Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

The North in the Old English Orosius : A Geographical Narrative in Context

This doctoral dissertation examines the description of the North as it appears in the Old English Orosius (OE Or.) in the form of the travel accounts by Ohthere and Wulfstan and a catalogue of peoples of Germania. The description is discussed in the context of ancient and early medieval textual and cartographic descriptions of the North, with a special emphasis on Anglo-Saxon sources and the intellectual context of the reign of King Alfred (871-899). This is the first time that these sources, a multidisciplinary approach and secondary literature, also from Scandinavia and Finland, have been brought together. The discussion is source-based, and archaeological theories and geographical ideas are used to support the primary evidence. This study belongs to the disciplines of early medieval literature and (cultural) history, Anglo-Saxon studies, English philology, and historical geography. The OE Or. was probably part of Alfred s educational campaign, which conveyed royal ideology to the contemporary elite. The accounts and catalogue are original interpolations which represent a unique historical source for the Viking Age. They contain unparalleled information about peoples and places in Fennoscandia and the southern Baltic and sailing voyages to the White Sea, the Danish lands, and the Lower Vistula. The historical-philological analysis reveals an emphasis on wealth and property, rank, luxury goods, settlement patterns, and territorial divisions. Trade is strongly implied by the mentions of central places and northern products, such as walrus ivory. The references to such peoples as the Finnas, the Cwenas, and the Beormas appear in connection with information about geography and subsistence in the far North. Many of the topics in the accounts relate to Anglo-Saxon aristocratic culture and interests. The accounts focus on the areas associated with the Northmen, the Danes and the Este. These areas resonated in the Anglo-Saxon geographical imagination: they were curious about the northern margin of the world, their own continental ancestry and the geography of their homeland of Angeln, and they had an interest in the Goths and their connection with the southern Baltic in mythogeography. The non-judgemental representation of the North as generally peaceful and relatively normal place is related to Alfredian and Orosian ideas about the unity and spreading of Christendom, and to desires for unity among the Germani and for peace with the Vikings, who were settling in England. These intellectual contexts reflect the innovative and organizational forces of Alfred s reign. The description of the North in the OE Or. can be located in the context of the Anglo-Saxon worldview and geographical mindset. It mirrors the geographical curiosity expressed in other Anglo-Saxon sources, such as the poem Widsith and the Anglo-Saxon mappa mundi. The northern section of this early eleventh-century world map is analyzed in detail here for the first time. It is suggested that the section depicts the North Atlantic and the Scandinavian Peninsula. The survey of ancient and early medieval sources provides a comparative context for the OE Or. In this material, produced by such authors as Strabo, Pliny, Tacitus, Jordanes, and Rimbert, the significance of the North was related to the search for and definition of the northern edge of the world, universal accounts of the world, the northern homeland in the origin stories of the gentes, and Carolingian expansion and missionary activity. These frameworks were transmitted to Anglo-Saxon literary culture, where the North occurs in the context of the definition of Britain s place in the world.

