Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

On Musical Self-Similarity : Intersemiosis as Synecdoche and Analogy

Self-similarity, a concept taken from mathematics, is gradually becoming a keyword in musicology. Although a polysemic term, self-similarity often refers to the multi-scalar feature repetition in a set of relationships, and it is commonly valued as an indication for musical coherence and consistency . This investigation provides a theory of musical meaning formation in the context of intersemiosis, that is, the translation of meaning from one cognitive domain to another cognitive domain (e.g. from mathematics to music, or to speech or graphic forms). From this perspective, the degree of coherence of a musical system relies on a synecdochic intersemiosis: a system of related signs within other comparable and correlated systems. This research analyzes the modalities of such correlations, exploring their general and particular traits, and their operational bounds. Looking forward in this direction, the notion of analogy is used as a rich concept through its two definitions quoted by the Classical literature: proportion and paradigm, enormously valuable in establishing measurement, likeness and affinity criteria. Using quantitative qualitative methods, evidence is presented to justify a parallel study of different modalities of musical self-similarity. For this purpose, original arguments by Benoît B. Mandelbrot are revised, alongside a systematic critique of the literature on the subject. Furthermore, connecting Charles S. Peirce s synechism with Mandelbrot s fractality is one of the main developments of the present study. This study provides elements for explaining Bolognesi s (1983) conjecture, that states that the most primitive, intuitive and basic musical device is self-reference, extending its functions and operations to self-similar surfaces. In this sense, this research suggests that, with various modalities of self-similarity, synecdochic intersemiosis acts as system of systems in coordination with greater or lesser development of structural consistency, and with a greater or lesser contextual dependence.

Coordinated Verb Pairs in Texts

This dissertation discusses the relation between lexis, grammar and textual organisation. The major premise adopted here is that grammatical structures are motivated both by semantic potential of words and by text-pragmatic demands. In other words, it is argued that grammatical structures form the interface between lexis and textual organisation, and that linguistic analysis should not concentrate on analysing grammatical structures in isolation, independent of context. From this point of view, grammatical structures are said to be 'well-formed' only in relation to the context they occur in. This study is based on a corpus of three million words of recent Finnish fiction from which all the occurrences of the coordinated verb pairs ([V ja V] -pairs]) containing one of the intransitive motion verbs 'lähteä' (to go), 'mennä' (to go), 'päästä' (to get into), 'nousta' (to get up), and 'laskea' (to go down), were extracted. This set of verbs was established using methods described in earlier work by Lagus & Airola (2001, and 2005). The quantitative analysis of the [V ja V] -pairs was used to carry out a qualitative analysis of individual texts. In analysing the texts, an analogy was made between musical and textual structure. The results show among others that individual verbs specialise in different functions when occurring in coordinated verb pairs. One aspect was that those verb pairs including the verb 'nousta' tend to function as markers of textual boundaries and thus reflect the organisation of narrative substance. The verb 'mennä' has weakened literal meanings, but strengthened modal meanings when occurring in [V ja V] -pairs, and, in many cases, the verb 'lähteä' in [V ja V] -pairs function as an aspectual marker rather than a pure verb of motion. That there is a gradient from the concrete sense of motion into more differentiated senses of a verb in [V ja V] -pairs alongside the structure-creating potential of the [V ja V] -pairs themselves suggest an ongoing grammaticalisation process of the patterns discussed.

Self-love and self-liking in the moral and political philosophy of Bernard Mandeville and David Hume

This work offers a novel interpretation of David Hume’s (1711–1776) conception of the conjectural development of civil society and artificial moral institutions. It focuses on the social elements of Hume’s Treatise of human nature (1739–40) and the necessary connection between science of man and politeness, civilised monarchies, social distance and hierarchical structure of civil society. The study incorporates aspects of intellectual history, history of philosophy and book history. In order to understand David Hume’s thinking, the intellectual development of Bernard Mandeville (1670–1733) needs to be accounted for. When put into a historical perspective, the moral, political and social components of Treatise of human nature can be read in the context of a philosophical tradition, in which Mandeville plays a pivotal role. A distinctive character of Mandeville and Hume’s account of human nature and moral institutions was the introduction of a simple distinction between self-love and self-liking. The symmetric passions of self-interest and pride can only be controlled by the corresponding moral institutions. This is also the way in which we can say that moral institutions are drawn from human nature. In the case of self-love or self-interest, the corresponding moral institution is justice. Respectively, concerning self-liking or pride the moral institution is politeness. There is an explicit analogy between these moral institutions. If we do not understand this analogy, we do not understand the nature of either justice or politeness. The present work is divided into two parts. In the first part, ‘Intellectual development of Bernard Mandeville’, it is argued that the relevance of the paradigmatic change in Mandeville’s thinking has been missed. It draws a picture of Mandeville turning from the Hobbism of The Fable of the Bees to an original theory of civil society put forward in his later works. In order to make this change more apparent, Mandeville’s career and the publishing history of The Fable of the Bees are examined comprehensively. This interpretation, based partly on previously unknown sources, challenges F. B. Kaye’s influential decision to publish the two parts of The Fable of the Bees as a uniform work of two volumes. The main relevance, however, of the ‘Intellectual development of Mandeville’ is to function as the context for the young Hume. The second part of the work, ‘David Hume and Greatness of mind’, explores in philosophical detail the social theory of the Treatise and politics and the science of man in his Essays. This part will also reveal the relevance of Greatness of mind as a general concept for David Hume’s moral and political philosophy.

