A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

Early intervention music therapy : reporting on a 3-year project to address needs with at-risk families

Sing & Grow is an early intervention music therapy project presented to families with additional needs, or those at risk of experiencing disadvantage due to social and/or economic circumstances that may impact on their parenting experiences. The aim of the project is to provide short term music therapy programs to families in communities where access to such services may be limited. The program is strengths-based and focuses on building upon a parent’s capacity to relate to and respond to their child’s emotional and developmental needs.

An approach to access control under uncertainty

In dynamic and uncertain environments such as healthcare, where the needs of security and information availability are difficult to balance, an access control approach based on a static policy will be suboptimal regardless of how comprehensive it is. The uncertainty stems from the unpredictability of users’ operational needs as well as their private incentives to misuse permissions. In Role Based Access Control (RBAC), a user’s legitimate access request may be denied because its need has not been anticipated by the security administrator. Alternatively, even when the policy is correctly specified an authorised user may accidentally or intentionally misuse the granted permission. This paper introduces a novel approach to access control under uncertainty and presents it in the context of RBAC. By taking insights from the field of economics, in particular the insurance literature, we propose a formal model where the value of resources are explicitly defined and an RBAC policy (entailing those predictable access needs) is only used as a reference point to determine the price each user has to pay for access, as opposed to representing hard and fast rules that are always rigidly applied.

Risk of second cancer after lymphohematopoietic neoplasm

People living with lymphohematopoietic neoplasms (LHNs) are known to have increased risks of second cancer; however, the incidence of second cancers after LHNs has not been studied extensively in Australia. The Australian Cancer Database was used to analyze site-specific risk of second primary cancer after LHNs in 127,707 patients diagnosed between 1983 and 2005. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated using population rates. Overall, patients with an LHN had nearly twice the risk of developing a second cancer compared to the Australian population. Among 40,321 patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), there was over a fourfold significant increase in melanoma, Kaposi sarcoma, cancer of the lip, connective tissue and peripheral nerves, eye, thyroid, Hodgkin's disease (HD) and myeloid leukemia. Among 6,396 patients with HD, there was over a fourfold significant increase in melanoma, Kaposi sarcoma, cancer of the lip, oral cavity and pharynx, female breast, uterine cervix, testis, thyroid, NHL and myeloid leukemia. Among the 33,025 patients with lymphoid and myeloid leukemia, significant excess were seen for cancers of the lip, eye, connective tissue and peripheral nerves, NHL and HD. Among the 13,856 patients with plasma cell tumors, there was over fourfold significant increase for melanoma, cancer of the connective tissue and peripheral nerves and myeloid leukemia. Our findings provide evidence of an increased risk of cancer, particularly ultraviolet radiation- and immunosuppression-related cancers, after an LHN in Australia. Copyright © 2010 UICC.