Arkeologia, historialliset kartat ja paikkatieto

This licentiate thesis is composed of three parts, of which the parts 2 and 3 have been published elsewhere. Part 1 deals with the research history of large-scaled historical maps in Finland. The research done in four disciplines – archaeology, history, art history and geography – is summarized. Compared to the other disciplines, archaeology is characterized by its deep engagement with the location. Because archaeology studies different aspects of the past through material culture, it is the only discipline in which the concrete remains portrayed on the maps are “dug up”. For the archaeologist, historical maps are not merely historical documents with written information and drawings in scale, but actual maps which can be connected with the physical features they were made to illustrate in the first place. This aspect of historical maps is discussed in the work by looking at the early (17th and 18th century) urban cartographic material of two Finnish towns, Savonlinna and Vehkalahti-Hamina. In both cases, the GIS-based relocating of the historical maps highlights new aspects in the early development of the towns. Part 1 ends with a section in which the contents of the entire licentiate thesis are summarized. Part 2 is a peer reviewed article published in English. This article deals with the role of historical maps converted into GIS in archaeological surveys made in Finnish post-medieval towns (16th and 17th centuries). It is based on the surveys made by the author between 2000 and 2003 and introduces a new method for the archaeological surveying of post-medieval towns with wooden houses. The role of archaeology in the sphere of urban research is discussed. The article emphasizes that the methods used in studying the development of southern European towns with stone houses cannot be adequately applied to the wooden towns of the north. Part 3 is a monograph written in Finnish. It discusses large-scaled historical maps and the methods for producing digital spatial information based on historical maps. Since the late 1990’s, archaeological research in Finland has been increasingly directed towards the historical period. As a result, historical cartography has emerged as one of the central sources of information for the archaeologist, too. The main theme of this work is the need for using historical maps as real maps which, surprisingly, has been uncommon in the historical sciences. Projecting historical maps to the very place they were made to illustrate is essential to understanding the maps. This is self-evident for the archaeologist, who is accustomed to studying the material past, but less so to researchers in other historical disciplines that concentrate on written and visual sources of information. With the help of GIS, the historical maps can be concretely linked to the places they were originally made to illustrate. In doing so, and equipped with a cartographic comprehension, new observations can be made and questions asked, which supplement and occasionally challenge the prevailing views.

Oral health behaviour, conditions and care among dentate elderly patients in Lithuania: preventive aspects

The present cross-sectional study aimed to assess oral health behaviour, dental and periodontal conditions, dental care, and their relationships among elderly dentate patients in Lithuania. The target population in the study were dentate patients aged 60 and older attending public dental services in Kedainiai, Lithuania. The data collection took place between the autumn of 1999 and the winter of 2001. Data were collected by means of a self-administered questionnaire for all (n=174) and a clinical examination targeting about half of the subjects (n=100). The questionnaire inquired about oral health behaviour, the life-first and also the most recent dental treatments, sources on and self-assessed knowledge of oral self-care, a self-reported number of teeth, and socio-demographic information. The clinical examination included basic dental and periodontal conditions. A total of 82 women and 92 men completed the questionnaire; their mean age was 69.2 and their average number of teeth was 16.2 (CI 95% 15.4-17.1). In all, 25% had 21 or more teeth and 32% indicated wearing removable dentures. The oral health behaviour, the participants reported, was poor: 30% reported twice daily toothbrushing, 57% responded that they always use fluoride toothpaste, 19% indicated daily interdental cleaning, nearly all said they take sugar in their coffee and tea, and 30% indicated going for check-ups. As the main source of information on oral self-care, the subjects indicated health professionals (82%), followed by social contacts (72%), broadcasted media (58%), and printed media (42%). A total of 34% assessed their knowledge of oral self-care as good, and their self-assessed knowledge correlated (r=0.52) with professional guidance they had received about oral self-care. In their most recent treatment, conservative (39%) and non-conservative (34%) treatments dominated, and preventive ones were the least reported (7%). Regarding guidance in oral self-care, 54% reported having received such about toothbrushing, 32% about interdental cleaning, and 33% had been given visual information. Clinical examinations revealed the presence of plaque, calculus, bleeding on probing and deepened pockets in all of the subjects; 70% of the subjects were diagnosed with pockets of 6mm and deeper, 94% with caries, and 73% with overhangs of restorations. Those subjects assessing their knowledge of oral self-care as good and reporting a higher intensity of guidance in oral self-care as received, indicated practicing the recommended oral self-care more frequently. Twice daily toothbrushing was associated with good self-assessed knowledge of oral self-care (OR 4.1, p<0.001) and a university education (OR 5.6, p<0.001). Those subjects with better oral health behaviour had a greater number of teeth. Having 21 or more teeth was associated with good self-assessed knowledge of oral self-care (OR 4.1, p=0.03). Better periodontal conditions were associated with a higher frequency of toothbrushing. The presence of periodontal pockets of 6mm and deeper was associated with the level of self-assessed knowledge of oral self-care being below good (OR=3.0, p=0.04) and the level of dental cleanliness being poor (OR=2.7, p=0.02). To conclude, oral health behaviour and conditions call for improvement in elderly subjects in Lithuania. To improve the oral health of their elderly dentate patients, dentists should apply all the available tools of chair-side prevention and active guidance. The latter would be an effective means of updating the knowledge of oral self-care and supporting recommended oral health behaviour. A preventive approach should be strongly emphasized in countries with limited resources for oral health care, such as Lithuania. Author’s address: Sonata Vyšniauskaite, Department of Oral Public Health, Institute of Dentistry, University of Helsinki, P.O.Box 41, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland. E-mail: sonata.vysniauskaite@helsinki.fi

