Applications of Treatment Effects Models and Semiparametric Estimation

This thesis is composed of an introductory chapter and four applications each of them constituting an own chapter. The common element underlying each of the chapters is the econometric methodology. The applications rely mostly on the leading econometric techniques related to estimation of causal effects. The first chapter introduces the econometric techniques that are employed in the remaining chapters. Chapter 2 studies the effects of shocking news on student performance. It exploits the fact that the school shooting in Kauhajoki in 2008 coincided with the matriculation examination period of that fall. It shows that the performance of men declined due to the news of the school shooting. For women the similar pattern remains unobserved. Chapter 3 studies the effects of minimum wage on employment by employing the original Card and Krueger (1994; CK) and Neumark and Wascher (2000; NW) data together with the changes-in-changes (CIC) estimator. As the main result it shows that the employment effect of an increase in the minimum wage is positive for small fast-food restaurants and negative for big fast-food restaurants. Therefore, it shows that the controversial positive employment effect reported by CK is overturned for big fast-food restaurants and that the NW data are shown, in contrast to their original results, to provide support for the positive employment effect. Chapter 4 employs the state-specific U.S. data (collected by Cohen and Einav [2003; CE]) on traffic fatalities to re-evaluate the effects of seat belt laws on the traffic fatalities by using the CIC estimator. It confirms the CE results that on the average an implementation of a mandatory seat belt law results in an increase in the seat belt usage rate and a decrease in the total fatality rate. In contrast to CE, it also finds evidence on compensating-behavior theory, which is observed especially in the states by the border of the U.S. Chapter 5 studies the life cycle consumption in Finland, with the special interest laid on the baby boomers and the older households. It shows that the baby boomers smooth their consumption over the life cycle more than other generations. It also shows that the old households smoothed their life cycle consumption more as a result of the recession in the 1990s, compared to young households.

Non-small cell lung cancer : studies on pathogenesis, tumour targeting and treatment outcomes

Lung cancer accounts for more cancer-related deaths than any other cancer. In Finland, five-year survival ranges from 8% to 13%. The main risk factor for lung cancer is long-term cigarette smoking, but its carcinogenesis requires several other factors. The aim of the present study was to 1) evaluate post-operative quality of life, 2) compare clinical outcomes between minimally invasive and conventional open surgery, 3) evaluate the role of oxidative stress in the carcinogenesis of non-small lung cancer (NSCLC), and 4) to identify and characterise targeted agents for therapeutic and diagnostic use in surgery. For study I, pneumonectomy patients replied to 15D quality of life and baseline dyspnea questionnaires. Study III involved a prospective quality of life assessment using the 15D questionnaire after lobectomy or bi-lobectomy. Study IV was a retrospective comparison of clinical outcomes between 212 patients treated with open thoracotomy and 116 patients who underwent a minimally invasive technique. Study II measured parameters of oxidative metabolism (myeloperoxidase activity, glutathione content and NADPH oxidase activity) and DNA adducts. Study V employed the phage display method and identified a core motif for homing peptides. This method served in cell-binding, cell-localisation, and biodistribution studies. Following both pneumonectomy and lobectomy, NSCLC patients showed significantly decreased long-term quality of life. No significant correlation was noted between post-operative quality of life and pre-operative pulmonary function tests. Women suffered more from increased dyspnea after pneumonectomy which was absent after lobectomy or bi-lobectomy. Patients treated with video-assisted thoracoscopy showed significantly decreased morbidity and shorter periods of hospitalization than did open surgery patients. This improvement was achieved even though the VATS patients were older and suffered more comorbid conditions and poorer pulmonary function. No significant differences in survival were noted between these two groups. An increase in NADPH oxidase activity was noted in tumour samples of both adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. This increase was independent from myeloperoxidase activity. Elevated glutathione content was noted in tumour tissue, especially in adenocarcinoma. After panning the clinical tumour samples with the phage display method, an amino acid sequence of ARRPKLD, the Thx, was chosen for further analysis. This method proved selective of tumour tissue in both in vitro and in vivo cell-binding assay, and biodistribution showed tumour accumulation. Because of the significantly reduced quality of life following pneumonectomy, other operative strategies should be implemented as an alternative (e.g. sleeve-lobectomy). To treat this disease, implementation of a minimally invasive surgical technique is safe, and the results showed decreased morbidity and a shorter period of hospitalisation than with thoracotomy. This technique may facilitate operative treatment of elderly patients with comorbid conditions who might otherwise be considered inoperable. Simultaneous exposure to oxidative stress and altered redox states indicates the important role of oxidative stress in the pathogenesis and malignant transformation of NSCLC. The studies showed with great specificity and with favourable biodistribution that Thx peptide is specific to NSCLC tumours. Thx thus shows promise in imaging, targeted therapy, and monitoring of treatment response.

