An Empirical Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Volatility Models for Nordic Stock Returns

This paper examines how volatility in financial markets can preferable be modeled. The examination investigates how good the models for the volatility, both linear and nonlinear, are in absorbing skewness and kurtosis. The examination is done on the Nordic stock markets, including Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Different linear and nonlinear models are applied, and the results indicates that a linear model can almost always be used for modeling the series under investigation, even though nonlinear models performs slightly better in some cases. These results indicate that the markets under study are exposed to asymmetric patterns only to a certain degree. Negative shocks generally have a more prominent effect on the markets, but these effects are not really strong. However, in terms of absorbing skewness and kurtosis, nonlinear models outperform linear ones.

Discriminative learning of Bayesian networks via factorized conditional log-likelihood

We propose an efficient and parameter-free scoring criterion, the factorized conditional log-likelihood (ˆfCLL), for learning Bayesian network classifiers. The proposed score is an approximation of the conditional log-likelihood criterion. The approximation is devised in order to guarantee decomposability over the network structure, as well as efficient estimation of the optimal parameters, achieving the same time and space complexity as the traditional log-likelihood scoring criterion. The resulting criterion has an information-theoretic interpretation based on interaction information, which exhibits its discriminative nature. To evaluate the performance of the proposed criterion, we present an empirical comparison with state-of-the-art classifiers. Results on a large suite of benchmark data sets from the UCI repository show that ˆfCLL-trained classifiers achieve at least as good accuracy as the best compared classifiers, using significantly less computational resources.

Local Politicizations : A Comparison of Finns and French Practicing Democracy

This study examines how do the processes of politicization differ in the Finnish and the French local contexts, and what kinds of consequences do these processes have on the local civic practices, the definitions and redefinitions of democracy and citizenship, the dynamics of power and resistance, and the ways of solving controversies in the public sphere. By means of comparative anthropology of the state , focusing on how democracy actually is practiced in different contexts, politicizations the processes of opening political arenas and recognizing controversy are analyzed. The focus of the study is on local activists engaged in different struggles on various levels of the local public spheres, and local politicians and civil servants participating in these struggles from their respective positions, in two middle-size European cities, Helsinki and Lyon. The empirical analyses of the book compare different political actors and levels of practicing democracy simultaneously. The study is empirically based on four different bodies of material: Ethnographic notes taken during a fieldwork among the activities of several local activist groups; 47 interviews of local activists and politicians; images representing different levels of public portrayals from activist websites (Helsinki N=274, Lyon N=232) and from city information magazines (Helsinki-info N=208, Lyon Citoyen N= 357); and finally, newspaper articles concerning local conflict issues, and reporting on the encounters between local citizens and representatives of the cities (January-June in 2005; Helsingin Sanomat N=96 and Le Progrès N= 102). The study makes three distinctive contributions to the study of current democratic societies: (1) a conceptual one by bringing politicization at the center of a comparison of political cultures, and by considering in parallel the ethnographic group styles theory by Nina Eliasoph and Paul Lichterman, the theory on counter-democracy by Pierre Rosanvallon and the pragmatist justification theory by Luc Boltanski and Laurent Thévenot; (2) an empirical one through the triangulation of ethnographic, thematic interview, visual, and newspaper data through which the different aspects of democratic practices are examined; and (3) a methodological one by developing new ways of analyzing comparative cases an application of Frame Analysis to visual material and the creation of Public Justification Analysis for analyzing morally loaded claims in newspaper reports thus building bridges between cultural, political, and pragmatic sociology. The results of the study indicate that the cultural tools the Finnish civic actors had at their disposal were prone to hinder more than support politicization, whereas the tools the French actors mainly relied on were frequently apt for making politicization possible. This crystallization is defined and detailed in many ways in the analyses of the book. Its consequences to the understanding and future research on the current developments of democracy are multiple, as politicization, while not assuring good results as such, is central to a functioning and vibrant democracy in which injustices can be fixed and new directions and solutions sought collectively.

