Generalized backward doubly stochastic differential equations and SPDEs with nonlinear Neumann boundary conditions

In this paper, a new class of generalized backward doubly stochastic differential equations is investigated. This class involves an integral with respect to an adapted continuous increasing process. A probabilistic representation for viscosity solutions of semi-linear stochastic partial differential equations with a Neumann boundary condition is given.

Real rank zero algebras have the corona factorization property

The purpose of this short note is to prove that a stable separable C*-algebra with real rank zero has the so-called corona factorization property, that is, all the full multiplier projections are properly in finite. Enroute to our result, we consider conditions under which a real rank zero C*-algebra admits an injection of the compact operators (a question already considered in [21]).

Tendències temporals de la mortalitat per càncer de fetge a Catalunya: periode 1983-2002 i projeccions pel 2005

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada al Finnish Cancer Registry a Helsinki, Finlandia entre setembre i novembre del 2006. Davant l’increment dels tumors hepàtics en països industrialitzats, s’avaluen les tendències temporals de la malaltia hepàtica a Catalunya durant el període 1983-2002 i s’estima la tendència futura a partir de l’any 2005. L’estudi s’ha basat en dades del Registre de Mortalitat de Catalunya i de l’Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya. La malaltia hepàtica inclou diverses tipologies de tumors hepàtics i la cirrosi hepàtica. Els models edad-període-cohort s’han emprat per estimar els efectes període de mortalitat i cohort de naixement. Els resultats han mostrat que les taxes de mortalitat per cirrosi han disminuït en ambdós sexes, exceptuant els homes d’entre els 35-50 anys, pels quals la mortalitat es mantingué estable. S’han observat increments en la mortalitat per carcinoma hepatocel•lular i en els tumors de vies biliars intrahepàtiques, mentre que les projeccions mostren estabilitat en la tendència d’aquestes malalties durant el període 2005-2009. Les tendències de la mortalitat per malaltia hepàtica constatades poden ser degudes a la implementació de teràpies noves, nous mètodes de diagnòstic, infecció pel virus de l’hepatitis C d’altres factors desconeguts.

Addressing the net balances problem as a prerequisite for EU budget reform: a proposal

Conflict among member states regarding the distribution of net financial burdens has been allowed to contaminate the entire design of the EU budget with very negative consequences in terms of equity, efficiency and transparency. To get around this problem and pave the way for a substantive budget reform, we propose to decouple distributional negotiations from the rest of the budget process by linking member state net balances in a rigid manner to relative prosperity. This would be achieved through the introduction of a system of compensating horizontal transfers that would take to its logical conclusion the Commission's proposal for a generalized compensation mechanism. We discuss the impact of the proposed scheme on member states? incentives and illustrate its financial implications using revenue and expenditure projections for 2013 that are based on the current Financial Perspectives and Own Resources Decision.

Spanish pension system: population aging and immigration policy

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029

Sistema integral d’anàlisi i avaluació d’un format general d’assignatura específic dels estudis de les arts

En el període 2006-2008, l'equip investigador de l'Observatori sobre la Didàctica de les Arts (ODAS) s'ha concentrat en la innovació i la investigació en el camp de la didàctica aplicada als estudis universitaris de les arts. Des del punt de vista propi de la investigació-acció, la finalitat ha estat la de plantejar i explorar una revisió integral de l'organització del treball a peu d'aula que fos extensible a d'altres assignatures i matèries. Així, prenent com a eix l'aprenentatge dels estudiants, les accions escomeses es fonamentaren en sis premisses: integració —de sessions de treball i activitats d'aprenentatge—, diversitat —d'escenaris, recursos i materials didàctics—, equilibri —entre coneixements i habilitats específiques i transversals—, modularitat —de les parts constitutives de la innovació proposada—, aplicabilitat —a d'altres assignatures i matèries— i progressió en la seva posada en marxa. I sobre aquestes bases, hom va establir cinc línies de treball: l'organització del treball a l'aula i del treball guiat de l'estudiant en diferents tipus de sessions, l'organització del treball autònom de l'alumne des dels pressupòsits d'una avaluació continuada, la incorporació de les TIC com autèntics recursos d'ensenyament-aprenentatge, la col·laboració amb d'altres unitats de la Universitat de Barcelona que tinguessin entre els seus objectius l'impuls de l'aprenentatge, i el seguiment del procés d'implantació de la iniciativa didàctica i l'anàlisi regular dels seus resultats. Pel que fa a aquest darrer punt, en aquest primer període, hom ha prioritzat l'estudi de les dades quantitatives i quasi-quantitatives derivades del judici dels alumnes que participaren en la nova proposta didàctica. En conseqüència, la investigació va acomplir una primera funció diagnòstica de la innovació docent duta a terme, i es va enquadrar en la categoria dels estudis descriptius transversals a través d'enquestes amb mostres probabilístiques.

