Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Developing the Product Return Process of a Service Center With Lean Methods

Today lean-philosophy has gathered a lot of popularity and interest in many industries. This customer-oriented philosophy helps to understand customer’s value creation which can be used to improve efficiency. A comprehensive study of lean and lean-methods in service industry were created in this research. In theoretical part lean-philosophy is studied in different levels which will help to understand its diversity. To support lean, this research also presents basic concepts of process management. Lastly theoretical part presents a development model to support process development in systematical way. The empirical part of the study was performed by performing experimental measurements during the service center’s product return process and by analyzing this data. Measurements were used to map out factors that have a negative influence on the process flow. Several development propositions were discussed to remove these factors. Problems mainly occur due to challenges in controlling customers and due to the lack of responsibility and continuous improvement on operational level. Development propositions concern such factors as change in service center’s physical environment, standardization of work tasks and training. These factors will remove waste in the product return process and support the idea of continuous improvement.

What do Sports Sponsors Really Want? The effects of service quality, service value and customer satisfaction on behavioral intentions in sports sponsorship context

The aim of this Master’s thesis was to study the antecedents of customer satisfaction and behavioral intentions and their relative relationships in the sports sponsorship context. The possible antecedents under investigation in the current research are service value and service quality. As the academic background in the sports sponsorship literature is still rather modest there was a need for further empirical testing. The theoretical part of the research builds on the existing services marketing literature with sports sponsorship and business-to-business contexts in mind. The empirical study focused on the case company Liiga-SaiPa Oy. The data for the empirical analysis was collected via quantitative online survey. The total sample consisted of 357 the case company’s business customers and a total of 80 usable responses were collected. The data was analyzed by using statistical analysis software, SPSS. According to the results of the empirical analysis the most important antecedent of behavioral intentions in the underlying context is customer satisfaction. Also service value was found to have a direct and positive relationship with behavioral intentions. Moreover no indirect relationships through satisfaction were found between service quality and service value and behavioral intentions. However both constructs of service value and service quality were diagnosed to have a direct and positive effect on customer satisfaction. Service quality was also found to be a direct antecedent of service value with other service value benefits. However a contradicting finding with the current literature was, that service value sacrifices were not found to have a significant relationship with overall service value perceptions.

Point Of No Return: Dope Sick Love and Reindeerspotting as Documentaries of Addiction

In this postgraduate thesis the focus is on two documentary films, Renaud Brothers's Dope Sick Love (2005) and Joonas Neuvonen's Reindeerspotting (2010). In both of these films, addicts are on limelight. The directors of both films follow addicts and their everyday lives on streets with handheld cameras. This thesis will analyze and compare the narratives of these addicts. Do these documentaries affirm to the existing conventions, according to which representations of addicts and addiction are always either miraculous survival stories or stories, which always end up in utter decadence. The main questions this thesis proposes, are how addicts and their narratives are being handled in the two case study films, and how the drug cultures depicted in the films differ from each other. What changes between New York City and Rovaniemi, Northern Finland, and what remains the same. The academic and theoretical framework of this thesis consists of Susanna Helke's doctoral thesis Nanookin jälki, where the history of documentary films' methods and approaches are discussed. Additionally, the thinking is heavily informed by such poststructuralist writers as Roland Barthes, Michel Foucault, Louis Althusser, Stuart Hall and Chris Weedon.

Factors Affecting Consumer Investment Intentions. Empirical Evidence from Finland