Offering Development in the Restaurant Sector. A Comparison Between Customer Perceptions and Management Beliefs

The present study concentrates on a small – but important – area of marketing: offering development within the service sector, more exactly the restaurant sector. The empirical part of the study has been carried out in the Helsinki metropolitan area using six successful restaurants. First, a conceptual offering development model is developed based on how the management perceives the offering development processes. Second, customer perceptions of offerings and management beliefs about how the customers perceive the offerings are analysed. Finally, an extended offering development model is created based on the management perceptions (the first model) as well as on observed gaps between customer perceptions of offerings and management beliefs about the customer perceptions. The study reveals that customer perceptions and management beliefs are rather similar but also that some differences exist. These differences are taken into account in the extended offering development model (the second model). The empirical data was collected through interviews and surveys. All together 393 customers and 14 managers participated in the study. The study suggests that successful offering development has to be closely connected with the general strategy of the company. A shared vision within the company in combination with a systematic strategic offering development process create a sound basis for the practical development work. The main contribution of the study is the extended offering development model forming a framework for further studies within the area.

Readers' resposes versus reader-response theories : An empirical study

This study examines both theoretically an empirically how well the theories of Norman Holland, David Bleich, Wolfgang Iser and Stanley Fish can explain readers' interpretations of literary texts. The theoretical analysis concentrates on their views on language from the point of view of Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations. This analysis shows that many of the assumptions related to language in these theories are problematic. The empirical data show that readers often form very similar interpretations. Thus the study challenges the common assumption that literary interpretations tend to be idiosyncratic. The empirical data consists of freely worded written answers to questions on three short stories. The interpretations were made by 27 Finnish university students. Some of the questions addressed issues that were discussed in large parts of the texts, some referred to issues that were mentioned only in passing or implied. The short stories were "The Witch à la Mode" by D. H. Lawrence, "Rain in the Heart" by Peter Taylor and "The Hitchhiking Game" by Milan Kundera. According to Fish, readers create both the formal features of a text and their interpretation of it according to an interpretive strategy. People who agree form an interpretive community. However, a typical answer usually contains ideas repeated by several readers as well as observations not mentioned by anyone else. Therefore it is very difficult to determine which readers belong to the same interpretive community. Moreover, readers with opposing opinions often seem to pay attention to the same textual features and even acknowledge the possibility of an opposing interpretation; therefore they do not seem to create the formal features of the text in different ways. Iser suggests that an interpretation emerges from the interaction between the text and the reader when the reader determines the implications of the text and in this way fills the "gaps" in the text. Iser believes that the text guides the reader, but as he also believes that meaning is on a level beyond words, he cannot explain how the text directs the reader. The similarity in the interpretations and the fact that the agreement is strongest when related to issues that are discussed broadly in the text do, however, support his assumption that readers are guided by the text. In Bleich's view, all interpretations have personal motives and each person has an idiosyncratic language system. The situation where a person learns a word determines the most important meaning it has for that person. In order to uncover the personal etymologies of words, Bleich asks his readers to associate freely on the basis of a text and note down all the personal memories and feelings that the reading experience evokes. Bleich's theory of the idiosyncratic language system seems to rely on a misconceived notion of the role that ostensive definitions have in language use. The readers' responses show that spontaneous associations to personal life seem to colour the readers' interpretations, but such instances are rather rare. According to Holland, an interpretation reflects the reader's identity theme. Language use is regulated by shared rules, but everyone follows the rules in his or her own way. Words mean different things to different people. The problem with this view is that if there is any basis for language use, it seems to be the shared way of following linguistic rules. Wittgenstein suggests that our understanding of words is related to the shared ways of using words and our understanding of human behaviour. This view seems to give better grounds for understanding similarity and differences in literary interpretations than the theories of Holland, Bleich, Fish and Iser.

