168 resultados para probability indicator
Resumo:
Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is an important technique to obtain series of soil water content measurements in the field. Diode-segmented probes represent an improvement in TDR applicability, allowing measurements of the soil water content profile with a single probe. In this paper we explore an extensive soil water content dataset obtained by tensiometry and TDR from internal drainage experiments in two consecutive years in a tropical soil in Brazil. Comparisons between the variation patterns of the water content estimated by both methods exhibited evidences of deterioration of the TDR system during this two year period at field conditions. The results showed consistency in the variation pattern for the tensiometry data, whereas TDR estimates were inconsistent, with sensitivity decreasing over time. This suggests that difficulties may arise for the long-term use of this TDR system under tropical field conditions. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State Brazil. Water balances were carried out on a daily basis using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, for 165 sites, considering twelve sowings dates and available water capacity in the soil of 20, 40 and 60 mm. The net revenues were estimated with a probability of occurrence of 75%, later being spatialized to Piaui State. Cowpea irrigation was shown to economically viable for all sowing dates, irrespective of the available water capacity. Net revenues varied among several regions of the State, in function of the sowing date and available water capacity in the soil. Considering a planning strategy for Piaui State, sowing on February, I was shown to be most favorable, because it enabled higher net revenue values, covering larger areas of the State.
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Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.
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When building genetic maps, it is necessary to choose from several marker ordering algorithms and criteria, and the choice is not always simple. In this study, we evaluate the efficiency of algorithms try (TRY), seriation (SER), rapid chain delineation (RCD), recombination counting and ordering (RECORD) and unidirectional growth (UG), as well as the criteria PARF (product of adjacent recombination fractions), SARF (sum of adjacent recombination fractions), SALOD (sum of adjacent LOD scores) and LHMC (likelihood through hidden Markov chains), used with the RIPPLE algorithm for error verification, in the construction of genetic linkage maps. A linkage map of a hypothetical diploid and monoecious plant species was simulated containing one linkage group and 21 markers with fixed distance of 3 cM between them. In all, 700 F(2) populations were randomly simulated with and 400 individuals with different combinations of dominant and co-dominant markers, as well as 10 and 20% of missing data. The simulations showed that, in the presence of co-dominant markers only, any combination of algorithm and criteria may be used, even for a reduced population size. In the case of a smaller proportion of dominant markers, any of the algorithms and criteria (except SALOD) investigated may be used. In the presence of high proportions of dominant markers and smaller samples (around 100), the probability of repulsion linkage increases between them and, in this case, use of the algorithms TRY and SER associated to RIPPLE with criterion LHMC would provide better results. Heredity (2009) 103, 494-502; doi:10.1038/hdy.2009.96; published online 29 July 2009
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Florida Spodosols axe sandy, inherently low in Fe- and Al-based minerals, and sorb phosphorus (P) poorly. We evaluated runoff and leachate P losses from a typical Florida Spodosol amended with biosolids and triple superphosphate (TSP). Phosphorus losses were evaluated with traditional indoor rainfall simulations but used a double-deck box arrangement that allowed leaching and runoff to be determined simultaneously. Biosolids (Lakeland, OCUD, Milorganite, and Disney) represented contrasting values of total P, percent water-extractable p (PWEP), and percentage of solids. All P sources were surface applied at 224 kg P ha(-1), representing a soil P rate typical of N-based biosolids application. All biosolids-P sources lost less P than TSp, and leachate-P losses generally dominated. For Lakeland-amended I soil, bioavailable P (BAP) was mainly lost by runoff (81% of total BAP losses). This behavior was due to surface scaling and 1 drying after application of the slurry (31 g kg(-1) solids), material. For all other P sources, BAP losses in leachate were much,greater than in runoff, representing 94% of total BAP losses for TSP, 80% for Milorganite, 72% for Disney, and 69% for OCUD treatments. Phosphorus leaching can be extreme and represents a great concern in many coarse-textured Florida Spodosols, and other coastal plain soils with low P-sorption,capacities. The PWEP values of P sources were significantly correlared with total P and BAP losses in runoff and leachate. The PWEP of a source can serve as a good indicator of potential P loss when amended to sandy soils with low P-retention capacities.
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Plant communities on pastures adapt to varying frequencies and severities of defoliation through mechanisms capable of ensuring their longevity and photosynthetic efficiency. The objective of this experiment was to evaluate tiller population density, demographic patterns of tillering and population stability of palisadegrass swards subjected to four grazing intensities. Treatments corresponded to four sward steady state conditions (sward heights of 10, 20, 30 and 40 cm) generated by continuous stocking. Measurements of tiller population density and population dynamics were performed at 4 week intervals and the results were used to calculate tiller appearance, death and survival rates. Tiller appearance and death rate were used to calculate sward stability index. The results indicate that keeping swards low (10 cm or lower) may be prejudicial to persistency and productivity of palisadegrass. The results also indicate that a low tiller population alone should not be considered as an indicator of loss of productive potential and of reduced plant persistency, since swards may be stable even with low population of tillers.