Simultaneous Nash bargaining with consistent beliefs

We propose and analyze a new solution concept, the R solution, for three-person, transferable utility, cooperative games. In the spirit of the Nash Bargaining Solution, our concept is founded on the predicted outcomes of simultaneous, two-party negotiations that would be the alternative to the grand coalition. These possibly probabilistic predictions are based on consistent beliefs. We analyze the properties of the R solution and compare it with the Shapley value and other concepts. The R solution exists and is unique. It belongs to the bargaining set and to the core whenever the latter is not empty. In fact, when the grand coalition can simply execute one of the three possible bilateral trades, the R solution is the most egalitarian selection of the bargaining set. Finally, we discuss how the R solution changes important conclusions of several well known Industrial Organization models.

A parameter-free approach for solving combinatorial optimization problems through biased randomization of efficient heuristics

This paper discusses the use of probabilistic or randomized algorithms for solving combinatorial optimization problems. Our approach employs non-uniform probability distributions to add a biased random behavior to classical heuristics so a large set of alternative good solutions can be quickly obtained in a natural way and without complex conguration processes. This procedure is especially useful in problems where properties such as non-smoothness or non-convexity lead to a highly irregular solution space, for which the traditional optimization methods, both of exact and approximate nature, may fail to reach their full potential. The results obtained are promising enough to suggest that randomizing classical heuristics is a powerful method that can be successfully applied in a variety of cases.

Analisi espacial del canvi climàtic al continent europeu. Incerteses i exposicions principals

El canvi climàtic del segle XXI és una realitat, hi ha moltes evidències científiques que indiquen que l’escalfament del sistema climàtic és inequívoc. Malgrat això, també hi ha moltes incerteses respecte els impactes que pot comportar aquest canvi climàtic global. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és estudiar la possible evolució futura de tres variables climàtiques, que són el rang de la temperatura diürna a prop de la superfície (DTR), la temperatura mitjana a prop de la superfície (MT) i la precipitació mensual (PL_mes) i valorar l’exposició que poden experimentar diferents cobertes del sòl i diferents regions biogeogràfiques del continent europeu davant d’aquests possibles patrons de canvi. Per això s’han utilitzat Models Climàtics Globals que fan projeccions de variables climàtiques que permeten preveure el possible clima futur. Mitjançant l’aplicatiu informàtic Tetyn s’han extret els paràmetres climàtics dels conjunts de dades del Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, del futur (TYN SC) i del passat (CRU TS). Les variables obtingudes s’han processat amb eines de sistemes d’informació geogràfica (SIG) per obtenir els patrons de canvi de les variables a cada coberta del sòl. Els resultats obtinguts mostren que hi ha una gran variabilitat, que augmenta amb el temps, entre els diferents models climàtics i escenaris considerats, que posa de manifest la incertesa associada a la modelització climàtica, a la generació d’escenaris d’emissions i a la naturalesa dinàmica i no determinista del sistema climàtic. Però en general, mostren que les glaceres seran una de les cobertes més exposades al canvi climàtic, i la mediterrània, una de les regions més vulnerables

Incidència, mortalitat i supervivència per càncer a Catalunya 2007

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Universitat de Bonn, Alemanya, entre agost i desembre del 2008. Recentement, arran de la creació del Registre de Càncer de Catalunya, s'ha el.laborat un nou "estat de la qüestió" del càncer a Catalunya, que ha permès obtenir una imatge complerta de la incidència, mortalitat i supervivència del càncer a Catalunya, a partir de les dades obtingudes pels registres poblacionals del càncer de Girona i Tarragona pel que fa a la incidència del càncer, i pel registre de Mortalitat de Catalunya, pel que fa a la mortalitat per càncer. El projecte realitzat ha tingut dos objectius principals. En primer lloc, desenvolupar un conjunt integrat de funcions per al càlcul automatitzat de la incidència, mortalitat i supervivència, així com l'ajust dels models estadístics que permeten avaluar les tendències i obtenir les projeccions del càncer pels anys futurs. En segon lloc, s'han aplicat les funcions a les dades disponibles i s'han obtingut els resultats a Catalunya, que inclou les projeccions de la incìdència i mortalitat per càncer a Catalunya fins a l'any 2020. Tos dos objectius han estat substancialment assolits. Pel que fa al primer, s'ha desenvolupat un fitxer font en R que conté les macros i funcions utilitzades. Pel que fa al segon, les anàlisis realitzades han estat emprades per a la realització d'una monografia sobre el càncer a Catalunya, que actualment està acceptada per la seva publicació. Els resultats mostren que la incidència per càncer ha augmentat i està previst que així continuï, tot i que es preveu un esmoertiment de l'augment pels homes. Pel que fa a la mortalitat s'observa un recent decrement que es preveu que es mantingui en el futur, essent aquest major pels homes respecte les dones.

