The Power of Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

Bootstrap likelihood ratio tests of cointegration rank are commonly used because they tend to have rejection probabilities that are closer to the nominal level than the rejection probabilities of the correspond- ing asymptotic tests. The e¤ect of bootstrapping the test on its power is largely unknown. We show that a new computationally inexpensive procedure can be applied to the estimation of the power function of the bootstrap test of cointegration rank. The bootstrap test is found to have a power function close to that of the level-adjusted asymp- totic test. The bootstrap test estimates the level-adjusted power of the asymptotic test highly accurately. The bootstrap test may have low power to reject the null hypothesis of cointegration rank zero, or underestimate the cointegration rank. An empirical application to Euribor interest rates is provided as an illustration of the findings.

Post-industrial Intervention : An Activity-Theoretical Expedition Tracing the Proximal Development of Forms of Conducting Interventions

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Oppimisen kohteen ja oppijan vastavuoroinen kehitys : Teleyrityksen asiakaspalvelun työyhteisöjen oppimiskäytäntöjen uudistaminen osana teknologis-taloudellista kumousta

Reciprocal development of the object and subject of learning. The renewal of the learning practices of front-line communities in a telecommunications company as part of the techno-economical paradigm change. Current changes in production have been seen as an indication of a shift from the techno-economical paradigm of a mass-production era to a new paradigm of the information and communication technological era. The rise of knowledge management in the late 1990s can be seen as one aspect of this paradigm shift, as knowledge creation and customer responsiveness were recognized as the prime factors in business competition. However, paradoxical conceptions concerning learning and agency have been presented in the discussion of knowledge management. One prevalent notion in the literature is that learning is based on individuals’ voluntary actions and this has now become incompatible with the growing interest in knowledge-management systems. Furthermore, commonly held view of learning as a general process that is independent of the object of learning contradicts the observation that the current need for new knowledge and new competences are caused by ongoing techno-economic changes. Even though the current view acknowledges that individuals and communities have key roles in knowledge creation, this conception defies the idea of the individuals’ and communities’ agency in developing the practices through which they learn. This research therefore presents a new theoretical interpretation of learning and agency based on Cultural-Historical Activity Theory. This approach overcomes the paradoxes in knowledge-management theory and offers means for understanding and analyzing changes in the ways of learning within work communities. This research is also an evaluation of the Competence-Laboratory method which was developed as part of the study as a special application of Developmental Work Research methodology. The research data comprises the videotaped competence-laboratory processes of four front-line work communities in a telecommunications company. The findings reported in the five articles included in this thesis are based on the analyses of this data. The new theoretical interpretation offered here is based on the assessment that the findings reported in the articles represent one of the front lines of the ongoing historical transformation of work-related learning since the research site represents one of the key industries of the new “knowledge society”. The research can be characterized as elaboration of a hypothesis concerning the development of work related learning. According to the new theoretical interpretation, the object of activity is also the object of distributed learning in work communities. The historical socialization of production has increased the number of actors involved in an activity, which has also increased the number of mutual interdependencies as well as the need for communication. Learning practices and organizational systems of learning are historically developed forms of distributed learning mediated by specific forms of division of labor, specific tools, and specific rules. However, the learning practices of the mass production era become increasingly inadequate to accommodate the conditions in the new economy. This was manifested in the front-line work communities in the research site as an aggravating contradiction between the new objects of learning and the prevailing learning practices. The constituent element of this new theoretical interpretation is the idea of a work community’s learning as part of its collaborative mastery of the developing business activity. The development of the business activity is at the same time a practical and an epistemic object for the community. This kind of changing object cannot be mastered by using learning practices designed for the stable conditions of mass production, because learning has to change along the changes in business. According to the model introduced in this thesis, the transformation of learning proceeds through specific stages: predefined learning tasks are first transformed into learning through re-conceptualizing the object of the activity and of the joint learning and then, as the new object becomes stabilized, into the creation of new kinds of learning practices to master the re-defined object of the activity. This transformation of the form of learning is realized through a stepwise expansion of the work community’s agency. To summarize, the conceptual model developed in this study sets the tool-mediated co-development of the subject and the object of learning as the theoretical starting point for developing new, second-generation knowledge management methods. Key words: knowledge management, learning practice, organizational system of learning, agency

Koulutuksellisen syrjäytymisriskin ennustettavuus yhteishakuvalintojen kautta tarkasteltuna : koulupudokkuusriskin yhteys oppilaan kognitiiviseen kompetenssiin, koulumenestykseen sekä itseä ja vanhempia koskeviin uskomuksiin

The objective of this study was to find factors that could predict educational dropout. Dropout risk was assessed against pupil’s cognitive competence, success in school, and personal beliefs regarding self and parents, while taking into account the pupil’s background and gender. Based on earlier research, an assumption was made that a pupil’s gender, success in school, and parent’s education would be related with dropping out. This study is part of a project funded by the Academy of Finland and led by Professor Jarkko Hautamäki. The project aims to use longitudinal study to assess the development of pupils’ skills in learning to learn. The target group of this study consisted all Finnish speaking ninth graders of a municipality in Southern Finland. There were in total 1534 pupils, of which 809 were girls and 725 boys. The assessment of learning to learn skills was performed about ninth graders in spring 2004. “Opiopi” test material was used in the assessment, consisting of cognitive tests and questions measuring beliefs. At the same time, pupils’ background information was collected together with their self-reported average grade of all school subjects. During spring 2009, the pupils’ joint application data from years 2004 and 2005 was collected from the Finnish joint application registers. The data were analyzed using quantitative methods assisted by the SPSS for Windows computer software. Analysis was conducted through statistical indices, differences in grade averages, multilevel model, multivariate analysis of variance, and logistic regression analysis. Based on earlier research, dropouts were defined as pupils that had not been admitted to or had not applied to second degree education under the joint application system. Using this definition, 157 students in the target group were classified as dropouts (10 % of the target group): 88 girls and 69 boys. The study showed that the school does not affect the drop-out risk but the school class explains 7,5 % of variation in dropout risk. Among girls, dropping out is predicted by a poor average grade, a lack of beliefs supporting learning, and an unrealistic primary choice in joint application system compared to one’s success in school. Among boys, a poor average grade, unrealistic choices in joint application system, and the belief of parent’s low appreciation of education were related to dropout risk. Keywords educational exclusion, school dropout, success in school, comprehensive school, learning to learn

Yhdessä ajattelu ja osallistuminen : Interventiotutkimus yhteistoiminnallisen oppimisen kehittymisestä kahdessa alakoulun pienryhmässä

Participation and social modes of thinking - An intervention study on the development of collaborative learning in two primary school small groups This study explores the thinking together -intervention programme in three primary school classes. The object of the intervention was to teach pupils to use exploratory talk in small group collaboratory learning. Exploratory talk is a type of talk in which joint reasoning is made explicit. Research has shown that exploratory talk can improve mathematics and science learning, argumentative skills and competence in reasoning tests. The object of this study was to investigate the theory of social modes of thinking which the intervention program is based on. I tried to find out how the thinking together -intervention programme suits the Finnish context. Therefore my study is part of an international research project of interventions that have been implemented for example in Great-Britain and in Mexico. One essential drawback in former research made on thinking together -approach is that the nature of participation has not been studied properly. In this study I also examine how the nature of participation develops in small groups. In addition to that I aim to develope a theoretical framework which includes both the perspectives of the social modes of thinking and the nature of participation. The perspective of this study is sociocultural. The research material consists of video recordings of collaborative learning tasks of two small groups. In groups there were pupils of age groups 9 - 11. I study the nature of participation using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative methods include for example IR-analysis method and counting of turns at talk and words. I also use qualitative content analysis to analyze both the nature of participation and social modes of thinking. As a result of my study I found out that the interaction of the other group was leadership based and in the other group the interaction was without leadership relations. In both groups the participation was quantitatively more symmetrical in the end of the intervention. In the group in which the interaction was leadership based the participation of the pupils was more symmetrical. Exploratory talk was found more in the group without leadership relations, but in both groups the amount of exploratory talk was increased during the intervention. Leadership based interaction was further divided into interaction of alienating and inclusive leadership according to how symmetrical the participation was in the dialogue. Exploratory talk was found only when the leadership was inclusive or the interaction was without leadership relations. The main result of the study was that the exploratory talk was further divided into four subcategories according to the nature of participation. In open and inclusive exploratory talk all group members participated initiatively and their initiatives were responded by others. In closed and uneven exploratory talk some group members couldn't participate properly. Therefore it cannot be said that exploratory talk guarantees symmetrical participation. The nature of participation must be investigated separately.

