10 resultados para multiple linear regression

em Helda - Digital Repository of University of Helsinki


Relevância:

100.00% 100.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This study investigates the role of social media as a form of organizational knowledge sharing. Social media is investigated in terms of the Web 2.0 technologies that organizations provide their employees as tools of internal communication. This study is anchored in the theoretical understanding of social media as technologies which enable both knowledge collection and knowledge donation. This study investigates the factors influencing employees’ use of social media in their working environment. The study presents the multidisciplinary research tradition concerning knowledge sharing. Social media is analyzed especially in relation to internal communication and knowledge sharing. Based on previous studies, it is assumed that personal, organizational, and technological factors influence employees’ use of social media in their working environment. The research represents a case study focusing on the employees of the Finnish company Wärtsilä. Wärtsilä represents an eligible case organization for this study given that it puts in use several Web 2.0 tools in its intranet. The research is based on quantitative methods. In total 343 answers were obtained with the aid of an online survey which was available in Wärtsilä’s intranet. The associations between the variables are analyzed with the aid of correlations. Finally, with the aid of multiple linear regression analysis the causality between the assumed factors and the use of social media is tested. The analysis demonstrates that personal, organizational and technological factors influence the respondents’ use of social media. As strong predictive variables emerge the benefits that respondents expect to receive from using social media and respondents’ experience in using Web 2.0 in their private lives. Also organizational factors such as managers’ and colleagues’ activeness and organizational guidelines for using social media form a causal relationship with the use of social media. In addition, respondents’ understanding of their responsibilities affects their use of social media. The more social media is considered as a part of individual responsibilities, the more frequently social media is used. Finally, technological factors must be recognized. The more user-friendly social media tools are considered and the better technical skills respondents have, the more frequently social media is used in the working environment. The central references in relation to knowledge sharing include Chun Wei Choo’s (2006) work Knowing Organization, Ikujiro Nonaka and Hirotaka Takeuchi’s (1995) work The Knowledge Creating Company and Linda Argote’s (1999) work Organizational Learning.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The aims of this dissertation were 1) to investigate associations of weight status of adolescents with leisure activities, and computer and cell phone use, and 2) to investigate environmental and genetic influences on body mass index (BMI) during adolescence. Finnish twins born in 1983–1987 responded to postal questionnaires at the ages of 11-12 (5184 participants), 14 (4643 participants), and 17 years (4168 participants). Information was obtained on weight and height, leisure activities including television viewing, video viewing, computer games, listening to music, board games, musical instrument playing, reading, arts, crafts, socializing, clubs, sports, and outdoor activities, as well as computer and cell phone use. Activity patterns were studied using latent class analysis. The relationship between leisure activities and weight status was investigated using logistic and linear regression. Genetic and environmental effects on BMI were studied using twin modeling. Of individual leisure activities, sports were associated with decreased overweight risk among boys in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, but among girls only cross-sectionally. Many sedentary leisure activities, such as video viewing (boys/girls), arts (boys), listening to music (boys), crafts (girls), and board games (girls), had positive associations with being overweight. Computer use was associated with a higher prevalence of overweight in cross-sectional analyses. However, musical instrument playing, commonly considered as a sedentary activity, was associated with a decreased overweight risk among boys. Four patterns of leisure activities were found: ‘Active and sociable’, ‘Active but less sociable’, ‘Passive but sociable’, and ‘Passive and solitary’. The prevalence of overweight was generally highest among the ‘Passive and solitary’ adolescents. Overall, leisure activity patterns did not predict overweight risk later in adolescence. An exception were 14-year-old ‘Passive and solitary’ girls who had the greatest risk of becoming overweight by 17 years of age. Heritability of BMI was high (0.58-0.83). Common environmental factors shared by family-members affected the BMI at 11-12 and 14 years but their effect had disappeared by 17 years of age. Additive genetic factors explained 90-96% of the BMI stability across adolescence. Genetic correlations across adolescence were high, which suggests similar genetic effects on BMI throughout adolescence, while unique environmental effects on BMI appeared to vary. These findings suggest that family-based interventions hold promise for obesity prevention into early and middle adolescence, but that later in adolescence obesity prevention should focus on individuals. A useful target could be adolescents' leisure time, and our findings highlight the importance of versatility in leisure activities.