Is it possible to utilize VIX for a profitable trading strategy of S&P 500 Index?

The goal of this research was to make an overall sight to VIX® and how it can be used as a stock market indicator. Volatility index often referred as the fear index, measures how much it costs for investor to protect his/her S&P 500 position from fluctuations with options. Over the relatively short history of VIX it has been a successful timing coordinator and it has given incremental information about the market state adding its own psychological view of the amount of fear and greed. Correctly utilized VIX information gives a considerable advantage in timing market actions. In this paper we test how VIX works as a leading indicator of broad stock market index such as S&P 500 (SPX). The purpose of this paper is to find a working way to interpret VIX. The various tests are made on time series data ranging from the year 1990 to the year 2010. The 10-day simple moving average strategy gave significant profits from the whole time when VIX data is available. Strategy was able to utilize the increases of SPX in example portfolio value and was able to step aside when SPX was declining. At the times when portfolio was aside of S it was on safety fund like on treasury bills getting an annual yield of 3 percent. On the other side just a static number’s of VIX did not work as indicators in a profit making way.

Indicent reporting in shipping. Experiences and best practices for the Baltic Sea

Incident and near miss reporting is one of the proactive tools of safety management. By analyzing incidents and near misses and by corrective actions, severe accidents can potentially be avoided. Near miss and incident reporting is widely used in many riskprone industries such as aviation or chemical industry. In shipping incident and near miss reporting is required by the mandatory safety management system International Safety Management Code (ISM Code). However, in several studies the conclusion has been that incidents are reported poorly in the shipping industry. The aim of this report is to highlight the best practices for incident reporting in shipping and to support the shipping industry in the better utilization of incident reporting information. The study consists of three parts: 1) voluntary, shared reporting systems in shipping (international experiences), 2) interview study at four shipping companies in Sweden and in Finland (best practices), 3) expert workshop on incident reporting (problems and solutions). Preconditions for a functional reporting system are an existing no blame culture, commitment of the top management, feedback, good communication, training and an easy-to-use system. Although preconditions are met, problems can still appear, for example due to psychological, interpersonal or nationality-related reasons. In order to keep the reporting system functioning, the shipping company must be committed to maintain and develop the system and to tackle the problems. The whole reporting process from compiling, handling and analyzing a report, creating corrective actions and implementing them has to be handled properly in order to gain benefits from the reporting system. In addition to avoiding accidents, the functional reporting system can also offer other benefits by increasing safety awareness, by improving the overall safety and working conditions onboard, by enhancing team work and communication onboard and between ships and the land-based organization of shipping companies. Voluntary shared reporting systems are supported in the shipping industry in principle, but their development in the Baltic Sea is still in its infancy and the potential benefits of sharing the reports have not been realized. On the basis of this study we recommend that a common reporting system be developed for the Baltic Sea area which all the ships operating in the area could use regardless of their flag. Such a wider system could prevent some of the problems related to the current national systems. There would be more incident cases available in the database and this would support anonymity and thus encourage shipping companies to report to a shared database more frequently. A shared reporting system would contribute to the sharing of experiences and to the wider use of incident information in the shipping industry.

Work-related crisis exposure : psychological trauma and PTSD in news journalists

I avhandlingen undersöktes hur journalister själva reagerar efter att ha arbetat med en plötslig krissituation, samt vilka faktorer som kan bidra till en förhöjd risk för allvarliga långsiktiga stressymptom. Temat undersöktes (1) genom att se på hur journalisters tidigare erfarenheter av krisuppdrag och traumatiska upplevelser i privatlivet var relaterade till stressymptom (posttraumatiskt stressyndrom, sekundär traumatisk stress, depression och utmattningssyndrom), och (2) genom att studera riskfaktorer i en identifierad typ av kris, de finländska skolskjutningarna 2007-08. Avhandlingens resultat baserades på enkätsvar från finländska nyhetsjournalister (N = 503) och intervjuer med personer som jobbat på plats vid skolskjutningar (N = 28). En klar majoritet av journalisterna hade inte allvarliga långsiktiga stressymptom vid tiden för undersökningen. De som varit på ett tidigare krisuppdrag där man bevittnat många obehagliga detaljer hade fler allvarliga stressymptom. En annan riskfaktor var att ha ett förflutet med fler traumatiska händelser i privatlivet. Bland de som arbetat med skolskjutningar var starka kortsiktiga reaktioner, t.ex. hjälplöshet och chock, relativt vanliga. Reaktionerna hörde ändå oftast till den normala återhämtningsprocessen, och ledde inte till en långsiktig försämring av måendet. Journalister som i hög grad identifierade sig med krisen, t.ex. personer med egna barn, hade större risk för att drabbas av allvarliga symptom på lång sikt. Detsamma gällde de som på plats upplevt journalistiska etiska dilemman, t.ex. att beordras av överordnade till uppdrag som gick emot egna principer. För att förebygga psykisk stress bland journalister är det viktigt att inom branschen sprida kunskap om stressreaktioner och utveckla rekommendationer för etisk krisjournalistik. Därmed kan journalister få bättre verktyg för att minimera risken att via sitt yrkesutövande orsaka ytterligare skada åt krisdrabbade.