PERFECT Stroke : PERFormance, Effectiveness, and Costs of treatment episodes in Stroke

Stroke is a major cause of death and disability, incurs significant costs to healthcare systems, and inflicts severe burden to the whole society. Stroke care in Finland has been described in several population-based studies between 1967 and 1998, but not since. In the PERFECT Stroke study presented here, a system for monitoring the Performance, Effectiveness, and Costs of Treatment episodes in Stroke was developed in Finland. Existing nationwide administrative registries were linked at individual patient level with personal identification numbers to depict whole episodes of care, from acute stroke, through rehabilitation, until the patients went home, were admitted to permanent institutional care, or died. For comparisons in time and between providers, patient case-mix was adjusted for. The PERFECT Stroke database includes 104 899 first-ever stroke patients over the years 1999 to 2008, of whom 79% had ischemic stroke (IS), 14% intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 7% subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). A 18% decrease in the age and sex adjusted incidence of stroke was observed over the study period, 1.8% improvement annually. All-cause 1-year case-fatality rate improved from 28.6% to 24.6%, or 0.5% annually. The expected median lifetime after stroke increased by 2 years for IS patients, to 7 years and 7 months, and by 1 year for ICH patients, to 4 years 5 months. No change could be seen in median SAH patient survival, >10 years. Stroke prevalence was 82 000, 1.5% of total population of Finland, in 2008. Modern stroke center care was shown to be associated with a decrease in both death and risk of institutional care of stroke patients. Number needed to treat to prevent these poor outcomes at one year from stroke was 32 (95% confidence intervals 26 to 42). Despite improvements over the study period, more than a third of Finnish stroke patients did not have access to stroke center care. The mean first-year healthcare cost of a stroke patient was ~20 000 , and among survivors ~10 000 annually thereafter. Only part of this cost was incurred by stroke, as the same patients cost ~5000 over the year prior to stroke. Total lifetime costs after first-ever stroke were ~85 000 . A total of 1.1 Billion , 7% of all healthcare expenditure, is used in the treatment of stroke patients annually. Despite a rapidly aging population, the number of new stroke patients is decreasing, and the patients are more likely to survive. This is explained in part by stroke center care, which is effective, and should be made available for all stroke patients. It is possible, in a suitable setting with high-quality administrative registries and a common identifier, to avoid the huge workload and associated costs of setting up a conventional stroke registry, and still acquire a fairly comprehensive dataset on stroke care and outcome.

Improving outcome of childhood bacterial meningitis by simplified treatment : Experience from Angola

Background Acute bacterial meningitis (BM) continues to be an important cause of childhood mortality and morbidity, especially in developing countries. Prognostic scales and the identification of risk factors for adverse outcome both aid in assessing disease severity. New antimicrobial agents or adjunctive treatments - except for oral glycerol - have essentially failed to improve BM prognosis. A retrospective observational analysis found paracetamol beneficial in adult bacteraemic patients, and some experts recommend slow β-lactam infusion. We examined these treatments in a prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. Patients and methods A retrospective analysis included 555 children treated for BM in 2004 in the infectious disease ward of the Paediatric Hospital of Luanda, Angola. Our prospective study randomised 723 children into four groups, to receive a combination of cefotaxime infusion or boluses every 6 hours for the first 24 hours and oral paracetamol or placebo for 48 hours. The primary endpoints were 1) death or severe neurological sequelae (SeNeSe), and 2) deafness. Results In the retrospective study, the mortality of children with blood transfusion was 23% (30 of 128) vs. without blood transfusion 39% (109 of 282; p=0.004). In the prospective study, 272 (38%) of the children died. Of those 451 surviving, 68 (15%) showed SeNeSe, and 12% (45 of 374) were deaf. Whereas no difference between treatment groups was observable in primary endpoints, the early mortality in the infusion-paracetamol group was lower, with the difference (Fisher s exact test) from the other groups at 24, 48, and 72 hours being significant (p=0.041, 0.0005, and 0.005, respectively). Prognostic factors for adverse outcomes were impaired consciousness, dyspnoea, seizures, delayed presentation, and absence of electricity at home (Simple Luanda Scale, SLS); the Bayesian Luanda Scale (BLS) also included abnormally low or high blood glucose. Conclusions New studies concerning the possible beneficial effect of blood transfusion, and concerning longer treatment with cefotaxime infusion and oral paracetamol, and a study to validate our simple prognostic scales are warranted.