The thesis aims to build a theoretical model to explain consumer investment intentions in stocks and investment funds. The model examines the relationships between subjective investment knowledge, expected sacrifice, expected investment value, compatibility, perceived behavioral control and investment intentions. The data was collected via web-based survey and consisted of 45- to 65-year-old Finnish consumers (n=154). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), structural equation modeling (SEM) and t-tests were applied in analyzing the data. The results suggest that among average household consumers expected investment value consists of three dimensions, namely, economic, functional, and emotional, whereas expected sacrifice consists of effort, financial risk, source risk, and psychological risk. Two structural models were assessed, one for stock investments and one for investment funds. Whereas the models presented somewhat different outcomes, in both models compatibility had an essential role in explaining consumer investment intentions. Compatibility was affected by expected investment value and expected sacrifice. Subjective investment knowledge impacted consumers’ evaluations of the value and sacrifices. The effect of perceived behavioral control on investment intentions was rather small, however significant. Moreover, the results suggest that there are significant differences between consumers with no investment experience and consumers with investment experience in subjective investment knowledge, the dimensions of expected sacrifices and expected investment value, perceived behavioral control, compatibility and investment intentions.

Return and Volatility spillovers among stock and Foreign Exchange Markets: Empirical Evidence from selected African Markets

Return and volatility dynamics in financial markets across the world have recently become important for the purpose of asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk management. However, volatility, which come about as a result of the actions of market participants can help adapt to different situations and perform when it really matters. With recent development and liberalization among financial markets in emerging and frontier markets, the need for how the equity and foreign exchange markets interact and the extent to which return and volatility spillover are spread across countries is of importance to investors and policy makers at large. Financial markets in Africa have received attention leading to investors diversifying into them in times of crisis and contagion effects in developed countries. Regardless of the benefits these markets may offer, investors must be wary of issues such as thin trading, volatility that exists in the equity and currency markets and its related fluctuations. The study employs a VAR-GARCH BEKK model to study the return and volatility dynamics between the stock and foreign exchange sectors and among the equity markets of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. The main findings suggest a higher dependence of own return in the stock markets and a one way return spillover from the currencies to the equity markets except for South Africa which has a weaker interrelation among the two markets. There is a relatively limited integration among the equity markets. Return and volatility spillover is mostly uni-directional except for a bi-directional relationship between the equity markets of Egypt and Tunisia. The study implication still proves a benefit for portfolio managers diversifying in these African equity markets, since they are independent of each other and may not be highly affected by the influx of negative news from elsewhere. However, there is the need to be wary of return and volatility spillover between the equity and currency markets, hence devising better hedging strategies to curb them.

A performance analysis of conventional and fundamental exchange traded funds: ETFs and their risk-return characteristics in relation to building institutional investor’s passive portfolio

An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a financial instrument that tracks some predetermined index. Since their initial establishment in 1993, ETFs have grown in importance in the field of passive investing. The main reason for the growth of the ETF industry is that ETFs combine benefits of stock investing and mutual fund investing. Although ETFs resemble mutual funds in many ways, also many differences occur. In addition, ETFs not only differ from mutual funds but also differ among each other. ETFs can be divided into two categories, i.e. market capitalisation ETFs and fundamental (or strategic) ETFs, and further into subcategories depending on their fundament basis. ETFs are a useful tool for diversification especially for a long-term investor. Although the economic importance of ETFs has risen drastically during the past 25 years, the differences and risk-return characteristics of fundamental ETFs have yet been rather unstudied area. In effect, no previous research on market capitalisation and fundamental ETFs was found during the research process. For its part, this thesis seeks to fill this research gap. The studied data consist of 50 market capitalisation ETFs and 50 fundamental ETFs. The fundaments, on which the indices that the fundamental ETFs track, were not limited nor segregated into subsections. The two types of ETFs were studied at an aggregate level as two different research groups. The dataset ranges from June 2006 to December 2014 with 103 monthly observations. The data was gathered using Bloomberg Terminal. The analysis was conducted as an econometric performance analysis. In addition to other econometric measures, the methods that were used in the performance analysis included modified Value-at-Risk, modified Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The results supported the hypothesis that passive market capitalisation ETFs outperform active fundamental ETFs in terms of risk-adjusted returns, though the difference is rather small. Nevertheless, when taking into account the higher overall trading costs of the fundamental ETFs, the underperformance gap widens. According to the research results, market capitalisation ETFs are a recommendable diversification instrument for a long-term investor. In addition to better risk-adjusted returns, passive ETFs are more transparent and the bases of their underlying indices are simpler than those of fundamental ETFs. ETFs are still a young financial innovation and hence data is scarcely available. On future research, it would be valuable to research the differences in risk-adjusted returns also between the subsections of fundamental ETFs.

