Studies on the international effects of real shocks

This doctoral thesis addresses the macroeconomic effects of real shocks in open economies in flexible exchange rate regimes. The first study of this thesis analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the `pure waste' case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. The second study of this thesis analyses the question of how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on optimal intertemporal behaviour. The key result is that the effects of fiscal policy depend on the size of the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. In particular, the sign of the current account response to fiscal policy depends on the interplay between the intertemporal elasticity of aggregate consumption and the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. The third study analyses the consequences of productive government spending on the international transmission of fiscal policy. A standard result in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature is that a fiscal shock depreciates the exchange rate. I demonstrate that the response of the exchange rate depends on the productivity of government spending. If productivity is sufficiently high, a fiscal shock appreciates the exchange rate. It is also shown that the introduction of productive government spending increases both domestic and foreign welfare, when compared with the case where government spending is wasted. The fourth study analyses the question of how the international transmission of technology shocks depends on the specification of nominal rigidities. A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that a positive technology shock leads to a temporary decline in employment. In this study, I demonstrate that the open economy dimension can enhance the ability of sticky price models to account for the evidence. The reasoning is as follows. An improvement in technology appreciates the nominal exchange rate. Under producer-currency pricing, the exchange rate appreciation shifts global demand toward foreign goods away from domestic goods. This causes a temporary decline in domestic employment.

Aspiration-based utility functions in a planning model for timber flow management.

The study presents a theory of utility models based on aspiration levels, as well as the application of this theory to the planning of timber flow economics. The first part of the study comprises a derivation of the utility-theoretic basis for the application of aspiration levels. Two basic models are dealt with: the additive and the multiplicative. Applied here solely for partial utility functions, aspiration and reservation levels are interpreted as defining piecewisely linear functions. The standpoint of the choices of the decision-maker is emphasized by the use of indifference curves. The second part of the study introduces a model for the management of timber flows. The model is based on the assumption that the decision-maker is willing to specify a shape of income flow which is different from that of the capital-theoretic optimum. The utility model comprises four aspiration-based compound utility functions. The theory and the flow model are tested numerically by computations covering three forest holdings. The results show that the additive model is sensitive even to slight changes in relative importances and aspiration levels. This applies particularly to nearly linear production possibility boundaries of monetary variables. The multiplicative model, on the other hand, is stable because it generates strictly convex indifference curves. Due to a higher marginal rate of substitution, the multiplicative model implies a stronger dependence on forest management than the additive function. For income trajectory optimization, a method utilizing an income trajectory index is more efficient than one based on the use of aspiration levels per management period. Smooth trajectories can be attained by squaring the deviations of the feasible trajectories from the desired one.

Vyra enie obob čёnno-ličnogo značenija v russkom jazyke

Expressing generalized-personal meaning in Russian Based on data from Russian, this doctoral dissertation examines generalized-personal meaning that is, generic expressions referring to all human beings, people in general, each or any person (e.g. S vozrastom načinae cenit prostye ve či With age you start to appreciate simple things ). The study shares its basic theoretical orientation with functional approaches going from meaning to form . The objective of the thesis is to determine and describe the various linguistic means which can be used by the speaker to express generalized-personal meaning. The main material of the study consists of 2,000 examples collected from modern Russian literature, newspapers, and magazines. The linguistic means of expressing generalized-personal meaning are divided into three main classes. Morphological and lexico-grammatical means (22% of the material) include the use of personal pronouns and personal verbal endings. In Russian, all personal forms except the 3rd person singular can be used in a generalized-personal meaning. Lexical means (14% of the material) involve, above all, pronouns like vse all , ka dyj everyone , nikto no one , as well as the nouns čelovek man and ljudi people . In emotional speech, generalized-personal meaning can also be conveyed lexically by using utterances like da e idiot znaet even an idiot knows . In rhetorical questions the pronoun kto who can appear in this meaning (cf. Kto ne ljubit moro enoe?! Who doesn t like ice cream?! ). The third main class, syntactic means (64% of the material), consists of constructions in which the generic person is not expressed at the surface level. This class mainly includes two-component structures in which the infinitive relates to a modal predicative adverb (e.g. mo no can, be allowed to , nado must ), modal verb (e.g. stoit be worth(while) , sleduet must, be obliged to ), or predicative adverb ending in -о (e.g. trudno it is hard to , neprilično is not appropriate ). Other syntactic means are: one-component infinitive structures, so-called embedded structures, structures with a processual noun, passive constructions, and gerund constructions. The different forms of expression available in Russian are not interchangeable in all contexts. Even if a given context tolerates the substitution of one construction for another, the two expressions are never entirely synonymous. In addition to determining the range of forms which can express generalized-personal meaning, the study aims to compare these forms and to specify the conditions and possible restrictions (contextual, semantic, syntactic, stylistic, etc.) associated with the use of each construction. In Russian linguistics, the generalized-personal meaning has not been extensively studied from a functional perspective. The advantage of a meaning-based functional approach is that it gives a comprehensive picture of the diversity and distribution of the phenomenon.

Aikakauslehtipapereiden pitkän aikavälin kulutus Yhdysvalloissa

The United States is the world s single biggest market area, where the demand for graphic papers has increased by 80 % during the last three decades. However, during the last two decades there have been very big unpredictable changes in the graphic paper markets. For example, the consumption of newsprint started to decline from the late 1980 s, which was surprising compared to the historical consumption and projections. The consumption has declined since. The aim of this study was to see how magazine paper consumption will develop in the United States until 2030. The long-term consumption projection was made using mainly two methods. The first method was to use trend analysis to see how and if the consumption has changed since 1980. The second method was to use qualitative estimate. These estimates are then compared to the so-called classical model projections, which are usually mentioned and used in forestry literature. The purpose of the qualitative analysis is to study magazine paper end-use purposes and to analyze how and with what intensity the changes in society will effect to magazine paper consumption in the long-term. The framework of this study covers theories such as technology adaptation, electronic substitution, electronic publishing and Porter s threat of substitution. Because this study deals with markets, which have showed signs of structural change, a very substantial part of this study covers recent development and newest possible studies and statistics. The following were among the key findings of this study. Different end-uses have very different kinds of future. Electronic substitution is very likely in some end-use purposes, but not in all. Young people i.e. future consumers have very different manners, habits and technological opportunities than our parents did. These will have substantial effects in magazine paper consumption in the long-term. This study concludes to the fact that the change in magazine paper consumption is more likely to be gradual (evolutionary) than sudden collapse (revolutionary). It is also probable that the years of fast growing consumption of magazine papers are behind. Besides the decelerated growth, the consumption of magazine papers will decline slowly in the long-term. The decline will be faster depending on how far in the future we ll extend the study to.

Energiapuuharvennus osana metsänkasvatusta ja ilmastonmuutoksen hillitsemistä

The aim of this study was to compare the differences between forest management incorporating energy wood thinning and forest management based on silvicultural recommendations (baseline). Energy wood thinning was substituted for young stand thinning and the first commercial thinning of industrial wood. The study was based on the forest stand data from Southern Finland, which were simulated by the MOTTI-simulator. The main interest was to find out the climatic benefits resulting from carbon sequestration and energy substitution. The value of energy wood was set to substitute it for coal as an alternative energy fuel (emission trade). Other political instruments (Kemera subsidies) were also analysed. The largest carbon dioxide emission reductions were achieved as a combination of carbon sequestration and energy substitution (on average, a 26-90 % increase in discounted present value in the beginning of rotation) compared to the baseline. Energy substitution increased emission reductions more effectively than carbon sequestration, when maintaining dense young stands. According to the study, energy wood thinning as a part of forest management was more profitable than the baseline when the value of carbon dioxide averaged more than 15 €/CO2 and other political subsidies were unchanged. Alternatively, the price of energy wood should on average exceed 21 €/m3 on the roadside in order to be profitable in the absence of political instruments. The most cost-efficient employment of energy wood thinning occured when the dominant height was 12 meters, when energy substitution was taken into account. According to alternative forest management, thinning of sapling stands could be done earlier or less intensely than thinning based on silvicultural recommendations and the present criteria of subsidies. Consequently, the first commercial thinning could be profitable to carry out either as harvesting of industrial wood or energy wood, or as integrated harvesting depending on the costs of the harvesting methods available and the price level of small-size industrial wood compared to energy wood.

Mannans as film formers and emulsion stabilizers

Mannans are abundant plant polysaccharides found in the endosperm of certain leguminous seeds (guar gum galactomannan, GG; locust bean gum galactomannan, LBG), in the tuber of the konjac plant (konjac glucomannan, KGM), and in softwoods (galactoglucomannan, GGM). This study focused on the effects of the chemical structure of mannans on their film-forming and emulsion-stabilizing properties. Special focus was on spruce GGM, which is an interesting new product from forest biorefineries. A plasticizer was needed for the formation of films from mannans other than KGM and the optimal proportion was 40% (w/w of polymers) glycerol or sorbitol. Galactomannans with lower galactose content (LBG, modified GG) produced films with higher elongation at break and tensile strength. The mechanical properties of GG-based films were improved by decreasing the degree of polymerization of the polysaccharide with moderate mannanase treatments. The improvement of mechanical properties of GGM-based films was sought by blending GGM with each of poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVOH), corn arabinoxylan (cAX), and KGM. Adding other polymers increased the elongation at break of GGM blend films. The tensile strength of films increased with increasing amounts of PVOH and KGM, but the effect of cAX was the opposite. Dynamic mechanical analysis showed two separate loss modulus peaks for blends of GGM and PVOH, but a single peak for all other films. Optical and scanning electron microscopy confirmed good miscibility of GGM with cAX and KGM. In contrast, films blended from GGM and PVOH showed phase separation. GGM and KGM were mixed with cellulose nanowhiskers (CNW) to form composite films. Addition of CNW to KGM-based films induced the formation of fiberlike structures with lengths of several millimeters. In GGM-based films, rodlike structures with lengths of tens of micrometers were formed. Interestingly, the notable differences in the film structure did not appear to be related to the mechanical and thermal properties of the films. Permeability properties of GGM-based films were compared to those of films from commercial mannans KGM, GG, and LBG. GGM-based films had the lowest water vapor permeability when compared to films from other mannans. The oxygen permeability of GGM films was of the same magnitude as that of commercial polyethylene / ethylene vinyl alcohol / polyethylene laminate film. The aroma permeability of GGM films was low. All films were transparent in the visible region, but GGM films blocked the light transmission in the ultraviolet region of the spectra. The stabilizing effect of GGM on a model beverage emulsion system was studied and compared to that of GG, LBG, KGM, and cAX. In addition, GG was enzymatically modified in order to examine the effect of the degree of polymerization and the degree of substitution of galactomannans on emulsion stability. Use of GGM increased the turbidity of emulsions both immediately after preparation and after storage of up to 14 days at room temperature. GGM emulsions had higher turbidity than the emulsions containing other mannans. Increasing the storage temperature to +45 ºC led to rapid emulsion breakdown, but a decrease in storage temperature increased emulsion stability after 14 days. A low degree of polymerization and a high degree of substitution of the modified galactomannans were associated with a decrease in emulsion turbidity.

Preparation, structural analysis and prebiotic potential of arabinoxylo-oligosaccharides

Arabinoxylo-oligosaccharides (AXOS) can be prepared enzymatically from arabinoxylans (AX) and AXOS are known to possess prebiotic potential. Here the structural features of 10 cereal AX were examined. AX were hydrolysed by Shearzyme® to prepare AXOS, and their structures were fully analysed. The prebiotic potential of the purified AXOS was studied in the fermentation experiments with bifidobacteria and faecal microbiota. In AX extracted from flours and bran, high amounts of a-L-Araf units are attached to the b-D-Xylp main chain, whereas moderate or low degree of substitution was found from husks, cob and straw. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy showed that flour and bran AX contain high amounts of a-L-Araf units bound to the O-3 of b-D-Xylp residues and doubly substituted b-D-Xylp units with a-L-Araf substituents at O-2 and O-3. Barley husk and corn cob AX contain high amounts of b-D-Xylp(1→2)-a-L-Araf(1→3) side chains, which can also be found in AX from oat spelts and rice husks, and in lesser amounts in wheat straw AX. Rye and wheat flour AX and oat spelt AX were hydrolysed by Shearzyme® (with Aspergillus aculeatus GH10 endo-1,4-b-D-xylanase as the main enzyme) for the production of AXOS on a milligram scale. The AXOS were purified and their structures fully analysed, using mass spectrometry (MS) and 1D and 2D NMR spectroscopy. Monosubstituted xylobiose and xylotriose with a-L-Araf attached to the O-3 or O-2 of the nonreducing end b-D-Xylp unit and disubstituted AXOS with two a-L-Araf units at the nonreducing end b-D-Xylp unit of xylobiose or xylotriose were produced. Xylobiose with b-D-Xylp(1→2)-a-L-Araf(1→3) side chain was also purified. These AXOS were used as standards in further identification and quantification of corresponding AXOS from the hydrolysates in high-performance anion-exchange chromatography with pulsed amperometric detection (HPAEC-PAD) analysis. The prebiotic potential of AXOS was tested in in vitro fermentation experiments. Bifidobacterium adolescentis ATCC 15703 and B. longum ATCC 15707 utilized AXOS from the AX hydrolysates. Both species released L-arabinose from AXOS, but B. adolescentis consumed the XOS formed, whereas B. longum fermented the L-arabinose released. The third species tested, B. breve ATCC 15700, grew poorly on these substrates. When cultivated on pure AXOS, the bifidobacterial mixture utilized pure singly substituted AXOS almost completely, but no growth was detected with pure doubly substituted AXOS as substrates. However, doubly substituted AXOS were utilized from the mixture of xylose, XOS and AXOS. Faecal microbiota utilized both pure singly and doubly substituted AXOS. Thus, a mixture of singly and doubly substituted AXOS could function as a suitable, slowly fermenting prebiotic substance. This thesis contributes to the structural information on cereal AX and preparation of mono and doubly substituted AXOS from AX. Understanding the utilization strategies is fundamental in evaluating the prebiotic potential of AXOS. Further research is still required before AXOS can be used in applications for human consumption.

