Analysts' Accuracy of Estimation and the Relative Trading Volume

This study contributes to the neglect effect literature by looking at the relative trading volume in terms of value. The results for the Swedish market show a significant positive relationship between the accuracy of estimation and the relative trading volume. Market capitalisation and analyst coverage have in prior studies been used as proxies for neglect. These measures however, do not take into account the effort analysts put in when estimating corporate pre-tax profits. I also find evidence that the industry of the firm influence the accuracy of estimation. In addition, supporting earlier findings, loss making firms are associated with larger forecasting errors. Further, I find that the average forecast error increased in the year 2000 – in Sweden.

Applications of Treatment Effects Models and Semiparametric Estimation

This thesis is composed of an introductory chapter and four applications each of them constituting an own chapter. The common element underlying each of the chapters is the econometric methodology. The applications rely mostly on the leading econometric techniques related to estimation of causal effects. The first chapter introduces the econometric techniques that are employed in the remaining chapters. Chapter 2 studies the effects of shocking news on student performance. It exploits the fact that the school shooting in Kauhajoki in 2008 coincided with the matriculation examination period of that fall. It shows that the performance of men declined due to the news of the school shooting. For women the similar pattern remains unobserved. Chapter 3 studies the effects of minimum wage on employment by employing the original Card and Krueger (1994; CK) and Neumark and Wascher (2000; NW) data together with the changes-in-changes (CIC) estimator. As the main result it shows that the employment effect of an increase in the minimum wage is positive for small fast-food restaurants and negative for big fast-food restaurants. Therefore, it shows that the controversial positive employment effect reported by CK is overturned for big fast-food restaurants and that the NW data are shown, in contrast to their original results, to provide support for the positive employment effect. Chapter 4 employs the state-specific U.S. data (collected by Cohen and Einav [2003; CE]) on traffic fatalities to re-evaluate the effects of seat belt laws on the traffic fatalities by using the CIC estimator. It confirms the CE results that on the average an implementation of a mandatory seat belt law results in an increase in the seat belt usage rate and a decrease in the total fatality rate. In contrast to CE, it also finds evidence on compensating-behavior theory, which is observed especially in the states by the border of the U.S. Chapter 5 studies the life cycle consumption in Finland, with the special interest laid on the baby boomers and the older households. It shows that the baby boomers smooth their consumption over the life cycle more than other generations. It also shows that the old households smoothed their life cycle consumption more as a result of the recession in the 1990s, compared to young households.

The determinants of sexually transmitted infections among reproductive age women in St. Petersburg, Estonia and Finland

OBJECTIVES: Sexually transmitted infections' (STIs) rate vary in St. Petersburg, Estonia and Finland; the aim was to compare the determinants of self-reported sexually transmitted infections in these areas. METHODS: Data from four population-based questionnaire surveys were used (Finland in 1992 and 1999; St. Petersburg in 2003; Estonia in 2004). With the exception of the 1992 Finnish survey (interview) all were postal surveys, with 1,070 respondents in Finland (78 and 52% response rates), 1,147 (68%) in St. Petersburg, and 5,190 (54%) in Estonia. RESULTS: Risky sexual behaviours were equally common in the three areas and the determinants were the same. Women with an STIs history more often had had their first sexual intercourse when aged under 18, had not used condom during first intercourse, had a high number of lifetime or previous year sexual partners. However, marital status and education were not similar determinants. Cohabiting and well-educated women in Finland were more likely to have STIs while in other areas the associations found were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Risky behaviour predicts STIs, but does not explain the varying rates of STIs between areas.