Establishment of a health and safety management system according to the OHSAS 18001 standard

The thesis develops guidelines for the implementation of the health and safety management system according to the OHSAS 18001 standard, as well as the feasible threat analysis, project proposal schedule, future system quality improvements and organizational change evaluation. The theoretical part clarifies determination of occupational health and safety, its management system, the OHSAS 18001 standard and integrated management system compounded of triple ISO 14001, ISO 9001 and OHSAS 18001 standards. The literature includes such important aspects as human factor, organizational policies, possible benefits, threats, organizational safety culture, Deming’s quality improvement cycle, system implementation, maintenance and cost matters. The empirical part demonstrates real-life situation by using Andritz Pulp & Paper Oy as a case study. Prior the thesis proposal, Andritz Group is analysed including separate business areas, acquisition and integration strategies, current status of the health and safety management and parallel experiences of the largest business area Andritz Hydro. The proposal is aimed at improving the current health and safety system for the permanent and sub-contracted employees at Andritz Pulp & Paper both in Finland and in various projects globally.

The Anchoring Bias of Investors and the 52-Week High Momentum Strategy in the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange: Psychological Approach to Market Efficiency

The behavioural finance literature expects systematic and significant deviations from efficiency to persist in securities markets due to behavioural and cognitive biases of investors. These behavioural models attempt to explain the coexistence of intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversals in stock returns based on the systematic violations of rational behaviour of investors. The study investigates the anchoring bias of investors and the profitability of the 52-week momentum strategy (GH henceforward). The relatively highly volatile OMX Helsinki stock exchange is a suitable market for examining the momentum effect, since international investors tend to realise their positions first from the furthest security markets by the time of market turbulence. Empirical data is collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the OMX Nordic website. The objective of the study is to provide a throughout research by formulating a self-financing GH momentum portfolio. First, the seasonality of the strategy is examined by taking the January effect into account and researching abnormal returns in long-term. The results indicate that the GH strategy is subject to significantly negative revenues in January, but the strategy is not prone to reversals in long-term. Then the predictive proxies of momentum returns are investigated in terms of acquisition prices and 52-week high statistics as anchors. The results show that the acquisition prices do not have explanatory power over the GH strategy’s abnormal returns. Finally, the efficacy of the GH strategy is examined after taking transaction costs into account, finding that the robust abnormal returns remain statistically significant despite the transaction costs. As a conclusion, the relative distance between a stock’s current price and its 52-week high statistic explains the profits of momentum investing to a high degree. The results indicate that intermediateterm momentum and long-term reversals are separate phenomena. This presents a challenge to current behavioural theories, which model these aspects of stock returns as subsequent components of how securities markets respond to relevant information.

Safety study of hydrogen peroxide direct synthesis

Kandidaatintyön johdantokappaleessa esitellään vetyperoksidi ja mihin sitä käytetään teollisuudessa. Työssä vertaillaan antrakinoniprosessia ja suoraa prosessia sekä selvitetään nykyisin enemmän vetyperoksidituotantoon käytetyn antrakinoniprosessin ongelmakohdat ja osoitetaan, miksi suora synteesi vetyperoksidin tuotannossa olisi parempi vaihtoehto. Kandidaatintyön käsittelee suurilta osin turvallisuusongelmia, joita esiintyy suoran synteesin yhteydessä. Kirjallisuudesta on etsitty ratkaisuja näihin ongelmiin, kuten membraaniprosessin käyttöä räjähdysvaaran välttämiseksi. Pienemmän reaktorin eli ns. mikroreaktorin käyttö tuo mukanaan monia etuja vetyperoksidin tuotantoon. Tällöin prosessi on turvallisempi ja sitä on helpompi hallita. Mikroreaktorissa voidaan käyttää korkeampia lämpötiloja ja paineita kuin makroreaktorilla ilman, että räjähdysvaara prosessissa kasvaisi. Mikroreaktorin sisällä olevat mikrokanavat luovat turvallisen ympäristön synteesille. Aspen plus – simulointiohjelmalla mallinnettiin ja simulointiin suoran prosessin kriittisiä virtoja mikroreaktorissa. Tarkoituksena oli löytää virrat, joissa kulkee mahdollisesti räjähtävä kaasuseos. Kaasumaiset prosessivirrat ovat kriittisimmät vetyperoksidin suorassa synteesissä, koska ne aiheuttavat todennäköisemmin räjähdyksen kuin nestemäiset prosessivirrat. Kaikkein eniten prosessiturvallisuutta uhkaavat ainevirrat ennen ja jälkeen mikroreaktoria.