Mid-urethral slings for treatment of stress urinary incontinence : long- and mid-term follow-up

Urinary incontinence is a common problem, affecting one third of the women at least at some time during their lives. The prevalence of urinary incontinence increases with advancing age, and the everyday impact of incontinence on women and on health services is enormous. Urinary incontinence is usually divided into three different subtypes, of which stress urinary incontinence (SUI) is the most common. Surgical treatment is often needed to cure SUI, and modern mid-urethral sling procedures give the possibility to cure this condition with a low risk of adverse events, a problem often associated with the so-called traditional incontinence operations. Life expectancy among women in Western countries has grown beyond 80 years of age. Long-term efficacy of treatment options for urinary incontinence therefore becomes an important issue in a world with limited eco-nomic resources. The purpose of the present study was to prospectively evaluate the long-term efficacy and safety of the first minimally invasive mid-urethral tape procedure, the Tension-free Vaginal Tape (TVT) procedure. The long-term (5-year) follow-up results of the TVT procedure as a repeat operation af-ter an unsuccessful mid-urethral tape operation were studied and the reasons for failure of the first operation were analyzed. Another purpose was to compare the original TVT procedure with a newer modification, the Tension-free Vaginal Tape Obturator (TVT-O) procedure within a multi-centre, randomized context in order to find out possible differences between these procedures re-garding efficacy and complications and the effects on symptoms of urgency. The first study of the present thesis is a prospective, Nordic, three-centre follow-up study of 90 women suffering from SUI, who were treated by means of the TVT procedure. The mean follow-up time was more than eleven years, and the study is the first to be published in connection with more than ten years of follow-up. The second study is a retrospective analysis of 26 women who were treated with a repeat TVT procedure after an unsuccessful primary mid-urethral tape procedure. The third and fourth studies concern 273 women in seven centres in Finland who were ran-domly assigned to the TVT and TVT-O procedures, the 3-year follow-up results of which are pre-sented in this thesis. After eleven years of follow-up, 90% of the women had a negative cough stress test result and a negative 24-h pad test result. The subjective cure rate measured as the women s global impression of cure was 77%, the rate of improvement 20%, and only 3% thought that the treatment had failed. No late-onset adverse effects were found. The repeat TVT procedure was successful in 75% of the cases when women who were cured and women who were significantly improved were included. The reasons for failure of the first operation could be separated into four different groups: tape material-related, operation technique-related, concomitant illness-related and a group with no identifiable reason. There were no intra-operative complications during the repeat operation. In the randomized trial comparing the TVT with the TVT-O procedure a cough stress test results were negative in 94.6% and 89.5% of the women in the two groups, respectively, after a 3-year follow-up period. There were no statistical differences in the cure rate or the rate of complications be-tween the two procedures. Symptoms of urgency were analyzed more closely and the main finding was that the prevalence of urgency symptoms decreased significantly after both mid-urethral sling procedures. The TVT operation was found to be an effective and safe procedure even after eleven years of follow-up. Long-term follow-up after a repeat TVT procedure revealed that the TVT procedure can well be considered after an unsuccessful mid-urethra tape procedure, because 75% of the patients showed significantly improvement of their incontinence. The TVT and TVT-O procedures showed no statistically significant differences in efficacy and rate of complications after three years of follow-up. In most cases these procedures alleviate preoperative symptoms of urgency and the risk of developing de novo urgency is low.

The effectiveness of infrainguinal percutaneous transluminal angioplasty in the treatment of critical limb ischaemia

Critical chronic lower limb ischaemia (CLI) is the most severe form of peripheral arterial disease. Even though the treatment of CLI has evolved during the last decade, CLI is still associated with considerable morbidity, mortality and a decreased quality of life, in addition to a large financial impact on society. ---- Bypass surgery has traditionally been considered the approach of choice to treat CLI patients in order to avoid amputation. However, there are increasing data on the efficacy of endovascular revascularization procedures, such as percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA), to achieve good leg salvage rates as well. Data gathered on all the 2,054 CLI patients revascularized at the Helsinki University Central Hospital between 2000 and 2007 were retrospectively analyzed. This patient cohort was used to compare the results of infrainguinal PTA and bypass surgery as well as to investigate predictors of failure after PTA. This study showed that infrainguinal PTA and bypass surgery yielded rather similar results in terms of survival, amputation-free survival and freedom from any re-intervention. When the femoropoliteal segment was treated, leg salvage was significantly better in the bypass surgery group, whereas no significant difference was observed between the two treatment methods when the revascularization extended to the infrapopliteal segment. PTA resulted in a significantly lower freedom from surgical re-interventions when compared to surgical revascularization. In this study the most important predictors of poor outcome after PTA for CLI were cardiac morbidity, nonambulatory status upon hospital arrival, and gangrene as a manifestation of CLI. Thus, when feasible, PTA seems to be a valid alternative for bypass surgery in the treatment of CLI provided that active redo-surgery is utilized. The optimal revascularization strategy should always be sought for each CLI patient individually considering the clinical state of the leg, the occlusive lesions to be treated, co-morbidities, life-expectancy, and the availability of a suitable vein for bypass.

Combination antiretroviral therapy -associated lipodystrophy : insights into pathogenesis and treatment

Introduction: Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has decreased morbidity and mortality of individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). Its use, however, is associated with adverse effects which increase the patients risk of conditions such as diabetes and coronary heart disease. Perhaps the most stigmatizing side effect is lipodystrophy, i.e., the loss of subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) in the face, limbs and trunk while fat accumulates intra-abdominally and dorsocervically. The pathogenesis of cART-associated lipodystrophy is obscure. Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) have been implicated to cause lipoatrophy via mitochondrial toxicity. There is no known effective treatment for cART-associated lipodystrophy during unchanged antiretroviral regimen in humans, but in vitro data have shown uridine to abrogate NRTI-induced toxicity in adipocytes. Aims: To investigate whether i) cART or lipodystrophy associated with its use affect arterial stiffness; ii) lipoatrophic SAT is inflamed compared to non-lipoatrophic SAT; iii) abdominal SAT from patients with compared to those without cART-associated lipoatrophy differs with respect to mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) content, adipose tissue inflammation and gene expression, and if NRTIs stavudine and zidovudine are associated with different degree of changes; iv) lipoatrophic abdominal SAT differs from preserved dorsocervical SAT with respect to mtDNA content, adipose tissue inflammation and gene expression in patients with cART-associated lipodystrophy and v) whether uridine can revert lipoatrophy and the associated metabolic disturbances in patients on stavudine or zidovudine based cART. Subjects and methods: 64 cART-treated patients with (n=45) and without lipodystrophy/-atrophy (n=19) were compared cross-sectionally. A marker of arterial stiffness, heart rate corrected augmentation index (AgIHR), was measured by pulse wave analysis. Body composition was measured by magnetic resonance imaging and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and liver fat content by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Gene expression and mtDNA content in SAT were assessed by real-time polymerase chain reaction and microarray. Adipose tissue composition and inflammation were assessed by histology and immunohistochemistry. Dorsocervical and abdominal SAT were studied. The efficacy and safety of uridine for the treatment of cART-associated lipoatrophy were evaluated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled 3-month trial in 20 lipoatrophic cART-treated patients. Results: Duration of antiretroviral treatment and cumulative exposure to NRTIs and protease inhibitors, but not the presence of cART-associated lipodystrophy, predicted AgIHR independent of age and blood pressure. Gene expression of inflammatory markers was increased in SAT of lipodystrophic as compared to non-lipodystrophic patients. Expression of genes involved in adipogenesis, triglyceride synthesis and glucose disposal was lower and of those involved in mitochondrial biogenesis, apoptosis and oxidative stress higher in SAT of patients with than without cART-associated lipoatrophy. Most changes were more pronounced in stavudine-treated than in zidovudine-treated individuals. Lipoatrophic SAT had lower mtDNA than SAT of non-lipoatrophic patients. Expression of inflammatory genes was lower in dorsocervical than in abdominal SAT. Neither depot had characteristics of brown adipose tissue. Despite being spared from lipoatrophy, dorsocervical SAT of lipodystrophic patients had lower mtDNA than the phenotypically similar corresponding depot of non-lipodystrophic patients. The greatest difference in gene expression between dorsocervical and abdominal SAT, irrespective of lipodystrophy status, was in expression of homeobox genes that regulate transcription and regionalization of organs during embryonal development. Uridine increased limb fat and its proportion of total fat, but had no effect on liver fat content and markers of insulin resistance. Conclusions: Long-term cART is associated with increased arterial stiffness and, thus, with higher cardiovascular risk. Lipoatrophic abdominal SAT is characterized by inflammation, apoptosis and mtDNA depletion. As mtDNA is depleted even in non-lipoatrophic dorsocervical SAT, lipoatrophy is unlikely to be caused directly by mtDNA depletion. Preserved dorsocervical SAT of patients with cART-associated lipodystrophy is less inflamed than their lipoatrophic abdominal SAT, and does not resemble brown adipose tissue. The greatest difference in gene expression between dorsocervical and abdominal SAT is in expression of transcriptional regulators, homeobox genes, which might explain the differential susceptibility of these adipose tissue depots to cART-induced toxicity. Uridine is able to increase peripheral SAT in lipoatrophic patients during unchanged cART.