On Toponymic Constructions as an Alternative to Naming Patterns in Describing Finnish Lake Names

This thesis combines a computational analysis of a comprehensive corpus of Finnish lake names with a theoretical background in cognitive linguistics. The combination results on the one hand in a description of the toponymic system and the processes involved in analogy-based naming and on the other hand some adjustments to Construction Grammar. Finnish lake names are suitable for this kind of study, as they are to a large extent semantically transparent even when relatively old. There is also a large number of them, and they are comprehensively collected in a computer database. The current work starts with an exploratory computational analysis of co-location patterns between different lake names. Such an analysis makes it possible to assess the importance of analogy and patterns in naming. Prior research has suggested that analogy plays an important role, often also in cases where there are other motivations for the name, and the current study confirms this. However, it also appears that naming patterns are very fuzzy and that their nature is somewhat hard to define in an essentially structuralist tradition. In describing toponymic structure and the processes involved in naming, cognitive linguistics presents itself as a promising theoretical basis. The descriptive formalism of Construction Grammar seems especially well suited for the task. However, now productivity becomes a problem: it is not nearly as clear-cut as the latter theory often assumes, and this is even more apparent in names than in more traditional linguistic material. The varying degree of productivity is most naturally described by a prototype-based theory. Such an approach, however, requires some adjustments to onstruction Grammar. Based on all this, the thesis proposes a descriptive model where a new name -- or more generally, a new linguistic expression -- can be formed by conceptual integration from either a single prior example or a construction generalised from a number of different prior ones. The new model accounts nicely for various aspects of naming that are problematic for the traditional description based on analogy and patterns.

Scheffleriläinen rationaalisuus ja kasvatustodellisuuden monikerroksisuus : Jännitteitä ja ratkaisuja Israel Schefflerin kasvatusfilosofiassa

The study is a philosophical analysis of Israel Scheffler’s philosophy of education, focusing on three crucial conceptions in his philosophy: the conception of rationality, the conception of human nature, and the conception of reality. The interrelations of these three concepts as well as their relations to educational theorizing are analysed and elaborated. A conceptual problem concerning Scheffler’s ideal of rationality derives from Scheffler’s supposition of the strong analogy between science education and moral education in terms of the ideal of rationality. This analogy is argued to be conceptually problematic, since the interconnections of rationality, objectivity, and truth, appear to differ from each other in the realms of ethics and science, given the presuppositions of ontological realism and ethical naturalism, to which Scheffler explicitly subscribes. This study considers two philosophical alternatives for solving this problem. The first alternative relates the analogy to the normative concept of personhood deriving from the teleological understanding of human nature. Nevertheless, this position turns out to be problematic for Scheffler, since he rejects all teleological thinking in his philosophy. The problem can be solved, as it is argued, by limiting Scheffler’s rejection of teleology – in light of his philosophical outlook on the whole – in a manner that allows a modest version of a teleological conception of human nature. The second alternative, based especially on Scheffler’s later contributions, is to suggest that reality is actually more complex and manifold than it appears to be in light of a contemporary naturalist worldview. This idea of plurealism – Scheffler’s synthesis of pluralism and realism – is represented especially in Scheffler’s contributions related to his debate with Nelson Goodman dealing with both constructivism and realism. The idea of plurealism is not only related to the ethics-science-distinction, but is more widely related to the relationship between ontological realism and the incommensurable systems of description in diverse realms of human understanding. The Scheffler-Goodman debate is also analysed in relation to the contemporary constructivism-realism debate in educational philosophy. In terms of educational questions, Scheffler’s plurealism is argued as offering a fruitful perspective. Scheffler’s philosophy of education can be interpreted as searching for solutions to the problems deriving from the tension between the tradition of analytical philosophy and the complexity and multiplicity of educational reality. The complexity of reality combined with the supposition of the limitedness of human knowledge does not lead Scheffler to relativism or particularism, but, in contrast, Schefflerian formulations of rationality and objectivity preserve the possibility for critical inquiry in all realms of educational reality. In light of this study, Scheffler’s philosophy of education provides an exceptional example of combining ontological realism, epistemological fallibilism, and the defence of the ideal of rationality, combined with a wide-ranging understanding of educational reality.

