Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses in northern Europe

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses were studied using a combination of biological and physical indicators preserved in lake sediments. Low-frequency trends, high-frequency events and rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance were probed using pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and oxygen-isotopes from authigenic carbonate and aquatic cellulose, respectively. Pollen and plant macrofossils were employed to shed light on the presence and response rates of plant populations in response to climate changes, particularly focusing on common boreal and temperate tree species. Additional geochemical and isotopic tracers facilitated the interpretation of pollen- and oxygen-isotope data. The results show that the common boreal trees were present in the Baltic region (~55°N) during the Lateglacial, which contrasts with the traditional view of species refuge locations in the south-European peninsulas during the glacial/interglacial cycles. The findings of this work are in agreement with recent paleoecological and genetic evidence suggesting that scattered populations of tree species persisted at higher latitudes, and that these taxa were likely limited to boreal trees. Moreover, the results demonstrate that stepwise changes in plant communities took place in concert with major climate fluctuations of the glacial/interglacial transition. Postglacial climate trends in northern Europe were characterized by rise, maxima and fall in temperatures and related changes in moisture balance. Following the deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and the early Holocene reorganization of the ice-ocean-atmosphere system, the long-term temperature trends followed gradually decreasing summer insolation. The early Holocene (~11,700-8000 cal yr BP) was overall cool, moist and oceanic, although the earliest Holocene effective humidity may have been low particularly in the eastern part of northern Europe. The gradual warming trend was interrupted by a cold event ~8200 cal yr BP. The maximum temperatures, ~1.5-3.0°C above modern values, were attained ~8000-4000 cal yr BP. This mid-Holocene peak warmth was coupled with low lake levels, low effective humidity and summertime drought. The late Holocene (~4000 cal yr BP-present) was characterized by gradually decreasing temperatures, higher lake levels and higher effective humidity. Moreover, the gradual trends of the late Holocene were probably superimposed by higher-frequency variability. The spatial variability of the Holocene temperature and moisture balance patterns were tentatively attributed to the differing heat capacities of continents and oceans, changes in atmospheric circulation modes and position of sites and subregions with respect to large water bodies and topographic barriers. The combination of physical and biological proxy archives is a pivotal aspect of this work, because non-climatic factors, such as postglacial migration, disturbances and competitive interactions, can influence reshuffling of vegetation and hence, pollen-based climate reconstructions. The oxygen-isotope records and other physical proxies presented in this work manifest that postglacial climate changes were the main driver of the establishment and expansion of temperate and boreal tree populations, and hence, large-scale and long-term vegetation patterns were in dynamic equilibrium with climate. A notable exception to this pattern may be the postglacial invasion of Norway spruce and the related suppression of mid-Holocene temperate forest. This salient step in north-European vegetation history, the development of the modern boreal ecosystem, cannot be unambiguously explained by current evidence of postglacial climate changes. The results of this work highlight that plant populations, including long-lived trees, may be able to respond strikingly rapidly to changes in climate. Moreover, interannual and seasonal variation and extreme events can exert an important influence on vegetation reshuffling. Importantly, the studies imply that the presence of diffuse refuge populations or local stands among the prevailing vegetation may have provided the means for extraordinarily rapid vegetation responses. Hence, if scattered populations are not provided and tree populations are to migrate long distances, their capacity to keep up with predicted rates of future climate change may be lower than previously thought.

The effects of human induced disturbances on the sediment geochemistry of Baltic Sea embayments with a focus on eutrophication history

