How your shopping choices will help Coles and Woolworths take on the banks

The days when Coles and Woolworths only sold groceries are long gone. Both are now established players in a broad range of consumer markets, with interests in liquor and hotels, fuel and convenience, general merchandise and mobile phones. With a network of over 1,600 supermarkets, 1,100 service stations, 2,200 liquor stores and nearly 400 hotels, the supermarket duo are now getting ready for a war with Australia’s big four banks.

Predicting the last brand standing in the supermarket price wars

On January 26, 2011, grocery retailer Coles fired the first salvo in what would soon be dubbed the “supermarket price wars” by reducing the price of its own-brand milk to A$1 per litre. Woolworths immediately responded. In the three years since, grocery prices have been tumbling, with 85 cent bread being the latest “sacrificial lamb”. This period of intense competition has brought about not just lower grocery prices, but a senate enquiry, and increasing media and analyst interest.

Sorry Joe, consumer spending will disappoint Santa this Christmas

Treasurer Joe Hockey called on shoppers this week to “not let Santa down” and asked them to spend up big at the stores this Christmas. Unfortunately, the latest retail and consumer confidence data indicate his calls are falling on deaf ears. Westpac’s Consumer Confidence Index shows pessimists outnumber optimists. This has been the case for the last nine months. The index was up 1.9% in November, but still well below its level a year ago.

Taste over waste: Ugly food movement winning friends

Consumer driven food trends are nothing new. “Organics”, gluten-free, and more recently buying “local” have all captured consumers, encouraging supermarkets around the globe and in Australia to respond. But the next emerging European food trend that may have the biggest impact on what we buy each week is “ugly food”.

Is Aldi’s move to woo cashed-up shoppers a risk?

While Aldi’s launch of their new “trial” stores may seem to be an attempt to capture middle income shoppers, it may end in disaster. Aldi’s four new trial stores located in Queensland, NSW, ACT and Victoria, will offer improved lighting, larger layouts and an expanded offering of fresh food including extending produce ranges, in-house bakeries and premium brands. Employing Nielsen’s 2014 Homescan Report, Aldi have determined that only 30% of their customers were now considered “low-income shoppers”. Some 34.4% were from middle-income households and the remaining 35.6% now had household incomes greater than AUD$90,000 a year - a segment which has grown by 6.7% since 2011. So this probably the reason for Aldi’s foray into new stores and ranges. However, such a move is considered risky.

Move over Aldi, Lidl may be next for Australian market

If speculation that German discount supermarket, Lidl, is preparing to launch into the Australian market is correct, it will be the biggest shake up in the grocery sector since Aldi’s arrival in 2001. With potentially five viable combatants in the mix, the way we shop and how supermarkets and suppliers compete, will fundamentally change.

David Jones seeks to exploit top end gap in Australian grocery

While Australia’s supermarkets continue to battle on price, the South African owner of David Jones, Woolworths Holdings, has found a gap in the Australian grocery market and is preparing to exploit it. Reports that the group has appointed Pieter de Wet to overhaul the David Jones food business signals once again the ever-changing face of the Australian food and grocery landscape. A re-energised David Jones food offer will provide positive outcomes for both shoppers and suppliers, while potentially becoming another headache for Coles and Woolworths.

Down, down but not different: Australia’s supermarkets in a race to the bottom

For 25 years, Woolworths told shoppers they were “the fresh food people”. It was a very clear point of difference and delivered the group a sustainable competitive advantage. Any attempt by a competitor to replicate it would have been dismissed as lacking credence; a simple market-follower strategy.

Woolies' new loyalty program offers a glimpse into the future

Woolworths is set to launch its new loyalty program, Woolworths Rewards, claiming that the new scheme will enable shoppers to redeem cash discounts off their shopping basket, much faster than ever before. It is estimated shoppers will acquire the necessary points to save $10 automatically of their grocery bill within seven weeks. Resembling the model used by UK retailer Morrisons, the new Woolworths Rewards program is a smart move for the retailer hoping to claw back some market share and curtail operational costs. However, there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Five tricks retailers will use to make you shop this Christmas

Australian shoppers are predicted to spend nearly A$47 billion this Christmas. But retailers have to work harder and harder to get shoppers to pull out their wallets. Here are five strategies retailers will be using to get us to part with our hard earned coin.

Can moral potency and psychological risk close the gap between ethical beliefs and unacceptable consumer behavior?

Depending on how they perceive risk, consumers may not always act according to their ethical beliefs, exposing a gap between beliefs and behavior. We investigate the effect of moral potency on perceived psychological risk of committing an unacceptable behavior. The results suggest that perceived risk is triggered by moral ownership.

Legumes or nitrification inhibitors to reduce {N2O} emissions from subtropical cereal cropping systems in Oxisols?

The DAYCENT biogeochemical model was used to investigate how the use of fertilizers coated with nitrification inhibitors and the introduction of legumes in the crop rotation can affect subtropical cereal production and {N2O} emissions. The model was validated using comprehensive multi-seasonal, high-frequency dataset from two field investigations conducted on an Oxisol, which is the most common soil type in subtropical regions. Different N fertilizer rates were tested for each N management strategy and simulated under varying weather conditions. DAYCENT was able to reliably predict soil N dynamics, seasonal {N2O} emissions and crop production, although some discrepancies were observed in the treatments with low or no added N inputs and in the simulation of daily {N2O} fluxes. Simulations highlighted that the high clay content and the relatively low C levels of the Oxisol analyzed in this study limit the chances for significant amounts of N to be lost via deep leaching or denitrification. The application of urea coated with a nitrification inhibitor was the most effective strategy to minimize {N2O} emissions. This strategy however did not increase yields since the nitrification inhibitor did not substantially decrease overall N losses compared to conventional urea. Simulations indicated that replacing part of crop N requirements with N mineralized by legume residues is the most effective strategy to reduce {N2O} emissions and support cereal productivity. The results of this study show that legumes have significant potential to enhance the sustainable and profitable intensification of subtropical cereal cropping systems in Oxisols.

The power of customer loyalty

Customer loyalty can be separated into behavioral loyalty and attitudinal loyalty. This presentation, delivered at the Australian Professional Pharmacists Convention examines ways pharmacists can increase attitudinal long-term customer loyalty.

Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Woolies private label strategy will play directly into the hands of Aldi

Woolworths’ plan to rebrand its private label ranges in an attempt to meet changing shopper demands and combat the growth of Aldi will simply play into the hands of this German discounter. This new strategy, a replication of what Coles did in November 2015, will see their existing “Homebrand” and “Woolworths Essential” product ranges combined under the “Essentials” brand name. However, in focusing on price and private label ranges, supermarkets are in a race to the bottom where there are no points of difference in products except for price.