Ecological processes and large-scale climate relationships in northern coniferous forests

Ilmasto vaikuttaa ekologisiin prosesseihin eri tasoilla. Suuren mittakaavan ilmastoprosessit, yhdessä ilmakehän ja valtamerien kanssa, säätelevät paikallisia sääilmiöitä suurilla alueilla (mantereista pallopuoliskoihin). Tämä väistöskirja pyrkii selittämään kuinka suuren mittakaavan ilmasto on vaikuttanut tiettyihin ekologisiin prosesseihin pohjoisella havumetsäalueella. Valitut prosessit olivat puiden vuosilustojen kasvu, metsäpalojen esiintyminen ja vuoristomäntykovakuoriaisen aiheuttamat puukuolemat. Suuren mittakaavan ilmaston löydettiin vaikuttaneen näiden prosessien esiintymistiheyteen, kestoon ja levinneisyyteen keskeisten sään muuttujien välityksellä hyvin laajoilla alueilla. Tutkituilla prosesseilla oli vahva yhteys laajan mittakaavan ilmastoon. Yhteys on kuitenkin ollut hyvin dynaaminen ja muuttunut 1900-luvulla ilmastonmuutoksen aiheuttaessa muutoksia suuren mittakaavan ja alueellisten ilmastoprosessien välisiin sisäisiin suhteisiin.

Turning the Kaleidoscope - (E)FL Educational Experience and Inquiry as Auto/biography

This book is a study on learning, teaching/counselling, and research on the two. My quest has been to find a pedagogically-motivated way of researching learning and teaching interaction, and in particular counselling, in an autonomous language-learning environment. I have tried to develop a method that would make room for lived experience, meaning-making and narrating, because in my view these all characterise learning encounters between language learners and counsellors, and learners and their peers. Lived experience as a source of meaning, telling and co-telling becomes especially significant when we try to listen to the diverse personal and academic voices of the past as expressed in autobiographical narratives. I have aimed at researching various ALMS dialogues (Autonomous Learning Modules, University of Helsinki Language Centre English course and programme), and autobiographical narratives within them, in a way that shows respect for the participants, and that is relevant, reflective and, most importantly, self-reflexive. My interest has been in autobiographical telling in (E)FL [(English as a) foreign language], both in students first-person written texts on their language- learning histories and in the sharing of stories between learners and a counsellor. I have turned to narrative inquiry in my quest and have written the thesis as an experiential narrative. In particular, I have studied learners and counsellors in one and the same story, as characters in one narrative, in an attempt to avoid the impression that I am telling yet another separate, anecdotal story, retrospectively. Through narrative, I have shed light on the subjective dimensions of language learning and experience, and have come closer to understanding the emotional aspects of learning encounters. I have questioned and rejected a distanced and objective approach to describing learning and teaching/counselling. I have argued for a holistic and experiential approach to (E)FL encounters in which there is a need to see emotion and cognition as intertwined, and thus to appreciate learners and counsellors emotionally-charged experiences as integral to their identities. I have also argued for a way of describing such encounters as they are situated in history, time, autobiography, and the learning context. I have turned my gaze on various constellations of lived experience: the data was collected on various occasions and in various settings during one course and consists of videotaped group sessions, individual counselling sessions between students and their group counsellor, biographic narrative interviews with myself, open-ended personally-inspired reflection texts written by the students about their language-learning histories, and student logs and diaries. I do not consider data collection an unproblematic occasion, or innocent practice, and I defend the integrity of the research process. Research writing cannot be separated from narrative field work and analysing and interpreting the data. The foci in my work have turned to be the following: 1) describing ALMS encounters and specifying their narrative aspects; 2) reconceptualising learner and teacher autonomy in ALMS and in (E)FL; 2) developing (E)FL methodologically through a teacher-researcher s identity work; 4) research writing as a dialogical narrative process, and the thesis as an experiential narrative. Identity and writing as inquiry, and the deeply narrative and autobiographical nature of the (E)FL teaching/counselling/researching have come to the fore in this research. Research writing as a relational activity and its implications for situated ways of knowing and knowledge turned out to be important foci. I have also focussed on the context-bound and local teacher knowledge and ways of knowing about being a teacher, and I have argued for personal ways of knowing about, and learning and studying foreign languages. I discuss research as auto/biography: as a practising counsellor I use my own life and (E)FL experience to understand and interpret the stories of the research participants even though I was not involved in their course work. The supposedly static binaries of learner/teacher, and also learner autonomy/teacher autonomy, are thus brought into the discussion. I have highlighted the infinite variability and ever-changing nature of learning and teaching English, but the book is also of relevance to foreign language education in general.