Productivity and Services – Safety Telephone Services for the Elderly

Previous research on productivity is often associated with manufacturing or uses manufacturing definitions of productivity. Marketing research on services has not been satisfied with the manufacturing definitions. No universal definition for service productivity exists. The lack of a universal definition highlights the complexity entailed in the concept of productivity. The objective of this study was to investigate service productivity in situations, where traditional ways are in some cases even not possible or are not enough. In one definition of the productivity of service organisations there is the efficiency of the organisation on the input side and on the output side the customers’ perceived quality or value-in-use. To learn about value-in-use, many methods have been developed. A common practice is to make customer opinion surveys in the form of customer questionnaires and interviews. However, customers cannot always be asked directly, for example, because of impaired cognitive abilities. Such cases include the elderly and children. Furthermore, customer opinion surveys are time consuming. In addition, customers do not always know what kind of services they would benefit from. For the empirical part of the study, a business area was identified where traditional ways of measuring value-in-use are difficult or in some cases even not possible. This business area is safety telephone services. These services are most often used by the elderly. The way to define value-in-use here was to assess how well the services offered met customer expectations. Comparing the services customers asked for and the services provided to them indicated whether customer expectations were met. This study showed that customers had their ideas concerning the contents of the services but many times the services provided did not meet these expectations. Organisational efficiency aspirations can decrease customers’ value-in-use. This study found a solution, in which increasing organisational efficiency would go hand-in-hand with increasing customers’ value-in-use; the result being that the organisations’ needs and the service users’ expectations were in line. Value creation for customers produced organisational efficiency and thus increased productivity. In this study, customer expectations were observed by means of wellness technology. With the help of modern technology, customer expectations can be followed quickly and easily and customers can co-create with the organisation. This type of an approach could be useful even in the development of other services for other ages and in different contexts. If a service organisation decreases the number of personnel and, at the same time, tries to offer services to the same or a larger clientele, customers easily notice the change, which is often negative. To avoid harmful decrease in value-in-use, limitations to the aspiration of efficiency should be implemented – one of such is that the organisation is required to meet certain quality standards defined by experts. The aim is to secure that, as a result of efficiency aspirations in the organisation, the quality of the service offerings does not diminish below mutually agreed standards. Traditionally, when productivity in services has been estimated, organisational efficiency has not been combined with both customer expectations and an expert assessment of quality. This study contributes with novel thinking entitled ‘Relationship Management of the Elderly’. This study handles productivity, expert defined quality and value-in-use in an organisational context, which is practically untouched in previous research studies.