A sequential analysis of "nú" and "núna" in Icelandic conversation

This thesis is an empirical study of how two words in Icelandic, "nú" and "núna", are used in contemporary Icelandic conversation. My aims in this study are, first, to explain the differences between the temporal functions of "nú" and "núna", and, second, to describe the non-temporal functions of "nú". In the analysis, a focus is placed on comparing the sequential placement of the two words, on their syntactical distribution, and on their prosodic realization. The empirical data comprise 14 hours and 11 minutes of naturally occurring conversation recorded between 1996 and 2003. The selected conversations represent a wide range of interactional contexts including informal dinner parties, institutional and non-institutional telephone conversations, radio programs for teenagers, phone-in programs, and, finally, a political debate on television. The theoretical and methodological framework is interactional linguistics, which can be described as linguistically oriented conversation analysis (CA). A comparison of "nú" and "núna" shows that the two words have different syntactic distributions. "Nú" has a clear tendency to occur in the front field, before the finite verb, while "núna" typically occurs in the end field, after the object. It is argued that this syntactic difference reflects a functional difference between "nú" and "núna". A sequential analysis of "núna" shows that the word refers to an unspecified period of time which includes the utterance time as well as some time in the past and in the future. This temporal relation is referred to as reference time. "Nú", by contrast, is mainly used in three different environments: a) in temporal comparisons, 2) in transitions, and 3) when the speaker is taking an affective stance. The non-temporal functions of "nú" are divided into three categories: a) "nú" as a tone particle, 2) "nú" as an utterance particle, and 3) "nú" as a dialogue particle. "Nú" as a tone particle is syntactically integrated and can occur in two syntactic positions: pre-verbally and post-verbally. I argue that these instances are employed in utterances in which a speaker is foregrounding information or marking it as particularly important. The study shows that, although these instances are typically prosodically non-prominent and unstressed, they are in some cases delivered with stress and with a higher pitch than the surrounding talk. "Nú" as an utterance particle occurs turn-initially and is syntactically non-integrated. By using "nú", speakers show continuity between turns and link new turns to prior ones. These instances initiate either continuations by the same speaker or new turns after speaker shifts. "Nú" as a dialogue particle occurs as a turn of its own. The study shows that these instances register informings in prior turns as unexpected or as a departure from the normal state of affairs. "Nú" as a dialogue particle is often delivered with a prolonged vowel and a recognizable intonation contour. A comparative sequential and prosodic analysis shows that in these cases there is a correlation between the function of "nú" and the intonation contour by which it is delivered. Finally, I argue that despite the many functions of "nú", all the instances can be said to have a common denominator, which is to display attention towards the present moment and the utterances which are produced prior or after the production of "nú". Instead of anchoring the utterances in external time or reference time, these instances position the utterance in discourse internal time, or discourse time.

Nonverbal predication in Erzya : Studies on morphosyntactic variation and part of speech distinctions

This dissertation consists of four articles and an introduction. The five parts address the same topic, nonverbal predication in Erzya, from different perspectives. The work is at the same time linguistic typology and Uralic studies. The findings based on a large corpus of empirical Erzya data, which was collected using several different methods and included recordings of the spoken language, made it possible for the present study to apply, then test and finally discuss the previous theories based on cross-linguistic data. Erzya makes use of multiple predication patterns which vary from totally analytic to the morphologically very complex. Nonverbal predicate clause types are classified on the basis of propositional acts in clauses denoting class-membership, identity, property and location. The predicates of these clauses are nouns, adjectives and locational expressions, respectively. The following three predication strategies in Erzya nonverbal predication can be identified: i. the zero-copula construction, ii. the predicative suffix construction and iii. the copula construction. It has been suggested that verbs and nouns cannot be clearly distinguished on morphological grounds when functioning as predicates in Erzya. This study shows that even though predicativity must not be considered a sufficient tool for defining parts of speech in any language, the Erzya lexical classes of adjective, noun and verb can be distinguished from each other also in predicate position. The relative frequency and degree of obligation for using the predicative suffix construction decreases when moving left to right on the scale verb adjective/locative noun ( identificational statement). The predicative suffix is the main pattern in the present tense over the whole domain of nonverbal predication in Standard Erzya, but if it is replaced it is most likely to be with a zero-copula construction in a nominal predication. This study exploits the theory of (a)symmetry for the first time in order to describe verbal vs. nonverbal predication. It is shown that the asymmetry of paradigms and constructions differentiates the lexical classes. Asymmetrical structures are motivated by functional level asymmetry. Variation in predication as such adds to the complexity of the grammar. When symmetric structures are employed, the functional complexity of grammar decreases, even though morphological complexity increases. The genre affects the employment of predication strategies in Erzya. There are differences in the relative frequency of the patterns, and some patterns are totally lacking from some of the data. The clearest difference is that the past tense predicative suffix construction occurs relatively frequently in Standard Erzya, while it occurs infrequently in the other data. Also, the predicative suffixes of the present tense are used more regularly in written Standard Erzya than in any other genre. The genre also affects the incidence of the translative in uľ(ń)ems copula constructions. In translations from Russian to Erzya the translative case is employed relatively frequently in comparison to other data. This study reveals differences between the two Mordvinic languages Erzya and Moksha. The predicative suffixes (bound person markers) of the present tense are used more regularly in Moksha in all kinds of nonverbal predicate clauses compared to Erzya. It should further be observed that identificational statements are encoded with a predicative suffix in Moksha, but seldom in Erzya. Erzya clauses are more frequently encoded using zero-constructions, displaying agreement in number only.