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Knowing the chromosomal areas or actual genes affecting the traits under selection would add more information to be used in the selection decisions which would potentially lead to higher genetic response. The first objective of this study was to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting economically important traits in the Finnish Ayrshire population. The second objective was to investigate the effects of using QTL information in marker-assisted selection (MAS) on the genetic response and the linkage disequilibrium between the different parts of the genome. Whole genome scans were carried out on a grand-daughter design with 12 half-sib families and a total of 493 sons. Twelve different traits were studied: milk yield, protein yield, protein content, fat yield, fat content, somatic cell score (SCS), mastitis treatments, other veterinary treatments, days open, fertility treatments, non-return rate, and calf mortality. The average spacing of the typed markers was 20 cM with 2 to 14 markers per chromosome. Associations between markers and traits were analyzed with multiple marker regression. Significance was determined by permutation and genome-wise P-values obtained by Bonferroni correction. The benefits from MAS were investigated by simulation: a conventional progeny testing scheme was compared to a scheme where QTL information was used within families to select among full-sibs in the male path. Two QTL on different chromosomes were modelled. The effects of different starting frequencies of the favourable alleles and different size of the QTL effects were evaluated. A large number of QTL, 48 in total, were detected at 5% or higher chromosome-wise significance. QTL for milk production were found on 8 chromosomes, for SCS on 6, for mastitis treatments on 1, for other veterinary treatments on 5, for days open on 7, for fertility treatments on 7, for calf mortality on 6, and for non-return rate on 2 chromosomes. In the simulation study the total genetic response was faster with MAS than with conventional selection and the advantage of MAS persisted over the studied generations. The rate of response and the difference between the selection schemes reflected clearly the changes in allele frequencies of the favourable QTL. The disequilibrium between the polygenes and QTL was always negative and it was larger with larger QTL size. The disequilibrium between the two QTL was larger with QTL of large effect and it was somewhat larger with MAS for scenarios with starting frequencies below 0.5 for QTL of moderate size and below 0.3 for large QTL. In conclusion, several QTL affecting economically important traits of dairy cattle were detected. Further studies are needed to verify these QTL, check their presence in the present breeding population, look for pleiotropy and fine map the most interesting QTL regions. The results of the simulation studies show that using MAS together with embryo transfer to pre-select young bulls within families is a useful approach to increase the genetic merit of the AI-bulls compared to conventional selection.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Congenital long QT syndrome (LQTS) with an estimated prevalence of 1:2000-1:10 000 manifests with prolonged QT interval on electrocardiogram and risk for ventricular arrhythmias and sudden death. Several ion channel genes and hundreds of mutations in these genes have been identified to underlie the disorder. In Finland, four LQTS founder mutations of potassium channel genes account for up to 40-70% of genetic spectrum of LQTS. Acquired LQTS has similar clinical manifestations, but often arises from usage of QT-prolonging medication or electrolyte disturbances. A prolonged QT interval is associated with increased morbidity and mortality not only in clinical LQTS but also in patients with ischemic heart disease and in the general population. The principal aim of this study was to estimate the actual prevalence of LQTS founder mutations in Finland and to calculate their effect on QT interval in the Finnish background population. Using a large population-based sample of over 6000 Finnish individuals from the Health 2000 Survey, we identified LQTS founder mutations KCNQ1 G589D (n=8), KCNQ1 IVS7-2A>G (n=1), KCNH2 L552S (n=2), and KCNH2 R176W (n=16) in 27 study participants. This resulted in a weighted prevalence estimate of 0.4% for LQTS in Finland. Using a linear regression model, the founder mutations resulted in a 22- to 50-ms prolongation of the age-, sex-, and heart rate-adjusted QT interval. Collectively, these data suggest that one of 250 individuals in Finland may be genetically predisposed to ventricular arrhythmias arising from the four LQTS founder mutations. A KCNE1 D85N minor allele with a frequency of 1.4% was associated with a 10-ms prolongation in adjusted QT interval and could thus identify individuals at increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias at the population level. In addition, the previously reported associations of