Kalman Filtering in Online Paper Quality Assessment

Controlling the quality variables (such as basis weight, moisture etc.) is a vital part of making top quality paper or board. In this thesis, an advanced data assimilation tool is applied to the quality control system (QCS) of a paper or board machine. The functionality of the QCS is based on quality observations that are measured with a traversing scanner making a zigzag path. The basic idea is the following: The measured quality variable has to be separated into its machine direction (MD) and cross direction (CD) variations due to the fact that the QCS works separately in MD and CD. Traditionally this is done simply by assuming one scan of the zigzag path to be the CD profile and its mean value to be one point of the MD trend. In this thesis, a more advanced method is introduced. The fundamental idea is to use the signals’ frequency components to represent the variation in both CD and MD. To be able to get to the frequency domain, the Fourier transform is utilized. The frequency domain, that is, the Fourier components are then used as a state vector in a Kalman filter. The Kalman filter is a widely used data assimilation tool to combine noisy observations with a model. The observations here refer to the quality measurements and the model to the Fourier frequency components. By implementing the two dimensional Fourier transform into the Kalman filter, we get an advanced tool for the separation of CD and MD components in total variation or, to be more general, for data assimilation. A piece of a paper roll is analyzed and this tool is applied to model the dataset. As a result, it is clear that the Kalman filter algorithm is able to reconstruct the main features of the dataset from a zigzag path. Although the results are made with a very short sample of paper roll, it seems that this method has great potential to be used later on as a part of the quality control system.

Small scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area in emission trading point of view

Emission trading with greenhouse gases and green certificates are part if the climate policy the main target of which is reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The carbon dioxide and fine particle emissions of energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area are calculated in this study. The analysis is made mainly by district heating point of view and the changes of the district heating network are assessed. Carbon dioxide emissions would be a bit higher, if the district heating network is expanded, but then the fine particle emissions would be much lower. Carbon dioxide emissions are roughly 10 % higher, if the district heating network is expanded at same rate as it has in past five years in the year 2030. The expansion of district heating network would decrease the fine particle emissions about 40 %. The cost of the expansion is allocated to be reduction cost of the fine particle emissions, which is considerably higher than the traditional reduction methods costs. The possible new nuclear plant would reduce the emissions considerably and the costs of the nuclear plant would be relatively low comparing the other energy production methods.

Commodity Price Driven Risk Management from Viewpoint of High Grade Steel Alloys

The study of price risk management concerning high grade steel alloys and their components was conducted. This study was focused in metal commodities, of which nickel, chrome and molybdenum were in a central role. Also possible hedging instruments and strategies for referred metals were studied. In the literature part main themes are price formation of Ni, Cr and Mo, the functioning of metal exchanges and main hedging instruments for metal commodities. This section also covers how micro and macro variables may affect metal prices from the viewpoint of short as well as longer time period. The experimental part consists of three sections. In the first part, multiple regression model with seven explanatory variables was constructed to describe price behavior of nickel. Results were compared after this with information created with comparable simple regression model. Additionally, long time mean price reversion of nickel was studied. In the second part, theoretical price of CF8M alloy was studied by using nickel, ferro-chrome and ferro-molybdenum as explanatory variables. In the last section, cross hedging possibilities for illiquid FeCr -metal was studied with five LME futures. Also this section covers new information concerning possible forthcoming molybdenum future contracts as well. The results of this study confirm, that linear regression models which are based on the assumption of market rationality, are not able to reliably describe price development of metals at issue. Models fulfilling assumptions for linear regression may though include useful information of statistical significant variables which have effect on metal prices. According to the experimental part, short futures were found to incorporate the most accurate information concerning the price movements in the future. However, not even 3M futures were able to predict turning point in the market before the faced slump. Cross hedging seemed to be very doubtful risk management strategy for illiquid metals, because correlations coefficients were found to be very sensitive for the chosen time span.

Designing features for supporting social interactions in online communities

This Master's thesis studies the development of interaction and socialization in online communities. A large number of online communities fade away even before they really get started. In many occasions the reason is that the community does not give anything new, or even if they do, the delivery does not satisfy the users. In this thesis guidelines were developed to help to see important things, which might be forgotten when developing an online community. The thesis goes through the characteristic of an online community and human behaviour related to them and also compares behaviour in the Internet and real life. In addition, usability is an important part of the online communities and thus it is also covered in this thesis. As a result of this thesis an 8-step guideline was developed to ease the design of an online community. Guidelines were also applied to two real life cases which are described as one part of this work.

Evaluating Firm-Hosted Online Communities

This thesis centers to three firm-hosted online communities which operate in the field of software development. The communities were analyzed by using a particular design framework. This thesis investigates how companies can benefit from firm-hosted online communities and how well the design principles are present in analyzed communities. The framework also gives perspective and indicators which enables the possibility to analyze and compare communities with each other. This thesis also discuss how well a design framework designed for measuring social software fits to measuring online communities of software development.