Methodological and Empirical Advances in the Quantitative Analysis of Spontaneous Responses in Psychophysiological Time Series

The aim of the present study was to advance the methodology and use of time series analysis to quantify dynamic structures in psychophysiological processes and thereby to produce information on spontaneously coupled physiological responses and their behavioral and experiential correlates. Series of analyses using both simulated and empirical cardiac (IBI), electrodermal (EDA), and facial electromyographic (EMG) data indicated that, despite potential autocorrelated structures, smoothing increased the reliability of detecting response coupling from an interindividual distribution of intraindividual measures and that especially the measures of covariance produced accurate information on the extent of coupled responses. This methodology was applied to analyze spontaneously coupled IBI, EDA, and facial EMG responses and vagal activity in their relation to emotional experience and personality characteristics in a group of middle-aged men (n = 37) during the administration of the Rorschach testing protocol. The results revealed new characteristics in the relationship between phasic end-organ synchronization and vagal activity, on the one hand, and individual differences in emotional adjustment to novel situations on the other. Specifically, it appeared that the vagal system is intimately related to emotional and social responsivity. It was also found that the lack of spontaneously synchronized responses is related to decreased energetic arousal (e.g., depression, mood). These findings indicate that the present process analysis approach has many advantages for use in both experimental and applied research, and that it is a useful new paradigm in psychophysiological research. Keywords: Autonomic Nervous System; Emotion; Facial Electromyography; Individual Differences; Spontaneous Responses; Time Series Analysis; Vagal System

Kouluvalinta vai koulun valinta? : Oppilaiden valikoituminen yläkouluihin Espoossa keväällä 2006

Changes in governance in the public sector made it possible to give the power to the level of service production. In Finland schools were diversified. They wanted to be as attractive as possible. In her dissertation (2006) Piia Seppänen studied parental choice and schools choice policies in Espoo, in Kuopio, in Lahti, inTurku and in some levels in Helsinki too. After her study was done there has been some changes in school choise policy in Espoo. The catchments areas changed radically; earlier every school did have its own catchment area. But now three or even five school has the same catchment area. On the base of the Seppänen’s dissertation I wondered who’s choice it really were? Is the choice maker customer or producer of the service? In my study I tried to understand those processes where pupils were selected for the 7th grade in lower secondary schools in the spring in 2006. To make the picture clear, I have to study the history of pupil selection and the changes of it in the 21st century. I also have to study the geography of the town which is quite special in comparison with the normal cities with one central area. This has its own effects on the pupil selection system as well as in the whole study. In my study I try to present what kind of process the pupil selection is in Espoo and how it was done actually in the spring of 2006. The empirical data of my study were statistical data, documents of different kind, conversations with principals, local authorities and politicians. I also interviewed one politician and observed a few information meetings about the pupil selection process. Based on this large variety of data I tried to draw a picture of the way of speaking (writing) about the ability of the choice. Furthermore, how this pupil selection is done in reality. The ability to apply to special instruction in f. e. music, graphic arts or maths and sciences or to language based instruction (bilingual and immersion teaching) depends on the district you live. Because there is one catchment area which has no special or language based instruction available. Also the poor public transport system might have some effects on the parental choice. According to my study, 20 % of the 7th grade pupils were selected with criteria of different kind to special classes. Because the ability to get special or language based instruction depends on your district, there is a big risk for a selection based on the pupils' socio-economic background.