Historical sediment nutrient concentrations and heavy-metal distributions were studied in five embayments in the Gulf of Finland and an adjacent lake. The main objective of the study was to examine the response of these water bodies to temporal changes in human activities. Sediment cores were collected from the sites and dated using 210Pb and 137Cs. The cores were analyzed for total carbon (TC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), organic phosphorus (OP), inorganic phosphorus (IP), biogenic silica (BSi), loss on ignition (LOI), grain size, Cu, Zn, Al, Fe, Mn, K, Ca, Mg and Na. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to summarize the trends in the geochemical variables and to compare trends between the different sites. The links between the catchment land use and sediment geochemical data were studied using a multivariate technique of redundancy analysis (RDA). Human activities produce marked geochemical variations in coastal sediments. These variations and signals are often challenging to interpret due to various sedimentological and post-depositional factors affecting the sediment profiles. In general, the sites studied here show significant upcore increases in sedimentation rates, TP and TN concentrations. Also Cu, which is considered to be a good indicator of anthropogenic influence, showed clear increases from 1850 towards the top part of the cores. Based on the RDA-analysis, in the least disturbed embayments with high forest cover, the sediments are dominated by lithogenic indicators Fe, K, Al and Mg. In embayments close to urban settlement, the sediments have high Cu concentrations and a high sediment Fe/Mn ratio. This study suggests that sediment accumulation rates vary significantly from site to site and that the overall sedimentation can be linked to the geomorphology and basin bathymetry, which appear to be the major factors governing sedimentation rates; i.e. a high sediment accumulation rate is not characteristic either to urban or to rural sites. The geochemical trends are strongly site specific and depend on the local geochemical background, basin characteristics and anthropogenic metal and nutrient loading. Of the studied geochemical indicators, OP shows the least monotonic trends in all studied sites. When compared to other available data, OP seems to be the most reliable geochemical indicator describing the trophic development of the study sites, whereas Cu and Zn appear to be good indicators for anthropogenic influence. As sedimentation environments, estuarine and marine sites are more complex than lacustrine basins with multiple sources of sediment input and more energetic conditions in the former. The crucial differences between lacustrine and estuarine/coastal sedimentation environments are mostly related to Fe. P sedimentation is largely governed by Fe redox-reactions in estuarine environments. In freshwaters, presence of Fe is clearly linked to the sedimentation of other lithogenic metals, and therefore P sedimentation and preservation has a more direct linkage to organic matter sedimentation.

AndroMedia - Towards a Context-aware Mobile Music Recommender

Portable music players have made it possible to listen to a personal collection of music in almost every situation, and they are often used during some activity to provide a stimulating audio environment. Studies have demonstrated the effects of music on the human body and mind, indicating that selecting music according to situation can, besides making the situation more enjoyable, also make humans perform better. For example, music can boost performance during physical exercises, alleviate stress and positively affect learning. We believe that people intuitively select different types of music for different situations. Based on this hypothesis, we propose a portable music player, AndroMedia, designed to provide personalised music recommendations using the user’s current context and listening habits together with other user’s situational listening patterns. We have developed a prototype that consists of a central server and a PDA client. The client uses Bluetooth sensors to acquire context information and logs user interaction to infer implicit user feedback. The user interface also allows the user to give explicit feedback. Large user interface elements facilitate touch-based usage in busy environments. The prototype provides the necessary framework for using the collected information together with other user’s listening history in a context- enhanced collaborative filtering algorithm to generate context-sensitive recommendations. The current implementation is limited to using traditional collaborative filtering algorithms. We outline the techniques required to create context-aware recommendations and present a survey on mobile context-aware music recommenders found in literature. As opposed to the explored systems, AndroMedia utilises other users’ listening habits when suggesting tunes, and does not require any laborious set up processes.

Kirkon vai valtion kirjat? : Uskontokuntasidonnaisuuden ongelma Suomen väestökirjanpidossa 1839-1904

The Population Register – run by the Church or the state? The problem posed by the obligation to belong to a religious community in the registration of births and deaths in Finland between 1839 and 1904 The Lutheran Church of Finland is the nation’s largest church; approximately 82 per cent of Finns were members in 2007. The Church ran an official register of its members until 1999, when the state then undertook this task. The registration of births and deaths by the Church has a long history dating back to the 17th century, when Bishop Johannes Gezelius Sr. decreed that all parish members would have to be recorded in parish registers. These registers were used to control how well parish members knew the Christian doctrine and, gradually, also if they were literate. Additionally, the Church attempted to ensure by means of the parish registers that parish members went to Holy Communion annually. Since everyone was a member of the Lutheran Church, the state also took advantage of the parish registers and used them for the purposes of tax collection and conscription. The main research theme of “The Population Register – run by the Church or the state?” goes back to these times. The actual research period covers the years of 1839–1904. At that time Finland was under Russian rule, although autonomous. In the late 19th century the press and different associations in Finland began to engage in public debate, and the country started moving from a submissive society to a civic one. The identity of the Lutheran Church also became more prominent when the Church Act and the General Synod were realised in 1869. A few years earlier, municipal and parish administrations had been separated, but the general registration of births and deaths was left to the Church to see to. In compliance with the constitution of the country, all the inhabitants in principle still had to be Lutheran. In practice, the situation was different. The religious and ideological realms diversified, and the Lutheran concept of religion was no longer acceptable to everyone. The conflict was reflected in the registration of births and deaths, which was linked to the Lutheran Church and its parish registers. Nobody was allowed to leave the Church, there was no civil register, and the Lutheran Church did not consent to record unbaptized children in the parish registers. Therefore such children were left without civil rights. Thus the obligation to belong to a religious community had become a problem in the registration of births and deaths. The Lutheran clergy also appealed to the 1723 privileges, according to which they had been exempted from the drawing up of additional population registers. In 1889 Finland passed the Dissenters Act. By virtue of this act the Baptists and the Methodists left the state Church, but this was not the case with the members of the free churches. The freethinkers had to retain their church membership, as the law did not apply to them. This meant that the unbaptized children of the members of the free churches or those of freethinkers were still not entered in any registers. The children were not able to go to school, work for the state or legally marry. Neither were they able to inherit property, as they did not legally exist. The system of parish registers was created when everyone was required to be a member of the Lutheran Church, but it did not work when liberal attitudes eventually penetrated the sphere of religion, too. The government´s measures to solve the problem were slow and cautious, partly because Finland was part of Russia, partly because there were only about 100 unbaptized children. As the problem group was small and the state´s resources were limited, no general civil register was established. The state accepted the fact that in spite of the problems, the Evangelical Lutheran Church and the congregations of dissenters were the only official establishments to run populations registers in the country, and for social purposes, too. In 1900 the Diet of Finland finally approved a limited civil register, which unbaptized children and unregistered foreigners would be recorded in. Due to political reasons the civil register did not come into existence until 1917, after the actual research period.

