Efficient simulation of a Tandem Jackson Network

The two-node tandem Jackson network serves as a convenient reference model for the analysis and testing of different methodologies and techniques in rare event simulation. In this paper we consider a new approach to efficiently estimate the probability that the content of the second buffer exceeds some high level L before it becomes empty, starting from a given state. The approach is based on a Markov additive process representation of the buffer processes, leading to an exponential change of measure to be used in an importance sampling procedure. Unlike changes of measures proposed and studied in recent literature, the one derived here is a function of the content of the first buffer. We prove that when the first buffer is finite, this method yields asymptotically efficient simulation for any set of arrival and service rates. In fact, the relative error is bounded independent of the level L; a new result which is not established for any other known method. When the first buffer is infinite, we propose a natural extension of the exponential change of measure for the finite buffer case. In this case, the relative error is shown to be bounded (independent of L) only when the second server is the bottleneck; a result which is known to hold for some other methods derived through large deviations analysis. When the first server is the bottleneck, experimental results using our method seem to suggest that the relative error is bounded linearly in L.

Investigation of factors related to employment outcome following traumatic brain injury: a critical review and conceptual model

Purpose : The purpose of this article is to critically review the literature to examine factors that are most consistently related to employment outcome following traumatic brain injury (TBI), with a particular focus on metacognitive skills. It also aims to develop a conceptual model of factors related to employment outcome. Method : The first stage of the review considered 85 studies published between 1980 and December 2003 which investigated factors associated with employment outcome following TBI. English-language studies were identified through searches of Medline and PsycINFO, as well as manual searches of journals and reference lists. The studies were evaluated and rated by two independent raters (Kappa = 0.835) according to the quality of their methodology based upon nine criteria. Fifty studies met the criteria for inclusion in the second stage of the review, which examined the relationship between a broad range of variables and employment outcome. Results : The factors most consistently associated with employment outcome included pre-injury occupational status, functional status at discharge, global cognitive functioning, perceptual ability, executive functioning, involvement in vocational rehabilitation services and emotional status. Conclusions : A conceptual model is presented which emphasises the importance of metacognitive, emotional and social environment factors for improving employment outcome.

Marker concentration patterns of labelled leaf and stem particles in the rumen of cattle grazing bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon) analysed by reference to a raft model

Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.

Monitoring the composition and form of urban environments based on the vegetation-impervious surface-soil (VIS) model by sub-pixel analysis techniques

The majority of the world's population now resides in urban environments and information on the internal composition and dynamics of these environments is essential to enable preservation of certain standards of living. Remotely sensed data, especially the global coverage of moderate spatial resolution satellites such as Landsat, Indian Resource Satellite and Systeme Pour I'Observation de la Terre (SPOT), offer a highly useful data source for mapping the composition of these cities and examining their changes over time. The utility and range of applications for remotely sensed data in urban environments could be improved with a more appropriate conceptual model relating urban environments to the sampling resolutions of imaging sensors and processing routines. Hence, the aim of this work was to take the Vegetation-Impervious surface-Soil (VIS) model of urban composition and match it with the most appropriate image processing methodology to deliver information on VIS composition for urban environments. Several approaches were evaluated for mapping the urban composition of Brisbane city (south-cast Queensland, Australia) using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data and 1:5000 aerial photographs. The methods evaluated were: image classification; interpretation of aerial photographs; and constrained linear mixture analysis. Over 900 reference sample points on four transects were extracted from the aerial photographs and used as a basis to check output of the classification and mixture analysis. Distinctive zonations of VIS related to urban composition were found in the per-pixel classification and aggregated air-photo interpretation; however, significant spectral confusion also resulted between classes. In contrast, the VIS fraction images produced from the mixture analysis enabled distinctive densities of commercial, industrial and residential zones within the city to be clearly defined, based on their relative amount of vegetation cover. The soil fraction image served as an index for areas being (re)developed. The logical match of a low (L)-resolution, spectral mixture analysis approach with the moderate spatial resolution image data, ensured the processing model matched the spectrally heterogeneous nature of the urban environments at the scale of Landsat Thematic Mapper data.

Social-servicescape conceptual model

There is considerable evidence that environmental variables can substantially influence consumer behavior in service settings (cf. Turley and Milliman, 2000). However, research to date has focused on the effects of the physical elements (‘atmospherics’), with the social aspects (customers and service providers) of the environment largely ignored. First, we provide a review of the extant literature drawing on four major streams of research from (1) previous marketing (servicescapes); (2) environmental psychology (approach–avoidance theory, behavior setting theory); (3) social psychology (social facilitation theory); and (4) organizational behavior (affective events theory). Second, we present a new conceptual model, the ‘Social-servicescape’. In this paper we argue that the social environment and purchase occasion dictates the desired social density which influences customers’ affective and cognitive responses, including repurchase intentions. Furthermore, we argue that customers play a key role in influencing the emotions of others either positively or negatively, and this largely determines whether they intend to return to the service setting. Implications of this conceptual model for theory and practice are discussed.

A conceptual model of personalized virtual learning environments

The Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) is one of the fastest growing areas in educational technology research and development. In order to achieve learning effectiveness, ideal VLEs should be able to identify learning needs and customize solutions, with or without an instructor to supplement instruction. They are called Personalized VLEs (PVLEs). In order to achieve PVLEs success, comprehensive conceptual models corresponding to PVLEs are essential. Such conceptual modeling development is important because it facilitates early detection and correction of system development errors. Therefore, in order to capture the PVLEs knowledge explicitly, this paper focuses on the development of conceptual models for PVLEs, including models of knowledge primitives in terms of learner, curriculum, and situational models, models of VLEs in general pedagogical bases, and particularly, the definition of the ontology of PVLEs on the constructivist pedagogical principle. Based on those comprehensive conceptual models, a prototyped multiagent-based PVLE has been implemented. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the learning achievements by comparing personalized and non-personalized systems. The result indicates that the PVLE we developed under our comprehensive ontology successfully provides significant learning achievements. These comprehensive models also provide a solid knowledge representation framework for PVLEs development practice, guiding the analysis, design, and development of PVLEs. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forest logging and institutional thresholds in developing south-east Asian economies: A conceptual model

Many developing south-east Asian governments are not capturing full rent from domestic forest logging operations. Such rent losses are commonly related to institutional failures, where informal institutions tend to dominate the control of forestry activity in spite of weakly enforced regulations. Our model is an attempt to add a new dimension to thinking about deforestation. We present a simple conceptual model, based on individual decisions rather than social or forest planning, which includes the human dynamics of participation in informal activity and the relatively slower ecological dynamics of changes in forest resources. We demonstrate how incumbent informal logging operations can be persistent, and that any spending aimed at replacing the informal institutions can only be successful if it pushes institutional settings past some threshold. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A reference methodology for conducting ontological analyses

The ontological analysis of conceptual modelling techniques is of increasing popularity. Related research did not only explore the ontological deficiencies of classical techniques such as ER or UML, but also business process modelling techniques such as ARIS or even Web services standards such as BPEL4WS. While the selected ontologies are reasonably mature, it is the actual process of an ontological analysis that still lacks rigor. The current procedure leaves significant room for individual interpretations and is one reason for criticism of the entire ontological analysis. This paper proposes a procedural model for the ontological analysis based on the use of meta models, the involvement of more than one coder and metrics. This model is explained with examples from various ontological analyses.