Anthropometric measures of obesity-their association with type 2 diabetes and hypertension across ethnic groups

Clinical trials have shown that weight reduction with lifestyles can delay or prevent diabetes and reduce blood pressure. An appropriate definition of obesity using anthropometric measures is useful in predicting diabetes and hypertension at the population level. However, there is debate on which of the measures of obesity is best or most strongly associated with diabetes and hypertension and on what are the optimal cut-off values for body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in this regard. The aims of the study were 1) to compare the strength of the association for undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes (or hypertension) with anthropometric measures of obesity in people of Asian origin, 2) to detect ethnic differences in the association of undiagnosed diabetes with obesity, 3) to identify ethnic- and sex-specific change point values of BMI and WC for changes in the prevalence of diabetes and 4) to evaluate the ethnic-specific WC cutoff values proposed by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) in 2005 for central obesity. The study population comprised 28 435 men and 35 198 women, ≥ 25 years of age, from 39 cohorts participating in the DECODA and DECODE studies, including 5 Asian Indian (n = 13 537), 3 Mauritian Indian (n = 4505) and Mauritian Creole (n = 1075), 8 Chinese (n =10 801), 1 Filipino (n = 3841), 7 Japanese (n = 7934), 1 Mongolian (n = 1991), and 14 European (n = 20 979) studies. The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and central obesity was estimated, using descriptive statistics, and the differences were determined with the χ2 test. The odds ratios (ORs) or  coefficients (from the logistic model) and hazard ratios (HRs, from the Cox model to interval censored data) for BMI, WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) were estimated for diabetes and hypertension. The differences between BMI and WC, WHR or WSR were compared, applying paired homogeneity tests (Wald statistics with 1 df). Hierarchical three-level Bayesian change point analysis, adjusting for age, was applied to identify the most likely cut-off/change point values for BMI and WC in association with previously undiagnosed diabetes. The ORs for diabetes in men (women) with BMI, WC, WHR and WSR were 1.52 (1.59), 1.54 (1.70), 1.53 (1.50) and 1.62 (1.70), respectively and the corresponding ORs for hypertension were 1.68 (1.55), 1.66 (1.51), 1.45 (1.28) and 1.63 (1.50). For diabetes the OR for BMI did not differ from that for WC or WHR, but was lower than that for WSR (p = 0.001) in men while in women the ORs were higher for WC and WSR than for BMI (both p < 0.05). Hypertension was more strongly associated with BMI than with WHR in men (p < 0.001) and most strongly with BMI than with WHR (p < 0.001), WSR (p < 0.01) and WC (p < 0.05) in women. The HRs for incidence of diabetes and hypertension did not differ between BMI and the other three central obesity measures in Mauritian Indians and Mauritian Creoles during follow-ups of 5, 6 and 11 years. The prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others, given the same BMI or WC category. The  coefficients for diabetes in BMI (kg/m2) were (men/women): 0.34/0.28, 0.41/0.43, 0.42/0.61, 0.36/0.59 and 0.33/0.49 for Asian Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian Indian and European (overall homogeneity test: p > 0.05 in men and p < 0.001 in women). Similar results were obtained in WC (cm). Asian Indian women had lower  coefficients than women of other ethnicities. The change points for BMI were 29.5, 25.6, 24.0, 24.0 and 21.5 in men and 29.4, 25.2, 24.9, 25.3 and 22.5 (kg/m2) in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, Japanese, and Asian Indian descent. The change points for WC were 100, 85, 79 and 82 cm in men and 91, 82, 82 and 76 cm in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, and Asian Indian. The prevalence of central obesity using the 2005 IDF definition was higher in Japanese men but lower in Japanese women than in their Asian counterparts. The prevalence of central obesity was 52 times higher in Japanese men but 0.8 times lower in Japanese women compared to the National Cholesterol Education Programme definition. The findings suggest that both BMI and WC predicted diabetes and hypertension equally well in all ethnic groups. At the same BMI or WC level, the prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others. Ethnic- and sex-specific change points of BMI and WC should be considered in setting diagnostic criteria for obesity to detect undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes.