Teacher Education, School Effectiveness and Improvement : A Study of Academic and Professional Qualification on Teachers' Job Effectiveness in Nigerian Secondary Schools

This academic work begins with a compact presentation of the general background to the study, which also includes an autobiography for the interest in this research. The presentation provides readers who know little of the topic of this research and of the structure of the educational system as well as of the value given to education in Nigeria. It further concentrates on the dynamic interplay of the effect of academic and professional qualification and teachers' job effectiveness in secondary schools in Nigeria in particular, and in Africa in general. The aim of this study is to produce a systematic analysis and rich theoretical and empirical description of teachers' teaching competencies. The theoretical part comprises a comprehensive literature review that focuses on research conducted in the areas of academic and professional qualification and teachers' job effectiveness, teaching competencies, and the role of teacher education with particular emphasis on school effectiveness and improvement. This research benefits greatly from the functionalist conception of education, which is built upon two emphases: the application of the scientific method to the objective social world, and the use of an analogy between the individual 'organism' and 'society'. To this end, it offers us an opportunity to define terms systematically and to view problems as always being interrelated with other components of society. The empirical part involves describing and interpreting what educational objectives can be achieved with the help of teachers' teaching competencies in close connection to educational planning, teacher training and development, and achieving them without waste. The data used in this study were collected between 2002 and 2003 from teachers, principals, supervisors of education from the Ministry of Education and Post Primary Schools Board in the Rivers State of Nigeria (N=300). The data were collected from interviews, documents, observation, and questionnaires and were analyzed using both qualitative and quantitative methods to strengthen the validity of the findings. The data collected were analyzed to answer the specific research questions and hypotheses posited in this study. The data analysis involved the use of multiple statistical procedures: Percentages Mean Point Value, T-test of Significance, One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and Cross Tabulation. The results obtained from the data analysis show that teachers require professional knowledge and professional teaching skills, as well as a broad base of general knowledge (e.g., morality, service, cultural capital, institutional survey). Above all, in order to carry out instructional processes effectively, teachers should be both academically and professionally trained. This study revealed that teachers are not however expected to have an extraordinary memory, but rather looked upon as persons capable of thinking in the right direction. This study may provide a solution to the problem of teacher education and school effectiveness in Nigeria. For this reason, I offer this treatise to anyone seriously committed in improving schools in developing countries in general and in Nigeria in particular to improve the lives of all its citizens. In particular, I write this to encourage educational planners, education policy makers, curriculum developers, principals, teachers, and students of education interested in empirical information and methods to conceptualize the issue this study has raised and to provide them with useful suggestions to help them improve secondary schooling in Nigeria. Though, multiple audiences exist for any text. For this reason, I trust that the academic community will find this piece of work a useful addition to the existing literature on school effectiveness and school improvement. Through integrating concepts from a number of disciplines, I aim to describe as holistic a representation as space could allow of the components of school effectiveness and quality improvement. A new perspective on teachers' professional competencies, which not only take into consideration the unique characteristics of the variables used in this study, but also recommend their environmental and cultural derivation. In addition, researchers should focus their attention on the ways in which both professional and non-professional teachers construct and apply their methodological competencies, such as their grouping procedures and behaviors to the schooling of students. Keywords: Professional Training, Academic Training, Professionally Qualified, Academically Qualified, Professional Qualification, Academic Qualification, Job Effectiveness, Job Efficiency, Educational Planning, Teacher Training and Development, Nigeria.

Aritmetiikasta algebraan : Muutoksia osaamisessa peruskoulun päättöluokalla 20 vuoden aikana

From Arithmetic to Algebra. Changes in the skills in comprehensive school over 20 years. In recent decades we have emphasized the understanding of calculation in mathematics teaching. Many studies have found that better understanding helps to apply skills in new conditions and that the ability to think on an abstract level increases the transfer to new contexts. In my research I take into consideration competence as a matrix where content is in a horizontal line and levels of thinking are in a vertical line. The know-how is intellectual and strategic flexibility and understanding. The resources and limitations of memory have their effects on learning in different ways in different phases. Therefore both flexible conceptual thinking and automatization must be considered in learning. The research questions that I examine are what kind of changes have occurred in mathematical skills in comprehensive school over the last 20 years and what kind of conceptual thinking is demonstrated by students in this decade. The study consists of two parts. The first part is a statistical analysis of the mathematical skills and their changes over the last 20 years in comprehensive school. In the test the pupils did not use calculators. The second part is a qualitative analysis of the conceptual thinking of pupils in comprehensive school in this decade. The study shows significant differences in algebra and in some parts of arithmetic. The largest differences were detected in the calculation skills of fractions. In the 1980s two out of three pupils were able to complete tasks with fractions, but in the 2000s only one out of three pupils were able to do the same tasks. Also remarkable is that out of the students who could complete the tasks with fractions, only one out of three pupils was on the conceptual level in his/her thinking. This means that about 10% of pupils are able to understand the algebraic expression, which has the same isomorphic structure as the arithmetical expression. This finding is important because the ability to think innovatively is created when learning the basic concepts. Keywords: arithmetic, algebra, competence