Kirkko, Kekkonen ja kommunismi poliittisina kriisivuosina 1958-1962

This study explores the relationship of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland to communism and political power during the period of crises in Finnish foreign relations with the Soviet Union from 1958 to 1962. During this period the USSR repeatedly interfered in Finland´s domestic affairs and limited her foreign political freedom of action. The research subjects for this dissertation are the bishops of the Church of Finland and the newspaper Kotimaa, which can be regarded as the unofficial organ of the church at the time. A typical characteristic of the Church of Finland from the beginning of the twentieth century was patriotism. During the interwar years the church was strongly anti-communist and against the Soviet Union. This tendency was also evident during the Second World War. After the war the Finnish Church feared that the rise of the extreme left would jeopardize its position. The church, however, succeeded in maintaining its status as a state church throughout the critical years immediately following the war. This study indicates that, although the manner of expression altered, the political attitude of the church did not substantially change during the postwar period. In the late 1950s and early 1960s the church was still patriotic and fear of the extreme left was also evident among the leaders of the church. The victory of the Finnish People's Democratic League in the general election of 1958 was an unwelcome surprise to the church. This generated fear in the church that, with Soviet support, the Finnish communists might return to governmental power and the nation could become a people's democracy. Accordingly, the church tried to encourage other parties to set aside their disagreements and act together against the extreme left throughout the period under study. The main characteristics of the church´s political agenda during this period of crisis were to support the Finnish foreign policy led by the president of the republic, Urho Kekkonen, and to resist Finnish communism. The attitude of Finnish bishops and the newspaper Kotimaa to the Cold War in general was generally in agreement with the majority of western Christians. They feared communism, were afraid of the USSR, but supported peaceful co-existence because they did not want an open conflict with the Soviets. Because of uncertainties in Finland's international position the Finnish Church regarded it as necessary to support the Finnish policy of friendship towards the USSR. The Finnish Church considerer it unwise to openly criticize the Soviet Union, tried resist the spread of communism in Finnish domestic policy. This period of foreign policy crises was principally seen by the church as a time when there was a need to strengthen Finland's unstable national position.