KCNH2 K897T, KCNH2 rs3807375, and NOS1AP rs2880058 with QT interval duration were confirmed in the present study. In a separate study, LQTS founder mutations were identified in a subgroup of acquired LQTS, providing further evidence that congenital LQTS gene mutations may underlie acquired LQTS. Catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) is characterized by exercise-induced ventricular arrhythmias in a structurally normal heart and results from defects in the cardiac Ca2+ signaling proteins, mainly ryanodine receptor type 2 (RyR2). In a patient population of typical CPVT, RyR2 mutations were identifiable in 25% (4/16) of patients, implying that noncoding variants or other genes are involved in CPVT pathogenesis. A 1.1 kb RyR2 exon 3 deletion was identified in two patients independently, suggesting that this region may provide a new target for RyR2-related molecular genetic studies. Two novel RyR2 mutations showing a gain-of-function defect in vitro were identified in three victims of sudden cardiac death. Extended pedigree analyses revealed some surviving mutation carriers with mild structural abnormalities of the heart and resting ventricular arrhythmias suggesting that not all RyR2 mutations lead to a typical CPVT phenotype, underscoring the relevance of tailored risk stratification of a RyR2 mutation carrier.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Background: Both maternal and fetal complications are increased in diabetic pregnancies. Although hypertensive complications are increased in pregnant women with pregestational diabetes, reports on hypertensive complications in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have been contradictory. Congenital malformations and macrosomia are the main fetal complications in Type 1 diabetic pregnancies, whereas fetal macrosomia and birth trauma but not congenital malformations are increased in GDM pregnancies. Aims: To study the frequency of hypertensive disorders in gestational diabetes mellitus. To evaluate the risk of macrosomia and brachial plexus injury (Erb’s palsy) and the ability of the 2-hour glucose tolerance test (OGTT) combined with the 24-hour glucose profile to distinguish between low and high risks of fetal macrosomia among women with GDM. To evaluate the relationship between glycemic control and the risk of fetal malformations in pregnancies complicated by Type 1 diabetes mellitus. To assess the effect of glycemic control on the occurrence of preeclampsia and pregnancy-induced hypertension in Type 1 diabetic pregnancies. Subjects: A total of 986 women with GDM and 203 women with borderline glucose intolerance (one abnormal value in the OGTT) with a singleton pregancy, 488 pregnant women with Type 1 diabetes (691 pregnancies and 709 offspring), and 1154 pregnant non-diabetic women (1181 pregnancies and 1187 offspring) were investigated. Results: In a prospective study on 81 GDM patients the combined frequency of preeclampsia and PIH was higher than in 327 non-diabetic controls (19.8% vs 6.1%, p<0.001). On the other hand, in 203 women with only one abnormal value in the OGTT, the rate of hypertensive complications did not differ from that of the controls. Both GDM women and those with only one abnormal value in the OGTT had higher pre-pregnancy weights and BMIs than the controls. In a retrospective study involving 385 insulin-treated and 520 diet-treated GDM patients, and 805 non-diabetic control pregnant women, fetal macrosomia occurred more often in the insulin-treated GDM pregnancies (18.2%, p<0.001) than in the diet-treated GDM pregnancies (4.4%), or the control pregnancies (2.2%). The rate of Erb’s palsy in vaginally delivered infants was 2.7% in the insulin-treated group of women and 2.4% in the diet-treated women compared with 0.3% in the controls (p<0.001). The cesarean section rate was more than twice as high (42.3% vs 18.6%) in the insulin-treated GDM patients as in the controls. A major fetal malformation was observed in 30 (4.2%) of the 709 newborn infants in Type 1 diabetic pregnancies and in 10 (1.4%) of the 735 controls (RR 3.1, 95% CI 1.6–6.2). Even women whose levels of HbA1c (normal values less than 5.6%) were only slightly increased in early pregnancy (between 5.6 and 6.8%) had a relative risk of fetal malformation of 3.0 (95% CI 1.2–7.5). Only diabetic patients with a normal HbA1c level (<5.6%) in early pregnancy had the same low risk of fetal malformations as the controls. Preeclampsia was diagnosed in 12.8% and PIH in 11.4% of the 616 Type 1 diabetic women without diabetic nephropathy. The corresponding frequencies among the 854 control women were 2.7% (OR 5.2; 95% CI 3.3–8.4) for preeclampsia and 5.6% (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.5–3.1) for PIH. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that glycemic control, nulliparity, diabetic retinopathy and duration of diabetes were statistically significant independent predictors of preeclampsia. The adjusted odds ratios for preeclampsia were 1.6 (95% CI 1.3–2.0) for each 1%-unit increment in the HbA1c value during the first trimester and 0.6 (95% CI 0.5–0.8) for each 1%-unit decrement during the first half of pregnancy. In contrast, changes in glycemic control during the second half of pregnancy did not alter the risk of preeclampsia. Conclusions: In type 1 diabetic pregnancies it is extremely important to achieve optimal glycemic control before pregnancy and maintain it throughout pregnancy in order to decrease the complication rates both in the mother and in her offspring. The rate of fetal macrosomia and birth trauma in GDM pregnancies, especially in the group of insulin-treated women, is still relatively high. New strategies for screening, diagnosing, and treatment of GDM must be developed in order to decrease fetal and neonatal complications.