explanations there was a nascent trend in favour of the combination. There was also a clear tendency suggesting that explicit guidance increased the amount of self-explanations. Overall, the amount of cognitive conflicts and self-explanations was very low. The aim of the Study IV was twofold: the main aim was to provide an aggregated overview of the learning outcomes of experiments I and II; the secondary aim was to explore the relationship between the learning environments and students’ prior domain knowledge (low and high) in the experiments. Aggregated results of experiments I & II showed that on average, 91% of the students in the combination environment scored above the average of the laboratory environment, and 76% of them scored also above the average of the simulation environment. Seventy percent of the students in the simulation environment scored above the average of the laboratory environment. The results further showed that overall students seemed to benefit from combining simulations and laboratories regardless of their level of prior knowledge, that is, students with either low or high prior knowledge who studied circuits in the combination environment outperformed their counterparts who studied in the laboratory or simulation environment alone. The effect seemed to be slightly bigger among the students with low prior knowledge. However, more detailed inspection of the results showed that there were considerable differences between the experiments regarding how students with low and high prior knowledge benefitted from the combination: in Experiment I, especially students with low prior knowledge benefitted from the combination as compared to those students that used only the simulation, whereas in Experiment II, only students with high prior knowledge seemed to benefit from the combination relative to the simulation group. Regarding the differences between simulation and laboratory groups, the benefits of using a simulation seemed to be slightly higher among students with high prior knowledge. The results of the four empirical studies support the hypothesis concerning the benefits of using simulation along with laboratory activities to promote students’ conceptual understanding of electricity. It can be concluded that when teaching students about electricity, the students can gain better understanding when they have an opportunity to use the simulation and the real circuits in parallel than if they have only the real circuits or only a computer simulation available, even when the use of the simulation is supported with the explicit instruction. The outcomes of the empirical studies can be considered as the first unambiguous evidence on the (additional) benefits of combining laboratory and simulation activities in science education as compared to learning with laboratories and simulations alone.

Feasibility study of metal to polymer hybrid joining

The increasing demand for lightweight components has led to a huge exploitation of non-metallic materials such as polymers, fibers and elastomers in industrial and manufacturing processes. Recent trends towards cost effectiveness, weight reduction and production flexibility in industrial production and manufacturing processes has led to a growing interest in hybrid components where two or more dissimilar materials coexist to achieving specifically optimized characteristics. The importance of this research is to serve as a bridge to understanding the theories behind various joining techniques and the adaptation of the process for metal to polymer hybrid joints. Moreso, it helps companies to select the most productive and yet economical joining process for realization of lightweight metal to polymer hybrid components. This thesis is a literature review analyzing various materials that has been published on various joining methods for metal to polymer hybrid joints on the feasibility and eventual realization of the joint between these dissimilar materials. This study is aimed at theoretically evaluating the feasibility of joining processes between metal and plastic components by exploiting exhaustively joining and welding sources.

Laatu ja tuottavuus hitsaavassa verkostossa

Diplomityössä tarkastellaan laadun ja tuottavuuden parantamisen keinoja hitsaavassa verkostossa MIG/MAG-hitsauksen osalta. Työn taustalla vaikuttaa Total Welding Management -menetelmä, mikä on hitsaustoimintojen kokonaisvaltaiseen johtamiseen ja hallintaan kehitetty toimintamalli. Työn teoriaosassa käsitellään laatuajattelua ja yritysyhteistyötä hitsaavan teollisuuden yrityskentässä sekä hitsauskustannuksiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkimusosuus sisältää yritysverkoston nykytilan tarkastelun sekä kehitystoimenpiteitä kohti verkoston yhteistä toimintamallia saavuttaa tehokas ja kannattava yhteistyö. Hitsaustyön kustannukset määritetään suurelta osin suunnittelussa. Laatuun voidaan vaikuttaa merkittävästi hitsaustyötä edeltävissä toiminnoissa sekä hitsaajan työn tukemisella. Kokonaisvaltaisen hyödyn saavuttaminen hitsaustyön tuottavuuden parantamisessa vaatii kaikkien toimintojen tarkastelua sen sijaan, että tehostetaan vain hitsaamon toimintaa. Itse hitsaus voi olla vain pieni osa hitsaustoimintojen kokonaishallintaa. Toimintamallin luominen laadunvarmistukseen, suunnittelun ja valmistuksen yhteistyöhön sekä hitsaustoimintojen hallintaan mahdollistaa hitsaavan verkoston toiminnan tehostamisen sekä laadun paranemisen. Tämä saavutetaan viemällä toimintamalli osaksi jokapäiväistä työtä, lähelle valmistusta, ja ohjeistamalla, että jokainen tietää kuinka toimia. Esimerkiksi työssä tarkastellun yhden tuotteen osalta ohjeistus turhan työn vähentämiseksi tuotti 19 % tuotannon kasvun työvuoron aikana. Tilaus-toimitusketjun tuottavuuteen ja kannattavuuteen voidaan vaikuttaa merkittävästi käymällä läpi konkreettisesti valmistettavat tuotteet ja niihin liittyvät toiminnot. Diplomityössä tehtyjen tarkastelujen ja havaintojen avulla käytännön työ tulee jatkumaan yritysverkostossa tapahtuvassa kehitystyössä.