Geometric Characterizations for Patterson-Sullivan Measures of Geometrically Finite Kleinian Groups

The main results of this thesis show that a Patterson-Sullivan measure of a non-elementary geometrically finite Kleinian group can always be characterized using geometric covering and packing constructions. This means that if the standard covering and packing constructions are modified in a suitable way, one can use either one of them to construct a geometric measure which is identical to the Patterson-Sullivan measure. The main results generalize and modify results of D. Sullivan which show that one can sometimes use the standard covering construction to construct a suitable geometric measure and sometimes the standard packing construction. Sullivan has shown also that neither or both of the standard constructions can be used to construct the geometric measure in some situations. The main modifications of the standard constructions are based on certain geometric properties of limit sets of Kleinian groups studied first by P. Tukia. These geometric properties describe how closely the limit set of a given Kleinian group resembles euclidean planes or spheres of varying dimension on small scales. The main idea is to express these geometric properties in a quantitative form which can be incorporated into the gauge functions used in the modified covering and packing constructions. Certain estimation results for general conformal measures of Kleinian groups play a crucial role in the proofs of the main results. These estimation results are generalizations and modifications of similar results considered, among others, by B. Stratmann, D. Sullivan, P. Tukia and S. Velani. The modified constructions are in general defined without reference to Kleinian groups, so they or their variants may prove useful in some other contexts in addition to that of Kleinian groups.

On the moderators of trait avoidance motivation in predicting cognitive biases and adjustment

The present research focused on motivational and personality traits measuring individual differences in the experience of negative affect, in reactivity to negative events, and in the tendency to avoid threats. In this thesis, such traits (i.e., neuroticism and dispositional avoidance motivation) are jointly referred to as trait avoidance motivation. The seven studies presented here examined the moderators of such traits in predicting risk judgments, negatively biased processing, and adjustment. Given that trait avoidance motivation encompasses reactivity to negative events and tendency to avoid threats, it can be considered surprising that this trait does not seem to be related to risk judgments and that it seems to be inconsistently related to negatively biased information processing. Previous work thus suggests that some variable(s) moderate these relations. Furthermore, recent research has suggested that despite the close connection between trait avoidance motivation and (mal)adjustment, measures of cognitive performance may moderate this connection. However, it is unclear whether this moderation is due to different response processes between individuals with different cognitive tendencies or abilities, or to the genuinely buffering effect of high cognitive ability against the negative consequences of high trait avoidance motivation. Studies 1-3 showed that there is a modest direct relation between trait avoidance motivation and risk judgments, but studies 2-3 demonstrated that state motivation moderates this relation. In particular, individuals in an avoidance state made high risk judgments regardless of their level of trait avoidance motivation. This result explained the disparity between the theoretical conceptualization of avoidance motivation and the results of previous studies suggesting that the relation between trait avoidance motivation and risk judgments is weak or nonexistent. Studies 5-6 examined threat identification tendency as a moderator for the relationship between trait avoidance motivation and negatively biased processing. However, no evidence for such moderation was found. Furthermore, in line with previous work, the results of studies 5-6 suggested that trait avoidance motivation is inconsistently related to negatively biased processing, implying that theories concerning traits and information processing may need refining. Study 7 examined cognitive ability as a moderator for the relation between trait avoidance motivation and adjustment, and demonstrated that cognitive ability moderates the relation between trait avoidance motivation and indicators of both self-reported and objectively measured adjustment. Thus, the results of Study 7 supported the buffer explanation for the moderating influence of cognitive performance. To summarize, the results showed that it is possible to find factors that consistently moderate the relations between traits and important outcomes (e.g. adjustment). Identifying such factors and studying their interplay with traits is one of the most important goals of current personality research. The present thesis contributed to this line of work in relation to trait avoidance motivation.