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Leaf and needle biomasses are key factors in forest health. Insects that feed on needles cause growth losses and tree mortality. Insect outbreaks in Finnish forests have increased rapidly during the last decade and due to climate change the damages are expected to become more serious. There is a need for cost-efficient methods for inventorying these outbreaks. Remote sensing is a promising means for estimating forests and damages. The purpose of this study is to investigate the usability of airborne laser scanning in estimating Scots pine defoliation caused by the common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.). The study area is situated in Ilomantsi district, eastern Finland. Study materials included high-pulse airborne laser scannings from July and October 2008. Reference data consisted of 90 circular field plots measured in May-June 2009. Defoliation percentage on these field plots was estimated visually. The study was made on plot-level and methods used were linear regression, unsupervised classification, Maximum likelihood method, and stepwise linear regression. Field plots were divided in defoliation classes in two different ways: When divided in two classes the defoliation percentages used were 0–20 % and 20–100 % and when divided in four classes 0–10 %, 10–20 %, 20–30 % and 30–100 %. The results varied depending on method and laser scanning. In the first laser scanning the best results were obtained with stepwise linear regression. The kappa value was 0,47 when using two classes and 0,37 when divided in four classes. In the second laser scanning the best results were obtained with Maximum likelihood. The kappa values were 0,42 and 0,37, correspondingly. The feature that explained defoliation best was vegetation index (pulses reflected from height > 2m / all pulses). There was no significant difference in the results between the two laser scannings so the seasonal change in defoliation could not be detected in this study.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks. Trying to balance between relevant and reliable accounting data, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) allow, to some extent, the company management to use their judgment and to make subjective assessments when preparing financial statements. The opportunistic use of the discretion in financial reporting is called earnings management. There have been a considerable number of suggestions of methods for detecting accrual based earnings management. A majority of these methods are based on linear regression. The problem with using linear regression is that a linear relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables must be assumed. However, previous research has shown that the relationship between accruals and some of the explanatory variables, such as company performance, is non-linear. An alternative to linear regression, which can handle non-linear relationships, is neural networks. The type of neural network used in this study is the feed-forward back-propagation neural network. Three neural network-based models are compared with four commonly used linear regression-based earnings management detection models. All seven models are based on the earnings management detection model presented by Jones (1991). The performance of the models is assessed in three steps. First, a random data set of companies is used. Second, the discretionary accruals from the random data set are ranked according to six different variables. The discretionary accruals in the highest and lowest quartiles for these six variables are then compared. Third, a data set containing simulated earnings management is used. Both expense and revenue manipulation ranging between -5% and 5% of lagged total assets is simulated. Furthermore, two neural network-based models and two linear regression-based models are used with a data set containing financial statement data from 110 failed companies. Overall, the results show that the linear regression-based models, except for the model using a piecewise linear approach, produce biased estimates of discretionary accruals. The neural network-based model with the original Jones model variables and the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable, however, perform well in all three steps. Especially in the second step, where the highest and lowest quartiles of ranked discretionary accruals are examined, the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable outperforms the other models.