Drinking and driving in Vietnam : perceptions and risk

Road traffic injuries are a major global public health problem but continue to receive inadequate attention. Alcohol influences both risk and consequence of road traffic injury but the scale of the problem is not well understood in many countries. In Vietnam, economic development has brought a substantial increase in the number of registered motorcycles as well as alcohol consumption. Traffic injury is among the leading causes of death in Vietnam but there is little local information regarding alcohol related traffic injuries. The primary goal of this study is to explore the drinking and driving patterns of males and their perceptions towards drink-driving and to determine the relationship between alcohol consumption and road traffic injuries. Furthermore, this thesis aims to present the situation analysis for choosing priority actions to reduce drinking and driving in Vietnam. The study is a combination of two cross-sectional surveys and a pilot study. The pilot study, involving 224 traffic injured patients, was conducted to test the tools and the feasibility of approach methods. In the first survey, male patrons (n=464) were randomly selected at seven restaurants. Face-to-face interviews were conducted when patrons just arrived and breath tests were collected when they were about to leave the restaurant. In the second survey, male patients admitted to hospital following a traffic injury (n=480, of which 414 were motorcycle or bicycle riders) were interviewed and their blood alcohol concentration (BAC) measured by breathalyzer. The results show broadly similar patterns of drinking and driving among male patrons and male traffic injured patients with a high frequency of drinking and drink-driving reported among the majority of the two groups. A high proportion of male patrons were leaving restaurants with a BAC over the legal limit. Factors that significantly associate with the number of drinks and BAC were age, hazardous drinking, frequency of drink-driving in the past year, self-estimated number of drinks consumed to drive legally, perceived family’s disapproval of drink-driving, and perceived legal risk and physical risk. The proportion of patrons and patients with BAC above the legal limit of 0.05 were 86.7% and 60.4% respectively, which was much higher than found in previous studies. In addition, both groups had a high prevalence of BAC over 0.15g/100ml (39.7% of patrons and 45.6% patients), a level that can seriously affect driving capacity. Results from the case-crossover analysis for patients indicate a dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of traffic injury. The risk of traffic injury increased when alcohol was consumed before driving and there was a more than 13 fold increase when six or more drinks were consumed. Regarding perceptions towards drinking and driving, findings corroborate the low awareness among males in Vietnam, with a majority of respondents holding a low knowledge of safe and legally permissible alcohol use, and a low perceived risk of drinking and driving. The results also indicate a huge gap in prevention skills in terms of planning ahead or using alternative transport to avoid drink-driving and a perception by patrons and patients of a low rate of disapproval of drink-driving from peers and family. Findings in this study have considerable implications for national policy, injury prevention, clinical practice, reporting systems, and for further research. The low rate of compliance with existing laws and a generally low perceived legal risk toward drink-driving in this study call for the strengthening of enforcement along with mass media campaigns and news coverage in order to decrease the widespread perception of impunity and thereby, to reduce the level of drink-driving. In addition, no significant difference was found in this study on risk of traffic injuries between car drivers and motorcycle drivers. The current inconsistency between legal BAC for drivers of motorcycles, compared to cars, thus needs addressing. Furthermore, as drinking was found to be very common, rather than solely targeting drink-driving, it is important to call for a more strategic and comprehensive approach to alcohol policy in Viet Nam. This study also has considerable implications for clinical practice in terms of screening and brief interventions. Our study suggests that the short form of the AUDIT (AUDIT-C) screening tool is appropriate for use in busy emergency departments. The high proportion of traffic injured patients with evidence of alcohol abuse or hazardous drinking suggests that brief interventions by alcohol and drug counselors in emergency departments are a sensible option to addressing this important problem. The significance of this study is in the combination of the systematic collection of breath test and use of case-crossover design to estimate the risk of traffic injuries after alcohol consumption. The results provide convincing evidence to policy makers, health authorities and the media to help raise community awareness and policy advocacy toward the drinkdriving problem in Vietnam. The findings suggest an urgent need for a multi-sectoral approach to curtail drink-driving in Vietnam, especially programs to raise community awareness and effective legal enforcement. Furthermore, serving as a situation analysis, the thesis should inform the formulation of interventions designed to curtail drinking and driving in Vietnam and other developing countries.

Preliminary development of a sewerage infrastructure buffer assessment tool for engineering risk and strategic land use planning

Urban expansion continues to encroach on once isolated sewerage infrastructure. In this context,legislation and guidelines provide limited direction to the amenity allocation of appropriate buffer distances for land use planners and infrastructure providers. Topography, wind speed and direction,temperature, humidity, existing land uses and vegetation profiles are some of the factors that require investigation in analytically determining a basis for buffer separations. This paper discusses the compilation and analysis of six years of Logan sewerage odour complaint data. Graphically,relationships between the complaints, topographical features and meteorological data are presented. Application of a buffer sizing process could assist planners and infrastructure designers alike, whilst automatically providing extra green spaces. Establishing a justifiable criterion for buffer zone allocations can only assist in promoting manageable growth for healthier and more sustainable communities.