On the environmental genetics of depressive symptoms : Focus on two serotonergic genes

Depression is a complex psychiatric disorder influenced by several genes, environmental factors, and their interplay. Serotonin receptor 2A (HTR2A) and tryptophan hydroxylase 1 (TPH1) genes have been implicated in vulnerability to depression and other psychiatric disorders, but the results have been inconsistent. The present study examined whether these two genes moderated the influence of different depressogenic environmental factors on subthreshold depressive symptoms (assessed on a modified version of Beck s Depression Inventory, BDI) and depression-related temperament, i.e., harm avoidance (assessed on the Temperament and Character Inventory, TCI). The environmental factors included measures of childhood and adolescence exposure, i.e., maternal nurturance and parental socioeconomic status, and adulthood social circumstances, i.e., perceived social support and urban/rural residence. The participants were two randomly selected subsamples (n = 1246, n = 341) from the longitudinal population-based Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study (n = 3596). Childhood environmental factors were assessed when the participants were 3 to 18 years of age, and three years after the baseline. Adulthood environmental factors and outcome measures were assessed 17 and 21 years later when the participants were 21 to 39 years of age. The T102C polymorphism of the HTR2A gene moderated the association between childhood maternal nurturance and adulthood depressive symptoms, such that exposure to high maternal nurturance predicted low depressive symptoms among individuals carrying the T/T or T/C genotypes, but not among those carrying the C/C genotype. Likewise, high parental SES predicted low adulthood harm avoidance in individuals carrying the T/T or T/C genotype, but not in C/C-genotype carriers. Individuals carrying the T/T or T/C genotype were also sensitive to urban/rural residence, such that they had lower depressive symptoms in urban than in rural areas, whereas those carrying the C/C genotype were not sensitive to urban/rural residence difference. HTR2A did not moderate the influence of social support. TheA779C/A218C haplotype of the TPH1 gene was not involved in the association between childhood environment and adulthood outcomes. However, individuals carrying A alleles of the TPH1 haplotype were more vulnerable to the lack of adulthood social support in terms of high depressive symptoms than their counterparts carrying no A alleles. Furthermore, individuals living in remote rural areas and carrying the A/A haplotype had higher depressive symptoms than those carrying other genotypes of the TPH1. The findings suggest that the HTR2A and TPH1 genes may be involved in the development of depression by influencing individual s sensitivity to depressogenic environmental influences.

Methodological and Empirical Advances in the Quantitative Analysis of Spontaneous Responses in Psychophysiological Time Series

The aim of the present study was to advance the methodology and use of time series analysis to quantify dynamic structures in psychophysiological processes and thereby to produce information on spontaneously coupled physiological responses and their behavioral and experiential correlates. Series of analyses using both simulated and empirical cardiac (IBI), electrodermal (EDA), and facial electromyographic (EMG) data indicated that, despite potential autocorrelated structures, smoothing increased the reliability of detecting response coupling from an interindividual distribution of intraindividual measures and that especially the measures of covariance produced accurate information on the extent of coupled responses. This methodology was applied to analyze spontaneously coupled IBI, EDA, and facial EMG responses and vagal activity in their relation to emotional experience and personality characteristics in a group of middle-aged men (n = 37) during the administration of the Rorschach testing protocol. The results revealed new characteristics in the relationship between phasic end-organ synchronization and vagal activity, on the one hand, and individual differences in emotional adjustment to novel situations on the other. Specifically, it appeared that the vagal system is intimately related to emotional and social responsivity. It was also found that the lack of spontaneously synchronized responses is related to decreased energetic arousal (e.g., depression, mood). These findings indicate that the present process analysis approach has many advantages for use in both experimental and applied research, and that it is a useful new paradigm in psychophysiological research. Keywords: Autonomic Nervous System; Emotion; Facial Electromyography; Individual Differences; Spontaneous Responses; Time Series Analysis; Vagal System

Human brain networks of auditory attention and working memory

This thesis examines brain networks involved in auditory attention and auditory working memory using measures of task performance, brain activity, and neuroanatomical connectivity. Auditory orienting and maintenance of attention were compared with visual orienting and maintenance of attention, and top-down controlled attention was compared to bottom-up triggered attention in audition. Moreover, the effects of cognitive load on performance and brain activity were studied using an auditory working memory task. Corbetta and Shulman s (2002) model of visual attention suggests that what is known as the dorsal attention system (intraparietal sulcus/superior parietal lobule, IPS/SPL and frontal eye field, FEF) is involved in the control of top-down controlled attention, whereas what is known as the ventral attention system (temporo-parietal junction, TPJ and areas of the inferior/middle frontal gyrus, IFG/MFG) is involved in bottom-up triggered attention. The present results show that top-down controlled auditory attention also activates IPS/SPL and FEF. Furthermore, in audition, TPJ and IFG/MFG were activated not only by bottom-up triggered attention, but also by top-down controlled attention. In addition, the posterior cerebellum and thalamus were activated by top-down controlled attention shifts and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) was activated by to-be-ignored, but attention-catching salient changes in auditory input streams. VMPFC may be involved in the evaluation of environmental events causing the bottom-up triggered engagement of attention. Auditory working memory activated a brain network that largely overlapped with the one activated by top-down controlled attention. The present results also provide further evidence of the role of the cerebellum in cognitive processing: During auditory working memory tasks, both activity in the posterior cerebellum (the crus I/II) and reaction speed increased when the cognitive load increased. Based on the present results and earlier theories on the role of the cerebellum in cognitive processing, the function of the posterior cerebellum in cognitive tasks may be related to the optimization of response speed.