Eru Ilúvatar : Jumala J.R.R. Tolkienin legendariumissa

The purpose of my research is to inquire into the essence and activity of God in the legendarium of the English philologist and writer J.R.R. Tolkien (1892-1973). The legendarium, composed of Tolkien’s writings related to Middle-earth, was begun when he created two Elvish languages, Quenya based on Finnish, Sindarin based on Welsh. Tolkien developed his mythology inspired by Germanic myths and The Kalevala. It is a fictional ancient history set in our world. The legendarium is monotheistic: God is called Eru ‘The One’ and Ilúvatar ‘Father of All’. Eru is the same as the Christian God, for Tolkien wanted to keep his tales consistent with his faith. He said his works were Christian by nature, with the religious element absorbed into the story and the symbolism. In The Silmarillion, set in the primeval ages of Middle-earth, the theological aspects are more conspicuous, while in The Lord of the Rings, which brings the stories to an end, they are mostly limited to symbolic references. The legendarium is unified by its realistic outlook on creaturely abilities and hope expressing itself as humbly defiant resistance. ”The possibility of complexity or of distinctions in the nature of Eru” is a part of the legendarium. Eru Ilúvatar is Trinitarian, as per Tolkien’s faith. Without contextual qualifiers, Eru seems to refer to God the Father, like God in the Bible. Being the creator who dwells outside the world is attributed to Him. The Holy Spirit is the only Person of the Trinity bestown with names: the Flame Imperishable and the Secret Fire. When Eru creates the material world with His word, He sends the Flame Imperishable to burn at the heart of the world. The Secret Fire signifies the Creative Power that belongs to God alone, and is a part of Him. The Son, the Word, is not directly mentioned, but according to one writing Eru must step inside the world in order to save it from corruption, yet remain outside it at the same time. The inner structure of the legendarium refers to the need for a future salvation. The creative word of Eru, “Eä! Let these things Be!”, probably has a connection with the Logos in Christianity. Thus we can find three “distinctions” in Eru: a Creator who dwells outside the world, a Sustainer who dwells inside it and a Redeemer who shall step inside it. Some studies of Tolkien have claimed that Eru is distant and remote. This seems to hold water only partially. Ilúvatar, the Father of All, has a special relation with the Eruhíni, His Children, the immortal Elves and the mortal Men. He communicates with them directly only through the Valar, who resemble archangels. Nevertheless, only the Children of Eru can fight against evil, because their tragic fortunes turn evil into good. Even though religious activities are scarce among them, the fundamental faith and ultimate hope of the “Free Peoples” is directed towards Eru. He is present in the drama of history as the “Author of the Story”, who at times also interferes with its course through catastrophes and eucatastrophes, ‘good catastrophes’. Eru brings about a catastrophe when evil would otherwise bring good to an end, and He brings about a eucatasrophe when creaturely strength is not sufficent for victory. Victory over corruption is especially connected with mortal Men, of whom the most (or least) insignificant people are the Hobbits. However, because of the “primeval disaster” (that is, fall) of Mankind, ultimate salvation can only remain open, a hope for the far future.

Salaisen evankelistan salaliitto : Uusin keskustelu Klemens Aleksandrialaisen kirjeestä Theodorokselle

This thesis is an assessment of the hoax hypothesis, mainly propagated in Stephen C. Carlson's 2005 monograph "The Gospel Hoax: Morton Smith's Invention of Secret Mark", which suggests that professor Morton Smith (1915-1991) forged Clement of Alexandria's letter to Theodore. This letter Smith claimed to have discovered as an 18th century copy in the monastery of Mar Saba in 1958. The Introduction narrates the discovery story of Morton Smith and traces the manuscript's whereabouts up to its apparent disappearance in 1990 following with a brief history of scholarship of the MS and some methodological considerations. Chapters 2 and 3 deal with the arguments for the hoax (mainly by Stephen C. Carlson) and against it (mainly Scott G. Brown). Chapter 2 looks at the MS in its physical aspects, and chapter 3 assesses its subject matter. I conclude that some of the details fit reasonably well with the hoax hypothesis, but on the whole the arguments against it are more persuasive. Especially Carlson's use of QDE-analysis (Questioned Document Examination) has many problems. Comparing the handwriting of Clement's letter to Morton Smith's handwriting I conclude that there are some "repeated differences" between them suggesting that Smith is not the writer of the disputed letter. Clement's letter to Theodore derives most likely from antiquity though the exact details of its character are not discussed in length in this thesis. In Chapter 4 I take a special look at Stephen C. Carlson's arguments which propose that Morton Smith hid clues of his identity to the MS and the materials surrounding it. Comparing these alleged clues to known pseudoscientific works I conclude that Carlson utilizes here methods normally reserved for building a conspiracy theory; thus Carlson's hoax hypothesis has serious methodological flaws in respect to these hidden clues. I construct a model of these questionable methods titled "a boisterous pseudohistorical method" that contains three parts: 1) beginning with a question that from the beginning implicitly contains the answer, 2) considering everything will do as evidence for the conspiracy theory, and 3) abandoning probability and thinking literally that everything is connected. I propose that Stephen C. Carlson utilizes these pseudoscientific methods in his unearthing of Morton Smith's "clues". Chapter 5 looks briefly at the literary genre I title "textual puzzle -thriller". Because even biblical scholarship follows the signs of the times, I propose Carlson's hoax hypothesis has its literary equivalents in fiction in titles like Dan Brown's "Da Vinci Code" and in academic works in titles like John Dart's "Decoding Mark". All of these are interested in solving textual puzzles, even though the methodological choices are not acceptable for scholarship. Thus the hoax hypothesis as a whole is alternatively either unpersuasive or plain bad science.