Russia’s WTO membership and its effects on global wood sourcing

The aim of the thesis was to find the effects of World Trade Organization and economic integration on the wood sourcing process from Russia to Finland and to the European Union. Also, the fo reign direct investments to Russian forest industry are studied within the WTO and Economic integration framework. Qualitative interviews were carried out as primary data (total of 5 interviews). Research studies and articles regarding the same subject were used as secondary data. Results show that companies may increase their volumes of imported timber from Russia due to the reduction of custom tariffs. Russian companies are becoming more productive, but there are still several problems with legislation, infrastructure, availability and harvesting profitability in some areas. These suggest that sourcing process may not be profitable in the future. The Russian forest industry sector will not gain significant foreign direct investments in the recent years because of the infrastructure and overall atmosphere of investments. Forest industry is not seen as profitable enough. The demand for cellulose and paper in Russia is not increasing fast enough and the cost inflation is cutting the profits made from producing in Russia.

Syntyykö Suomeen puulaaksoja - Suomen puutuoteteollisuuden pk-yritysten tila ja tulevaisuus

Metsäteollisuus on tullut Suomeen ulkomaisen pääoman ja tietotaidon avulla vajaat kaksisataa vuotta sitten. Se on toiminut melkein koko jatkosodan jälkeisen ajan suojatussa ympäristössä ja ulkomaisesta kilpailusta riippumattomassa toimintaympäristössä. Kuten Porter ja muut ovat todistaneet, tällainen toimintaympäristö ei kehitä kansainvälisesti kilpailukykyistä teollisuutta globaaleilla markkinoilla. Liittyminen Euroopan unioniin ja sittemmin Euroopan rahaliittoon saattoi puunjalostusteollisuuden täysin uudenlaiseen kilpailutilanteeseen. Sama tapahtui myös alan pk-yrityksille, jotka olivat joutuneet toimimaan heikosti kilpailluilla raaka-ainemarkkinoilla. Tutkimus on tulevaisuudentutkimus, jossa tutkimusongelmia lähestytään kolmen teorian avulla. Porterin klusteriteoria tarjoaa mahdollisuuden arvioida metsäteollisuutta sekä kokonaisuutena että toimivana monimuotoisena organisaationa, jossa kustannukset ja hinta muodostuvat arvoketjun toimijoiden osakustannuksista. Bionomiateoria eli darvinistinen talousteoria testaa suomalaisen puunjalostusteollisuuden pk-yritysten kilpailukykyä ja paineita hakeutua edullisemmille toiminta- alueille. Evoluutioteoria tarkastelee sukupolvenvaihdoksen problematiikkaa. Sukupolvenvaihdoksen onnistuminen muodostuu puutoimialan elämän ja kuoleman kysymykseksi. Tämä on etenkin pk-yrityksiä kohtaava ongelma. Asiaa selvitettiin Mauno Rintalan suorittamalla kyselytutkimuksella Puuteollisuusyrittäjien jäsenistön keskuudessa. Ongelma johtuu suurista sodan jälkeen syntyneistä ikäluokista. Nämä vuosina 1945– 50 syntyneet ovat siirtymässä eläkkeelle vuosien 2005 ja 2015 välillä. Kyseisissä ikäluokissa yritystiheys on noin kaksi kertaa suurempi kuin sen jälkeisissä ikäluokissa. Suoritetun kyselyn sekä muiden suomalaisten ja kansainvälisten tutkimusten perusteella näyttää siltä, että eläkkeelle siirryttäessä vain noin 30 %:lla yrityksistä on jatkaja tiedossa suvusta tai lähipiiristä. Tämä merkitsee sitä, että 70 % eläköityvän ikäluokan omistamista yrityksistä poistuu pysyvästi markkinoilta. Suomessa poistuma merkitsee noin 40 % koko yritysvarannosta eli noin 80 000 yritystä. Tilastot toimivien yritysten määrästä ovat kuitenkin hyvin ristiriitaisia, joten todellista määrää on mahdoton arvioida. Noin suuren määrän poistuminen markkinoilta uhkaa jo hyvinvointivaltion perusrakenteita. Tutkimustulos edellyttää nopeita toimenpiteitä teollisten pkyritysten pelastamiseksi ja säilyttämiseksi Suomessa. Sukupolvenvaihdoksen onnistuminen on tässä prosessissa ensiarvoisessa asemassa. Kaikkien edellä mainittujen yritysten poistuminen markkinoilta edellyttäisi noin 400 000 uuden yrityksen perustamista, koska ainoastaan noin 20 % yrityksistä selviää ensimmäiset kolme vuotta. Tutkimukseen perustuen esitetään prosessimalli sukupolvenvaihdoksen suorittamiseksi. Suomen tärkeimmissä kilpailijamaissa valtioiden metsäomistus on määräävässä asemassa. Meillä metsät ovat yksityisessä omistuksessa ja vain pieni osa valtion omistuksessa. Puumarkkinat toimivat markkinatalouden ehdoilla ilman valtion ohjausta. Ongelmaksi on kehittymässä puun saanti. Metsänomistus on sukupolvien myötä hajaantunut hyvin pieniksi metsälöiksi. Nykyiset metsänomistajat asuvat kaupungeissa ja ovat pääosin palkkatyössä. He eivät ole samalla tavoin riippuvaisia puutuloista kuin heidän esi-isänsä. Metsäverotuksen uudistuminen lisää puun saannin epävarmuutta. Se on muuttumassa pinta-alaverotuksesta puun myynnin verotukseen. Puun myynti on vilkasta ennen järjestelmien vaihtumista ja vähäisempää sen jälkeen. Myös näitä ongelmia on pyritty ratkomaan uudenlaisen metsänomistusmallin avulla. Puuteollisuus on hyvin vanha teollisuudenala. Raaka-aine muodostaa määräävän osan kustannuksista. Muutokset ovat hitaita ja todelliset innovaatiot pitkäkestoisia. Uusia innovaatioita tapahtuu harvoin. Kannattavuutta parannetaan tuoteprosessien ja arvoketjujen kehittämisen kautta. Yhteiskunnan osuus alan kehittämisessä ja säilyttämisessä on ratkaiseva. Asioiden moninaisuus tekee tutkimuksen vaikeaksi, mutta sitäkin tärkeämmäksi kansantalouden kannalta. Tällaisissa suurissa murroksissa korostuu kaikkien päättävien tahojen henkinen valmius ja tahto tehdä oikeita ratkaisuja oikeaan aikaan.