Studies on Stone Age Housepits in Fennoscandia (4000 - 2000 cal BC) : Changes in ground plan, site location and degree of sedentism

Housepits have a remarkably short research history as compared to Fennoscandian archaeological research on the Stone Age in general. The current understanding of the numbers and the distribution of Stone Age housepits in the Nordic countries has, for the most part, been shaped by archaeological studies carried out over the last twenty to thirty years. The main subjects of this research are Neolithic housepits, which are archaeological remains of semi-subterranean pithouses. This dissertation consists of five peer-reviewed articles and a synthesis paper. The articles deal with the development of housepits as seen in the data gathered from Finland (the Lake Saimaa area and south-eastern Finland) and Russia (the Karelian Isthmus). This synthesis expands the discussion of the changes observed in the Papers to include Fennoscandian housepit research as a whole. Certain changes in the size, shape, environmental location, and clustering of housepits extended into various cultures and ecological zones in northern Fennoscandia. Previously, the evolution of housepits has been interpreted to have been caused by the adaptation of Neolithic societies to prevailing environmental circumstances or to re-organization following contacts with the agrarian Corded Ware/Battle Axe Cultures spreading to North. This dissertation argues for two waves of change in the pithouse building tradition. Both waves brought with them certain changes in the pithouses themselves and in the practices of locating the dwellings in the environment/landscape. The changes in housepits do not go hand in hand with other changes in material culture, nor are the changes restricted to certain ecological environments. Based on current information, it appears that the changes relate primarily to the spread of new concepts of housing and possibly to new technology, as opposed to representing merely a local response to environmental factors. This development commenced already before the birth of the Corded Ware/Battle Axe Cultures. Therefore, the changes are argued to have resulted from the spreading of new ideas through the same networks that actively distributed commodities, exotic goods, and raw materials over vast areas between the southern Baltic Sea, the north-west Russian forest zone, and Fennoscandia.

Charred seeds in Mikkeli Orijärvi : A study of subsistence strategies of an Iron Age settlement in East Finland

In this study the over 350 macrofossil samples, containing over 2300 charred plant remains from an Iron Age settlement containing fossil fields in Mikkeli Orijärvi Kihlinpelto, were studied archaeobotanically. The aim was to get more information about subsistence strategies, especially agriculture and study differences in the plant combinations in the different structures and use the archaeobotanical theory to interpret these structures. The methodological question was to study the taphonomy of the charred plant material. The results gave a diverse impression of the agriculture and subsistence strategies of the settlement in Orijärvi, where barley was the most important cereal with rye, wheat and oat cultivated as minor crops. The arable weed assemblage indicates that the fields were situated in different kinds of soils and the crops were cultivated when different kind of weather conditions were prevailing. Ergot was found with the cereals, and it was growing on some of the arable crops and it also indicates wet climate. Hemp and flax were cultivated and wild plants were collected. The meadow and wetland plants found in the material derive most probably from animal fodder. Tubers of bulbous oat-grass were interesting, because they are usually found in graves. Comparison with other Iron Age settlements and graves indicates that the plant material found from the ancient field layers derives most probably from dwellings and graves, which were taken into cultivation.

Determinants of Cognitive Impairment in Old Age and Their Genetic Architecture

Cognitive health is of central importance for independent and balanced old age, while memory disorders represent the leading cause of intensive and long-term care among the Finnish elderly. The aims of this study were to analyse the effect of height, body mass index, weight change, metabolic conditions and coffee drinking in midlife on cognitive performance in old age among a sample of 2606 Finnish twins aged 65 years or older who had participated in a telephone interview to assess their cognitive status. Since coffee drinking associates with several metabolic conditions and Finns are known to be the greatest consumers of coffee in the world, the heritability and stability of coffee drinking was analysed in the whole Older Finnish Twin Cohort (n=10716). In order to investigate the association between height and cognitive performance in a population with more supportive childhood living conditions, a total of 2161 Danish twins were included in this study. A greater height was found to clearly associate with better cognitive performance in Finnish subjects, but less so among the Danish sample, which may reflect the childhood environmental differences between these cohorts. In the Finnish subjects, there was greater variance in cognitive performance among shorter subjects, and environmental factors were found to play a greater role in their cognitive performance, whereas the cognitive performance of taller participants was mainly explained by genetic factors. Midlife metabolic variables that were found to be significantly associated with a poorer cognitive performance in old age included a higher body mass index and three metabolic conditions: cardiovascular disease, hypertension and, most significantly of all, diabetes. Moreover, both weight gain and loss, even to a lesser degree than suggested previously, were found to be associated with poorer cognition. Furthermore, evidence of a causal relationship between midlife cardiovascular disease and cognitive performance in old age was demonstrated among discordant twin pairs. Conversely, no effect of coffee drinking in midlife on cognitive performance in old age was observed, although coffee drinking was demonstrated to be stable in the study population. The heritability of coffee drinking was found to differ across sexes and age groups, being 51% in men and 52% in women in the whole study population. This study supports the contention that cognitive performance in old age reflects the effects of multiple genetic and environmental exposures, including their complex interactions during the life-span. The demonstrated associations and evidence of a causal pathway between potentially preventable exposures and poorer cognitive performance highlight the importance of preventive medicine.