Recovering the Elliott invariant from the Cuntz semigroup

Let A be a simple, separable C*-algebra of stable rank one. We prove that the Cuntz semigroup of C (T, A) is determined by its Murray-von Neumann semigroup of projections and a certain semigroup of lower semicontinuous functions (with values in the Cuntz semigroup of A). This result has two consequences. First, specializing to the case that A is simple, finite, separable and Z-stable, this yields a description of the Cuntz semigroup of C (T, A) in terms of the Elliott invariant of A. Second, suitably interpreted, it shows that the Elliott functor and the functor defined by the Cuntz semigroup of the tensor product with the algebra of continuous functions on the circle are naturally equivalent.

Dynamical systems of type (m,n) and their C*-algebras

Given positive integers n and m, we consider dynamical systems in which n copies of a topological space is homeomorphic to m copies of that same space. The universal such system is shown to arise naturally from the study of a C*-algebra we denote by Om;n, which in turn is obtained as a quotient of the well known Leavitt C*-algebra Lm;n, a process meant to transform the generating set of partial isometries of Lm;n into a tame set. Describing Om;n as the crossed-product of the universal (m; n) -dynamical system by a partial action of the free group Fm+n, we show that Om;n is not exact when n and m are both greater than or equal to 2, but the corresponding reduced crossed-product, denoted Or m;n, is shown to be exact and non-nuclear. Still under the assumption that m; n &= 2, we prove that the partial action of Fm+n is topologically free and that Or m;n satisfies property (SP) (small projections). We also show that Or m;n admits no finite dimensional representations. The techniques developed to treat this system include several new results pertaining to the theory of Fell bundles over discrete groups.

Sound Texture Modelling

In the PhD thesis “Sound Texture Modeling” we deal with statistical modelling or textural sounds like water, wind, rain, etc. For synthesis and classification. Our initial model is based on a wavelet tree signal decomposition and the modeling of the resulting sequence by means of a parametric probabilistic model, that can be situated within the family of models trainable via expectation maximization (hidden Markov tree model ). Our model is able to capture key characteristics of the source textures (water, rain, fire, applause, crowd chatter ), and faithfully reproduces some of the sound classes. In terms of a more general taxonomy of natural events proposed by Graver, we worked on models for natural event classification and segmentation. While the event labels comprise physical interactions between materials that do not have textural propierties in their enterity, those segmentation models can help in identifying textural portions of an audio recording useful for analysis and resynthesis. Following our work on concatenative synthesis of musical instruments, we have developed a pattern-based synthesis system, that allows to sonically explore a database of units by means of their representation in a perceptual feature space. Concatenative syntyhesis with “molecules” built from sparse atomic representations also allows capture low-level correlations in perceptual audio features, while facilitating the manipulation of textural sounds based on their physical and perceptual properties. We have approached the problem of sound texture modelling for synthesis from different directions, namely a low-level signal-theoretic point of view through a wavelet transform, and a more high-level point of view driven by perceptual audio features in the concatenative synthesis setting. The developed framework provides unified approach to the high-quality resynthesis of natural texture sounds. Our research is embedded within the Metaverse 1 European project (2008-2011), where our models are contributting as low level building blocks within a semi-automated soundscape generation system.

Seeds of hope: Assessing the effect of development aid on the reduction of child mortality

The Millennium Declaration (2000) set as one of its targets a substantial reduction in child mortality. This paper studies whether the massive increase in development aid can account for part of the reduction in child mortality observed in developing countries since the year 2000. To do so, we analyze a panel of more than 130 developing countries over the 2000-2008 period. We use the time trend evolution of aid to identify an exogenous source of variation. Total aid has had no statistically significant effect on child mortality. However, a disaggregate analysis identifies certain sectors of aid that have had a significant impact. The effects have been larger in high mortality countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections based on our estimates strongly support the concern that most countries in that region will miss the Millennium Goals target on child mortality.

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis andovertreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were:age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population usedmammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis.Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively.Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools