Markov random fields and spatial smoothing in improving of forest inventory estimates

Markov random fields (MRF) are popular in image processing applications to describe spatial dependencies between image units. Here, we take a look at the theory and the models of MRFs with an application to improve forest inventory estimates. Typically, autocorrelation between study units is a nuisance in statistical inference, but we take an advantage of the dependencies to smooth noisy measurements by borrowing information from the neighbouring units. We build a stochastic spatial model, which we estimate with a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The smooth values are validated against another data set increasing our confidence that the estimates are more accurate than the originals.

Conditional Moments in Asset Pricing

A better understanding of stock price changes is important in guiding many economic activities. Since prices often do not change without good reasons, searching for related explanatory variables has involved many enthusiasts. This book seeks answers from prices per se by relating price changes to their conditional moments. This is based on the belief that prices are the products of a complex psychological and economic process and their conditional moments derive ultimately from these psychological and economic shocks. Utilizing information about conditional moments hence makes it an attractive alternative to using other selective financial variables in explaining price changes. The first paper examines the relation between the conditional mean and the conditional variance using information about moments in three types of conditional distributions; it finds that the significance of the estimated mean and variance ratio can be affected by the assumed distributions and the time variations in skewness. The second paper decomposes the conditional industry volatility into a concurrent market component and an industry specific component; it finds that market volatility is on average responsible for a rather small share of total industry volatility — 6 to 9 percent in UK and 2 to 3 percent in Germany. The third paper looks at the heteroskedasticity in stock returns through an ARCH process supplemented with a set of conditioning information variables; it finds that the heteroskedasticity in stock returns allows for several forms of heteroskedasticity that include deterministic changes in variances due to seasonal factors, random adjustments in variances due to market and macro factors, and ARCH processes with past information. The fourth paper examines the role of higher moments — especially skewness and kurtosis — in determining the expected returns; it finds that total skewness and total kurtosis are more relevant non-beta risk measures and that they are costly to be diversified due either to the possible eliminations of their desirable parts or to the unsustainability of diversification strategies based on them.

The Networks of Learning in Technological Innovation : The Emergence of Collaboration Across Fields of Expertise

This study addresses four issues concerning technological product innovations. First, the nature of the very early phases or "embryonic stages" of technological innovation is addressed. Second, this study analyzes why and by what means people initiate innovation processes outside the technological community and the field of expertise of the established industry. In other words, this study addresses the initiation of innovation that occurs without the expertise of established organizations, such as technology firms, professional societies and research institutes operating in the technological field under consideration. Third, the significance of interorganizational learning processes for technological innovation is dealt with. Fourth, this consideration is supplemented by considering how network collaboration and learning change when formalized product development work and the commercialization of innovation advance. These issues are addressed through the empirical analysis of the following three product innovations: Benecol margarine, the Nordic Mobile Telephone system (NMT) and the ProWellness Diabetes Management System (PDMS). This study utilizes the theoretical insights of cultural-historical activity theory on the development of human activities and learning. Activity-theoretical conceptualizations are used in the critical assessment and advancement of the concept of networks of learning. This concept was originally proposed by the research group of organizational scientist Walter Powell. A network of learning refers to the interorganizational collaboration that pools resources, ideas and know-how without market-based or hierarchical relations. The concept of an activity system is used in defining the nodes of the networks of learning. Network collaboration and learning are analyzed with regard to the shared object of development work. According to this study, enduring dilemmas and tensions in activity explain the participants' motives for carrying out actions that lead to novel product concepts in the early phases of technological innovation. These actions comprise the initiation of development work outside the relevant fields of expertise and collaboration and learning across fields of expertise in the absence of market-based or hierarchical relations. These networks of learning are fragile and impermanent. This study suggests that the significance of networks of learning across fields of expertise becomes more and more crucial for innovation activities.

Novel conditional mouse models for targeted kidney research : Emphasis on the analysis of the biological function of nephrin

Nephrin is a transmembrane protein belonging to the immunoglobulin superfamily and is expressed primarily in the podocytes, which are highly differentiated epithelial cells needed for primary urine formation in the kidney. Mutations leading to nephrin loss abrogate podocyte morphology, and result in massive protein loss into urine and consequent early death in humans carrying specific mutations in this gene. The disease phenotype is closely replicated in respective mouse models. The purpose of this thesis was to generate novel inducible mouse-lines, which allow targeted gene deletion in a time and tissue-specific manner. A proof of principle model for succesful gene therapy for this disease was generated, which allowed podocyte specific transgene replacement to rescue gene deficient mice from perinatal lethality. Furthermore, the phenotypic consequences of nephrin restoration in the kidney and nephrin deficiency in the testis, brain and pancreas in rescued mice were investigated. A novel podocyte-specific construct was achieved by using standard cloning techniques to provide an inducible tool for in vitro and in vivo gene targeting. Using modified constructs and microinjection procedures two novel transgenic mouse-lines were generated. First, a mouse-line with doxycycline inducible expression of Cre recombinase that allows podocyte-specific gene deletion was generated. Second, a mouse-line with doxycycline inducible expression of rat nephrin, which allows podocyte-specific nephrin over-expression was made. Furthermore, it was possible to rescue nephrin deficient mice from perinatal lethality by cross-breeding them with a mouse-line with inducible rat nephrin expression that restored the missing endogenous nephrin only in the kidney after doxycycline treatment. The rescued mice were smaller, infertile, showed genital malformations and developed distinct histological abnormalities in the kidney with an altered molecular composition of the podocytes. Histological changes were also found in the testis, cerebellum and pancreas. The expression of another molecule with limited tissue expression, densin, was localized to the plasma membranes of Sertoli cells in the testis by immunofluorescence staining. Densin may be an essential adherens junction protein between Sertoli cells and developing germ cells and these junctions share similar protein assembly with kidney podocytes. This single, binary conditional construct serves as a cost- and time-efficient tool to increase the understanding of podocyte-specific key proteins in health and disease. The results verified a tightly controlled inducible podocyte-specific transgene expression in vitro and in vivo as expected. These novel mouse-lines with doxycycline inducible Cre recombinase and with rat nephrin expression will be useful for conditional gene targeting of essential podocyte proteins and to study in detail their functions in the adult mice. This is important for future diagnostic and pharmacologic development platforms.

Beasts on Fields. Human-Wildlife Conflicts in Nature-Culture Borderlands

Human-wildlife conflicts are today an integral part of the rural development discourse. In this research, the main focus is on the spatial explanation which is not a very common approach in the reviewed literature. My research hypothesis is based on the assumption that human-wildlife conflicts occur when a wild animal crosses a perceived borderline between the nature and culture and enters into the realms of the other. The borderline between nature and culture marks a perceived division of spatial content in our senses of place. The animal subject that crosses this border becomes a subject out of place meaning that the animal is then spatially located in a space where it should not be or where it does not belong according to tradition, custom, rules, law, public opinion, prevailing discourse or some other criteria set by human beings. An appearance of a wild animal in a domesticated space brings an uncontrolled subject into that space where humans have previously commanded total control of all other natural elements. A wild animal out of place may also threaten the biosecurity of the place in question. I carried out a case study in the Liwale district in south-eastern Tanzania to test my hypothesis during June and July 2002. I also collected documents and carried out interviews in Dar es Salaam in 2003. I studied the human-wildlife conflicts in six rural villages, where a total of 183 persons participated in the village meetings. My research methods included semi-structured interviews, participatory mapping, questionnaire survey and Q- methodology. The rural communities in the Liwale district have a long-history of co-existing with wildlife and they still have traditional knowledge of wildlife management and hunting. Wildlife conservation through the establishment of game reserves during the colonial era has escalated human-wildlife conflicts in the Liwale district. This study shows that the villagers perceive some wild animals differently in their images of the African countryside than the district and regional level civil servants do. From the small scale subsistence farmers point of views, wild animals continue to challenge the separation of the wild (the forests) and the domestics spaces (the cultivated fields) by moving across the perceived borders in search of food and shelter. As a result, the farmers may loose their crops, livestock or even their own lives in the confrontations of wild animals. Human-wildlife conflicts in the Liwale district are manifold and cannot be explained simply on the basis of attitudes or perceived images of landscapes. However, the spatial explanation of these conflicts provides us some more understanding of why human-wildlife conflicts are so widely found across the world.

Conformal Field Theory Methods for Variants of Schramm-Loewner Evolutions

This thesis consists of an introduction, four research articles and an appendix. The thesis studies relations between two different approaches to continuum limit of models of two dimensional statistical mechanics at criticality. The approach of conformal field theory (CFT) could be thought of as the algebraic classification of some basic objects in these models. It has been succesfully used by physicists since 1980's. The other approach, Schramm-Loewner evolutions (SLEs), is a recently introduced set of mathematical methods to study random curves or interfaces occurring in the continuum limit of the models. The first and second included articles argue on basis of statistical mechanics what would be a plausible relation between SLEs and conformal field theory. The first article studies multiple SLEs, several random curves simultaneously in a domain. The proposed definition is compatible with a natural commutation requirement suggested by Dubédat. The curves of multiple SLE may form different topological configurations, ``pure geometries''. We conjecture a relation between the topological configurations and CFT concepts of conformal blocks and operator product expansions. Example applications of multiple SLEs include crossing probabilities for percolation and Ising model. The second article studies SLE variants that represent models with boundary conditions implemented by primary fields. The most well known of these, SLE(kappa, rho), is shown to be simple in terms of the Coulomb gas formalism of CFT. In the third article the space of local martingales for variants of SLE is shown to carry a representation of Virasoro algebra. Finding this structure is guided by the relation of SLEs and CFTs in general, but the result is established in a straightforward fashion. This article, too, emphasizes multiple SLEs and proposes a possible way of treating pure geometries in terms of Coulomb gas. The fourth article states results of applications of the Virasoro structure to the open questions of SLE reversibility and duality. Proofs of the stated results are provided in the appendix. The objective is an indirect computation of certain polynomial expected values. Provided that these expected values exist, in generic cases they are shown to possess the desired properties, thus giving support for both reversibility and duality.

On Random Planar Curves and Their Scaling Limits

Planar curves arise naturally as interfaces between two regions of the plane. An important part of statistical physics is the study of lattice models. This thesis is about the interfaces of 2D lattice models. The scaling limit is an infinite system limit which is taken by letting the lattice mesh decrease to zero. At criticality, the scaling limit of an interface is one of the SLE curves (Schramm-Loewner evolution), introduced by Oded Schramm. This family of random curves is parametrized by a real variable, which determines the universality class of the model. The first and the second paper of this thesis study properties of SLEs. They contain two different methods to study the whole SLE curve, which is, in fact, the most interesting object from the statistical physics point of view. These methods are applied to study two symmetries of SLE: reversibility and duality. The first paper uses an algebraic method and a representation of the Virasoro algebra to find common martingales to different processes, and that way, to confirm the symmetries for polynomial expected values of natural SLE data. In the second paper, a recursion is obtained for the same kind of expected values. The recursion is based on stationarity of the law of the whole SLE curve under a SLE induced flow. The third paper deals with one of the most central questions of the field and provides a framework of estimates for describing 2D scaling limits by SLE curves. In particular, it is shown that a weak estimate on the probability of an annulus crossing implies that a random curve arising from a statistical physics model will have scaling limits and those will be well-described by Loewner evolutions with random driving forces.

Direct and Inverse Scattering for Beltrami Fields

We consider an obstacle scattering problem for linear Beltrami fields. A vector field is a linear Beltrami field if the curl of the field is a constant times itself. We study the obstacles that are of Neumann type, that is, the normal component of the total field vanishes on the boundary of the obstacle. We prove the unique solvability for the corresponding exterior boundary value problem, in other words, the direct obstacle scattering model. For the inverse obstacle scattering problem, we deduce the formulas that are needed to apply the singular sources method. The numerical examples are computed for the direct scattering problem and for the inverse scattering problem.

Modeling Asymmetries in Financial Data with Multiplicative Error Models

This thesis addresses modeling of financial time series, especially stock market returns and daily price ranges. Modeling data of this kind can be approached with so-called multiplicative error models (MEM). These models nest several well known time series models such as GARCH, ACD and CARR models. They are able to capture many well established features of financial time series including volatility clustering and leptokurtosis. In contrast to these phenomena, different kinds of asymmetries have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In this thesis asymmetries arise from various sources. They are observed in both conditional and unconditional distributions, for variables with non-negative values and for variables that have values on the real line. In the multivariate context asymmetries can be observed in the marginal distributions as well as in the relationships of the variables modeled. New methods for all these cases are proposed. Chapter 2 considers GARCH models and modeling of returns of two stock market indices. The chapter introduces the so-called generalized hyperbolic (GH) GARCH model to account for asymmetries in both conditional and unconditional distribution. In particular, two special cases of the GARCH-GH model which describe the data most accurately are proposed. They are found to improve the fit of the model when compared to symmetric GARCH models. The advantages of accounting for asymmetries are also observed through Value-at-Risk applications. Both theoretical and empirical contributions are provided in Chapter 3 of the thesis. In this chapter the so-called mixture conditional autoregressive range (MCARR) model is introduced, examined and applied to daily price ranges of the Hang Seng Index. The conditions for the strict and weak stationarity of the model as well as an expression for the autocorrelation function are obtained by writing the MCARR model as a first order autoregressive process with random coefficients. The chapter also introduces inverse gamma (IG) distribution to CARR models. The advantages of CARR-IG and MCARR-IG specifications over conventional CARR models are found in the empirical application both in- and out-of-sample. Chapter 4 discusses the simultaneous modeling of absolute returns and daily price ranges. In this part of the thesis a vector multiplicative error model (VMEM) with asymmetric Gumbel copula is found to provide substantial benefits over the existing VMEM models based on elliptical copulas. The proposed specification is able to capture the highly asymmetric dependence of the modeled variables thereby improving the performance of the model considerably. The economic significance of the results obtained is established when the information content of the volatility forecasts derived is examined.

On gravitational fields of stars in f(R) gravity theories

Einstein's general relativity is a classical theory of gravitation: it is a postulate on the coupling between the four-dimensional, continuos spacetime and the matter fields in the universe, and it yields their dynamical evolution. It is believed that general relativity must be replaced by a quantum theory of gravity at least at extremely high energies of the early universe and at regions of strong curvature of spacetime, cf. black holes. Various attempts to quantize gravity, including conceptually new models such as string theory, have suggested that modification to general relativity might show up even at lower energy scales. On the other hand, also the late time acceleration of the expansion of the universe, known as the dark energy problem, might originate from new gravitational physics. Thus, although there has been no direct experimental evidence contradicting general relativity so far - on the contrary, it has passed a variety of observational tests - it is a question worth asking, why should the effective theory of gravity be of the exact form of general relativity? If general relativity is modified, how do the predictions of the theory change? Furthermore, how far can we go with the changes before we are face with contradictions with the experiments? Along with the changes, could there be new phenomena, which we could measure to find hints of the form of the quantum theory of gravity? This thesis is on a class of modified gravity theories called f(R) models, and in particular on the effects of changing the theory of gravity on stellar solutions. It is discussed how experimental constraints from the measurements in the Solar System restrict the form of f(R) theories. Moreover, it is shown that models, which do not differ from general relativity at the weak field scale of the Solar System, can produce very different predictions for dense stars like neutron stars. Due to the nature of f(R) models, the role of independent connection of the spacetime is emphasized throughout the thesis.

Rolling tachyons, random matrices, and Coulomb gas thermodynamics

Time-dependent backgrounds in string theory provide a natural testing ground for physics concerning dynamical phenomena which cannot be reliably addressed in usual quantum field theories and cosmology. A good, tractable example to study is the rolling tachyon background, which describes the decay of an unstable brane in bosonic and supersymmetric Type II string theories. In this thesis I use boundary conformal field theory along with random matrix theory and Coulomb gas thermodynamics techniques to study open and closed string scattering amplitudes off the decaying brane. The calculation of the simplest example, the tree-level amplitude of n open strings, would give us the emission rate of the open strings. However, even this has been unknown. I will organize the open string scattering computations in a more coherent manner and will argue how to make further progress.