Neurochemical regulation of auditory information processing studied with EEG/MEG: application to schizophrenia

Cognitive impairments of attention, memory and executive functions are a fundamental feature of the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. The neurophysiological and neurochemical changes in the auditory cortex are shown to underlie cognitive impairmentsin schizophrenia patients. Functional state of the neural substrate of auditory information processing could be objectively and non-invasively probed with auditory event-related potentials (ERPs) and event- related fields (ERFs). In the current work, we explored the neurochemical effect on the neural origins of auditory information processing in relation to schizophrenia. By means of ERPs/ERFs we aimed to determine how neural substrates of auditory information processing are modulated by antipsychotic medication in schizophrenia spectrum patients (Studies I, II) and by neuropharmacological challenges in healthy human subjects (Studies III, IV). First, with auditory ERPs we investigated the effects of olanzapine (Study I) and risperidone (Study II) in a group of patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. After 2 and 4 weeks of treatment, olanzapine has no significant effects on mismatch negativity(MMN) and P300, which, as it has been suggested, respectively reflect preattentive and attention-dependent information processing. After 2 weeks of treatment, risperidone has no significant effect on P300, however risperidone reduces P200 amplitude. This latter effect of risperidone on neural resources responsible for P200 generation could be partly explained through the action of dopamine. Subsequently, we used simultaneous EEG/MEG to investigate the effects of memantine (Study III) and methylphenidate (Study IV) in healthy subjects. We found that memantine modulates MMN response without changing other ERP components. This could be interpreted as being due to the possible influence of memantine through the NMDA receptors on auditory change- detection mechanism, with processing of auditory stimuli remaining otherwise unchanged. Further, we found that methylphenidate does not modulate the MMN response. This finding could indicate no association between catecholaminergic activities and electrophysiological measures of preattentive auditory discrimination processes reflected in the MMN. However, methylphenidate decreases the P200 amplitudes. This could be interpreted as a modulation of auditory information processing reflected in P200 by dopaminergic and noradrenergic systems. Taken together, our set of studies indicates a complex pattern of neurochemical influences produced by the antipsychotic drugs in the neural substrate of auditory information processing in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and by the pharmacological challenges in healthy subjects studied with ERPs and ERFs.

Lukemisen vaikeuden kuntoutus ensiluokkalaisilla : Kolme pedagogista interventiota