Quality of ALICE SSD modules revealed by electrical tests

ALICE (A Large Ion Collider Experiment) is an experiment at CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research), where a heavy-ion detector is dedicated to exploit the unique physics potential of nucleus-nucleus interactions at LHC (Large Hadron Collider) energies. In a part of that project, 716 so-called type V4 modules were assembles in Detector Laboratory of Helsinki Institute of Physics during the years 2004 - 2006. Altogether over a million detector strips has made this project the most massive particle detector project in the science history of Finland. One ALICE SSD module consists of a double-sided silicon sensor, two hybrids containing 12 HAL25 front end readout chips and some passive components, such has resistors and capacitors. The components are connected together by TAB (Tape Automated Bonding) microcables. The components of the modules were tested in every assembly phase with comparable electrical tests to ensure the reliable functioning of the detectors and to plot the possible problems. The components were accepted or rejected by the limits confirmed by ALICE collaboration. This study is concentrating on the test results of framed chips, hybrids and modules. The total yield of the framed chips is 90.8%, hybrids 96.1% and modules 86.2%. The individual test results have been investigated in the light of the known error sources that appeared during the project. After solving the problems appearing during the learning-curve of the project, the material problems, such as defected chip cables and sensors, seemed to induce the most of the assembly rejections. The problems were typically seen in tests as too many individual channel failures. Instead, the bonding failures rarely caused the rejections of any component. One sensor type among three different sensor manufacturers has proven to have lower quality than the others. The sensors of this manufacturer are very noisy and their depletion voltage are usually outside of the specification given to the manufacturers. Reaching 95% assembling yield during the module production demonstrates that the assembly process has been highly successful.

Joint Regression and Association Models for Repeated Categorical Responses

The focus of this study is on statistical analysis of categorical responses, where the response values are dependent of each other. The most typical example of this kind of dependence is when repeated responses have been obtained from the same study unit. For example, in Paper I, the response of interest is the pneumococcal nasopharengyal carriage (yes/no) on 329 children. For each child, the carriage is measured nine times during the first 18 months of life, and thus repeated respones on each child cannot be assumed independent of each other. In the case of the above example, the interest typically lies in the carriage prevalence, and whether different risk factors affect the prevalence. Regression analysis is the established method for studying the effects of risk factors. In order to make correct inferences from the regression model, the associations between repeated responses need to be taken into account. The analysis of repeated categorical responses typically focus on regression modelling. However, further insights can also be gained by investigating the structure of the association. The central theme in this study is on the development of joint regression and association models. The analysis of repeated, or otherwise clustered, categorical responses is computationally difficult. Likelihood-based inference is often feasible only when the number of repeated responses for each study unit is small. In Paper IV, an algorithm is presented, which substantially facilitates maximum likelihood fitting, especially when the number of repeated responses increase. In addition, a notable result arising from this work is the freely available software for likelihood-based estimation of clustered categorical responses.