Metsänomistajakunnan rakenteen ennustaminen

The general change in the population structure and its impacts on the forest ownership structure were investigated in the thesis. The research assumed that the structural change in society has an effect on the outlook of the non-industrial private forest ownership. The changes in the structure of society were mainly restricted to population, education and occupation structures. The migration of the rural population into cities was also taken into consideration. The structural changes both in society and the non-industrial private forest ownership were examined as phenomena and their development directions were investigated since the middle of the 1970s. It could be established that the changes in the structures were mainly of the same kind in society as in forest owner structure. The clearest similarities between the changes in population and forest owner structure could be found in an increased mean age, a decrease in the 18 to 39 age bracket, those without a degree and in the farmers' shares. Furthermore it could be stated that migration into cities had taken place among both the forest owners and the general population. The main part of the research was concentrated on estimating regression models that explain the non-industrial private forest ownership change by the structural change in the population. A panel data was gathered from population statistics and previous forest ownership research information. The panel contained the years 1990 and 1999. With the assistance of the panel data it was possible to estimate regression and fixed effects' models that explained the structural changes in the non-industrial private forest ownership by evolution in the whole population. In the use of the estimated models authorities' forecasts considering the population were exploited. Only a few of the estimated models were statistically significant. This could be explained due to lack of a larger panel data. In addition the structural change of the non-industrial forest ownership was forecasted by trends.

Informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance market

This thesis studies the informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) market. In an efficient market, the market price is unpredictable and profits above average are impossible in the long run. The main research problem is does the EUA price follow a random walk. The method is an econometric analysis of the price series, which includes an autocorrelation coefficient test and a variance ratio test. The results reveal that the price series is autocorrelated and therefore a nonrandom walk. In order to find out the extent of predictability, the price series is modelled with an autoregressive model. The conclusion is that the EUA price is autocorrelated only to a small degree and that the predictability cannot be used to make extra profits. The EUA market is therefore considered informationally efficient, although the price series does not fulfill the requirements of a random walk. A market review supports the conclusion, but it is clear that the maturing of the market is still in process.

A Critical Assesment of Occluded Fronts

The aim of this work was the assessment about the structure and use of the conceptual model of occlusion in operational weather forecasting. In the beginning a survey has been made about the conceptual model of occlusion as introduced to operational forecasters in the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). In the same context an overview has been performed about the use of the conceptual model in modern operational weather forecasting, especially in connection with the widespread use of numerical forecasts. In order to evaluate the features of the occlusions in operational weather forecasting, all the occlusion processes occurring during year 2003 over Europe and Northern Atlantic area have been investigated using the conceptual model of occlusion and the methods suggested in the FMI. The investigation has yielded a classification of the occluded cyclones on the basis of the extent the conceptual model has fitted the description of the observed thermal structure. The seasonal and geographical distribution of the classes has been inspected. Some relevant cases belonging to different classes have been collected and analyzed in detail: in this deeper investigation tools and techniques, which are not routinely used in operational weather forecasting, have been adopted. Both the statistical investigation of the occluded cyclones during year 2003 and the case studies have revealed that the traditional classification of the types of the occlusion on the basis of the thermal structure doesn t take into account the bigger variety of occlusion structures which can be observed. Moreover the conceptual model of occlusion has turned out to be often inadequate in describing well developed cyclones. A deep and constructive revision of the conceptual model of occlusion is therefore suggested in light of the result obtained in this work. The revision should take into account both the progresses which are being made in building a theoretical footing for the occlusion process and the recent tools and meteorological quantities which are nowadays available.