Resources and capabilities approach to online strategy – Multiple-case study of Finnish magazines' online services

Most Finnish periodical magazines have a website, often an online service. The objective of this thesis is to understand the magazines’ resources and capabilities and match them with online strategies’ goals and objectives. The thesis’ theoretical part focuses on explaining and classifying resources, capabilities, goals and objectives, and applying everything into Finnish magazine publishing context. In the empirical part, there is a comparative case study of four magazines. The findings indicate that with cooperating, advertising and community hosting capabilities magazines may utilize their human, brand, content and customer base resources. The resources can be further addressed to reach profitability, customer-centricity and brand congruency goals.

The relationship between first-order capabilities and online innovations. A comparative case study on the publishing sector.

The objective of this thesis was to study the relationship between firstorder capabilities and online innovations. First-order capabilities can be divided into market and technology capabilities, and they play an important role in the production of innovations. The study was carried out in publishing industry, where many changes have taken place in the online environment during the last few years. In the empirical research, four companies were studied, two magazine publishers and two newspaper publishers. The analysis was done in two phases; first every case was analyzed alone and then the cases were compared in cross-case analysis. The most important finding was the positive impact of market capability to the production of online innovations. The study also increased understanding about the relationship between market and technology capabilities and online innovations in general.

Evaluating Web Content Management Systems Compatibility for Implementing Online Communities

The purpose of this study is to study whether a Web CMS can be used to implement and host an online community. The study is divided into two parts. The theoretical part contains the definition of Web CMS and clarifies the relation between an online community and a social software. The first part also defines the parameters, which must be taken account when choosing a Web CMS for hosting an online community. The practical part of the study contains analyses of three Web CMSs, Drupal, Liferay and Plone. All the three Web CMSs were analyzed using the technical and social parameters discovered in the theoretical part of the study. The primary objective is to investigate whether the selected Web CMS can be used to implement and host an online community. If hosting is possible, the secondary objective is to investigate whether the selected Web CMS have an effect to the online community.

Utilizing online demand generation in an engineering company

Työn tarkoituksena on selvittää miten sähköistä kysynnän herättämistä voidaan hyödyntää Mantsinen Group Ltd Oy:ssä siten, että sillä pystytään tukemaan myyntiä. Lisäksi sähköisen kysynnän herättämisen tehokkuutta tutkitaan, jotta saadaan selville onko se kannattavaa ja kuinka hyvin se sopii yritykselle. Kysynnän herättämisjärjestelmän käyttö on määritelty kirjallisuuteen perustuen ja sen jälkeen järjestelmän käyttö on aloitettu. Sähköisen kysynnän herättämisen tehokkuus mitataan kolmen kuukauden tarkastelujakson todellisella datalla. Sähköisen kysynnän herättämisen sopivuutta arvioidaan perustuen sen kustannustehokkuuteen ja tuloksiin. Työn tulokset osoittavat, että sähköinen kysynnän herättäminen on kannattavaa ja se sopii yritykselle. Sillä voidaan parhaiten tukea myyntiä järjestelmän tuottaessa laadukkaita myyntimahdollisuuksia tasaisena virtana myynnille. Myös aiemmin manuaalisesti tehtyjä työtehtäviä voidaan automatisoida ja näin vähentää myyjien työtaakkaa.

Online Ultrasound Measurements of Membrane Compaction

There are several filtration applications in the pulp and paper industry where the capacity and cost-effectiveness of processes are of importance. Ultrafiltration is used to clean process water. Ultrafiltration is a membrane process that separates a certain component or compound from a liquid stream. The pressure difference across the membrane sieves macromolecules smaller than 0.001-0.02 μm through the membrane. When optimizing the filtration process capacity, online information about the conditions of the membrane is needed. Fouling and compaction of the membrane both affect the capacity of the filtration process. In fouling a “cake” layer starts to build on the surface of the membrane. This layer blocks the molecules from sieving through the membrane thereby decreasing the yield of the process. In compaction of the membrane the structure is flattened out because of the high pressure applied. The higher pressure increases the capacity but may damage the structure of the membrane permanently. Information about the compaction is needed to effectively operate the filters. The objective of this study was to develop an accurate system for online monitoring of the condition of the membrane using ultrasound reflectometry. Measurements of ultrafiltration membrane compaction were made successfully utilizing ultrasound. The results were confirmed by permeate flux decline, measurements of compaction with a micrometer, mechanical compaction using a hydraulic piston and a scanning electron microscope (SEM). The scientific contribution of this thesis is to introduce a secondary ultrasound transducer to determine the speed of sound in the fluid used. The speed of sound is highly dependent on the temperature and pressure used in the filters. When the exact speed of sound is obtained by the reference transducer, the effect of temperature and pressure is eliminated. This speed is then used to calculate the distances with a higher accuracy. As the accuracy or the resolution of the ultrasound measurement is increased, the method can be applied to a higher amount of applications especially for processes where fouling layers are thinner because of smaller macromolecules. With the help of the transducer, membrane compaction of 13 μm was measured in the pressure of 5 bars. The results were verified with the permeate flux decline, which indicated that compaction had taken place. The measurements of compaction with a micrometer showed compaction of 23–26 μm. The results are in the same range and confirm the compaction. Mechanical compaction measurements were made using a hydraulic piston, and the result was the same 13 μm as obtained by applying the ultrasound time domain reflectometry (UTDR). A scanning electron microscope (SEM) was used to study the structure of the samples before and after the compaction.