Essays on Microcredit in Rural Bangladesh

This thesis is a collection of three essays on Bangladeshi microcredit. One of the essays examines the effect of microcredit on the cost of crime. The other two analyze the functioning mechanism of microcredit programs, i.e. credit allocation rules and credit recovery policy. In Essay 1, the demand for microcredit and its allocation rules is studied. Microcredit is claimed to be the most effective means of supplying credit to the poorest of the poor in rural Bangladesh. This fact has not yet been examined among households who demand microcredit. The results of this essay show that educated households are more likely to demand microcredit and its demand does not differ by sex. The results also show that microcredit programs follow different credit allocation rules for male and female applicants. Education is an essential characteristic for both sexes that credit programs consider in allocating credit. In Essay 2, the focus is to establish a link between microcredit and the incidence of rural crime in Bangladesh. The basic hypothesis is that microcredit programs jointly hold the group responsibility which provides an incentive for group members to protect each other from criminal gang in order to safeguard their own economic interests. The key finding of this essay is that the average cost of crime for non-borrowers is higher than that for borrowers. In particular, 10% increase in the credit reduces the costs of crime by 4.2%. The third essay analyzes the reasons of high repayment rate amid Bangladeshi microcredit programs. The existing literature argues that credit applicants are able to screen out the high risk applicants in the group formulation stage using their superior local information. In addition, due to the joint liability mechanism of the programs, group members monitor each others economic activities to ensure the minimal misuse of credit. The arguments in the literature are based on the assumption that once the credit is provided, credit programs have no further role in ensuring that repayments are honored by the group. In contrast, using survey data this essay documents that credit programs use in addition organizational pressures such as humiliation and harassment the non-payer to recover the unpaid installments. The results also show that the group mechanisms do not have a significant effect in recovering default dues.

Spirometric studies on the adult general population of Helsinki : bronchodilation responses, determinants, and intrasession repeatability of FEV1, FEV6, FVC, and forced expiratory time

Spirometry is the most widely used lung function test in the world. It is fundamental in diagnostic and functional evaluation of various pulmonary diseases. In the studies described in this thesis, the spirometric assessment of reversibility of bronchial obstruction, its determinants, and variation features are described in a general population sample from Helsinki, Finland. This study is a part of the FinEsS study, which is a collaborative study of clinical epidemiology of respiratory health between Finland (Fin), Estonia (Es), and Sweden (S). Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) constitute the two major obstructive airways diseases. The prevalence of asthma has increased, with around 6% of the population in Helsinki reporting physician-diagnosed asthma. The main cause of COPD is smoking with changes in smoking habits in the population affecting its prevalence with a delay. Whereas airway obstruction in asthma is by definition reversible, COPD is characterized by fixed obstruction. Cough and sputum production, the first symptoms of COPD, are often misinterpreted for smokers cough and not recognized as first signs of a chronic illness. Therefore COPD is widely underdiagnosed. More extensive use of spirometry in primary care is advocated to focus smoking cessation interventions on populations at risk. The use of forced expiratory volume in six seconds (FEV6) instead of forced vital capacity (FVC) has been suggested to enable office spirometry to be used in earlier detection of airflow limitation. Despite being a widely accepted standard method of assessment of lung function, the methodology and interpretation of spirometry are constantly developing. In 2005, the ATS/ERS Task Force issued a joint statement which endorsed the 12% and 200 ml thresholds for significant change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) or FVC during bronchodilation testing, but included the notion that in cases where only FVC improves it should be verified that this is not caused by a longer exhalation time in post-bronchodilator spirometry. This elicited new interest in the assessment of forced expiratory time (FET), a spirometric variable not usually reported or used in assessment. In this population sample, we examined FET and found it to be on average 10.7 (SD 4.3) s and to increase with ageing and airflow limitation in spirometry. The intrasession repeatability of FET was the poorest of the spirometric variables assessed. Based on the intrasession repeatability, a limit for significant change of 3 s was suggested for FET during bronchodilation testing. FEV6 was found to perform equally well as FVC in the population and in a subgroup of subjects with airways obstruction. In the bronchodilation test, decreases were frequently observed in FEV1 and particularly in FVC. The limit of significant increase based on the 95th percentile of the population sample was 9% for FEV1 and 6% for FEV6 and FVC; these are slightly lower than the current limits for single bronchodilation tests (ATS/ERS guidelines). FEV6 was proven as a valid alternative to FVC also in the bronchodilation test and would remove the need to control duration of exhalation during the spirometric bronchodilation test.