Autoxidation of conjugated linoleic acid methyl ester in the presence of α-tocopherol: the hydroperoxide pathway

The autoxidation of conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) is poorly understood in spite of increasing interest in the beneficial biological properties of CLA and growing consumption of CLA-rich foods. In this thesis, the autoxidation reactions of the two major CLA isomers, 9-cis,11-trans-octadecadienoic acid and 10-trans,12-cis-octadecadienoic acid, are investigated. The results contribute to an understanding of the early stages of the autoxidation of CLA methyl ester, and provide for the first time a means of producing and separating intact CLA methyl ester hydroperoxides as well as basic knowledge on lipid hydroperoxides and their hydroxy derivatives. Conjugated diene allylic monohydroperoxides were discovered as primary autoxidation products formed during autoxidation of CLA methyl esters in the presence and absence of α-tocopherol. This established that one of the autoxidation pathways of CLA methyl ester is the hydroperoxide pathway. Hydroperoxides were produced from the two major CLA methyl esters by taking advantage of the effect of α-tocopherol to promote hydroperoxide formation. The hydroperoxides were analysed and separated first as methyl hydroxyoctadecadienoates and then as intact hydroperoxides by HPLC. The isolated products were characterized by UV, GC-MS, and NMR techniques. In the presence of a high amount of α-tocopherol, the autoxidation of CLA methyl ester yields six kinetically-controlled conjugated diene monohydroperoxides and is diastereoselective in favour of one particular geometric isomer as a pair of enantiomers. The primary autoxidation products produced from the two major CLA isomers include new positional isomers of conjugated diene monohydroperoxides, the 8-, 10-, 12-, and 14-hydroperoxyoctadecadienoates. Furthermore, two of these new positional isomers have an unusual structure for a cis,trans lipid hydroperoxide where the allylic methine carbon is adjacent to the cis instead of the usual trans double bond. The 1H and 13C NMR spectra of nine isomeric methyl hydroxyoctadecadienoates and of ten isomeric methyl hydroperoxyoctadecadienoates including the unusual cis,trans hydroperoxides, i.e. Me 8-OOH-9c,11t and Me 14-OOH-10t,12c, were fully assigned with the aid of 2D NMR spectroscopy. The assigned NMR data enabled determination of the effects of the hydroxyl and hydroperoxyl groups on the carbon chemical shifts of CLA isomers, identification of diagnostic signals, and determination of chemical shift differences of the olefinic resonances that may help with the assignment of structure to as yet unknown lipid hydroperoxides either as hydroxy derivatives or as intact hydroperoxides. A mechanism for the hydroperoxide pathway of CLA autoxidation in the presence of a high amount of α-tocopherol was proposed based on the characterized primary products, their relative distribution, and theoretical calculations. This is an important step forward in CLA research, where exact mechanisms for the autoxidation of CLA have not been presented before. Knowledge of these hydroperoxide formation steps is of crucial importance for understanding the subsequent steps and the different pathways of the autoxidation of CLA. Moreover, a deeper understanding of the autoxidation mechanisms is required for ensuring the safety of CLA-rich foods. Knowledge of CLA oxidation and how it differs from the oxidation of nonconjugated polyunsaturated fatty acids may also be the key to understanding the biological mechanisms of CLA activity.

LFA-1 Integrin beta2 Chain Phosphorylation Regulates Protein Interactions and Mediates Signals in T Cells

Integrins are heterodimeric transmembrane adhesion receptors composed of alpha- and beta-subunits and they are vital for the function of multicellular organisms. Integrin-mediated adhesion is a complex process involving both affinity regulation and coupling to the actin cytoskeleton. Integrins also function as bidirectional signaling devices, regulating cell adhesion and migration after inside-out signaling, but also signal into the cell to regulate growth, differentiation and apoptosis after ligand binding. The LFA-1 integrin is exclusively expressed in leukocytes and is of fundamental importance for the function of the immune system. The LFA-1 integrins have short intracellular tails, which are devoid of catalytic activity. These cytoplasmic domains are important for integrin regulation and both the alpha and beta chain become phosphorylated. The alpha chain is constitutively phosphorylated, but the beta chain becomes phosphorylated on serine and functionally important threonine residues only after cell activation. The cytoplasmic tails of LFA-1 bind to many cytoskeletal and signaling proteins regulating numerous cell functions. However, the molecular mechanisms behind these interactions have been poorly understood. Phosphorylation of the cytoplasmic tails of the LFA-1 integrin could provide a mechanism to regulate integrin-mediated cytoskeletal interactions and take part in T cell signaling. In this study, the effects of phosphorylation of LFA-1 integrin cytoplasmic tails on different cellular functions were examined. Site-specific phosphorylation of both the alpha- and beta-chains of the LFA-1 was shown to have a role in the regulation of the LFA-1 integrin.Alpha-chain Ser1140 is needed for integrin conformational changes after chemokine- or integrin ligand-induced activation or after activation induced by active Rap1, whereas beta-chain binds to 14-3-3 proteins through the phosphorylated Thr758 and mediates cytoskeletal reorganization. Thr758 phosphorylation also acts as a molecular switch to inhibit filamin binding and allows 14-3-3 protein binding to integrin cytoplasmic domain, and it was also shown to lead to T cell adhesion, Rac-1/Cdc42 activation and expression of the T cell activation marker CD69, indicating a signaling function for Thr758 phosphorylation in T cells. Thus, phosphorylation of the cytoplasmic tails of LFA-1 plays an important role in different functions of the LFA-1 integrin in T cells. It is of vital importance to study the mechanisms and components of integrin regulation since leukocyte adhesion is involved in many functions of the immune system and defects in the regulation of LFA-1 contributes to auto-immune diseases and fundamental defects in the immune system.

A systematic-ecological approach to Baltic Sea ice studies of algae and protists

The seasonal occurrence of sea ice that annually covers almost half the Baltic Sea area provides a unique habitat for halo- and cold temperature-tolerant extremophiles. Baltic Sea ice biology has more than 100 years of tradition that began with the floristic observation of species by the early pioneers using light microscopic techniques that were the only thing available at the time. Since the discovery of life within sea ice, more technologies have become available for taxonomy. Electron microscopy and genetic evidence have been used to identify sea ice biota revealing increased numbers of taxa. Meanwhile ecologists have used light microscopic cell enumeration in addition to the chemical and physical properties of sea ice in attempts to explain the food web structure of sea ice and its functions. Thus, during the Baltic winter, the sea ice hosts more abundant and diverse microbial communities than the water column beneath it. These communities are typically dominated by autotrophic diatoms together with a diverse assortment of dinoflagellates, auto- and heterotrophic flagellates, ciliates, metazoan rotifers and bacteria, which are mostly responsible for the recycling of nutrients. This thesis comprises ecological and systematic studies. In addition to the results of the previous studies carried out on landfast ice, the data presented here provide new insight into the spatial distribution of pelagial sea ice, which has remained largely unexplored. The studies reveal spatial heterogeneity in the pelagial sea ice of the Gulf of Bothnia. There were mismatches in chlorophyll-a concentrations and in photosynthetic efficiencies of the communities studied. The temporal succession was followed and experimental studies performed investigating the community responses towards increased or decreased light in landfast ice in the Gulf of Finland. The systematic studies carried out with established dinoflagellate cultures revealed a new resting cyst belonging to common sea ice dinoflagellate, Scrippsiella hangoei (Schiller) Larsen 1995. The cyst can be used to explain the overwintering of this species during prolonged periods of darkness. The dissimilarities and similarities in the material isolated from the sea ice called for description of a new subspecies Heterocapsa arctica ssp. frigida. The cells obtained in the cultured material were unlike those of the previously described species, necessitating description of ssp. frigida. As a result of its own unique habitus, the subspecies had been noted by Finnish taxonomists during the past three decades and thus its annual occurrence and geographical distribution in the Baltic Sea. This illustrates how combining ecology and systematics increases our understanding of organisms.

Ecology, population genetics and conservation of the African violet

The ongoing rapid fragmentation of tropical forests is a major threat to global biodiversity. This is because many of the tropical forests are so-called biodiversity 'hotspots', areas that host exceptional species richness and concentrations of endemic species. Forest fragmentation has negative ecological and genetic consequences for plant survival. Proposed reasons for plant species' loss in forest fragments are, e.g., abiotic edge effects, altered species interactions, increased genetic drift, and inbreeding depression. To be able to conserve plants in forest fragments, the ecological and genetic processes that threaten the species have to be understood. That is possible only after obtaining adequate information on their biology, including taxonomy, life history, reproduction, and spatial and genetic structure of the populations. In this research, I focused on the African violet (genus Saintpaulia), a little-studied conservation flagship from the Eastern Arc Mountains and Coastal Forests hotspot of Tanzania and Kenya. The main objective of the research was to increase understanding of the life history, ecology and population genetics of Saintpaulia that is needed for the design of appropriate conservation measures. A further aim was to provide population-level insights into the difficult taxonomy of Saintpaulia. Ecological field work was conducted in a relatively little fragmented protected forest in the Amani Nature Reserve in the East Usambara Mountains, in northeastern Tanzania, complemented by population genetic laboratory work and ecological experiments in Helsinki, Finland. All components of the research were conducted with Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei, which forms a taxonomically controversial population complex in the study area. My results suggest that Saintpaulia has good reproductive performance in forests with low disturbance levels in the East Usambara Mountains. Another important finding was that seed production depends on sufficient pollinator service. The availability of pollinators should thus be considered in the in situ management of threatened populations. Dynamic population stage structures were observed suggesting that the studied populations are demographically viable. High mortality of seedlings and juveniles was observed during the dry season but this was compensated by ample recruitment of new seedlings after the rainy season. Reduced tree canopy closure and substrate quality are likely to exacerbate seedling and juvenile mortality, and, therefore, forest fragmentation and disturbance are serious threats to the regeneration of Saintpaulia. Restoration of sufficient shade to enhance seedling establishment is an important conservation measure in populations located in disturbed habitats. Long-term demographic monitoring, which enables the forecasting of a population s future, is also recommended in disturbed habitats. High genetic diversities were observed in the populations, which suggest that they possess the variation that is needed for evolutionary responses in a changing environment. Thus, genetic management of the studied populations does not seem necessary as long as the habitats remain favourable for Saintpaulia. The observed high levels of inbreeding in some of the populations, and the reduced fitness of the inbred progeny compared to the outbred progeny, as revealed by the hand-pollination experiment, indicate that inbreeding and inbreeding depression are potential mechanisms contributing to the extinction of Saintpaulia populations. The relatively weak genetic divergence of the three different morphotypes of Saintpaulia ionantha ssp. grotei lend support to the hypothesis that the populations in the Usambara/lowlands region represent a segregating metapopulation (or metapopulations), where subpopulations are adapting to their particular environments. The partial genetic and phenological integrity, and the distinct trailing habit of the morphotype 'grotei' would, however, justify its placement in a taxonomic rank of its own, perhaps in a subspecific rank.

Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

On the behaviour of some physical parameterization methods in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models

Modern-day weather forecasting is highly dependent on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as the main data source. The evolving state of the atmosphere with time can be numerically predicted by solving a set of hydrodynamic equations, if the initial state is known. However, such a modelling approach always contains approximations that by and large depend on the purpose of use and resolution of the models. Present-day NWP systems operate with horizontal model resolutions in the range from about 40 km to 10 km. Recently, the aim has been to reach operationally to scales of 1 4 km. This requires less approximations in the model equations, more complex treatment of physical processes and, furthermore, more computing power. This thesis concentrates on the physical parameterization methods used in high-resolution NWP models. The main emphasis is on the validation of the grid-size-dependent convection parameterization in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and on a comprehensive intercomparison of radiative-flux parameterizations. In addition, the problems related to wind prediction near the coastline are addressed with high-resolution meso-scale models. The grid-size-dependent convection parameterization is clearly beneficial for NWP models operating with a dense grid. Results show that the current convection scheme in HIRLAM is still applicable down to a 5.6 km grid size. However, with further improved model resolution, the tendency of the model to overestimate strong precipitation intensities increases in all the experiment runs. For the clear-sky longwave radiation parameterization, schemes used in NWP-models provide much better results in comparison with simple empirical schemes. On the other hand, for the shortwave part of the spectrum, the empirical schemes are more competitive for producing fairly accurate surface fluxes. Overall, even the complex radiation parameterization schemes used in NWP-models seem to be slightly too transparent for both long- and shortwave radiation in clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, simple cloud correction functions are tested. In case of longwave radiation, the empirical cloud correction methods provide rather accurate results, whereas for shortwave radiation the benefit is only marginal. Idealised high-resolution two-dimensional meso-scale model experiments suggest that the reason for the observed formation of the afternoon low level jet (LLJ) over the Gulf of Finland is an inertial oscillation mechanism, when the large-scale flow is from the south-east or west directions. The LLJ is further enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. A three-dimensional HIRLAM experiment, with a 7.7 km grid size, is able to generate a similar LLJ flow structure as suggested by the 2D-experiments and observations. It is also pointed out that improved model resolution does not necessary lead to better wind forecasts in the statistical sense. In nested systems, the quality of the large-scale host model is really important, especially if the inner meso-scale model domain is small.