Studies of new inorganic species using relativistic quantum chemistry

In the present work the methods of relativistic quantum chemistry have been applied to a number of small systems containing heavy elements, for which relativistic effects are important. First, a thorough introduction of the methods used is presented. This includes some of the general methods of computational chemistry and a special section dealing with how to include the effects of relativity in quantum chemical calculations. Second, after this introduction the results obtained are presented. Investigations on high-valent mercury compounds are presented and new ways to synthesise such compounds are proposed. The methods described were applied to certain systems containing short Pt-Tl contacts. It was possible to explain the interesting bonding situation in these compounds. One of the most common actinide compounds, uranium hexafluoride was investigated and a new picture of the bonding was presented. Furthermore the rareness of uranium-cyanide compounds was discussed. In a foray into the chemistry of gold, well known for its strong relativistic effects, investigations on different gold systems were performed. Analogies between Au$^+$ and platinum on one hand and oxygen on the other were found. New systems with multiple bonds to gold were proposed to experimentalists. One of the proposed systems was spectroscopically observed shortly afterwards. A very interesting molecule, which was theoretically predicted a few years ago is WAu$_{12}$. Some of its properties were calculated and the bonding situation was discussed. In a further study on gold compounds it was possible to explain the substitution pattern in bis[phosphane-gold(I)] thiocyanate complexes. This is of some help to experimentalists as the systems could not be crystallised and the structure was therefore unknown. Finally, computations on one of the heaviest elements in the periodic table were performed. Calculation on compounds containing element 110, darmstadtium, showed that it behaves similarly as its lighter homologue platinum. The extreme importance of relativistic effects for these systems was also shown.

The kinetics and reactivity of several polyatomic free radicals in reactions with NO2, O2, Cl2, and HCl

In this thesis, the kinetics of several alkyl, halogenated alkyl, and alkenyl free radical reactions with NO2, O2, Cl2, and HCl reactants were studied over a wide temperature range in time resolved conditions. Laser photolysis photoionisation mass spectrometer coupled to a flow reactor was the experimental method employed and this thesis present the first measurements performed with the experimental system constructed. During this thesis a great amount of work was devoted to the designing, building, testing, and improving the experimental apparatus. Carbon-centred free radicals were generated by the pulsed 193 or 248 nm photolysis of suitable precursors along the tubular reactor. The kinetics was studied under pseudo-first-order conditions using either He or N2 buffer gas. The temperature and pressure ranges employed were between 190 and 500 K, and 0.5 45 torr, respectively. The possible role of heterogeneous wall reactions was investigated employing reactor tubes with different sizes, i.e. to significantly vary the surface to volume ratio. In this thesis, significant new contributions to the kinetics of carbon-centred free radical reactions with nitrogen dioxide were obtained. Altogether eight substituted alkyl (CH2Cl, CHCl2, CCl3, CH2I, CH2Br, CHBr2, CHBrCl, and CHBrCH3) and two alkenyl (C2H3, C3H3) free radical reactions with NO2 were investigated as a function of temperature. The bimolecular rate coefficients of all these reactions were observed to possess negative temperature dependencies, while pressure dependencies were not noticed for any of these reactions. Halogen substitution was observed to moderately reduce the reactivity of substituted alkyl radicals in the reaction with NO2, while the resonance stabilisation of the alkenyl radical lowers its reactivity with respect to NO2 only slightly. Two reactions relevant to atmospheric chemistry, CH2Br + O2 and CH2I + O2, were also investigated. It was noticed that while CH2Br + O2 reaction shows pronounced pressure dependence, characteristic of peroxy radical formation, no such dependence was observed for the CH2I + O2 reaction. Observed primary products of the CH2I + O2 reaction were the I-atom and the IO radical. Kinetics of CH3 + HCl, CD3 + HCl, CH3 + DCl, and CD3 + DCl reactions were also studied. While all these reactions possess positive activation energies, in contrast to the other systems investigated in this thesis, the CH3 + HCl and CD3 + HCl reactions show a non-linear temperature dependency on the Arrhenius plot. The reactivity of substituted methyl radicals toward NO2 was observed to increase with decreasing electron affinity of the radical. The same trend was observed for the reactions of substituted methyl radicals with Cl2. It is proposed that interactions of frontier orbitals are responsible to these observations and Frontier Orbital Theory could be used to explain the observed reactivity trends of these highly exothermic reactions having reactant-like transition states.

Cellulose Derivatives : Synthesis, Properties and Applications

Even though cellulose is the most abundant polymer on Earth, its utilisation has some limitations regarding its efficient use in the production of bio-based materials. It is quite clear from statistics that only a relatively small fraction of cellulose is used for the production of commodity materials and chemicals. This fact was the driving force in our research into understanding, designing, synthesising and finding new alternative applications for this well-known but underused biomaterial. This thesis focuses on the developing advanced materials and products from cellulose by using novel approaches. The aim of this study was to investigate and explore the versatility of cellulose as a starting material for the synthesis of cellulose-based materials, to introduce new synthetic methods for cellulose modification, and to widen the already existing synthetic approaches. Due to the insolubility of cellulose in organic solvents and in water, ionic liquids were applied extensively as the reaction media in the modification reactions. Cellulose derivatives were designed and fine-tuned to obtain desired properties. This was done by altering the inherent hydrogen bond network by introducing different substituents. These substituents either prevented spontaneous formation of hydrogen bonding completely or created new interactions between the cellulose chains. This enabled spontaneous self-assembly leading to supramolecular structures. It was also demonstrated that the material properties of cellulose can be modified even those molecules with a low degree of substitution when highly hydrophobic films and aerogels were prepared from fatty acid derivatives of nanocellulose. Development towards advanced cellulose-based materials was demostrated by synthesising chlorophyllcellulose derivatives that showed potential in photocurrent generation systems. In addition, liquid crystalline cellulose derivatives prepared in this study, showed to function as UV-absorbers in paper.

A New Rare-Gas Compound: HXeOXeH

Rare-gas chemistry is of growing interest, and the recent advances include the "insertion" of a Xe atom into OH and water in the rare-gas hydrides HXeO and HXeOH. The insertion of Xe atoms into the H-C bonds of hydrocarbons was also demonstrated for HXeCC, HXeCCH and HXeCCXeH, the last of which was the first rare-gas hydride containing two rare-gas atoms. We describe the preparation and characterization of a new rare-gas compound, HXeOXeH. HXeOXeH was prepared in solid xenon by photolysis of a suitable precursor, for example water, and subsequent mobilization of the photoproducts. The experimental identification was carried out by FTIR spectroscopy, isotopic substitution and by use of various precursors. The photolytical and thermal stability of the new rare-gas hydride was also studied. The experimental work was supported by extensive quantum chemical calculations provided by our co-workers. HXeOXeH forms in a cryogenic xenon matrix from neutral O and H atoms in a two-step diffusion-controlled process involving HXeO as an intermediate [reactions (1) and (2)]. This formation mechanism is unique in that a rare-gas hydride is formed from another rare-gas hydride. H + Xe + O → HXeO (1) HXeO + Xe + H → HXeOXeH (2) Similarly to other rare-gas hydrides, HXeOXeH has a strongly IR-active H-Xe stretching vibration, allowing its spectral detection at 1379.3 cm-1. HXeOXeH is a very high-energy metastable species, yet thermally more stable than many other rare-gas hydrides. The calculated bending barrier of 0.57 eV, is not enough to explain the observed stability, and HXeOXeH might be affected by additional stabilization from the solid xenon environment. Chemical bonding between xenon and environmentally abundant species like water is of particular importance due to the “missing-xenon” problem. The relatively high thermal stability of HXeOXeH compared to other oxygen containing rare-gas compounds is relevant in this respect. Our work also raises the possibility of polymeric (–Xe–O)n networks, similarly to the computationally studied (XeCC)n polymers.

Spatial variation of climate and the impact of disturbances on local climate and forest recovery in northern Finland

The structure and function of northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and variability and by human-induced disturbances. The projected global change is likely to have a pronounced effect on the distribution and productivity of different species, generating large changes in the equilibrium at the tree-line. In turn, movement of the tree-line and the redistribution of species produce feedback to both the local and the regional climate. This research was initiated with the objective of examining the influence of natural conditions on the small-scale spatial variation of climate in Finnish Lapland, and to study the interaction and feedback mechanisms in the climate-disturbances-vegetation system near the climatological border of boreal forest. The high (1 km) resolution spatial variation of climate parameters over northern Finland was determined by applying the Kriging interpolation method that takes into account the effect of external forcing variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, elevation, sea and lake coverage. Of all the natural factors shaping the climate, the geographical position, local topography and altitude proved to be the determining ones. Spatial analyses of temperature- and precipitation-derived parameters based on a 30-year dataset (1971-2000) provide a detailed description of the local climate. Maps of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, the frost-free period and the growing season indicate that the most favourable thermal conditions exist in the south-western part of Lapland, around large water bodies and in the Kemijoki basin, while the coldest regions are in highland and fell Lapland. The distribution of precipitation is predominantly longitudinally dependent but with the definite influence of local features. The impact of human-induced disturbances, i.e., forest fires, on local climate and its implication for forest recovery near the northern timberline was evaluated in the Tuntsa area of eastern Lapland, damaged by a widespread forest fire in 1960 and suffering repeatedly-failed vegetation recovery since that. Direct measurements of the local climate and simulated heat and water fluxes indicated the development of a more severe climate and physical conditions on the fire-disturbed site. Removal of the original, predominantly Norway spruce and downy birch vegetation and its substitution by tundra vegetation has generated increased wind velocity and reduced snow accumulation, associated with a large variation in soil temperature and moisture and deep soil frost. The changed structural parameters of the canopy have determined changes in energy fluxes by reducing the latter over the tundra vegetation. The altered surface and soil conditions, as well as the evolved severe local climate, have negatively affected seedling growth and survival, leading to more unfavourable conditions for the reproduction of boreal vegetation and thereby causing deviations in the regional position of the timberline. However it should be noted that other factors, such as an inadequate seed source or seedbed, the poor quality of the soil and the intensive logging of damaged trees could also exacerbate the poor tree regeneration. In spite of the failed forest recovery at Tunsta, the position and composition of the timberline and tree-line in Finnish Lapland may also benefit from present and future changes in climate. The already-observed and the projected increase in temperature, the prolonged growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation regime foster tree growth and new regeneration, resulting in an advance of the timberline and tree-line northward and upward. This shift in the distribution of vegetation might be decelerated or even halted by local topoclimatic conditions and by the expected increase in the frequency of disturbances.