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Seminal plasma (SP) is the fluid portion of semen, secreted by the epididymides and the accessory glands before and during ejaculation. The stallion s ejaculate is a series of jets that differ in sperm concentration, semen volume and biochemical composition. Before the actual ejaculation, a clear and watery pre-sperm fluid is secreted. The first three jets form the sperm-rich fractions, and contain ¾ of the total number of sperm. The semen volume and sperm concentration in each of the jets decrease towards the end of the ejaculation, and the last jets are sperm-poor fractions with a low sperm concentration. The aims of these studies were to examine the effects of the different SP fractions, and the presence of SP, on sperm survival during storage. Pre-sperm fluid, and semen fractions with a high (sperm-rich) and low (sperm-poor) sperm concentration were collected in five experiments. The levels of selected enzymes, electrolytes and proteins in different SP fractions were determined. These studies also aimed at assessing the individual variation in the levels of the selected SP components and in the effects of SP on spermatozoa. The association between the components of SP and semen quality, sperm longevity, and fertility was examined with a stepwise linear regression analysis. Compared to samples containing SP during storage, centrifugation and the subsequent removal of SP reduced sperm motility parameters during 24 h of cooled storage in all SP fractions, but sperm membrane integrity was not affected. Some of the measured post-thaw motility parameters were also higher in samples containing SP compared to samples stored without SP. In contrast, the proportion of DNA-damaged spermatozoa was greater in the samples stored with SP than those without SP, and this effect was seen in both sperm-rich and sperm-poor fractions. There were no differences in DNA integrity between fractions stored with SP, but the sperm-rich fraction showed less DNA damage than the sperm-poor fraction after SP removal. The differences between fractions in sperm motility after cooled storage were non-significant. The levels of alkaline phosphatase, acid phosphatase and β-glucuronidase were higher in the sperm-rich fractions compared to the sperm-poor fractions, while the concentrations of calcium and magnesium were higher in sperm-poor fractions than in sperm-rich fractions. The concentrations of sodium and chloride were highest in pre-sperm fluid. In the sperm-poor fraction, the level of potassium was associated with the maintenance of sperm motility during storage. The levels of alkaline and acid phosphatase were associated with sperm concentration and the total number of spermatozoa in the ejaculates. None of the measured SP components were correlated to the first cycle pregnancy rate. In summary, the removal of SP improved DNA integrity after cooled storage compared with samples containing SP. There were no differences in the maintenance of sperm motility between the sperm-rich and sperm-poor fractions and whole ejaculates during cooled storage, irrespective of the presence of SP. The lowest rate of DNA damage was found in the sperm-rich fractions stored without SP. In practice, the results presented in this thesis support the use of individual modifications of semen processing techniques for cooled transported semen from subfertile stallions.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Background and context Since the economic reforms of 1978, China has been acclaimed as a remarkable economy, achieving 9% annual growth per head for more than 25 years. However, China's health sector has not fared well. The population health gains slowed down and health disparities increased. In the field of health and health care, significant progress in maternal care has been achieved. However, there still remain important disparities between the urban and rural areas and among the rural areas in terms of economic development. The excess female infant deaths and the rapidly increasing sex ratio at birth in the last decade aroused serious concerns among policy makers and scholars. Decentralization of the government administration and health sector reform impacts maternal care. Many studies using census data have been conducted to explore the determinants of a high sex ratio at birth, but no agreement has been so far reached on the possible contributing factors. No study using family planning system data has been conducted to explore perinatal mortality and sex ratio at birth and only few studies have examined the impact of the decentralization of government and health sector reforms on the provision and organization of maternal care in rural China. Objectives The general objective of this study was to investigate the state of perinatal health and maternal care and their determinants in rural China under the historic context of major socioeconomic reforms and the one child family planning policy. The specific objectives of the study included: 1) to study pregnancy outcomes and perinatal health and their correlates in a rural Chinese county; 2) to examine the issue of sex ratio at birth and its determinants in a rural Chinese county; 3) to explore the patterns of provision, utilization, and content of maternal care in a rural Chinese county; 4) to investigate the changes in the use of maternal care in China from 1991 to 2003. Materials and Methods This study is based on a project for evaluating the prenatal care programme in Dingyuan county in 1999-2003, Anhui province, China and a nationwide household health survey to describe the changes in maternal care utilization. The approaches used included a retrospective cohort study, cross sectional interview surveys, informant interviews, observations and the use of statistical data. The data sources