Overview on the Cost-effectiveness of Maritime Safety Policy Instruments

Maritime safety is an issue that has gained a lot of attention in the Baltic Sea area due to the dense maritime traffic and transportation of oil in the area. Lots of effort has been paid to enhance maritime safety in the area. The risk exists that excessive legislation and other requirements mean more costs for limited benefit. In order to utilize both public and private resources efficiently, awareness is required of what kind of costs maritime safety policy instruments cause and whether the costs are in relation to benefits. The aim of this report is to present an overview of the cost-effectiveness of maritime safety policy instruments focusing on the cost aspect: what kind of costs maritime safety policy causes, to whom, what affects the cost-effectiveness and how cost-effectiveness is studied. The study is based on a literature review and on the interviews of Finnish maritime experts. The results of this study imply that cost-effectiveness is a complicated issue to evaluate. There are no uniform practices for which costs and benefits should be included in the evaluation and how they should be valued. One of the challenges is how to measure costs and benefits during the course of a longer time period. Often a lack of data erodes the reliability of evaluation. In the prevention of maritime accidents, costs typically include investments in ship structures or equipment, as well as maintenance and labor costs. Also large investments may be justifiable if they respectively provide significant improvements to maritime safety. Measures are cost-effective only if they are implemented properly. Costeffectiveness is decreased if a measure causes overlapping or repetitious work. Costeffectiveness is also decreased if the technology isn’t user-friendly or if it is soon replaced with a new technology or another new appliance. In future studies on the cost-effectiveness of maritime safety policy, it is important to acknowledge the dependency between different policy instruments and the uncertainty of the factors affecting cost-effectiveness. The costs of a single measure are rarely relatively significant and the effect of each measure on safety tends to be positive. The challenge is to rank the measures and to find the most effective combination of different policy instruments. The greatest potential offered for the analysis of cost-effectiveness of individual measures is their implementation in clearly defined risk situations, in which different measures are truly alternative to each other. Overall, maritime safety measures do not seem to be considered burdening for the shipping industry in Finland at the moment. Generally actors in the Finnish shipping industry seem to find maintaining a high safety level important and act accordingly.

Maritime safety in the Gulf of Finland. Evaluation of the regulatory system

Growing traffic is believed to increase the risk of an accident in the Gulf of Finland. As the consequences of a large oil accident would be devastating in the vulnerable sea area, accident prevention is performed at the international, regional and national levels. Activities of shipping companies are governed with maritime safety policy instruments, which can be categorised into regulatory, economic and information instruments. The maritime regulatory system has been criticised for being inefficient because it has not been able to eliminate the violations that enable accidents. This report aims to discover how maritime governance systems or maritime safety policy instruments could be made more efficient in the future, in order to improve the maritime safety level. The results of the research are based on a literature review and nine expert interviews, with participants from shipping companies, interest groups and authorities. Based on the literature and the interviews, a suggestion can be made that in the future, instead of implementing new policy instruments, maritime safety risks should be eliminated by making the existing system more efficient and by influencing shipping companies’ safety culture and seafarers’ safety related attitudes. Based on this research, it can be stated that the development of maritime safety policy instruments should concentrate on harmonisation, automation and increasing national and cross-border cooperation. These three tasks could be primarily accomplished by developing the existing technology. Human error plays a role in a significant number of maritime accidents. Because of this, improving companies’ safety culture and voluntary activities that go beyond laws are acknowledged as potential ways of improving maritime safety. In the future, maritime regulatory system should be developed into a direction where the private sector has better possibilities to take part in decision-making.

Gamification as a means for employee motivation, personal engagement and behavioral outcomes: a gamification system developers’ perspective

A major challenge faced by companies today is the engagement gap at the workplace and how to motivate employees to engage in less intrinsically motivating work activities that are valuable for the organization. The objective of this study is to investigate gamification as a means for employee motivation and personal engagement that result in behavioral outcomes from the gamification developers’ perspective. Theories of work motivation and engagement are viewed in relation to gamification. The empirical part conducts a qualitative multiple-case study. The data is analyzed with the CAQDAS NVivo. The empirical findings suggest that gamification can enhance employee motivation, but careful consideration of extrinsic motivators is necessary to avoid their detrimental effect on intrinsic motivation. Employee self-determination is built through internalization of gamified system’s goals reaching autonomous motivation to engage in the target behavior. Employee engagement is built by fulfilling the psychological conditions of meaningfulness, safety and availability. The results suggest that gamification can build employee motivation and engagement leading to behavior change if designed with the business objectives in mind. Moreover, the gamified system needs to be renewed to address the changes in the business environment and reflect them in the employee behavior.