Climate forcing on avian life history

In the 21st century, human-induced global climate change has been highlighted as one of the most serious threats to ecosystems worldwide. According to global climate scenarios, the mean temperature in Finland is expected to increase by 1.8 4.0°C by the end of the century. The regional and seasonal change in temperature has predicted to be spatially and temporally asymmetric, where the High-Arctic and Antarctic areas and winter and spring seasons have been projected to face the highest temperature increase. To understand how species respond to the ongoing climate change, we need to study how climate affects species in different phases of their life cycle. The impact of climate on breeding and migration of eight large-sized bird species was studied in this thesis, taking food availability into account. The findings show that climatic variables have considerable impact on the life-history traits of large-sized birds in northern Europe. The magnitude of climatic effects on migration and breeding was comparable with that of food supply, conventionally regarded as the main factor affecting these life-history traits. Based on the results of this thesis and the current climate scenarios, the following not mutually exclusive responses are possible in the near future. Firstly, asymmetric climate change may result in a mistiming of breeding because mild winters and early spring may lead to earlier breeding, whereas offspring are hatching into colder conditions which elevate mortality. Secondly, climate induced responses can differ between species with different breeding tactics (income vs. capital breeding), so that especially capital breeders can gain advantage on global warming as they can sustain higher energy resources. Thirdly, increasing precipitation has the potential to reduce the breeding success of many species by exposing nestlings to more severe post-hatching conditions and hampering the hunting conditions of parents. Fourthly, decreasing ice cover and earlier ice-break in the Baltic Sea will allow earlier spring migration in waterfowl. In eiders, this can potentially lead to more productive breeding. Fifthly, warming temperatures can favour parents preparing for breeding and increase nestling survival. Lastly, the climate-induced phenological changes in life history events will likely continue. Furthermore, interactions between climate and food resources can be complex and interact with each other. Eiders provide an illustrative example of this complexity, being caught in the crossfire between more benign ice conditions and lower salinity negatively affecting their prime food resource. The general conclusion is that climate is controlling not only the phenology of the species but also their reproductive output, thus affecting the entire population dynamics.

Dispersal and related life history traits in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Most studies of life history evolution are based on the assumption that species exist at equilibrium and spatially distinct separated populations. In reality, this is rarely the case, as populations are often spatially structured with ephemeral local populations. Therefore, the characteristics of metapopulations should be considered while studying factors affecting life history evolution. Theoretical studies have examined spatial processes shaping the evolution of life history traits to some extent, but there is little empirical data and evidence to investigate model predictions. In my thesis I have tried to bridge the gap between theoretical and empirical studies by using the well-known Glanville fritillary (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation as a model system. The long-term persistence of classic metapopulations requires sufficient dispersal to establish new local populations to compensate for local extinctions. Previous studies on the Glanville fritillary have shown that females establishing new populations are not a random sample from the metapopulation, but they are in fact more dispersive than females in old populations. Many other life-history traits, such as body size, fecundity and lifespan, may be related to dispersal rate. Therefore, I examined a range of correlated traits for their evolutionary and ecological consequences. I was particularly interested in how the traits vary under natural environmental conditions, hence all studies were conducted in a large (32 x 26 m) outdoor population cage built upon a natural habitat patch. Individuals for the experiments were sampled from newly-established and old populations within a large metapopulation. Results show that females originating from newly-established populations had higher within-habitat patch mobility than females from old populations. I showed that dispersal rate is heritable and that flight activity is related to variation in a gene encoding the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase. Both among-individual and among-population variation in dispersal are correlated with the reproductive performance of females, though I found no evidence for a trade-off between dispersal and fecundity in terms of lifetime egg production or clutch size. Instead, the results suggest that highly dispersive females from newly-established populations have a shorter lifespan than females from old populations, and that dispersive females may pay a cost in terms of reduced lifetime reproductive success due to increased time spent outside habitat patches. In summary, the results of this thesis show that genotype-dependent dispersal rate correlates with other life history traits in the Glanville fritillary, and that the rapid turnover of local populations (extinctions and re-colonisations) is likely to be the mechanism that maintains phenotypic variation in many life history traits at the metapopulation level.