Optimal Use of Treatment Modalities and Treatment Results of Osteosarcoma and Soft Tissue Sarcomas

Soft tissue sarcomas are malignant tumours of mesenchymal origin. Because of infiltrative growth pattern, simple enucleation of the tumour causes a high rate of local recurrence. Instead, these tumours should be resected with a rim of normal tissue around the tumour. Data on the adequate margin width are scarce. At Helsinki University Central Hospital (HUCH) a multidisciplinary treatment group started in 1987. Surgical resection with a wide margin (2.5 cm) is the primary aim. In case of narrower margin radiation therapy is necessary. The role of adjuvant chemotherapy remains unclear. Our aims were to study local control by the surgical margin and to develop a new prognostic tool to aid decision-making on which patients should receive adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremity or the trunk wall referred to HUCH during 1987-2002 form material in Studies I and II. External validation material comes from the Lund university sarcoma registry. The smallest surgical margin of at least 2.5 centimetres yielded local control of 89 per cent at five years. Amputation rate was 9 per cent. The proposed prognostic model with necrosis, vascular invasion, size on a continuous scale, depth, location and grade worked well both in Helsinki material and in the validation material, and it also showed good calibration. Based on the present study, we recommend the smallest surgical margin of 2-3 centimetres in soft tissue sarcoma irrespective of grade. Improvement in local control was present but modest in margins wider than 1 centimetre. In cases where gaining a wider margin would lead to a considerable loss of function, smaller margin is to be considered combined to radiation therapy. Patients treated with inadequate margins should be offered radiation therapy irrespective of tumour grade. Our new prognostic model to estimate 10-year survival probability in patients with soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities or trunk wall showed good dicscrimination and calibration. For time being the prognostic model is available for scientific use and further validations. In the future, the model may aid in clinical decision-making. For operable osteosarcoma, neoadjuvant multidrug chemotherapy followed by delayed surgery and multidrug adjuvant chemotherapy is the treatment of choice. Overall survival rates at five years are approximately 75 per cent in modern trials with classical osteosarcoma. All patients diagnosed and reported to the Finnish Cancer Registry with osteosarcoma in Finland during 1971-2005 form the material in Studies III and IV. Limb-salvage rate increased from 23 per cent to 78 per cent during 1971-2005. The 10-year sarcoma-specific survival for the whole study population improved from 32 per cent to 62 per cent. It was 75 per cent for patients with a local high-grade osteosarcoma of the extremity diagnosed during 1991-2005. This study outlines the improved prognosis of osteosarcoma patients in Finland with modern chemotherapy. The 10-year survival rates are good also in an international scale. Nonetheless, their limb-salvage rate remains inferior to those seen for highly selected patient series. Overall, the centralisation of osteosarcoma treatment would most likely improve both survival and limb-salvage rates even further.