Evaluation and modelling of the spatial and temporal variability of particulate matter in urban areas

This thesis contains three subject areas concerning particulate matter in urban area air quality: 1) Analysis of the measured concentrations of particulate matter mass concentrations in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) in different locations in relation to traffic sources, and at different times of year and day. 2) The evolution of traffic exhaust originated particulate matter number concentrations and sizes in local street scale are studied by a combination of a dispersion model and an aerosol process model. 3) Some situations of high particulate matter concentrations are analysed with regard to their meteorological origins, especially temperature inversion situations, in the HMA and three other European cities. The prediction of the occurrence of meteorological conditions conducive to elevated particulate matter concentrations in the studied cities is examined. The performance of current numerical weather forecasting models in the case of air pollution episode situations is considered. The study of the ambient measurements revealed clear diurnal variation of the PM10 concentrations in the HMA measurement sites, irrespective of the year and the season of the year. The diurnal variation of local vehicular traffic flows seemed to have no substantial correlation with the PM2.5 concentrations, indicating that the PM10 concentrations were originated mainly from local vehicular traffic (direct emissions and suspension), while the PM2.5 concentrations were mostly of regionally and long-range transported origin. The modelling study of traffic exhaust dispersion and transformation showed that the number concentrations of particles originating from street traffic exhaust undergo a substantial change during the first tens of seconds after being emitted from the vehicle tailpipe. The dilution process was shown to dominate total number concentrations. Minimal effect of both condensation and coagulation was seen in the Aitken mode number concentrations. The included air pollution episodes were chosen on the basis of occurrence in either winter or spring, and having at least partly local origin. In the HMA, air pollution episodes were shown to be linked to predominantly stable atmospheric conditions with high atmospheric pressure and low wind speeds in conjunction with relatively low ambient temperatures. For the other European cities studied, the best meteorological predictors for the elevated concentrations of PM10 were shown to be temporal (hourly) evolutions of temperature inversions, stable atmospheric stability and in some cases, wind speed. Concerning the weather prediction during particulate matter related air pollution episodes, the use of the studied models were found to overpredict pollutant dispersion, leading to underprediction of pollutant concentration levels.

Determinants of institutional care at older ages in Finland

Väitöskirjassa selvitettiin ikäihmisten laitoshoitoon siirtymisen todennäköisyyttä ja sen taustoja kansainvälisesti ainutlaatuisen rekisteriaineiston avulla. Selvitettäviä asioita olivat eri sairauksien, sosioekonomisten tekijöiden, puolison olemassaolon ja leskeksi jäämisen yhteys laitoshoitoon siirtymiseen yli 65-vuotiailla suomalaisilla. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin, että dementia, Parkinsonin tauti, aivohalvaus, masennusoireet ja muut mielenterveysongelmat, lonkkamurtuma sekä diabetes lisäsivät ikäihmisten todennäköisyyttä siirtyä laitoshoitoon yli 50 prosentilla, kun muut sairaudet ja sosiodemografiset tekijät oli otettu huomioon. Korkeat tulot vähensivät laitoshoidon todennäköisyyttä, kun taas puutteellinen asuminen (ilman peseytymistiloja tai keskus- tai sähkölämmitystä) sekä erittäin puutteellinen asuminen (ilman lämmintä vettä, vesijohtoa, viemäriä tai vesivessaa) lisäsivät todennäkösyyttä, kun muut sosiodemografiset tekijät, sairaudet ja asuinalue oli huomioitu. Kerrostalon hissittömyys ei ollut yhteydessä laitoshoidon todennäköisyyteen. Todennäköisyys siirtyä laitoshoitoon oli jostain syystä korkeampaa niillä ikäihmisillä, jotka asuivat vuokralla ja matalampaa omakotitalossa asuvilla ja niillä, joilla oli auto. Puolison olemassaolo vähensi ja leskeksi jääminen lisäsi laitoshoidon todennäköisyyttä huomattavasti. Todennäköisyys oli erityisen suuri, yli kolminkertainen, kun puolison kuolemasta oli kulunut enintään kuukausi verrattuna niihin, joiden puoliso oli elossa. Todennäköisyys laski, kun puolison kuolemasta kului aikaa. Miesten ja naisten tulokset olivat samansuuntaisia. Korkeat tulot tai koulutus eivät suojanneet riskiltä joutua laitoshoitoon puolison kuoltua. Puolison kuolema näyttää lisäävän hoidon tarvetta, kun kotona ei ole enää puolisoa tukemassa ja huolehtimassa kodin askareista. Laitoshoidon tarve vähenee, jos ja kun lesket ajan kuluessa oppivat elämään yksin. Toisaalta tutkimustulokset saattavat viitata myös siihen, että kaikkein huonokuntoisimmat lesket, jotka eivät pärjää yksin asuessaan, siirtyvät laitoshoitoon hyvin nopeasti puolison kuoltua. Tutkimuksessa oli mukana yhteensä yli 280 000 yli 65-vuotiasta henkilöä, joiden pitkäaikaiseen laitoshoitoon siirtymistä seurattiin tammikuusta 1998 syyskuuhun 2003. Laitoshoidoksi määriteltiin terveyskeskuksissa, sairaaloissa ja vanhainkodeissa tai vastaavissa yksiköissä tapahtuva pitkäaikainen hoito, joka kesti yli 90 vuorokautta tai oli vahvistettu pitkäaikaishoidon päätöksellä. Tutkimuksessa käytetty aineisto koottiin väestörekistereistä, sosiaali- ja terveydenhuollon rekistereistä ja lääkerekistereistä.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Transcription factor GATA4 and apoptotic TRAIL pathway in granulosa cell function and tumors