Estimation of cutting volume with three inventory methods for harvest planning in Canadian boreal forests.

Two methods of pre-harvest inventory were designed and tested on three cutting sites containing a total of 197 500 m3 of wood. These sites were located on flat-ground boreal forests located in northwestern Quebec. Both methods studied involved scaling of trees harvested to clear the road path one year (or more) prior to harvest of adjacent cut-blocks. The first method (ROAD) considers the total road right-of-way volume divided by the total road area cleared. The resulting volume per hectare is then multiplied by the total cut-block area scheduled for harvest during the following year to obtain the total estimated cutting volume. The second method (STRATIFIED) also involves scaling of trees cleared from the road. However, in STRATIFIED, log scaling data are stratified by forest stand location. A volume per hectare is calculated for each stretch of road that crosses a single forest stand. This volume per hectare is then multiplied by the remaining area of the same forest stand scheduled for harvest one year later. The sum of all resulting estimated volumes per stand gives the total estimated cutting-volume for all cut-blocks adjacent to the studied road. A third method (MNR) was also used to estimate cut-volumes of the sites studied. This method represents the actual existing technique for estimating cutting volume in the province of Quebec. It involves summing the cut volume for all forest stands. The cut volume is estimated by multiplying the area of each stand by its estimated volume per hectare obtained from standard stock tables provided by the governement. The resulting total estimated volume per cut-block for all three methods was then compared with the actual measured cut-block volume (MEASURED). This analysis revealed a significant difference between MEASURED and MNR methods with the MNR volume estimate being 30 % higher than MEASURED. However, no significant difference from MEASURED was observed for volume estimates for the ROAD and STRATIFIED methods which respectively had estimated cutting volumes 19 % and 5 % lower than MEASURED. Thus the ROAD and STRATIFIED methods are good ways to estimate cut-block volumes after road right-of-way harvest for conditions similar to those examined in this study.

Voiko tämän syödä? : Myrkyllisten ja syötävien kasvien tunnistaminen, oppiminen ja opettaminen

The purpose of the research was to determine how well Finnish children and youngsters in different ages recognize poisonous and eatable wild plant species and to which characteristics they pay attention to when identifying plants. The purpose was also to find out, how well the pupils and students can estimate if the wild plants are either poisonous or eatable. The goal was to gather knowledge about what factors explain these recognition and estimation skills. Also information was wanted about attitudes of children and youngsters towards recognizing and learning the poisonous and eatable wild plants. The research was made on subjects of 48 children and youngsters from grade 6 in primary school, grade 8 in lower- secondary school and vocational school. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used. A plant recognition test, where 38 pictures on plants was presented, was made for the all subjects. The subjects were requested to name the plants and classify them to be either poisonous or eatable. In addition six students were interviewed from each class, altogether 18 subjects. The themes of the interviews were the attitudes towards eatable and poisonous wild plants and to learn to recognize species. During the interview pictures of plants were looked at and the subjects told which characteristics they pay attention to when trying to recognize it. The results showed that on average wild plants were recognized insufficiently. Standard variation in responses was large in all classes researched. The subjects got better results in classifying of the plants to be either poisonous or eatable than in naming the plants. This research shows that even when a subject cannot name a plant it is still possible for the subject to classify the plant to be either poisonous or eatable. Gender and being an immigrant explained the recognition skills of poisonous and eatable plants so that girls were somewhat better to recognize plant species and native Finns recognized poisonous and eatable plants better that immigrants. Age did not explain the skills to recognize species directly, since students in lower- secondary school recognized the poisonous and eatable plants better than primary school and vocational school students. In skills to estimate plants poisonous or eatability there was no difference according to gender, age, or immigrant background. The subjects considered the skills to recognize poisonous and eatable plants important. Learning to recognize plants at school was not considered interesting however. Since the recognition of plants in neighborhood belongs to tasks of general education it is important to think about how the teaching could be made interesting. According to findings of this study, especially the recognition of poisonous plants was considered important by the subjects. This knowledge as well as teaching about possibilities to utilize plants could be used as a way to motivate and teach the students. Avainsanat Nyckelord - Keywords Plant species recognition, recognition of poisonous plants, recognition of eatable plants, plant species education