Remediation of Reading Difficulties in Grade 1. Three Pedagogical Interventions Keywords: initial teaching, learning to read, reading difficulties, intervention, dyslexia, remediation of dyslexia, home reading, computerized training In this study three different reading interventions were tested for first-graders at risk of reading difficulties at school commencement. The intervention groups were compared together and with a control group receiving special education provided by the school. First intervention was a new approach called syllable rhythmics in which syllabic rhythm, phonological knowledge and letter-phoneme correspondence are emphasized. Syllable rhythmics is based on multi-sensory training elements aimed at finding the most functional modality for every child. The second intervention was computerized training of letter-sound correspondence with the Ekapeli learning game. The third intervention was home-based shared book reading, where every family was given a story book, and dialogic reading style reading and writing exercises were prepared for each chapter of the book. The participants were 80 first-graders in 19 classes in nine schools. The children were matched in four groups according to pre-test results: three intervention and one control. The interventions took ten weeks starting from September in grade 1. The first post-test including several measures of reading abilities was administered in December. The first delayed post-test was administered in March, the second in September in grade 2, and the third, “ALLU” test (reading test for primary school) was administered in March in grade 2. The intervention and control groups differed only slightly from each other in grade 1. However, girls progressed significantly more than boys in both word reading and reading comprehension in December and this difference remained in March. The children who had been cited as inattentive by their teachers also lagged behind the others in the post-tests in December and March. When participants were divided into two groups according to their initial letter knowledge at school entry, the weaker group (maximum 17 correctly named letters in pre-test) progressed more slowly in both word reading and reading comprehension in grade 1. Intervention group and gender had no interaction effect in grade 1. Instead, intervention group and attentiveness had an interaction effect on most test measures the inattentive students in the syllable rhythmic group doing worst and attentive students in the control group doing best in grade 1. The smallest difference between results of attentive and inattentive students was in the Ekapeli group. In grade 2 still only minor differences were found between the intervention groups and control group. The only significant difference was in non-word reading, with the syllable rhythmics group outperforming the other groups in the fall. The difference between girls’ and boys’ performances in both technical reading and text comprehension disappeared in grade 2. The difference between the inattentive and attentive students cold no longer be found in technical reading, and the difference became smaller in text comprehension as well. The difference between two groups divided according to their initial letter knowledge disappeared in technical reading but remained significant in text comprehension measures in the ALLU test in the spring of grade 2. In all, the children in the study did better in the ALLU test than expected according to ALLU test norms. Being the weakest readers in their classes in the pre-test, 52.3 % reached the normal reading ability level. In the norm group 72.3 % of all students attained normal reading ability. The results of this study indicate that different types of remediation programs can be effective, and that special education has been apparently useful. The results suggest careful consideration of first-graders’ initial reading abilities (especially letter knowledge) and possible failure of attention; remediation should be individually targeted while flexibly using different methods.

Biological Control of Oilseed Rape Pests with Entomopathogenic Nematodes

Biological control techniques attract increasing attention as one of the sustainable alternatives to pesticide use in integrated pest management programs. In order to develop sustainable pest management methods for arable crops based on entomopathogenic nematodes (EPN), their efficacy and persistence needed to be investigated, and an economically feasible delivery system had to be developed. In this study, first a survey of entomopathogens was conducted, and a system approach was tested, using the oilseed Brassica (OSB) growing system (OSB, spring wheat, and red clover) as a model. The system approach aimed at determining the potential of Steinernema feltiae (Filipjev) for the control of OSB pests, developing OSB rotation schemes that support EPN persistence, and investigating the impact of the selected biotic and abiotic factors on efficacy and persistence of EPN. This study employed abductive logic (which employs constant interplay between the theory and empirical observation), quantitative methods, and a case study on OSB. Laboratory and field experiments were carried out, and two types of pathogen surveys. A horizontal survey included OSB fields across Estonia, Germany, Poland, Sweden and the UK, while a vertical survey included sampling from two sets of differently managed experimental fields during three years. A new approach was introduced for measuring occurrence, where the prevalence and relative intensity of entomopathogens, biotic agents, and unidentified insect antagonists were determined. The effect of dose, timing, and the application method on S. feltiae in the control of pests in OSB, and the potential of a controlled release delivery system (CRS) were evaluated in the field. Studies on the impact of selected biotic and abiotc factors (Brassica plant, bait insects, developmental stages of Meligethes aeneus Fab., Isaria fumosorosea Wize (Ifr), and organic and synthetic fertilizers) on the efficacy of S. feltiae were conducted in the laboratory. Persistence of S. feltiae in the OSB growing system, and the effect of dose, timing, and the application method, was assessed in the field as part of the efficacy experiments. The impact of selected biotic and abiotic factors on S. feltiae persistence was assessed in laboratory experiments. The pathogen survey showed that the occurrence of entomopathogens is low in the OSB growing system, and that a management system causing less disturbance (ICM) to the soil increases the relative intensity of insect parasitic nematodes and other insect antagonists. A longer study period is required to show any possible impact of ICM on the relative intensity of entomopathogenic fungi, or on the prevalence of entomopathogens. Two different measures of the occurrence yielded different results: the relative intensity revealed the difference between the two different crop management methods, while prevalence did not. The highest efficacy of S. feltiae was achieved by using a low dose and targeting all stages of M. aeneus. When only the larval stage was targeted, the application method and dose had no significant effect. The CRS decreased the pest abundance significantly more than the surface application method. S. feltiae persisted in the OSB fields in Finland for several months, but did not survive the winter. The strain survived for 7 months when it was applied in autumn in Germany, but its populations declined rapidly after winter. The examined biotic and abiotic factors had variable impacts on S. feltiae efficacy and persistence. The two measures, prevalence and relative intensity of entomopathogens, gave valuable information for their use in biocontrol programs. The recommended biocontrol strategy for OSB growing in Finland is inundation and seasonal inoculation of EPN. The impact of some biotic and abiotic factors on S. feltiae efficacy and persistence is significant, and can be used to improve the efficacy of EPN. The CRS is a novel alternative for EPN application, and should also be considered for use on other crops. Keywords: Biological control, inundation, inoculation, conservation, formulation, slow release method, crop rotation, Entomopathogenic nematodes, Steinernema feltiae, oilseed rape pests, Meligethes aeneus, Phyllotreta spp., occurrence, prevalence, intensity, efficacy, persistence, field, Isaria fumosorosea, biotic factors, abiotic factors, interaction, impact, insect stages, integrated crop management, standard (conventional) crop management