Dam safety guide

A new Dam Safety Act (494/2009) came into force on 1st October 2009 and a Government Decree on Dam Safety (319/2010) on 5th May 2010. This Dam Safety Guide replaces the Dam Safety Code of Practice (Publication of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 7/1997), removed from circulation on 1st October 2009. The Dam Safety Guide is not binding on the dam owner; the purpose is to complement and elucidate the relevant law and and decree through examples and descriptions. The Guide takes up questions concerning dam design, for instance hydrological dimensioning and technical safety requirements, dam construction and use, the dam break hazard analysis and the dam owner’s emergency action plan, maintenance, use, monitoring as well as the annual and periodic inspections. Dams are classified according to the hazard they pose into class 1, 2 or 3 dams. The classification is not needed, if, according to the dam safety authority, the dam poses no danger. The owner of a classified dam must prepare a monitoring programme, to be approved by decision of the dam safety authority. To establish the hazard caused by a dam, the owner of a class 1 dam must prepare an analysis of the dam hazard to humans and property as well as to the environment. The dam safety authority may also require a dam break hazard analysis for a dam other than class 1 dam if deemed necessary for classification. The owner of a class 1 dam must prepare a plan of measures in case of emergency or operational failure. The plan shall present the dam owner’s state of preparedness to act on their own initiative in the situations described above. In each case, the rescue authorities make a separate assessment for the need to prepare a plan as set out in the Rescue Act. The dam owner must provide the information specified in the Dam Safety Decree to be entered into the dam safety information system. The dam safety authority and the owner of the dam must keep up-to-date printouts in their own dam safety files from the information system for each dam as well as other important documents connected with dam safety to ensure that these are readily available in case of disturbance.

Effects of physical activity and fitness on the psychological wellbeing of young men and working adults: associations with stress, mental resources, overweight and workability

Background: A positive association has been suggested to exist between physical activity and psychological wellbeing. However, the association between physical fitness, especially muscle fitness and psychological wellbeing, has not yet been fully elucidated. Aims: The objective of the present thesis was to assess the relationship between physical activity and physical fitness with stress symptoms, mental resources and workability among young men and working adults. Subjects and methods: Volunteers of young men (n=831, mean age 25-y (±4.0)), underwent a cardiorespiratory (CRF) and muscle fitness (MFI) test and completed leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and Occupational Stress Questionnaires (OSQ). The participants were divided into tertiles according to LTPA, CRF and MFI. A 12-month exercise intervention evaluated 371 working adults (exercise group, n=338, mean age 45-y (±8.8)); control group, n=33, mean age 41-y (±6.9)).The exercise group underwent a 12-month exercise program followed by a 12-month follow-up. The OSQ, Workability Index (WAI) and CRF were evaluated at baseline and at 4, 8, 12 and 24 months. Results: Physically inactive subjects reported more stress and less available mental resources than the subjects who reported high physical activity levels. Improved physical fitness was associated with less stress and more mental resources among normal weight men, but not in overweight men. After a 12-month exercise intervention, employees in the exercise group increased their physical activity, improved workability, decreased stress symptoms and improved their physical fitness and mental resources. After the follow-up year, workability and stress were improved compared to baseline. Conclusions: In this thesis, good physical fitness was associated with improved psychological wellbeing among young men and working adults.

Rigorous development of safety-critical systems

Nowadays, computer-based systems tend to become more complex and control increasingly critical functions affecting different areas of human activities. Failures of such systems might result in loss of human lives as well as significant damage to the environment. Therefore, their safety needs to be ensured. However, the development of safety-critical systems is not a trivial exercise. Hence, to preclude design faults and guarantee the desired behaviour, different industrial standards prescribe the use of rigorous techniques for development and verification of such systems. The more critical the system is, the more rigorous approach should be undertaken. To ensure safety of a critical computer-based system, satisfaction of the safety requirements imposed on this system should be demonstrated. This task involves a number of activities. In particular, a set of the safety requirements is usually derived by conducting various safety analysis techniques. Strong assurance that the system satisfies the safety requirements can be provided by formal methods, i.e., mathematically-based techniques. At the same time, the evidence that the system under consideration meets the imposed safety requirements might be demonstrated by constructing safety cases. However, the overall safety assurance process of critical computerbased systems remains insufficiently defined due to the following reasons. Firstly, there are semantic differences between safety requirements and formal models. Informally represented safety requirements should be translated into the underlying formal language to enable further veri cation. Secondly, the development of formal models of complex systems can be labour-intensive and time consuming. Thirdly, there are only a few well-defined methods for integration of formal verification results into safety cases. This thesis proposes an integrated approach to the rigorous development and verification of safety-critical systems that (1) facilitates elicitation of safety requirements and their incorporation into formal models, (2) simplifies formal modelling and verification by proposing specification and refinement patterns, and (3) assists in the construction of safety cases from the artefacts generated by formal reasoning. Our chosen formal framework is Event-B. It allows us to tackle the complexity of safety-critical systems as well as to structure safety requirements by applying abstraction and stepwise refinement. The Rodin platform, a tool supporting Event-B, assists in automatic model transformations and proof-based verification of the desired system properties. The proposed approach has been validated by several case studies from different application domains.