Does the age of fine root carbon indicate the age of fine roots in boreal forests?

To test the reliability of the radiocarbon method for determining root age, we analyzed fine roots (originating from the years 1985 to 1993) from ingrowth cores with known maximum root age (1 to 6 years old). For this purpose, three Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands were selected from boreal forests in Finland. We analyzed root 14C age by the radiocarbon method and compared it with the above-mentioned known maximum fine root age. In general, ages determined by the two methods (root 14C age and ingrowth core root maximum age) were in agreement with each other for roots of small diameter (<0.5mm). By contrast, in most of the samples of fine roots of larger diameter (1.5-2mm), the 14C age of root samples of 1987-89 exceeded the ingrowth core root maximum age by 1-10 years. This shows that these roots had received a large amount of older stored carbon from unknown sources in addition to atmospheric CO2 directly from photosynthesis. We conclude that the 14C signature of fine roots, especially those of larger diameter, may not always be indicative of root age, and that further studies are needed concerning the extent of possible root uptake of older carbon and its residence time in roots. Keywords: fine root age, Pinus sylvestris, radiocarbon, root carbon, ingrowth cores, tree ring

Water quality estimation by optical remote sensing in boreal lakes

In lake-rich regions, the gathering of information about water quality is challenging because only a small proportion of the lakes can be assessed each year by conventional methods. One of the techniques for improving the spatial and temporal representativeness of lake monitoring is remote sensing from satellites and aircrafts. The experimental material included detailed optical measurements in 11 lakes, air- and spaceborne remote sensing measurements with concurrent field sampling, automatic raft measurements and a national dataset of routine water quality measurements from over 1100 lakes. The analyses of the spatially high-resolution airborne remote sensing data from eutrophic and mesotrophic lakes showed that one or a few discrete water quality observations using conventional monitoring can yield a clear over- or underestimation of the overall water quality in a lake. The use of TM-type satellite instruments in addition to routine monitoring results substantially increases the number of lakes for which water quality information can be obtained. The preliminary results indicated that coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) can be estimated with TM-type satellite instruments, which could possibly be utilised as an aid in estimating the role of lakes in global carbon budgets. Based on the results of reflectance modelling and experimental data, MERIS satellite instrument has optimal or near-optimal channels for the estimation of turbidity, chlorophyll a and CDOM in Finnish lakes. MERIS images with a 300 m spatial resolution can provide water quality information in different parts of large and medium-sized lakes, and in filling in the gaps resulting from conventional monitoring. Algorithms that would not require simultaneous field data for algorithm training would increase the amount of remote sensing-based information available for lake monitoring. The MERIS Boreal Lakes processor, trained with the optical data and concentration ranges provided by this study, enabled turbidity estimations with good accuracy without the need for algorithm correction with field measurements, while chlorophyll a and CDOM estimations require further development of the processor. The accuracy of interpreting chlorophyll a via semi empirical algorithms can be improved by classifying lakes prior to interpretation according to their CDOM level and trophic status. Optical modelling indicated that the spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient can be estimated with reasonable accuracy from the measured water quality concentrations. This provides more detailed information on light attenuation from routine monitoring measurements than is available through the Secchi disk transparency. The results of this study improve the interpretation of lake water quality by remote sensing and encourage the use of remote sensing in lake monitoring.