Normal growth and development require the precise control of gene expression. Transcription factors are proteins that regulate gene expression by binding specific sequences of DNA. Abnormalities in transcription are implicated in a variety of human diseases, including cancer, endocrine disorders and birth defects. Transcription factor GATA4 has emerged as an important regulator of normal development and function in a variety of endoderm- and mesoderm- derived tissues, including gut, heart and several endocrine organs, such as gonads. Mice harboring a null mutation of Gata4 gene die during embryogenesis due to failure in heart formation, complicating the study of functional role of GATA4 in other organs. However, the expression pattern of GATA4 suggests it may play a role in the regulation of ovarian granulosa cell development, function and apoptosis. This premise is supported by in vitro studies showing that GATA4 regulates several steroidogenic enzymes as well as auto-, para- and endocrine signaling molecules important for granulosa cell function. This study assessed the in vivo role of GATA4 for granulosa cell function by utilizing two genetically modified mouse strains. The findings in the GATA4 deficient mice included delayed puberty, impaired fertility and signs of diminished estrogen production. At the molecular level, the GATA4 deficiency leads to attenuated expression of central steroidogenic genes, Steroidogenic acute regulatory protein (StAR), Side-chain cleavage (SCC), and aromatase as a response to stimulations with exogenous gonadotropins. Taken together, these suggest GATA4 is necessary for the normal ovarian function and female fertility. Programmed cell death, apoptosis, is a crucial part of normal ovarian development and function. In addition, disturbances in apoptosis have been implicated to pathogenesis of human granulosa cell tumors (GCTs). Apoptosis is controlled by extrinsic and intrinsic pathways. The intrinsic pathway is regulated by members of Bcl-2 family, and its founding member, the anti-apoptotic Bcl-2, is known to be important for granulosa cell survival. This study showed that the expression levels of GATA4 and Bcl-2 correlate in the human GCTs and that GATA4 regulates Bcl-2 expression, presumably by directly binding to its promoter. In addition, disturbing GATA4 function was sufficient to induce apoptosis in cultured GCT- derived cell line. Taken together, these results suggest GATA4 functions as an anti-apoptotic factor in GCTs. The extrinsic apoptotic pathway is controlled by the members of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) superfamily. An interesting ligand of this family is TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL), possessing a unique ability to selectively induce apoptosis in malignant cells. This study characterized the previously unknown expression of TRAIL and its receptors in both developing and adult human ovary, as well as in malignant granulosa cell tumors. TRAIL pathway was shown to be active in GCTs suggesting it may be a useful tool in treating these malignancies. However, more studies are required to assess the function of TRAIL pathway in normal ovaries. In addition to its ability to induce apoptosis in GCTs, this study revealed that GATA4 protects these malignancies from TRAIL-induced apoptosis. GATA4 presumably exerts this effect by regulating the expression of anti-apoptotic Bcl-2. This is of particular interest as high expression of GATA4 is known to correlate to aggressive GCT behavior. Thus, GATA4 seems to protect GCTs from endogenous TRAIL by upregulating anti-apoptotic factors such as Bcl-2.