Determinants of skin self-examination (SSE) in men aged 50 years or older

Background: Queensland men aged 50 years and older are at high risk for melanoma. Early detection via skin self examination (SSE) (particularly whole-body SSE) followed by presentation to a doctor with suspicious lesions, may decrease morbidity and mortality from melanoma. Prevalence of whole-body SSE (wbSSE) is lower in Queensland older men compared to other population subgroups. With the exception of the present study no previous research has investigated the determinants of wbSSE in older men, or interventions to increase the behaviour in this population. Furthermore, although past SSE intervention studies for other populations have cited health behaviour models in the development of interventions, no study has tested these models in full. The Skin Awareness Study: A recent randomised trial, called the Skin Awareness Study, tested the impact of a video-delivered intervention compared to written materials alone on wbSSE in men aged 50 years or older (n=930). Men were recruited from the general population and interviewed over the telephone at baseline and 13 months. The proportion of men who reported wbSSE rose from 10% to 31% in the control group, and from 11% to 36% in the intervention group. Current research: The current research was a secondary analysis of data collected for the Skin Awareness Study. The objectives were as follows: • To describe how men who did not take up any SSE during the study period differed from those who did take up examining their skin. • To determine whether the intervention program was successful in affecting the constructs of the Health Belief Model it was aimed at (self-efficacy, perceived threat, and outcome expectations); and whether this in turn influenced wbSSE. • To determine whether the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) was a better predictor of wbSSE behaviour compared to the Health Belief Model (HBM). Methods: For objective 1, men who did not report any past SSE at baseline (n=308) were categorised as having ‘taken up SSE’ (reported SSE at study end) or ‘resisted SSE’ (reported no SSE at study end). Bivariate logistic regression, followed by multivariable regression, investigated the association between participant characteristics measured at baseline and resisting SSE. For objective 2 proxy measures of self-efficacy, perceived threat, and outcome expectations were selected. To determine whether these mediated the effect of the intervention on the outcome, a mediator analysis was performed with all participants who completed interviews at both time points (n=830) following the Baron and Kenny approach, modified for use with structural equation modelling (SEM). For objective 3, control group participants only were included (n=410). Proxy measures of all HBM and HAPA constructs were selected and SEM was used to build up models and test the significance of each hypothesised pathway. A likelihood ratio test compared the HAPA to the HBM. Results: Amongst men who did not report any SSE at baseline, 27% did not take up any SSE by the end of the study. In multivariable analyses, resisting SSE was associated with having more freckly skin (p=0.027); being unsure about the statement ‘if I saw something suspicious on my skin, I’d go to the doctor straight away’ (p=0.028); not intending to perform SSE (p=0.015), having lower SSE self-efficacy (p<0.001), and having no recommendation for SSE from a doctor (p=0.002). In the mediator analysis none of the tested variables mediated the relationship between the intervention and wbSSE. In regards to health behaviour models, the HBM did not predict wbSSE well overall. Only the construct of self-efficacy was a significant predictor of future wbSSE (p=0.001), while neither perceived threat (p=0.584) nor outcome expectations (p=0.220) were. By contrast, when the HAPA constructs were added, all three HBM variables predicted intention to perform SSE, which in turn predicted future behaviour (p=0.015). The HAPA construct of volitional self-efficacy was also associated with wbSSE (p=0.046). The HAPA was a significantly better model compared to the HBM (p<0.001). Limitations: Items selected to measure HBM and HAPA model constructs for objectives 2 and 3 may not have accurately reflected each construct. Conclusions: This research added to the evidence base on how best to target interventions to older men; and on the appropriateness of particular health behaviour models to guide interventions. Findings indicate that to overcome resistance those men with more negative pre-existing attitudes to SSE (not intending to do it, lower initial self-efficacy) may need to be targeted with more intensive interventions in the future. Involving general practitioners in recommending SSE to their patients in this population, alongside disseminating an intervention, may increase its success. Comparison of the HBM and HAPA showed that while two of the three HBM variables examined did not directly predict future wbSSE, all three were associated with intention to self-examine skin. This suggests that in this population, intervening on these variables may increase intention to examine skin, but not necessarily the behaviour itself. Future interventions could potentially focus on increasing both the motivational variables of perceived threat and outcome expectations as well as a combination of both action and volitional self-efficacy; with the aim of increasing intention as well as its translation to taking up and maintaining regular wbSSE.