A matter of taste : genetic and environmental influences on responses to sweetness

Diet is a major player in the maintenance of health and onset of many diseases of public health importance. The food choice is known to be largely influenced by sensory preferences. However, in many cases it is unclear whether these preferences and dietary behaviors are innate or acquired. The aim of this thesis work was to study the extent to which the individual differences in dietary responses, especially in liking for sweet taste, are influenced by genetic factors. Several traits measuring the responses to sweetness and other dietary variables were applied in four studies: in British (TwinsUK) and Finnish (FinnTwin12 and FinnTwin16) twin studies and in a Finnish migraine family study. All the subjects were adults and they participated in chemosensory measurements (taste and smell tests) and filled in food behavior questionnaires. Further, it was studied, whether the correlations among the variables are mediated by genetic or environmental factors and where in the genome the genes influencing the heritable traits are located. A study of young adult Finnish twins (FinnTwin16, n=4388) revealed that around 40% of the food use is attributable to genetic factors and that the common, childhood environment does not affect the food use even shortly after moving from the parents home. Both the family study (n=146) and the twin studies (British twins, n=663) showed that around half of the variation in the liking for sweetness is inherited. The same result was obtained both by the chemosensory measurements (heritability 41-49%) and the questionnaire variables (heritability 31-54%). By contrast, the intensity perception of sweetness or the responses to saltiness were not influenced by genetic factors. Further, a locus influencing the use-frequency of sweet foods was identified on chromosome 16p. A closer examination of the relationships among the variables based on 663 British twins revealed that several genetic and environmental correlations exist among the different measures of liking for sweetness. However, these correlations were not very strong (range 0.06-0.55) implying that the instruments used measure slightly different aspects of the phenomenon. In addition, the assessment of the associations among responses to fatty foods, dieting behaviors, and body mass index in twin populations (TwinsUK n=1027 and FinnTwin12 n=299) showed that the dieting behaviors (cognitive restraint, uncontrolled eating, and emotional eating) mediate the relationship between obesity and diet. In conclusion, the work increased the understanding of the background variables of human eating behavior. Genetic effects were shown to underlie the variation of many dietary traits, such as liking for sweet taste, use of sweet foods, and dieting behaviors. However, the responses to salty taste were shown to be mainly determined by environmental factors and thus should more easily be modifiable by dietary education, exposure, and learning than sweet taste preferences. Although additional studies are needed to characterize the genetic element located on chromosome 16 that influences the use-frequency of sweet foods, the results underline the importance of inherited factors on human eating behavior.

Essays on macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy rules

Economic and Monetary Union can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities. The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact, which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible. To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy. We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with dynamical stability of the economy. We show that, if we take supply-side effects into ac-count, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions. We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy. The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks. The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit. Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias. We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions. With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model.

