Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

A bayesian probabilistic approach to structural health monitoring

A Bayesian probabilistic methodology for on-line structural health monitoring which addresses the issue of parameter uncertainty inherent in problem is presented. The method uses modal parameters for a limited number of modes identified from measurements taken at a restricted number of degrees of freedom of a structure as the measured structural data. The application presented uses a linear structural model whose stiffness matrix is parameterized to develop a class of possible models. Within the Bayesian framework, a joint probability density function (PDF) for the model stiffness parameters given the measured modal data is determined. Using this PDF, the marginal PDF of the stiffness parameter for each substructure given the data can be calculated.

Monitoring the health of a structure using these marginal PDFs involves two steps. First, the marginal PDF for each model parameter given modal data from the undamaged structure is found. The structure is then periodically monitored and updated marginal PDFs are determined. A measure of the difference between the calibrated and current marginal PDFs is used as a means to characterize the health of the structure. A procedure for interpreting the measure for use by an expert system in on-line monitoring is also introduced.

The probabilistic framework is developed in order to address the model parameter uncertainty issue inherent in the health monitoring problem. To illustrate this issue, consider a very simplified deterministic structural health monitoring method. In such an approach, the model parameters which minimize an error measure between the measured and model modal values would be used as the "best" model of the structure. Changes between the model parameters identified using modal data from the undamaged structure and subsequent modal data would be used to find the existence, location and degree of damage. Due to measurement noise, limited modal information, and model error, the "best" model parameters might vary from one modal dataset to the next without any damage present in the structure. Thus, difficulties would arise in separating normal variations in the identified model parameters based on limitations of the identification method and variations due to true change in the structure. The Bayesian framework described in this work provides a means to handle this parametric uncertainty.

The probabilistic health monitoring method is applied to simulated data and laboratory data. The results of these tests are presented.

Extracting material response from simple mechanical tests on hardening-softening-hardening viscoplastic solids

Compliant foams are usually characterized by a wide range of desirable mechanical properties. These properties include viscoelasticity at different temperatures, energy absorption, recoverability under cyclic loading, impact resistance, and thermal, electrical, acoustic and radiation-resistance. Some foams contain nano-sized features and are used in small-scale devices. This implies that the characteristic dimensions of foams span multiple length scales, rendering modeling their mechanical properties difficult. Continuum mechanics-based models capture some salient experimental features like the linear elastic regime, followed by non-linear plateau stress regime. However, they lack mesostructural physical details. This makes them incapable of accurately predicting local peaks in stress and strain distributions, which significantly affect the deformation paths. Atomistic methods are capable of capturing the physical origins of deformation at smaller scales, but suffer from impractical computational intensity. Capturing deformation at the so-called meso-scale, which is capable of describing the phenomenon at a continuum level, but with some physical insights, requires developing new theoretical approaches.

A fundamental question that motivates the modeling of foams is ‘how to extract the intrinsic material response from simple mechanical test data, such as stress vs. strain response?’ A 3D model was developed to simulate the mechanical response of foam-type materials. The novelty of this model includes unique features such as the hardening-softening-hardening material response, strain rate-dependence, and plastically compressible solids with plastic non-normality. Suggestive links from atomistic simulations of foams were borrowed to formulate a physically informed hardening material input function. Motivated by a model that qualitatively captured the response of foam-type vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VACNT) pillars under uniaxial compression [2011,“Analysis of Uniaxial Compression of Vertically Aligned Carbon Nanotubes,” J. Mech.Phys. Solids, 59, pp. 2227–2237, Erratum 60, 1753–1756 (2012)], the property space exploration was advanced to three types of simple mechanical tests: 1) uniaxial compression, 2) uniaxial tension, and 3) nanoindentation with a conical and a flat-punch tip. The simulations attempt to explain some of the salient features in experimental data, like
1) The initial linear elastic response.
2) One or more nonlinear instabilities, yielding, and hardening.

