A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality


Autoria(s): Guo, Yuming; Barnett, Adrian G.; Yu, Weiwei; Pan, Xiaochuan; Ye, Xiaofang; Huang, Cunrui; Tong, Shilu
Data(s)

2011

Resumo

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

Formato

application/pdf

application/pdf

Identificador

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/45502/

Publicador

Public Library of Science

Relação

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/45502/1/plosone_20110108.pdf

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/45502/5/45502.pdf

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0016511

Guo, Yuming, Barnett, Adrian G., Yu, Weiwei, Pan, Xiaochuan, Ye, Xiaofang, Huang, Cunrui, & Tong, Shilu (2011) A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality. PLoS ONE, 6(2), e16511.

http://purl.org/au-research/grants/NHMRC/553043

Direitos

Copyright 2011 The Authors

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Fonte

Faculty of Health; Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation; School of Public Health & Social Work

Palavras-Chave #111705 Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety #111706 Epidemiology #Temperature Change #Climate Change #Mortality #Cardiovascular #Respiratory
Tipo

Journal Article