Is a Majority Enough? Psychological Well-being and Its Relation to Academic and Prosocial Motivation, Self-regulation and Achievement at school

This cross-sectional study analyzed psychological well-being at school using the Self-Determination theory as a theoretical frame-work. The study explored basic psychological needs fulfillment (BPNS), academic (SRQ-A), prosocial self-regulation (SRQ-P) and motivation, and their relationship with achievement in general, special and selective education (N=786, 444 boys, 345 girls, mean age 12 yrs 8 mths). Motivation starts behavior which becomes guided by self-regulation. The perceived locus of control (PLOC) affects how self-determined this behavior will be; in other words, to what extent it is autonomously regulated. In order learn and thus to be able to accept external goals, a student has to feel emotionally safe and have sufficient ego-flexibility—all of which builds on satisfied psychological needs. In this study those conditions were explored. In addition to traditional methods Self-organizing maps (SOM), was used in order to cluster the students according to their well-being, self-regulation, motivation and achievement scores. The main impacts of this research were: a presentation of the theory based alternative of studying psychological well-being at school and usage of both the variable and person-oriented approach. In this Finnish sample the results showed that the majority of students felt well, but the well-being varied by group. Overall about for 11–15% the basic needs were deprived depending on the educational group. Age and educational group were the most effective factors; gender was important in relation to prosocial identified behavior. Although the person-oriented SOM-approach, was in a large extent confirming what was no-ticed by using comparison of the variables: the SEN groups had lower levels of basic needs fulfillment and less autonomous self-regulation, interesting deviations of that rule appeared. Some of the SEL- and GEN-group members ended up in the more unfavorable SOM-clusters, and not all SEN-group members belonged to the poorest clusters (although not to the best either). This evidence refines the well-being and self-regulation picture, and may re-direct intervention plans, and turn our focus also on students who might otherwise remain unnoticed. On the other hand, these results imply simultaneously that in special education groups the average is not the whole truth. On the basis of theoretical and empirical considerations an intervention model was sug-gested. The aim of the model was to shift amotivation or external motivation in a more intrinsic direction. According to the theoretical and empirical evidence this can be achieved first by studying the self-concept a student has, and then trying to affect both inner and environmental factors—including a consideration of the basic psychological needs. Keywords: academic self-regulation, prosocial self-regulation, basic psychological needs, moti-vation, achievement

From a tree to a stand in Finnish boreal forests: biomass estimation and comparison of methods

There is an increasing need to compare the results obtained with different methods of estimation of tree biomass in order to reduce the uncertainty in the assessment of forest biomass carbon. In this study, tree biomass was investigated in a 30-year-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) (Young-Stand) and a 130-year-old mixed Norway spruce (Picea abies)-Scots pine stand (Mature-Stand) located in southern Finland (61º50' N, 24º22' E). In particular, a comparison of the results of different estimation methods was conducted to assess the reliability and suitability of their applications. For the trees in Mature-Stand, annual stem biomass increment fluctuated following a sigmoid equation, and the fitting curves reached a maximum level (from about 1 kg/yr for understorey spruce to 7 kg/yr for dominant pine) when the trees were 100 years old. Tree biomass was estimated to be about 70 Mg/ha in Young-Stand and about 220 Mg/ha in Mature-Stand. In the region (58.00-62.13 ºN, 14-34 ºE, ≤ 300 m a.s.l.) surrounding the study stands, the tree biomass accumulation in Norway spruce and Scots pine stands followed a sigmoid equation with stand age, with a maximum of 230 Mg/ha at the age of 140 years. In Mature-Stand, lichen biomass on the trees was 1.63 Mg/ha with more than half of the biomass occurring on dead branches, and the standing crop of litter lichen on the ground was about 0.09 Mg/ha. There were substantial differences among the results estimated by different methods in the stands. These results imply that a possible estimation error should be taken into account when calculating tree biomass in a stand with an indirect approach.