Myoblast Sheet Transplantation for Treatment of Heart Failure after Myocardial Infarction

Heart failure is a common, severe, and progressive condition associated with high mortality and morbidity. Because of population-aging in the coming decades, heart failure is estimated to reach epidemic proportions. Current medical and surgical treatments have reduced mortality, but the prognosis for patients has remained poor. Transplantation of skeletal myoblasts has raised hope of regenerating the failing heart and compensating for lost cardiac contractile tissue. In the present work, we studied epicardial transplantation of tissue-engineered myoblast sheets for treatment of heart failure. We employed a rat model of myocardial infarction-induced acute and chronic heart failure by left anterior descending coronary artery ligation. We then transplanted myoblast sheets genetically modified to resist cell death after transplantation by expressing antiapoptotic gene bcl2. In addition, we evaluated the regenerative capacity of myoblast sheets expressing the cardioprotective cytokine hepatocyte growth factor in a rat chronic heart failure model. Furthermore, we utilized in vitro cardiomyocyte and endothelial cell culture models as well as microarray gene expression analysis to elucidate molecular mechanisms mediating the therapeutic effects of myoblast sheet transplantation. Our results demonstrate that Bcl2-expression prolonged myoblast sheet survival in rat hearts after transplantation and induced secretion of cardioprotective, proangiogenic cytokines. After acute myocardial infarction, these sheets attenuated left ventricular dysfunction and myocardial damage, and they induced therapeutic angiogenesis. In the chronic heart failure model, inhibition of graft apoptosis by Bcl-2 improved cardiac function, supported survival of cardiomyocytes in the infarcted area, and induced angiogenesis in a vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 1- and 2-dependent mechanism. Hepatocyte growth factor-secreting myoblast sheets further enhanced the angiogenic efficacy of myoblast sheet therapy. Moreover, myoblast-secreted paracrine factors protected cardiomyocytes against oxidative stress in an epidermal growth factor receptor- and c-Met dependent manner. This protection was associated with induction of antioxidative genes and activation of the unfolded protein response. Our results provide evidence that inhibiting myoblast sheet apoptosis can enhance the sheets efficacy for treating heart failure after acute and chronic myocardial infarction. Furthermore, we show that myoblast sheets can serve as vehicles for delivery of growth factors, and induce therapeutic angiogenesis in the chronically ischemic heart. Finally, myoblasts induce, in a paracine manner, a cardiomyocyte-protective response against oxidative stress. Our study elucidates novel mechanisms of myoblast transplantation therapy, and suggests effective means to improve this therapy for the benefit of the heart failure patient.

Biomarkers in acute respiratory failure

Acute respiratory failure (ARF) is the most common type of organ failure leading to the need for intensive care. It is often secondary to acute lung injury (ALI) and its more severe form, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARF, and especially ALI and ARDS, cause increased morbidity, and mortality rates remain high (up to 40%). These disorders are characterised by inflammatory reaction and tissue damage. In some cases, inflammation continues and leads to an overwhelming repair process with ongoing fibrosis, accompanied by organ dysfunction and eventually a loss of function. Measuring the magnitude of the inflammation, and the repair process, would theoretically offer information concerning outcome. Early identification of patients whose disease process is likely to proceed unfavourably, would help clinicians to optimise their treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology of ARF, its treatment, and outcome in Finland, with special interest in biomarkers, and their value in the prediction of mortality. Altogether, 958 adult patients treated with ventilatory support were prospectively included in this study during an eight week period in 2007 in 25 intensive care units. Plasma aminoterminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) was assessed in 602 patients, and plasma cell-free DNA in 580 patients, to evaluate their prognostic value in ARF. Markers of collagen metabolism were studied in longitudinal serum samples in 68 patients in order to evaluate their evolution in ARF and the association to multiple organ dysfunction (MOD). Ventilatory support was used in 39% of all ICU patients. The estimated incidence of ARF was 149.5/100 000 per year. Median tidal volumes used were higher than recommended. Overall mortality at 90 days was 31%. Plasma NT-pro-BNP and cell-free DNA were highly increased in the majority of patients. Both markers were independent predictors of 90-day mortality, but their discriminative power was at most moderate when used separately. The mortality was highest in those patients, in whom both biomarkers were over their separate cut-off values. Thus, combined use of these biomarkers may increase their clinical value in the mortality prediction. The markers of collagen metabolism changed significantly over time in surviving patients. None of these markers did associate with MOD in these patients.