Elite Bargaining and the Evolution of Centre-Periphery Relations in Post-Soviet Russia : A Comparative Analysis

This work is concerned with presenting a modified theoretical approach to the study of centre-periphery relations in the Russian Federation. In the widely accepted scientific discourse, the Russian federal system under the Yeltsin Administration (1991-2000) was asymmetrical; largely owing to the varying amount of structural autonomy distributed among the federation s 89 constituent units. While providing an improved understanding as to which political and socio-economic structures contributed to federal asymmetry, it is felt that associated large N-studies have underemphasised the role played by actor agency in re-shaping Russian federal institutions. It is the main task of this thesis to reintroduce /re-emphasise the importance of actor agency as a major contributing element of institutional change in the Russian federal system. By focusing on the strategic agency of regional elites simultaneously within regional and federal contexts, the thesis adopts the position that political, ethnic and socio-economic structural factors alone cannot fully determine the extent to which regional leaders were successful in their pursuit of economic and political pay-offs from the institutionally weakened federal centre. Furthermore, this work hypothesises that under conditions of federal institutional uncertainty, it is the ability of regional leaders to simultaneously interpret various mutable structural conditions then translate them into plausible strategies which accounts for the regions ability to extract variable amounts of economic and political pay-offs from the Russian federal system. The thesis finds that while the hypothesis is accurate in its theoretical assumptions, several key conclusions provide paths for further inquiry posed by the initial research question. First, without reliable information or stable institutions to guide their actions, both regional and federal elites were forced into ad-hoc decision-making in order to maintain their core strategic focus: political survival. Second, instead of attributing asymmetry to either actor agency or structural factors exclusively, the empirical data shows that both agency and structures interact symbiotically in the strategic formulation process, thus accounting for the sub-optimal nature of several of the actions taken in the adopted cases. Third, as actor agency and structural factors mutate over time, so, too do the perceived payoffs from elite competition. In the case of the Russian federal system, the stronger the federal centre became, the less likely it was that regional leaders could extract the high degree of economic and political pay-offs that they clamoured for earlier in the Yeltsin period. Finally, traditional approaches to the study of federal systems which focus on institutions as measures of federalism are not fully applicable in the Russian case precisely because the institutions themselves were a secondary point of contention between competing elites. Institutional equilibriums between the regions and Moscow were struck only when highly personalised elite preferences were satisfied. Therefore the Russian federal system is the product of short-term, institutional solutions suited to elite survival strategies developed under conditions of economic, political and social uncertainty.

Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

The effects of the 2004 reduction in the price of alcohol on alcohol-related harm in Finland : A natural experiment based on register data