The model-inherent relationships between the material properties and the overall stress-strain behavior were validated against the available experimental data. The material properties include the gradient in stiffness along the height, plastic and elastic compressibility, and hardening. Each of these tests was evaluated in terms of their efficiency in extracting material properties. The uniaxial simulation results proved to be a combination of structural and material influences. Out of all deformation paths, flat-punch indentation proved to be superior since it is the most sensitive in capturing the material properties.

A search for fractionally charged particles in cosmic rays and a theoretical interpretation of the results

An array of two spark chambers and six trays of plastic scintillation counters was used to search for unaccompanied fractionally charged particles in cosmic rays near sea level. No acceptable events were found with energy losses by ionization between 0.04 and 0.7 that of unit-charged minimum-ionizing particles. New 90%-confidence upper limits were thereby established for the fluxes of fractionally charged particles in cosmic rays, namely, (1.04 ± 0.07)x10^-10 and (2.03 ± 0.16)x10^-10 cm^-2sr^-1sec^-1 for minimum-ionizing particles with charges 1/3 and 2/3, respectively.

In order to be certain that the spark chambers could have functioned for the low levels of ionization expected from particles with small fractional charges, tests were conducted to estimate the efficiency of the chambers as they had been used in this experiment. These tests showed that the spark-chamber system with the track-selection criteria used might have been over 99% efficient for the entire range of energy losses considered.

Lower limits were then obtained for the mass of a quark by considering the above flux limits and a particular model for the production of quarks in cosmic rays. In this model, which is one involving the multi-peripheral Regge hypothesis, the production cross section and a corresponding mass limit are critically dependent on the Regge trajectory assigned to a quark. If quarks are "elementary'' with a flat trajectory, the mass of a quark can be expected to be at least 6 ± 2 BeV/c². If quarks have a trajectory with unit slope, just as the existing hadrons do, the mass of a quark might be as small as 1.3 ± 0.2 BeV/c². For a trajectory with unit slope and a mass larger than a couple of BeV/c², the production cross section may be so low that quarks might never be observed in nature.

Studies of bacteriophage T4 tail fibers and tail fiber genes

The distal half of the bacteriophage T4 tail fiber interacts with the surface of the bacterium during adsorption. The largest polypeptide in this half fiber is the product of gene 37 (P37). During assembly of the tail fiber, P37 interacts with the product of gene 38 (P38). These two gene products are incompatible with the corresponding gene products from the related phage T2. T2 P37 does not interact with T4 P38 and T2 P38 does not interact with T4 P37. Crosses between T2 and T4 phages mutant in genes 37 and 38 have shown that the carboxyl end of P37 interacts with P38 and with the bacterial surface. In the corresponding region of gene 37 and in gene 38 there is no recombination between T2 and T4. In the rest of gene 37 there are two small regions with relatively high recombination and a region of low recombination.

When T2/T4 heteroduplex DNA molecules are examined in the electron microscope four nonhomologous loops appear in the region of genes 37 and 38. Heteroduplexes between hybrid phages which have part of gene 37 from T4 and part from T2 have roughly located gene 37 mutations in the heteroduplex pattern. For a more precise location of the , mutations a physical map of gene 37 was constructed by determining the molecular weights of amber polypeptide fragments on polyacrylamide gels in the presence of sodium dodecyl sulfate. When the physical and heteroduplex maps are aligned, the regions of low recombination correspond to regions of nonhomology between T2 and T4. Regions with relatively high recombination are homologous.

The molecular weight of T2 P37 is about 13,000 greater than that of T4 P37. Analysis of hybrid phage has shown that this molecular weight difference is all at the carboxyl end of P37.

An antiserum has been prepared which is specific for the distal half fiber of T4. Tests of the ability of gene 37 hybrids to block this antiserum show that there are at least 4 subclasses of antigen specified by different parts of P37.

Observations in the electron microscope of the tailfiber - anti- body complexes formed by the gene 37 hybrids and the specific anti- serum have shown that P37 is oriented linearly in the distal half fiber with its N-terminus near the joint between the two half fibers and its C-terminus near the tip of the fiber. These observations lead to a simple model for the structure of the distal half fiber.

The high recombination in T4 gene 34 was also investigated. A comparison of genetic and physical maps of gene 34 showed that there is a gradient of increasing recombination near one end of the gene.