Suunnittelunäkemys metsäorganisaatioissa ja sen vaikutus tietojärjestelmälle asetettaviin vaatimuksiin

Department of Forest Resource Management in the University of Helsinki has in years 2004?2007 carried out so-called SIMO -project to develop a new generation planning system for forest management. Project parties are organisations doing most of Finnish forest planning in government, industry and private owned forests. Aim of this study was to find out the needs and requirements for new forest planning system and to clarify how parties see targets and processes in today's forest planning. Representatives responsible for forest planning in each organisation were interviewed one by one. According to study the stand-based system for managing and treating forests continues in the future. Because of variable data acquisition methods with different accuracy and sources, and development of single tree interpretation, more and more forest data is collected without field work. The benefits of using more specific forest data also calls for use of information units smaller than tree stand. In Finland the traditional way to arrange forest planning computation is divided in two elements. After updating the forest data to present situation every stand unit's growth is simulated with different alternative treatment schedule. After simulation, optimisation selects for every stand one treatment schedule so that the management program satisfies the owner's goals in the best possible way. This arrangement will be maintained in the future system. The parties' requirements to add multi-criteria problem solving, group decision support methods as well as heuristic and spatial optimisation into system make the programming work more challenging. Generally the new system is expected to be adjustable and transparent. Strict documentation and free source code helps to bring these expectations into effect. Variable growing models and treatment schedules with different source information, accuracy, methods and the speed of processing are supposed to work easily in system. Also possibilities to calibrate models regionally and to set local parameters changing in time are required. In future the forest planning system will be integrated in comprehensive data management systems together with geographic, economic and work supervision information. This requires a modular method of implementing the system and the use of a simple data transmission interface between modules and together with other systems. No major differences in parties' view of the systems requirements were noticed in this study. Rather the interviews completed the full picture from slightly different angles. In organisation the forest management is considered quite inflexible and it only draws the strategic lines. It does not yet have a role in operative activity, although the need and benefits of team level forest planning are admitted. Demands and opportunities of variable forest data, new planning goals and development of information technology are known. Party organisations want to keep on track with development. One example is the engagement in extensive SIMO-project which connects the whole field of forest planning in Finland.

The Miocene of Western Asia; Fossil mammals at the crossroads of faunal provinces and climate regimes