Changes in alcohol pricing have been documented as inversely associated with changes in consumption and alcohol-related problems. Evidence of the association between price changes and health problems is nevertheless patchy and is based to a large extent on cross-sectional state-level data, or time series of such cross-sectional analyses. Natural experimental studies have been called for. There was a substantial reduction in the price of alcohol in Finland in 2004 due to a reduction in alcohol taxes of one third, on average, and the abolition of duty-free allowances for travellers from the EU. These changes in the Finnish alcohol policy could be considered a natural experiment, which offered a good opportunity to study what happens with regard to alcohol-related problems when prices go down. The present study investigated the effects of this reduction in alcohol prices on (1) alcohol-related and all-cause mortality, and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, (2) alcohol-related morbidity in terms of hospitalisation, (3) socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality, and (4) small-area differences in interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area. Differential trends in alcohol-related mortality prior to the price reduction were also analysed. A variety of population-based register data was used in the study. Time-series intervention analysis modelling was applied to monthly aggregations of deaths and hospitalisation for the period 1996-2006. These and other mortality analyses were carried out for men and women aged 15 years and over. Socioeconomic differentials in alcohol-related mortality were assessed on a before/after basis, mortality being followed up in 2001-2003 (before the price reduction) and 2004-2005 (after). Alcohol-related mortality was defined in all the studies on mortality on the basis of information on both underlying and contributory causes of death. Hospitalisation related to alcohol meant that there was a reference to alcohol in the primary diagnosis. Data on interpersonal violence was gathered from 86 administrative small-areas in the Helsinki Metropolitan area and was also assessed on a before/after basis followed up in 2002-2003 and 2004-2005. The statistical methods employed to analyse these data sets included time-series analysis, and Poisson and linear regression. The results of the study indicate that alcohol-related deaths increased substantially among men aged 40-69 years and among women aged 50-69 after the price reduction when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. The increase was mainly attributable to chronic causes, particularly liver diseases. Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased considerably among the-over-69-year-olds. The increase in alcohol-related mortality in absolute terms among the 30-59-year-olds was largest among the unemployed and early-age pensioners, and those with a low level of education, social class or income. The relative differences in change between the education and social class subgroups were small. The employed and those under the age of 35 did not suffer from increased alcohol-related mortality in the two years following the price reduction. The gap between the age and education groups, which was substantial in the 1980s, thus further broadened. With regard to alcohol-related hospitalisation, there was an increase in both chronic and acute causes among men under the age of 70, and among women in the 50-69-year age group when trends and seasonal variation were taken into account. Alcohol dependence and other alcohol-related mental and behavioural disorders were the largest category in both the total number of chronic hospitalisation and in the increase. There was no increase in the rate of interpersonal violence in the Helsinki Metropolitan area, and even a decrease in domestic violence. There was a significant relationship between the measures of social disadvantage on the area level and interpersonal violence, although the differences in the effects of the price reduction between the different areas were small. The findings of the present study suggest that that a reduction in alcohol prices may lead to a substantial increase in alcohol-related mortality and morbidity. However, large population group differences were observed regarding responsiveness to the price changes. In particular, the less privileged, such as the unemployed, were most sensitive. In contrast, at least in the Finnish context, the younger generations and the employed do not appear to be adversely affected, and those in the older age groups may even benefit from cheaper alcohol in terms of decreased rates of CVD mortality. The results also suggest that reductions in alcohol prices do not necessarily affect interpersonal violence. The population group differences in the effects of the price changes on alcohol-related harm should be acknowledged, and therefore the policy actions should focus on the population subgroups that are primarily responsive to the price reduction.

The sources of moral motivation : studies on empathy, guilt, shame and values

The goals of this study were to analyze the forms of emotional tendencies that are likely to motivate moral behaviors, and to find correlates for these tendencies. In study 1, students narratives of their own guilt or shame experiences were analyzed. The results showed that pure shame was more likely to motivate avoidance than reparation, whereas guilt and combination of guilt and shame were likely to motivate reparation. However, all types of emotion could lead to chronic rumination if the person was not clearly responsible for the situation. In study 2, the relations of empathy with two measures of guilt were examined in a sample of 13- to 16-year-olds (N=113). Empathy was measured using Davis s IRI and guilt by Tangney s TOSCA and Hoffman s semi-projective story completion method that includes two different scenarios, guilt over cheating and guilt over inaction. Empathy correlated more strongly with both measures of guilt than the two measures correlated with each other. Hoffman s guilt over inaction was more strongly associated with empathy measures in girls than in boys, whereas for guilt over cheating the pattern was the opposite. Girls and boys who describe themselves as empathetic may emphasize different aspect of morality and feel guilty in different contexts. In study 3, cultural and gender differences in guilt and shame (TOSCA) and value priorities (the Schwartz Value Survey) were studied in samples of Finnish (N=156) and Peruvian (N=159) adolescents. Gender differences were found to be larger and more stereotypical among the Finns than among the Peruvians. Finnish girls were more prone to guilt and shame than boys were, whereas among the Peruvians there was no gender difference in guilt, and boys were more shame-prone than girls. The results support the view that psychological gender differences are largest individualistic societies. In study 4, the relations of value priorities to guilt, shame and empathy were examined in two samples, one of 15 19-year-old high school students (N = 207), and the other of military conscripts (N = 503). Guilt was, in both samples, positively related to valuing universalism, benevolence, tradition, and conformity, and negatively related to valuing power, hedonism, stimulation, and self-direction. The results for empathy were similar, but the relation to the openness conservation value dimension was weaker. Shame and personal distress were weakly related to values. In sum, shame without guilt and the TOSCA shame scale are tendencies that are unlikely to motivate moral behavior in Finnish cultural context. Guilt is likely to be connected to positive social behaviors, but excessive guilt can cause psychological problems. Moral emotional tendencies are related to culture, cultural conceptions of gender and to individual value priorities.