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We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.
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This study aimed to evaluate the average behavior, the genotype x environment (GxE), adaptability and stability of seven soybean cultivars at three sowing dates in Uberlandia-MG. The tests were conducted at Capim Branco Farm, belonging to the Federal University of Uberlandia. Sowing was held on october 29 (1st season), november 24 (2nd season) and december 17 (3rd season) 2007. The experimental design was a randomized, seven genotypes (UFUS Xavante, UFUS Riqueza, UFUS Guarani, UFUS Milionaria, Msoy 8001, Msoy 8411 and Msoy 8914) with three replications in each of three sowing dates. Means were compared by Tukey test at 5% probability. Analysis of adaptability and phenotypic stability of genotypes was performed using the Eberhart and Russell (1966), Lin and Binns (1988) modified by Carneiro (1998) and centroid (NASCIMENTO et al., 2009). For grain yield, the cultivar UFUS Xavante was classified as specific adaptability to environment and high stability. The other cultivars were classified as being of general adaptability. For oil content, the cultivars Msoy 8914 and UFUS Xavante behaved as high stability and was classified as having high adaptability. For the character content of protein, all cultivars behaved as wide adaptability and low stability.
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P>Yellow and sweet passion fruit are insect-pollinated species native to the tropics. Fruits are used commercially for human consumption worldwide. The yellow passion fruit is an outcrossing species with self-incompatible flowers. However, the reproductive system of the sweet passion fruit (Passiflora alata) has not been well elucidated. The objective of this work was to characterize aspects of the mating system in the sweet passion fruit using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and microsatellite markers, particularly the rate of outcrossing in P. alata progenies. A multilocus outcrossing rate of t(m) = 0.994 was determined from RAPD and t(m) = 0.940 from microsatellites, supporting P. alata as an outcrossing species. The fixation indices of the maternal generation (F(m)) were -0.200 and 0.071 with RAPD and microsatellite loci, respectively, indicating the absence of inbreeding in the maternal generation. The paternity correlation (r(p)) varied from -0.008 with RAPD markers to 0.208 with microsatellite markers, suggesting a low probability of finding full sibs within the progenies. The results demonstrated that all progenies assessed in this study were derived from outcrossing.
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Researchers working with thermal comfort have been using enthalpy to measure thermal energy inside rural facilities, establishing indicator values for many situations of thermal comfort and heat stress. This variable turned out to be helpful in analyzing thermal exchange in livestock systems. The animals are exposed to an environment which is decisive for the thermoregulatory process, and, consequently, the reactions reflect states of thermal comfort or heat stress, the last being responsable for problems of sanity, behavior and productivity. There are researchers using enthalpy as a qualitative indicator of thermal environment of livestock such as poultry, cattle and hogs in tropical regions. This preliminary work intends to check different enthalpy equations using information from classical thermodynamics, and proposes a direct equation as thermal comfort index for livestock systems.
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Citrus sudden death (CSD) transmission was studied by graft-inoculation and under natural conditions. Young sweet orange trees on Rangpur rootstock were used as indicator plants. They were examined regularly for one or two characteristic markers of CSD: (i) presence of a yellow-stained layer of thickened bark on the Rangpur rootstock, and (ii) infection with the CSD-associated marafivirus. Based on these two markers, transmission of CSD was obtained, not only when budwood for graft-inoculation was taken from symptomatic, sweet orange trees on Rangpur, but also when the budwood sources were asymptomatic sweet orange trees on Cleopatra mandarin, indicating that the latter trees are symptomless carriers of the CSD agent. For natural transmission, 80 young indicator plants were planted within a citrus plot severely affected by CSD. Individual insect-proof cages were built around 40 indicator plants, and the other 40 indicator plants remained uncaged. Only two of the 40 caged indicator plants were affected by CSD, whereas 17 uncaged indicator plants showed CSD symptoms and were infected with the marafivirus. An additional 12 uncaged indicator plants became severely affected with citrus variegated chlorosis and were removed. These results strongly suggest that under natural conditions, CSD is transmitted by an aerial vector, such as an insect, and that the cages protected the trees against infection by the vector.