Bioabsorbable materials for osteosynthesis and small joint arthroplasty in the hand

Fractures and arthritic joint destruction are common in the hand. A reliable and stable fracture fixation can be achieved by metal implants, which however, become unnecessary or even harmful after consolidation. The silicone implant arthroplasty is the current method of choice for reconstruction of metacarpophalangeal joints in rheumatoid patients. However, the outcome tends to worsen with long-term follow-up and implant-related complications become frequent. To address these problems, bioabsorbable implants were designed for the hand area. Aims of the studies were: 1) to evaluate the biomechanical stabilities provided by self- reinforced (SR) bioabsorbable implants in a transverse and an oblique osteotomy of small tubular bones and to compare them with those provided by metal implants; 2) to evaluate the SR poly-L/DL-lactide 70/30 plate for osteosynthesis in a proof-of-principle type of experiment in three cases of hand injuries; and 3) to evaluate the poly-L/D-lactide (PLA) 96/4 joint scaffold, a composite joint implant with a supplementary intramedullary Polyactive® stem and Swanson silicone implant in an experimental small joint arthroplasty model. Methods used were: 1) 112 fresh frozen human cadaver and 160 pig metacarpal bones osteotomised transversally or obliquely, respectively, and tested ex vivo in three point bending and in torsion; 2) three patient cases of complex hand injuries; and 3) the fifth metacarpophalangeal joints reconstructed in 18 skeletally-mature minipigs and studied radiologically and histologically. The initial fixation stabilities provided by bioabsorbable implants in the tubular bones of the hand were comparable with currently-employed metal fixation techniques, and were sufficient for fracture stabilisation in three preliminary cases in the hand. However, in torsion the stabilities provided by bioabsorbable implants were lower than that provided by metal counterparts. The bioabsorbable plate enhanced the bending stability for the bioabsorbable fixation construct. PLA 96/4 joint scaffolds demonstrated good biocompatibility and enabled fibrous tissue in-growth in situ. After scaffold degradation, a functional, stable pseudarthrosis with dense fibrous connective tissue was formed. However, the supplementary Polyactive® stem caused a deleterious tissue reaction and therefore the stem can not be applied to the composite joint implant. The bioabsorbable implants have potential for use in clinical hand surgery, but have to await validation in clinical patient series and controlled trials.

Quantifying Time Awake Posturographically

This thesis focuses on the issue of testing sleepiness quantitatively. The issue is relevant to policymakers concerned with traffic- and occupational safety; such testing provides a tool for safety legislation and -surveillance. The findings of this thesis provide guidelines for a posturographic sleepiness tester. Sleepiness ensuing from staying awake merely 17 h impairs our performance as much as the legally proscribed blood alcohol concentration 0.5 does. Hence, sleepiness is a major risk factor in transportation and occupational accidents. The lack of convenient, commercial sleepiness tests precludes testing impending sleepiness levels contrary to simply breath testing for alcohol intoxication. Posturography is a potential sleepiness test, since clinical diurnal balance testing suggests the hypothesis that time awake could be posturographically estimable. Relying on this hypothesis this thesis examines posturographic sleepiness testing for instrumentation purposes. Empirical results from 63 subjects for whom we tested balance with a force platform during wakefulness for maximum 36 h show that sustained wakefulness impairs balance. The results show that time awake is posturographically estimable with 88% accuracy and 97% precision which validates our hypothesis. Results also show that balance scores tested at 13:30 hours serve as a threshold to detect excessive sleepiness. Analytical results show that the test length has a marked effect on estimation accuracy: 18 s tests suffice to identify sleepiness related balance changes, but trades off some of the accuracy achieved with 30 s tests. The procedure to estimate time awake relies on equating the subject s test score to a reference table (comprising balance scores tested during sustained wakefulness, regressed against time awake). Empirical results showed that sustained wakefulness explains 60% of the diurnal balance variations, whereas the time of day explains 40% of the balance variations. The latter fact implies that time awake estimations also must rely on knowing the local times of both test and reference scores.