“Valley co-creation” – exploring the emergence of a cultural product in an entrepreneur-driven value network: Case study: Black Weekend festival

The interconnected domains are attracting interest from industries and academia, although this phenomenon, called ‘convergence’ is not new. Organizational research has indeed focused on uncovering co-creation for manufacturing and the industrial organization, with limited implications to entrepreneurship. Although convergence has been characterized as a process connecting seemingly disparate disciplines, it is argued that these studies tend to leave the creative industries unnoticed. With the art market boom and new forms of collaboration riding past the institution-focused arts marketing literature, this thesis takes a leap to uncover the processes of entrepreneurship in the emergence of a cultural product. As a symbolic work of synergism itself, the thesis combines organizational theory with literature in natural sciences and arts. Assuming nonlinearity, a framework is created for analysing aesthetic experience in an empirical event where network actors are connected to multiple contexts. As the focal case in study, the empirical analysis performed for a music festival organized in a skiing resort in the French Alps in March. The researcher attends the festival and models its cocreation process by enquiring from an artist, festival organisers, and a festival visitor. The findings contribute to fields of entrepreneurship, aesthetics and marketing mainly. It is found that the network actors engage in intimate and creative interaction where activity patterns are interrupted and cultural elements combined. This process is considered to both create and destruct value, through identity building, legitimisation, learning, and access to larger audiences, and it is considered particularly useful for domains where resources are too restrained for conventional marketing practices. This thesis uncovered the role of artists and informants and posits that particularly through experience design, this type of skilled individual be regarded more often as a research informant. Future research is encouraged to engage in convergence by experimenting with different fields and research designs, and it is suggested that future studies could arrive at different descriptive results.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Paperitehtaan arkittamon kokonaistehokkuuden nostaminen kunnossapitoa kehittämällä

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli tutkia, miten UPM:n Kymin tehtaan A4- arkittamon kunnossapitotoimintaa pystyttäisiin kehittämään niin, että tuotantolaitoksen kokonaistehokkuutta saataisiin kasvatettua. Työssä on pohdittu keinoja nykyisen, pääasiallisesti korjaavan kunnossapitotoiminnan muuttamiseksi suunnitelmalliseksi eri teorialähtökohtien pohjalta. Keskeinen teoria, johon työn tulokset pohjautuvat, on kokonaisvaltainen tuottava kunnossapito (TPM). Kirjallisuuslähteisiin tukeutuvaa tutkimusta täydensivät useat haastattelut, A4-valmistajille suunnattu laitteiden kuntokartoituskysely ja tuotannon- ja toiminnanohjausjärjestelmistä kerätty mittausaineisto. Työn merkittävimmät tulokset osoittavat, että A4-arkittamon kunnossapitotoimintaa tulisi suunnata nykyistä enemmän käyttökunnossapitolähtöiseksi. Käyttökunnossapito perustuu tuotannon operaattoreiden osallistumiseen kunnossapitotoimiin varsinaisen kunnossapitohenkilöstön ohella. Tuotantooperaattoreilla on työnsä vuoksi parhaat mahdollisuudet käyttämiensä laitteiden kunnonvalvontaan ja näin ollen mahdollisten vikaantumisten ennakointiin jo varhaisessa vaiheessa. Ennakoimalla pystyttäisiin parantamaan kunnossapidon suunnitelmallisuutta, minkä ansiosta laitteiden käytettävyys ja sitä kautta tuotantolaitoksen kokonaistehokkuus olisivat nykyistä korkeampia.

Meillä kaikki hyvin?

Kirjallisuusarvostelu