Essays on Economic Integration and Labour Demand

This dissertation consists of an introductory section and three essays investigating the effects of economic integration on labour demand by using theoretical models and by empirical analysis. The essays adopt an intra-industry trade approach to specify a theoretical framework of estimation for determining the effects of economic integration on employment. In all the essays the empirical aim is to explore the labour demand consequences of European integration. The first essay analyzes how labour-demand elasticities with own price have changed during the process of economic integration. As a theoretical result, intensified trade competition increases labour-demand elasticity, whereas better advantage of economies of scale decreases labour-demand elasticity by decreasing the elasticity of substitution between differentiated products. Furthermore, if integration gives rise to an increase in input-substitutability and/or outsourcing activities, labour demand will become more elastic. Using data from the manufacturing sector from 1975 to 2002, the empirical results provide support for the hypothesis that European integration has contributed to increased elasticities of total labour demand in Finland. The second essay analyzes how economic integration affects the impact of welfare poli-cies on employment. The essay considers the viability of financing the public sector, i.e. public consumption and social security expenses, by general labour taxation in an economy which has become more integrated into international product markets. The theoretical results of the second essay indicate that, as increased trade competition crowds out better economies of scale, it becomes more costly to maintain welfare systems financed by labour taxation. Using data from European countries for the years 1975 to 2004, the empirical results provide inconsistent evidence for the hypothesis that economic integration has contributed to the distortion effects of welfare policies on employment. The third essay analyzes the impact of profit sharing on employment as a way to introduce wage flexibility into the process of economic integration. The results of the essay suggest that, in theory, the effects of economic integration on the impact of profit sharing on employment clearly depend on a trade-off between intensified competition and better advantage of economies of scale. If product market competition increases, the ability of profit sharing to improve employment through economic integration increases with moderated wages. While, the economic integration associating with market power in turn decrease the possibilities of profit sharing with higher wages to improve employment. Using data from the manufacturing sector for the years 1996 to 2004, the empirical results show that profit-sharing has a positive impact on employment during the process of European integration, but can have ambiguous effects on the stability of employment in Finland.

Essays on Misplanning Wealth and Health: A Behavioural Approach

The dissertation consists of three essays on misplanning wealth and health accumulation. The conventional economics assumes that individual's intertemporal preferences are exponential (exponential preferences, EP). Recent findings in behavioural economics have shown that, actually, people do discount near future relatively heavier than distant future. This implies hyperbolic intertemporal preferences (HP). Essays I and II concentrate especially on the effects of a delayed completion of tasks, a feature of behaviour that HP enables. Essay III uses current Finnish data to analyse the evolvement of the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and inconsistencies in measuring that. Essay I studies the existence effects of a lucrative retirement savings program (SP) on the retirement savings of different individual types having HP. If the individual does not know that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the naïve, for certain conditions, he delays the enrolment on SP until he abandons it. Very interesting finding is that the naïve retires then poorer in the presence than in the absence of SP. For the same conditions, the individual who knows that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the sophisticated, gains from the existence of SP, and retires with greater retirement savings in the presence than in the absence of SP. Finally, capabilities to learn from past behaviour and about intertemporal preferences improve possibilities to gain from the existence but an adequate time to learn must be then guaranteed. Essay II studies delayed doctor's visits, theirs effects on the costs of a public health care system and government's attempts to control patient behaviour and fund the system. The controlling devices are a consultation fee and a deductible for that. The deductible is effective only for a patient whose diagnosis reveals a disease that would not get cured without the doctor's visit. The naives delay their visits the longest while EP-patients are the quickest visitors. To control the naives, the government should implement a low fee and a high deductible, while for the sophisticates the opposite is true. Finally, if all the types exist in an economy then using an incorrect conventional assumption that all individuals have EP leads to worse situation and requires higher tax rates than assuming incorrectly but unconventionally that only the naives exists. Essay III studies the development of QALYs in Finland 1995/96-2004. The essay concentrates on developing a consistent measure, i.e. independent of discounting, for measuring the age and gender specific QALY-changes and their incidences. For the given time interval, use of a relative change out of an attainable change seems to be almost intact to discounting and reveals that the greatest gains are for older age groups.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy under a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime

This licentiate's thesis analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate regime, assuming that the government spends exclusively on domestically produced goods. The motivation for this research comes from the observation that the literature on the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) has focused almost exclusively on two-country global models and the analyses of the effects of fiscal policy on small economies are almost completely ignored. This thesis aims at filling in the gap in the NOEM literature and illustrates how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on the specification of preferences. The research method is to present two theoretical model that are extensions to the model contained in the Appendix to Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). The first model analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy, making use of a model that exploits the idea of modelling private and government consumption as substitutes in private utility. The model offers intuitive predictions on how the effects of fiscal policy depend on the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The findings illustrate that the higher the substitutability between private and government consumption, (i) the bigger is the crowding out effect on private consumption (ii) and the smaller is the positive effect on output. The welfare analysis shows that the less fiscal policy decreases welfare the higher is the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The second model of this thesis studies how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy depend on the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. This model reveals that this elasticity a key variable to explain the exchange rate, current account and output response to a permanent rise in government spending. Finally, the model demonstrates that temporary changes in government spending are an effective stabilization tool when used wisely and timely in response to undesired fluctuations in output. Undesired fluctuations in output can be perfectly offset by an opposite change in government spending without causing any side-effects.