Development and evaluation of the Clinician Suicide Risk Assessment Checklist

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a new instrument - the Clinician Suicide Risk Assessment Checklist (CSRAC). The instrument assesses the clinician's competency in three areas: clinical interviewing, assessment of specific suicide risk factors, and formulating a management plan. A draft checklist was constructed by integrating information from 1) literature review 2) expert clinician focus group and 3) consultation with experts. It was utilised in a simulated clinical scenario with clinician trainees and a trained actor in order to test for inter-rater agreement. Agreement was calculated and the checklist was re-drafted with the aim of maximising agreement. A second phase of simulated clinical scenarios was then conducted and inter-rater agreement was calculated for the revised checklist. In the first phase of the study, 18 of 35 items had inadequate inter-rater agreement (60%>), while in the second phase, using the revised version, only 3 of 39 items failed to achieve adequate inter-rater agreement. Further evidence of reliability and validity are required. Continued development of the CSRAC will be necessary before it can be utilised to assess the effectiveness of risk assessment training programs.

A geographical analysis of the role of water supply and sanitation in the risk of helminth infections of children in West Africa

Background We investigated the geographical variation of water supply and sanitation indicators (WS&S) and their role to the risk of schistosomiasis and hookworm infection in school age children in West Africa. The aim was to predict large-scale geographical variation in WS&S, quantify the attributable risk of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infections due to WS&S and identify communities where sustainable transmission control could be targeted across the region. Methods National cross-sectional household-based demographic health surveys were conducted in 24,542 households in Burkina Faso, Ghana and Mali, in 2003–2006. We generated spatially-explicit predictions of areas without piped water, toilet facilities and finished floors in West Africa, adjusting for household covariates. Using recently published helminth prevalence data we developed Bayesian geostatistical models (MGB) of S. haematobium, S. mansoni and hookworm infection in West Africa including environmental and the mapped outputs for WS&S. Using these models we estimated the effect of WS&S on parasite risk, quantified their attributable fraction of infection, and mapped the risk of infection in West Africa. Findings Our maps show that most areas in West Africa are very poorly served by water supply except in major urban centers. There is a better geographical coverage for toilet availability and improved household flooring. We estimated smaller attributable risks for water supply in S. mansoni (47%) compared to S. haematobium (71%), and 5% of hookworm cases could be averted by improving sanitation. Greater levels of inadequate sanitation increased the risk of schistosomiasis, and increased levels of unsafe water supply increased the risk of hookworm. The role of floor type for S. haematobium infection (21%) was comparable to that of S. mansoni (16%), but was significantly higher for hookworm infection (86%). S. haematobium and hookworm maps accounting for WS&S show small clusters of maximal prevalence areas in areas bordering Burkina Faso and Mali smaller. The map of S. mansoni shows that this parasite is much more wide spread across the north of the Niger River basin than previously predicted. Interpretation Our maps identify areas where the Millennium Development Goal for water and sanitation is lagging behind. Our results show that WS&S are important contributors to the burden of major helminth infections of children in West Africa. Including information about WS&S as well as the “traditional” environmental risk factors in spatial models of helminth risk yielded a substantial gain both in model fit and at explaining the proportion of spatial variance in helminth risk. Mapping the distribution of infection risk adjusted for WS&S allowed the identification of communities in West Africa where integrative preventive chemotherapy and engineering interventions will yield the greatest public health benefits.