Integrating biodiversity conservation into forestry : an empirical analysis of institutional adaptation

Integrating biodiversity conservation into forest management in non-industrial private forests requires changes in the practices of those public and private actors that have implementing responsibilities and whose strategic and operational opportunities are at stake. Understanding this kind of context-dependent institutional adaptation requires bridging between two analytical approaches: policy implementation and organizational adaptation, backed up with empirical analysis. The empirical analyses recapitulated in this thesis summary address organizational competences, specialization, professional judgment, and organizational networks. The analyses utilize qualitative and quantitative data from public and private sector organizations as well as associations. The empirical analyses produced stronger signals of policy implementation than of organizational adaptation. The organizations recognized the policy and social demand for integrating biodiversity conservation into forest management and their professionals were in favor of conserving biodiversity. However, conservation was integrated to forest management so tightly that it could be said to be subsumed by mainstream forestry. The organizations had developed some competences for conservation but the competences did not differentiate among the organizations other than illustrating the functional differences between industry, administration and associations. The networks that organizations depended on consisted of traditional forestry actors and peers both in planning policy and at the operational level. The results show that he demand for biodiversity conservation has triggered incremental changes in organizations. They can be considered inert regarding this challenge. Isomorphism is advanced by hierarchical guidance and standardization, and by professional norms. Analytically, this thesis contributes to the understanding of organizational behavior across the public and private sector boundaries. The combination of a policy implementation approach inherent in analysis of public policies in hierarchical administration settings, and organizational adaptation typically applied to private sector organizations, highlights the importance of institutional interpretation. Institutional interpretation serves the understanding of the empirically identified diversions from the basic tenets of the two approaches. Attention to institutions allows identification of the overlap of the traditionally segregated approaches.

How to Succeed in Knowledge Transfer : Case Study of Scandinavian Alliance in Ukraine

The current study of Scandinavian multinational corporate subsidiaries in the rapidly growing Eastern European market, due to their particular organizational structure, attempts to gain some new insights into processes and potential benefits of knowledge and technology transfer. This study explores how to succeed in knowledge transfer and to become more competitive, driven by the need to improve transfer of systematic knowledge for the manufacture of product and service provisions in newly entered market. The scope of current research is exactly limited to multinational corporations, which are defined as enterprises comprising entities in two or more countries, regardless of legal forms and field of activity of those entities, and which operate under a system of decision-making permitting coherent policies and a common strategy through one or more decision-making centers. The entities are linked, by ownership, and able to exercise influence over the activities of the others; and, in particular, to share the knowledge, resources, and responsibilities with others. The research question is "How and to which extent can knowledge-transfer influence a company's technological competence and economic competitiveness?" and try to find out what particular forces and factors affect the development of subsidiary competencies; what factors influence the corporate integration and use of the subsidiary's competencies; and what may increase competitiveness of MNC pursuing leading position in entered market. The empirical part of the research was based on qualitative analyses of twenty interviews conducted among employees in Scandinavian MNC subsidiary units situated in Ukraine, using structured sequence of questions with open-ended answers. The data was investigated by comparison case analyses to literature framework. Findings indicate that a technological competence developed in one subsidiary will lead to an integration of that competence with other corporate units within the MNC. Success increasingly depends upon people's learning. The local economic area is crucial for understanding competition and industrial performance, as there seems to be a clear link between the performance of subsidiaries and the conditions prevailing in their environment. The linkage between competitive advantage and company's success is mutually dependent. Observation suggests that companies can be characterized as clusters of complementary activities such as R&D, administration, marketing, manufacturing and distribution. Study identifies barriers and obstacles in technology and knowledge transfer that is relevant for the subsidiaries' competence development. The accumulated experience can be implemented in new entered market with simple procedures, and at a low cost under specific circumstances, by cloning. The main goal is focused to support company prosperity, making more profits and sustaining an increased market share by improved product quality and/or reduced production cost of the subsidiaries through cloning approach. Keywords: multinational corporation; technology transfer; knowledge transfer; subsidiary competence; barriers and obstacles; competitive advantage; Eastern European market