Khrushchev's Beau Geste: the Return of Porkkala and its Global Significance

The return of the Porkkala naval base, which was leased to the Soviet Union at the end of World War II was unexpectedly returned in early 1956, 42 years before the USSR's lease on the area was to expire. There is no commonly accepted reason, and therefore the purpose of this work is to study the possible motives behind the return of Porkkala. These seem to have been reflected in the new foreign policy after the death of Stalin, which went far beyond returning Porkkala to Finland. The Soviet Union's courting of the non-aligned powers during this time, into which category Finland was assigned, also seems to be more than coincidence. However, the greater events of 1956, and the fact that Porkkala is remembered almost exclusively in Finland may have conspired to trap the events around Porkkala into the smaller narrative of Finnish-Soviet relations and the rise of Kekkonen to the presidency, due in no small part to his presence in negotiating the return of Porkkala. However this does not negate the message that Porkkala was intended to broadcast the USSR's new approach to neutrality. Through primary and secondary sources, gleaned from archives in Finland, memoirs of people involved, and historical literature, this thesis hopes to broaden the view that Porkkala's main and only significance lay in the changes it brought to Finnish-Soviet relations.

Return and volatility linkages between the S&P 500 and emerging stock markets in Eastern Europe

The aim of this thesis is to research mean return spillovers as well as volatility spillovers from the S&P 500 stock index in the USA to selected stock markets in the emerging economies in Eastern Europe between 2002 and 2014. The sample period has been divided into smaller subsamples, which enables taking different market conditions as well as the unification of the World’s capital markets during the financial crisis into account. Bivariate VAR(1) models are used to analyze the mean return spillovers while the volatility linkages are analyzed through the use of bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) models. The results show both constant volatility pooling within the S&P 500 as well as some statistically significant spillovers of both return and volatility from the S&P 500 to the Eastern European emerging stock markets. Moreover, some of the results indicate that the volatility spillovers have increased as time has passed, indicating unification of global stock markets.

Consumer perceived risk, risk reduction strategies and transaction intentions in online marketplaces

Even though online commerce has garnered vast academic interest during the recent years, theoretical grounds for consumer behavior online still remains ambiguous. Despite the globally rapid growth of online commerce, only a fraction of Internet browsers end up purchasing goods online. This is argued to be caused by the intangible and distant nature of the Internet, causing overwhelming perceived risks for consumers and negatively affecting transaction intentions. To combat perceived risks, consumers may actively or passively seek to relieve those risks to tolerable level. These risk reduction strategies refer to both institutional mechanisms as well as consumer risk reduction strategies. The objective of this thesis is to provide further understanding upon the relationships between consumer perceived risk, risk reduction strategies and transaction intentions in online marketplaces. To serve the objectives of the present thesis, a quantitative approach was chosen as the method for conducting empirical research. The data was collected with an online survey through discussion board, using a random sample approach. The proposed research model was examined with a set of hierarchical regression analyses. Results revealed several direct relationships as well as moderating interaction effects. The key finding of this thesis is that institutional risk reduction mechanisms significantly contribute to consumer perceived risks. These mechanisms have the potential to reduce perceived risks, and therefore may stimulate transaction intentions. Additionally, it was observed that risk reduction strategies moderate the relationship between intermediary provided risk relievers, consumer perceived risks and transaction intentions. Retailer related risk reduction strategies were also shown to enforce the effectiveness of payment methods; however feedback and monitoring mechanism was shown to have a diminishing effect of perceived risk only when consumers did not rely on product related risk reduction strategies. The present thesis also illustrates the importance of effective information search, as those consumers are more willing to transact as the perceived risks become less significant. For managerial purposes, the importance of well-functioning institutional mechanisms cannot be emphasized enough.