Is it possible to utilize VIX for a profitable trading strategy of S&P 500 Index?

The goal of this research was to make an overall sight to VIX® and how it can be used as a stock market indicator. Volatility index often referred as the fear index, measures how much it costs for investor to protect his/her S&P 500 position from fluctuations with options. Over the relatively short history of VIX it has been a successful timing coordinator and it has given incremental information about the market state adding its own psychological view of the amount of fear and greed. Correctly utilized VIX information gives a considerable advantage in timing market actions. In this paper we test how VIX works as a leading indicator of broad stock market index such as S&P 500 (SPX). The purpose of this paper is to find a working way to interpret VIX. The various tests are made on time series data ranging from the year 1990 to the year 2010. The 10-day simple moving average strategy gave significant profits from the whole time when VIX data is available. Strategy was able to utilize the increases of SPX in example portfolio value and was able to step aside when SPX was declining. At the times when portfolio was aside of S it was on safety fund like on treasury bills getting an annual yield of 3 percent. On the other side just a static number’s of VIX did not work as indicators in a profit making way.

Teknisen analyysin hyödynnettävyys hyödykefutuurimarkkinoilla

Tutkielman tavoitteena on tarkastella teknisen analyysin hyödynnettävyyttä hyödykefutuurimarkkinoilla. Tutkielmassa pyritään selvittämään, onko teknisen analyysin eri menetelmien mukaan ajoitetuilla hyödykefutuurien osto- ja myyntitoimeksiannoilla mahdollista ylittää toisaalta passiivisen indeksisijoittamisen ja toisaalta osta ja pidä -strategian tuottotaso sekä työssä analysoimaan saatujen tulosten syitä. Tutkimusaineisto sisältää 25 eri hyödykkeen futuuriaikasarjat vuosilta 2000 - 2010. Historiallisiin kurssitietoihin pohjautuen muodostettiin seitsemän sijoitusstrategiaa ja yhteensä 21 eri menetelmävariaatiota, joiden suoriutumista tutkittiin yksittäisten hyödykefutuurien osalta sekä hyödykefutuuriportfolioina. Tulokset osoittivat, että tekniseen analyysiin perustuvilla hyödykefutuuri-strategioilla on ollut mahdollista saavuttaa merkittävää hajautushyötyä. Lisäksi aktiivisten kaupankäynti¬strategioiden tuotot ylittivät sekä passiivis-ten markkinaindeksien että osta ja pidä -strategian tuottotason. Strategioi-den kannattavuuden havaittiin korreloivan positiivisesti ja tilastollisesti merkitsevästi tutkimuksessa analysoitujen tuottoaikasarjojen autokorreloituneisuusasteen kanssa, mutta käänteisesti ja merkitsevästi eri menetelmävariaatioiden synnyttämien kaupankäynti¬signaalien määrän kanssa.

From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Optimal trading of wind power in the short term market

The energy reform, which is happening all over the world, is caused by the common concern of the future of the humankind in our shared planet. In order to keep the effects of the global warming inside of a certain limit, the use of fossil fuels must be reduced. The marginal costs of the renewable sources, RES are quite high, since they are new technology. In order to induce the implementation of RES to the power grid and lower the marginal costs, subsidies were developed in order to make the use of RES more profitable. From the RES perspective the current market is developed to favor conventional generation, which mainly uses fossil fuels. Intermittent generation, like wind power, is penalized in the electricity market since it is intermittent and thus diffi-cult to control. Therefore, the need of regulation and thus the regulation costs to the producer differ, depending on what kind of generation market participant owns. In this thesis it is studied if there is a way for market participant, who has wind power to use the special characteristics of electricity market Nord Pool and thus reach the gap between conventional generation and the intermittent generation only by placing bids to the market. Thus, an optimal bid is introduced, which purpose is to minimize the regulation costs and thus lower the marginal costs of wind power. In order to make real life simulations in Nord Pool, a wind power forecast model was created. The simulations were done in years 2009 and 2010 by using a real wind power data provided by Hyötytuuli, market data from Nord Pool and wind forecast data provided by Finnish Meteorological Institute. The optimal bid needs probability intervals and therefore the methodology to create probability distributions is introduced in this thesis. In the end of the thesis it is shown that the optimal bidding improves the position of wind power producer in the electricity market.