Room ventilation and the risk of airborne infection transmission in three health care settings within a large teaching hospital

Background: Room ventilation is a key determinant of airborne disease transmission. Despite this, ventilation guidelines in hospitals are not founded on robust scientific evidence related to prevention of airborne transmission. Methods: We sought to assess the effect of ventilation rates on influenza, tuberculosis (TB) and rhinovirus infection risk within three distinct rooms in a major urban hospital; a Lung Function Laboratory, Emergency Department (ED) Negative-pressure Isolation Room and an Outpatient Consultation Room were investigated. Air exchange rate measurements were performed in each room using CO2 as a tracer. Gammaitoni and Nucci’s model was employed to estimate infection risk. Results: Current outdoor air exchange rates in the Lung Function Laboratory and ED Isolation Room limited infection risks to between 0.1 and 3.6%. Influenza risk for individuals entering an Outpatient Consultation Room after an infectious individual departed ranged from 3.6 to 20.7%, depending on the duration for which each person occupied the room. Conclusions: Given the absence of definitive ventilation guidelines for hospitals, air exchange measurements combined with modelling afford a useful means of assessing, on a case-by-case basis, the suitability of room ventilation at preventing airborne disease transmission.

The relative importance of factors influencing bicycling crash risk

Government promotion of active transport has renewed interest in cycling safety. Research has shown that bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers. On-road cycling injuries are under-reported in police data, and many non-serious injuries are not recorded in any official database. This study aims to explore the relationships between rider characteristics and environmental factors that influence per kilometre risk of bicycle-related crash and non-crash injuries.

The safety risk management of unmanned aircraft systems

The safety risk management process describes the systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the activities of communicating, consulting, establishing the context, and identifying, analysing, evaluating, treating, monitoring and reviewing risk. This process is undertaken to provide assurances that the risks of a particular unmanned aircraft system activity have been managed to an acceptable level. The safety risk management process and its outcomes form part of the documented safety case necessary to obtain approvals for unmanned aircraft system operations. It also guides the development of an organisation’s operations manual and is a primary component of an organisation’s safety management system. The aim of this chapter is to provide existing risk practitioners with a high level introduction to some of the unique issues and challenges in the application of the safety risk management process to unmanned aircraft systems. The scope is limited to safety risks associated with the operation of unmanned aircraft in the civil airspace system and over inhabited areas. The structure of the chapter is based on the safety risk management process as defined by the international risk management standard ISO 31000:2009 and draws on aviation safety resources provided by International Civil Aviation Organization, the Federal Aviation Administration and U.S. Department of Defense. References to relevant aviation safety regulations, programs of research and fielded systems are also provided.

Wound problems following hip arthroplasty before and after the introduction of a direct thrombin inhibitor for thromboprophylaxis

NICE guidelines have stated that patients undergoing elective hip surgery are at increased risk for venous thromboembolic events (VTE) following surgery and have recommended thromboprophylaxis for 28-35 days1, 2. However the studies looking at the new direct thrombin inhibitors have only looked at major bleeding. We prospectively looked at wound discharge in patients who underwent hip arthroplasty and were given dabigatran postoperatively between March 2010 and April 2010 (n=56). We retrospectively compared these results to a matched group of patients who underwent similar operations six months earlier when all patients were given dalteparin routinely postoperatively until discharge, and discharged home on 150mg aspirin daily for 6 weeks (n=67). Wound discharge after 5 days was significantly higher in the patients taking dabigatran (32% dabigatran n=18, 10% dalteparin n=17, p=0.003) and our rate of delayed discharges due to wound discharge significantly increased from 7% in the dalteparin group (n=5) to 27% for dabigatran (n=15, p=0.004). Patients who received dabigatran were more than five times as likely to return to theatre with a wound complication as those who received dalteparin (7% dabigatran n=4, vs. 1% dalteparin n=1), however, this was not statistically significant (p=0.18). The significantly higher wound discharge and return to theatre rates demonstrated in this study have meant that we have changed our practice to administering dalteparin until the wound is dry and then starting dabigatran. Our study demonstrates the need for further clinical studies regarding wound discharge and dabigatran.