included the following: 1) A cohort of pregnant women followed from pregnancy up to 7 days after birth in 20 townships in the study county, collecting information on pregnancy outcomes using family planning records; 2) A questionnaire interview survey given to women who gave birth between 2001 and 2003; 3) Various statistical and informant surveys data collected from the study county; 4) Three national household health interview survey data sets (1993-2003) were utilized, and reanalyzed to described the changes in maternity care utilization. Relative risks (RR) and their confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for comparison between parity, approval status, infant sex and township groups. The chi-square test was used to analyse the disparity of use of maternal care between and within urban and rural areas and its trend across the years in China. Logistic regression was used to analyse the factors associated with hospital delivery in rural areas. Results There were 3697 pregnancies in the study cohort, resulting in 3092 live births in a total population of 299463 in the 20 study townships during 1999-2000. The average age at pregnancy in the cohort was 25.9 years. Of the women, 61% were childless, 38% already had one child and 0.3% had two children before the current pregnancy. About 90% of approved pregnancies ended in a live birth while 73% of the unapproved ones were aborted. The perinatal mortality rate was 69 per thousand births. If the 30 induced abortions in which the gestational age was more than 28 weeks had been counted as perinatal deaths, the perinatal mortality rate would have been as high as 78 per thousand. The perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the wealth of the township. Approximately two thirds of the perinatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period. Both the still birth rate and the early neonatal death rate increased with parity. The risk of a stillbirth in a second pregnancy was almost four times that for a first pregnancy, while the risk of early neonatal deaths doubled. The early neonatal mortality rate was twice as high for female as for male infants. The sex difference in the early neonatal mortality rate was mainly attributable to mortality in second births. The male early neonatal mortality rate was not affected by parity, while the female early neonatal mortality rate increased dramatically with parity: it was about six times higher for second births than for first births. About 82% early neonatal deaths happened within 24 hours after birth, and during that time, girls were almost three times more likely to die than boys. The death rate of females on the day of birth increased much more sharply with parity than that of males. The total sex ratio at birth of 3697 registered pregnancies was 152 males to 100 females, with 118 and 287 in first and second pregnancies, respectively. Among unapproved pregnancies, there were almost 5 live-born boys for each girl. Most prenatal and delivery care was to be taken care of in township hospitals. At the village level, there were small private clinics. There was no limitation period for the provision of prenatal and postnatal care by private practitioners. They were not permitted to provide delivery care by the county health bureau, but as some 12% of all births occurred either at home or at private clinics; some village health workers might have been involved. The county level hospitals served as the referral centers for the township hospitals in the county. However, there was no formal regulation or guideline on how the referral system should work. Whether or not a woman was referred to a higher level hospital depended on the individual midwife's professional judgment and on the clients' compliance. The county health bureau had little power over township hospitals, because township hospitals had in the decentralization process become directly accountable to the township government. In the township and county hospitals only 10-20% of the recurrent costs were funded by local government (the township hospital was funded by the township government and the county hospital was funded by the county government) and the hospitals collected user fees to balance their budgets. Also the staff salaries depended on fee incomes by the hospital. The hospitals could define the user charges themselves. Prenatal care consultations were however free in most township hospitals. None of the midwives made postnatal home visits, because of low profit of these services. The three national household health survey data showed that the proportion of women receiving their first prenatal visit within 12 weeks increased greatly from the early to middle 1990s in all areas except for large cities. The increase was much larger in the rural areas, reducing the urban-rural difference from more than 4 times to about 1.4 times. The proportion of women that received antenatal care visits meeting the Ministry of Health s standard (at least 5 times) in the rural areas increased sharply from 12% in 1991-1993 to 36% in 2001-2003. In rural areas, the proportion increase was much faster in less developed areas than in developed areas. The hospital delivery rate increased slightly from 90% to 94% in urban areas while the proportion increased from 27% to 69% in rural areas. The fastest change was found to be in type 4 rural areas, where the utilization even quadrupled. The overall difference between rural and urban areas was substantially narrowed over the period. Multiple logistic regression analysis shows that time periods, residency in rural or urban areas, income levels, age group, education levels, delivery history, occupation, health insurance and distance from the nearest health care facilities were significantly associated with hospital delivery rates. Conclusions 1. Perinatal mortality in this study was much higher than that for urban areas as well as any reported rate from specific studies in rural areas of China. Previous studies in which calculations of infant mortality were not based on epidemiological surveys have been shown to underestimate the rates by more than 50%. 