Being at the crossroads of the Old World continents, Western Asia has a unique position through which the dispersal and migration of mammals and the interaction of faunal bioprovinces occurred. Despite its critical position, the record of Miocene mammals in Western Asia is sporadic and there are large spatial and temporal gaps between the known fossil localities. Although the development of the mammalian faunas in the Miocene of the Old World is well known and there is ample evidence for environmental shifts in this epoch, efforts toward quantification of habitat changes and development of chronofaunas based on faunal compositions were mostly neglected. Advancement of chronological, paleoclimatological, and paleogeographical reconstruction tools and techniques and increased numbers of new discoveries in recent decades have brought the need for updating and modification of our level of understanding. We under took fieldwork and systematic study of mammalian trace and body fossils from the northwestern parts of Iran along with analysis of large mammal data from the NOW database. The data analysis was used to study the provinciality, relative abundance, and distribution history of the closed- and open-adapted taxa and chronofaunas in the Miocene of the Old World and Western Asia. The provinciality analysis was carried out, using locality clustering, and the relative abundance of the closed- and open-adapted taxa was surveyed at the family level. The distribution history of the chronofaunas was studied, using faunal resemblance indices and new mapping techniques, together with humidity analysis based on mean ordinated hypsodonty. Paleoichnological studies revealed the abundance of mammalian footprints in several parts of the basins studied, which are normally not fossiliferous in terms of body fossils. The systematic study and biochronology of the newly discovered mammalian fossils in northwestern Iran indicates their close affinities with middle Turolian faunas. Large cranial remains of hipparionine horses, previously unknown in Iran and Western Asia, are among the material studied. The initiation of a new field project in the famous Maragheh locality also brings new opportunities to address questions regarding the chronology and paleoenvironment of this classical site. Provinciality analysis modified our previous level of understandings, indicating the interaction of four provinces in Western Asia. The development of these provinces was apparently due to the presence of high mountain ranges in the area, which affected the dispersal of mammals and also climatic patterns. Higher temperatures and possibly higher co2 levels in the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum apparently favored the development of the closed forested environments that supported the dominance of the closed-adapted taxa. The increased seasonality and the progressive cooling and drying of the midlatitudes toward the Late Miocene maintained the dominance of open-adapted faunas. It appears that the late Middle Miocene was the time of transition from a more forested to a less forested world. The distribution history of the closed- and open-adapted chronofaunas shows the presence of cosmopolitan and endemic faunas in Western Asia. The closed-adapted faunas, such as the Arabian chronofauna of the late Early‒early Middle Miocene, demonstrated a rapid buildup and gradual decline. The open-adapted chronofaunas, such as the Late Miocene Maraghean fauna, climaxed gradually by filling the opening environments and moving in response to changes in humidity patterns. They abruptly declined due to demise of their favored environments. The Siwalikan chronofauna of the early Late Miocene remained endemic and restricted through all its history. This study highlights the importance of field investigations and indicates that new surveys in the vast areas of Western Asia, which are poorly sampled in terms of fossil mammal localities, can still be promising. Clustering of the localities supports the consistency of formerly known patterns and augments them. Although the quantitative approach to relative abundance history of the closed- and open-adapted mammals harks back to more than half a century ago, it is a novel technique providing robust results. Tracking the history of the chronofaunas in space and time by means of new computational and illustration methods is also a new practice that can be expanded to new areas and time spans.

Kohti leikkaussalin tuloksellista toiminnanohjausta

Background: The aging population is placing increasing demands on surgical services, simultaneously with a decreasing supply of professional labor and a worsening economic situation. Under growing financial constraints, successful operating room management will be one of the key issues in the struggle for technical efficiency. This study focused on several issues affecting operating room efficiency. Materials and methods: The current formal operating room management in Finland and the use of performance metrics and information systems used to support this management were explored using a postal survey. We also studied the feasibility of a wireless patient tracking system as a tool for managing the process. The reliability of the system as well as the accuracy and precision of its automatically recorded time stamps were analyzed. The benefits of a separate anesthesia induction room in a prospective setting were compared with the traditional way of working, where anesthesia is induced in the operating room. Using computer simulation, several models of parallel processing for the operating room were compared with the traditional model with respect to cost-efficiency. Moreover, international differences in operating room times for two common procedures, laparoscopic cholecystectomy and open lung lobectomy, were investigated. Results: The managerial structure of Finnish operating units was not clearly defined. Operating room management information systems were found to be out-of-date, offering little support to online evaluation of the care process. Only about half of the information systems provided information in real time. Operating room performance was most often measured by the number of procedures in a time unit, operating room utilization, and turnover time. The wireless patient tracking system was found to be feasible for hospital use. Automatic documentation of the system facilitated patient flow management by increasing process transparency via more available and accurate data, while lessening work for staff. Any parallel work flow model was more cost-efficient than the traditional way of performing anesthesia induction in the operating room. Mean operating times for two common procedures differed by 50% among eight hospitals in different countries. Conclusions: The structure of daily operative management of an operating room warrants redefinition. Performance measures as well as information systems require updating. Parallel work flows are more cost-efficient than the traditional induction-in-room model.