High-quality polar UV measurements : scientific analyses and transfer of the irradiance scale

The Earth's ecosystems are protected from the dangerous part of the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation by stratospheric ozone, which absorbs most of the harmful UV wavelengths. Severe depletion of stratospheric ozone has been observed in the Antarctic region, and to a lesser extent in the Arctic and midlatitudes. Concern about the effects of increasing UV radiation on human beings and the natural environment has led to ground based monitoring of UV radiation. In order to achieve high-quality UV time series for scientific analyses, proper quality control (QC) and quality assurance (QA) procedures have to be followed. In this work, practices of QC and QA are developed for Brewer spectroradiometers and NILU-UV multifilter radiometers, which measure in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, respectively. These practices are applicable to other UV instruments as well. The spectral features and the effect of different factors affecting UV radiation were studied for the spectral UV time series at Sodankylä. The QA of the Finnish Meteorological Institute's (FMI) two Brewer spectroradiometers included daily maintenance, laboratory characterizations, the calculation of long-term spectral responsivity, data processing and quality assessment. New methods for the cosine correction, the temperature correction and the calculation of long-term changes of spectral responsivity were developed. Reconstructed UV irradiances were used as a QA tool for spectroradiometer data. The actual cosine correction factor was found to vary between 1.08-1.12 and 1.08-1.13. The temperature characterization showed a linear temperature dependence between the instrument's internal temperature and the photon counts per cycle. Both Brewers have participated in international spectroradiometer comparisons and have shown good stability. The differences between the Brewers and the portable reference spectroradiometer QASUME have been within 5% during 2002-2010. The features of the spectral UV radiation time series at Sodankylä were analysed for the time period 1990-2001. No statistically significant long-term changes in UV irradiances were found, and the results were strongly dependent on the time period studied. Ozone was the dominant factor affecting UV radiation during the springtime, whereas clouds played a more important role during the summertime. During this work, the Antarctic NILU-UV multifilter radiometer network was established by the Instituto Nacional de Meteorogía (INM) as a joint Spanish-Argentinian-Finnish cooperation project. As part of this work, the QC/QA practices of the network were developed. They included training of the operators, daily maintenance, regular lamp tests and solar comparisons with the travelling reference instrument. Drifts of up to 35% in the sensitivity of the channels of the NILU-UV multifilter radiometers were found during the first four years of operation. This work emphasized the importance of proper QC/QA, including regular lamp tests, for the multifilter radiometers also. The effect of the drifts were corrected by a method scaling the site NILU-UV channels to those of the travelling reference NILU-UV. After correction, the mean ratios of erythemally-weighted UV dose rates measured during solar comparisons between the reference NILU-UV and the site NILU-UVs were 1.007±0.011 and 1.012±0.012 for Ushuaia and Marambio, respectively, when the solar zenith angle varied up to 80°. Solar comparisons between the NILU-UVs and spectroradiometers showed a ±5% difference near local noon time, which can be seen as proof of successful QC/QA procedures and transfer of irradiance scales. This work also showed that UV measurements made in the Arctic and Antarctic can be comparable with each other.