2. Routine statistics collected by the Chinese family planning system proved to be a reliable data source for studying perinatal health, including still births, neonatal deaths, sex ratio at birth and among newborns. National Household Health Survey data proved to be a useful and reliable data source for studying population health and health services. Prior to this research there were few studies in these areas available to international audiences. 3.Though perinatal mortality rate was negatively associated with the level of township economic development, the excess female early neonatal mortality rate contributed much more to high perinatal mortality rate than economic factors. This was likely a result of the role of the family planning policy and the traditional preferences for sons, which leads to lethal neglect of female newborns and high perinatal mortality. 4. The selective abortions of female foetuses were likely to contribute most to the high sex ratio at birth. The underreporting of female births seemed to have played a secondary role. The higher early neonatal mortality rate in second-born as compared to first-born children, particularly in females, may indicate that neglect or poorer care of female newborn infants also contributes to the high sex ratio at birth or among newborns. Existing family planning policy proved not to effectively control the steadily increased birth sex ratio. 5. The rural-urban gap in service utilization was on average significantly narrowed in terms of maternal healthcare in China from 1991 to 2003. This demonstrates that significant achievements in reducing inequities can be made through a combination of socio-economic development and targeted investments in improving health services, including infrastructure, staff capacities, and subsidies to reduce the costs of service utilization for the poorest. However, the huge gap which persisted among cities of different size and within different types of rural areas indicated the need for further efforts to support the poorest areas. 6. Hospital delivery care in the study county was better accepted by women because most of women think delivery care was very important while prenatal and postnatal care were not. Hospital delivery care was more systematically provided and promoted than prenatal and postnatal care by township hospital in the study area. The reliance of hospital staff income on user fees gave the hospitals an incentive to put more emphasis on revenue generating activities such as delivery care instead of prenatal and postnatal care, since delivery care generated much profits than prenatal and postnatal care . Recommendations 1. It is essential for the central government to re-assess and modify existing family planning policies. In order to keep national sex balance, the existing practice of one couple one child in urban areas and at-least-one-son a couple in rural areas should be gradually changed to a two-children-a-couple policy throughout the country. The government should establish a favourable social security policy for couples, especially for rural couples who have only daughters, with particular emphasis on their pension and medical care insurance, combined with an educational campaign for equal rights for boys and girls in society. 2. There is currently no routine vital-statistics registration system in rural China. Using the findings of this study, the central government could set up a routine vital-statistics registration system using family planning routine work records, which could be used by policy makers and researchers. 3. It is possible for the central and provincial government to invest more in the less developed and poor rural areas to increase the access of pregnant women in these areas to maternal care services. Central government together with local government should gradually provide free maternal care including prenatal and postnatal as well as delivery care to the women in poor and less developed rural areas. 4. Future research could be done to explore if county and the township level health care sector and the family planning system could be merged to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of maternal and child care. 5. Future research could be done to explore the relative contribution of maternal care, economic development and family planning policy on perinatal and child health using prospective cohort studies and community based randomized trials. Key words: perinatal health, perinatal mortality, stillbirth, neonatal death, sex selective abortion, sex ratio at birth, family planning, son preference, maternal care, prenatal care, postnatal care, equity, China