Change detection and controlling forest information using multi-temporal Landsat TM imagery.

A method was developed for relative radiometric calibration of single multitemporal Landsat TM image, several multitemporal images covering each others, and several multitemporal images covering different geographic locations. The radiometricly calibrated difference images were used for detecting rapid changes on forest stands. The nonparametric Kernel method was applied for change detection. The accuracy of the change detection was estimated by inspecting the image analysis results in field. The change classification was applied for controlling the quality of the continuously updated forest stand information. The aim was to ensure that all the manmade changes and any forest damages were correctly updated including the attribute and stand delineation information. The image analysis results were compared with the registered treatments and the stand information base. The stands with discrepancies between these two information sources were recommended to be field inspected.

Tavallisuudesta tyylikkyyteen? : Sukupuoli ja maku kodinmuutosohjelmissa

The study focuses on the Finnish home makeover shows Inno (2004 , Nelonen) and Kodin kääntöpiiri (2001 2005; YLE TV2) and their episodes broadcast in spring 2004. The research material also includes the websites of both shows and messages concerning Inno from an online discussion forum. As people decorate their homes and reflect on them, they engage in negotiations of taste and in the construction of the ideal self. The main question of the study is: how are representations of the gendered self produced in home makeover shows? The broader theoretical and methodological context of the study is based on intersectionality, or simultaneous study of different identity categories. In this study, the main focus is on the intersections of gender, class and sexuality. Hence, the secondary research question is: how do ways of doing gender intersect with producing the ideas of class and sexuality in the representations of home makeover shows? The theoretical framework of the study combines Judith Butler s theory of gender performativity and Pierre Bourdieu s theory of taste. The analysis is founded upon a close reading focusing on the details and ambiguous meanings contained in the televisual representation. Home makeover shows are explored as a part of contemporary television culture, which is characterised by a significant increase in the number of both television channels and global television formats, as well as the hybridisation of programme types. Researchers on lifestyle television have paid attention to male designers and their ability to reconstruct meanings related to domesticity and home decoration as feminine spheres. The dissertation contributes to this discussion by analysing the representations of the male interior decorator in Inno and the four female interior decorators in Kodin kääntöpiiri. The focus is on the professional self and how it is both gendered and defined as an arbiter of taste. The programme concepts produce the impression that the makeover homes and their occupants are ordinary . The manufactured sense of ordinariness often conceals differences between the participants. One argument of the study is that the ordinariness of participants on lifestyle television should not be taken for granted without further reflection on the implications of labeling something as ordinary. Updating of interior decoration in home makeover shows can be interpreted as an area of doing gender that requires deliberation, effort, expert knowledge and a sufficient budget. The ideal lay decorator is portrayed as culturally omnivorous, brave and receptive to new ideas. The ability to reflect on ways of representing masculinity and femininity through decoration is also implied. In home makeover shows, greater self-awareness regarding the ways in which gender is produced does not lead to repeating gender differently. The idea of normative heterosexuality is in a hegemonic position in the representations of the participants. In Inno and Kodin kääntöpiiri questions of class are not made explicit. However, the idea of class is produced indirectly e.g. by describing the apartments and houses of the participants, by discussing their hobbies or interest in cultural products. In Inno, home decoration is primarily depicted as an individualistic consumer choice, while in Kodin kääntöpiiri it is often defined as a way to strengthen the ties of nuclear families. In Kodin kääntöpiiri, the ethos of familism is combined with pleasures gained from consumption and DIY activities. As a whole, the multidisciplinary study indicates a great number of differences between the two shows.