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This study aimed to verify the occurrence of Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. in raw milk produced in Brazil. On account of the poor microbiological quality of this product, possible interference from the indigenous microbiota in these pathogens was also evaluated. Two-hundred and ten raw milk samples were collected in four important milk-producing areas in Brazil, tested for L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. presence, and for enumeration of indicator microorganisms: mesophilic aerobes, total coliforms and Escherichia coli. The interference of the indigenous microbiota in the isolation procedures was also tested, as well the frequency of naturally occurring raw milk strains with antagonistic activity against both pathogens. The pathogens were not isolated in any raw milk sample, but poor microbiological quality was confirmed by the high levels of indicator microorganisms. When present at high levels, the indigenous microbiota generated an evident interference in the methodologies of L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. isolation, mainly when the pathogens appeared at low levels. Three-hundred and sixty raw milk strains were tested for antagonistic activity against both pathogens, and 91 (25.3%) showed inhibitory activity against L. monocytogenes and 33 (9.2%) against Salmonella spp. The majority of the antagonistic strains were identified as Lactic Acid Bacteria species, mainly Lactococcus lactis subsp. lactis and Enterococcus faecium, known by antimicrobial substance production.
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Brazilian propolis contains several phenolic compounds among which 5 diprenyl-4-hydroxycinnamic acid (artepillin-C) is commonly found in areas where flora is rich in Baccharis species. The quantification of artepillin-C has become an important factor as an indicator of Brazilian propolis quality and the compound may be used as a chemical marker for quality control in exportating green propolis. This work was to validate the method and evaluate the content of artepillin-C from 33 samples collected in different Brazilian regions. The method used was HPLC with UV-vis detection and a reversed-phase C-18 Column. The validation parameters studied were: linearity, accuracy, precision, quantification and detection limits. The results obtained were: detection limit = 0.0036 mu g/mL, quantification limit = 0.012 mu g/mL, accuracy = 0.0064 and 0.078, recovery 98-102%. Artepillin-C content varied from 0 to 11% depending on the geographical origin. Propolis from the southeast region presented the highest level of artepillin-C (5.0-11.0%). Whist that from the northeast region did not show any artepillin-C. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Objective: Elevated neutral lipid content and mRNA expression of class A scavenger receptor (SRA) have been found in the renal cortex of the bovine growth hormone (bGH) mouse model of progressive glomerulosclerosis (GS). We hypothesize that the increased expression of SRA precedes glomerular scarring in this model. Design: Real time RT-PCR and immunofluorescence were employed to measure SRA and collagen types I and IV in the bGH transgenic and control mice at 5 and 12 weeks (wk) of age to determine the chronology of change in SRA expression in relation to glomerular scarring. Alternative mechanisms for increasing glomerular lipid were assessed by measuring mRNA expression levels of low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDL-r), 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase (HMGR), and ATP-binding cassette transporter A1 (ABCA1). In addition, the involvement of macrophages in early GS was assessed by CD68 mRNA expression in kidney cortex. Results: Both mRNA and protein levels of SRA were significantly increased in 5-wk bGH compared with control mice, whereas the expression of collagen I and IV was unaltered. Unchanged levels of LDL-r and HMGR mRNA indicate that neither regulated cholesterol uptake via LDL-r nor the cholesterol synthetic pathway played a role in the early lipid increase. The finding of increased ABCA1 expression was an indicator of excess intracellular lipid in the renal cortex of bGH mice at 5 wk. CD68 expression in bGH did not differ significantly from that of controls at 5 wk suggesting that cortical macrophage infiltration was not increased in bGH mice at this time point. Conclusion: An early increase in SRA mRNA and protein expression in the bGH kidney precedes glomerular scarring and is independent of macrophage influx. Published by Elsevier Ltd. on behalf of Growth Hormone Research Society.
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BACKGROUND: Biosurfactant production was investigated using two strains of Bacillus subtilis, one being a reference strain (B. subtilis 1012) and the other a recombinant of this (B. subtilis W1012) made able to produce the green fluorescent protein (GFP). RESULTS: Batch cultivations carried out at different initial levels of glucose (GO) in the presence of 10 g L(-1) casein demonstrated that the reference strain was able to release higher levels of biosurfactants in the medium at 5.0 <= G(0) <= 10 g L(-1) (B(max) = 104-110 mg L(-1)). The recombinant strain exhibited slightly lower levels of biosurfactants(B(max) = 90-104 mg L(-1))but only at higher glucose concentrations (G(0) >= 20 g L(-1)). Under these nutritional conditions, the fluorescence intensity linked to the production of GFP was shown to be associated with the cell concentration even after achievement of the stationary phase. CONCLUSION: The ability of the genetically-modified strain to simultaneously overproduce biosurfactant and GFP even at low biomass concentration makes it an interesting candidate for use as a biological indicator to monitor indirectly the biosurfactant production in bioremediation treatments. (C) 2008 Society of Chemical Industry