Human genetic variation in the Baltic Sea region: Features of population history and natural selection

In this thesis, the genetic variation of human populations from the Baltic Sea region was studied in order to elucidate population history as well as evolutionary adaptation in this region. The study provided novel understanding of how the complex population level processes of migration, genetic drift, and natural selection have shaped genetic variation in North European populations. Results from genome-wide, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses suggested that the genetic background of the populations of the Baltic Sea region lies predominantly in Continental Europe, which is consistent with earlier studies and archaeological evidence. The late settlement of Fennoscandia after the Ice Age and the subsequent small population size have led to pronounced genetic drift, especially in Finland and Karelia but also in Sweden, evident especially in genome-wide and Y-chromosomal analyses. Consequently, these populations show striking genetic differentiation, as opposed to much more homogeneous pattern of variation in Central European populations. Additionally, the eastern side of the Baltic Sea was observed to have experienced eastern influence in the genome-wide data as well as in mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal variation – consistent with linguistic connections. However, Slavic influence in the Baltic Sea populations appears minor on genetic level. While the genetic diversity of the Finnish population overall was low, genome-wide and Y-chromosomal results showed pronounced regional differences. The genetic distance between Western and Eastern Finland was larger than for many geographically distant population pairs, and provinces also showed genetic differences. This is probably mainly due to the late settlement of Eastern Finland and local isolation, although differences in ancestral migration waves may contribute to this, too. In contrast, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses of the contemporary Swedish population revealed a much less pronounced population structure and a fusion of the traces of ancient admixture, genetic drift, and recent immigration. Genome-wide datasets also provide a resource for studying the adaptive evolution of human populations. This study revealed tens of loci with strong signs of recent positive selection in Northern Europe. These results provide interesting targets for future research on evolutionary adaptation, and may be important for understanding the background of disease-causing variants in human populations.

Ecological consequences of genetic modifications - an invasion analysis approach

Biological invasions are considered as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, as they may lead to disruption and homogenization of natural communities, and in the worst case, to native species extinctions. The introduction of gene modified organisms (GMOs) to agricultural, fisheries and forestry practices brings them into contact with natural populations. GMOs may appear as new invasive species if they are able to (1) invade into natural habitats or (2) hybridize with their wild relatives. The benefits of GMOs, such as increased yield or decreased use of insecticides or herbicides in cultivation, may thus be reduced due the potential risks they may cause. A careful ecological risk analysis therefore has to precede any responsible GMO introduction. In this thesis I study ecological invasion in relation to GMOs, and what kind of consequences invasion may have in natural populations. A set of theoretical models that combine life-history evolution, population dynamics, and population genetics were developed for the hazard identification part of ecological risks assessment of GMOs. In addition, the potential benefits of GMOs in management of an invasive pest were analyzed. In the first study I showed that a population that is fluctuating due to scramble-type density dependence (due to, e.g., nutrient competition in plants) may be invaded by a population that is relatively more limited by a resource (e.g., light in plants) that is a cause of contest-type density dependence. This result emphasises the higher risk of invasion in unstable environments. The next two studies focused on escape of a growth hormone (GH) transgenic fish into a natural population. The results showed that previous models may have given too pessimistic a view of the so called Trojan gene -effect, where the invading genotype is harmful for the population as a whole. The previously suggested population extinctions did not occur in my studies, since the changes in mating preferences caused by the GH-fish were be ameliorated by decreased level of competition. The GH-invaders may also have to exceed a threshold density before invasion can be successful. I also showed that the prevalence of mature parr (aka. sneaker) strategy among GH-fish may have clear effect on invasion outcome. The fourth study assessed the risks and developed methods against the invasion of the Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB, Leptinotarsa decemlineata). I showed that the eradication of CPB is most important for the prevention of their establishment, but the cultivation of transgenic Bt-potato could also be effective. In general, my results emphasise that invasion of transgenic species or genotypes to be possible under certain realistic conditions and resulting in competitive exclusion, population decline through outbreeding depression and genotypic displacement of native species. Ecological risk assessment should regard the decline and displacement of the wild genotype by an introduced one as a consequence that is as serious as the population extinction. It will also be crucial to take into account different kinds of behavioural differences among species when assessing the possible hazards that GMOs may cause if escaped. The benefits found of GMO crops effectiveness in pest management may also be too optimistic since CPB may evolve resistance to Bt-toxin. The models in this thesis could be further applied in case specific risk assessment of GMOs by supplementing them with detailed data of the species biology, the effect of the transgene introduced to the species, and also the characteristics of the populations or the environments in the risk of being invaded.