39 resultados para Spatially
Resumo:
Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.
Resumo:
Atmospheric particles affect the radiation balance of the Earth and thus the climate. New particle formation from nucleation has been observed in diverse atmospheric conditions but the actual formation path is still unknown. The prevailing conditions can be exploited to evaluate proposed formation mechanisms. This study aims to improve our understanding of new particle formation from the view of atmospheric conditions. The role of atmospheric conditions on particle formation was studied by atmospheric measurements, theoretical model simulations and simulations based on observations. Two separate column models were further developed for aerosol and chemical simulations. Model simulations allowed us to expand the study from local conditions to varying conditions in the atmospheric boundary layer, while the long-term measurements described especially characteristic mean conditions associated with new particle formation. The observations show statistically significant difference in meteorological and back-ground aerosol conditions between observed event and non-event days. New particle formation above boreal forest is associated with strong convective activity, low humidity and low condensation sink. The probability of a particle formation event is predicted by an equation formulated for upper boundary layer conditions. The model simulations call into question if kinetic sulphuric acid induced nucleation is the primary particle formation mechanism in the presence of organic vapours. Simultaneously the simulations show that ignoring spatial and temporal variation in new particle formation studies may lead to faulty conclusions. On the other hand, the theoretical simulations indicate that short-scale variations in temperature and humidity unlikely have a significant effect on mean binary water sulphuric acid nucleation rate. The study emphasizes the significance of mixing and fluxes in particle formation studies, especially in the atmospheric boundary layer. The further developed models allow extensive aerosol physical and chemical studies in the future.
Resumo:
Space in musical semiosis is a study of musical meaning, spatiality and composition. Earlier studies on musical composition have not adequately treated the problems of musical signification. Here, composition is considered an epitomic process of musical signification. Hence the core problems of composition theory are core problems of musical semiotics. The study employs a framework of naturalist pragmatism, based on C. S. Peirce’s philosophy. It operates on concepts such as subject, experience, mind and inquiry, and incorporates relevant ideas of Aristotle, Peirce and John Dewey into a synthetic view of esthetic, practic, and semiotic for the benefit of grasping musical signification process as a case of semiosis in general. Based on expert accounts, music is depicted as real, communicative, representational, useful, embodied and non-arbitrary. These describe how music and the musical composition process are mental processes. Peirce’s theories are combined with current morphological theories of cognition into a view of mind, in which space is central. This requires an analysis of space, and the acceptance of a relativist understanding of spatiality. This approach to signification suggests that mental processes are spatially embodied, by virtue of hard facts of the world, literal representations of objects, as well as primary and complex metaphors each sharing identities of spatial structures. Consequently, music and the musical composition process are spatially embodied. Composing music appears as a process of constructing metaphors—as a praxis of shaping and reshaping features of sound, representable from simple quality dimensions to complex domains. In principle, any conceptual space, metaphorical or literal, may set off and steer elaboration, depending on the practical bearings on the habits of feeling, thinking and action, induced in musical communication. In this sense, it is evident that music helps us to reorganize our habits of feeling, thinking, and action. These habits, in turn, constitute our existence. The combination of Peirce and morphological approaches to cognition serves well for understanding musical and general signification. It appears both possible and worthwhile to address a variety of issues central to musicological inquiry in the framework of naturalist pragmatism. The study may also contribute to the development of Peircean semiotics.
Resumo:
The study describes the use and meaning of the Finnish demonstrative pronouns, focus being on the pronoun "tämä" (roughly 'this'). The Finnish demonstrative system is a three way one, the other two demonstratives are "tuo" ('that') and "se" ('it'). The data consisted of 12 half hours of video- and tape-recorded face-to-face and telephone conversations. The method for the study was ethnomethodological conversation analysis (CA); in addition to CA, the theoretical framework consisted of functional linguistics and linguistic anthropology. First, the study dealt with the syntactic distribution of the three demonstratives. The pronouns were analysed according to whether they are before or after the verb, and whether they compose an NP on their own or are determinants of a lexical NP. The study suggested that the form and the placement of the NP presents the referent as continuous/discontinuous or given/new. Givenness of a referent was defined as "identified adequately for the purposes of the on-going action". The so-called dislocated utterances were considered separately. It was found that left-dislocations are used for inserting referents in a particular relation to the on-going activity. Right-dislocations offer a solution for the sometimes competing motivations of newness and continuity: they are used for securing the identifiability of a referent that is implied to be continuous. Second, the study focussed on analysing the meaning of the pronouns according to three dimensions of reference: referential, indexical and relational. It was found that the demonstratives can organize interactional or spatial context. When organizing interactional context, the demonstrative pronouns express the role of identifying the referent in relation to the on-going activity. The pronoun "tämä" expresses that the referent is referentially open and the characterization of the referent is given in the on-going turn. Furthermore, it expresses asymmetry of the indexical ground: it expresses that the participants of a conversation do not share a mutual understanding of the activity at that particular time. In addition, the referent of the pronoun "tämä" is central for understanding the on-going action. Centrality could be understood as the relational feature of the pronoun. However, it is a consequence of the referential and indexical features of "tämä". The pronoun "tuo" also expresses referential openness, but it implies indexical symmetry. The pronoun "se" implies that the referent is known enough, and implies indexical symmetry. When used spatially, the pronouns may refer to a physical space or to a situation. They express or imply that the speaker is inside or outside the referent. The pronoun "tämä" implies inclusion, and the pronoun "tuo" expresses exclusion.
Resumo:
The visual systems of humans and animals represent physical reality in a modified way, depending on the specific demands that the species in question has for survival. The ability to perceive visual illusions is found in independently evolved visual systems, from honeybees to humans. In humans, the ability emerges early, at the age of four months. Thus the perception of illusion is likely to reflect visual processes of fundamental importance for object perception in natural vision. The experiments reported in this thesis employed various modifications of the Kanizsa triangle, a drawn configuration composed of three black disks with missing sectors on a white background. The sectors appear to form the tips of a triangle. The visual system completes the physically empty area between the disks, generally called inducers, with giving the perception of an illusory triangle. The illusory triangle consists of an illusory surface bounded by illusory contours; the triangle appears brighter than and to lie above the background. If the sectors are coloured, the colour fills the illusory area, a phenomenon known as neon colour spreading . We investigated spatial limitations on the perception of Kanizsa-type illusions and how other stimuli and viewing parameters affected these limitations. We also studied complex configurations thick, bent, mobile and chromatic inducers - to determine whether illusions combining several attributes can be perceived. The results suggest that the visual system is highly effective in completing a percept. The perception of an illusory figure is spatially scale invariant when perceived at threshold. The processing time and the number of fixations modify the percept, making the perception of the illusion more probable in various viewing conditions. Furthermore, the fact that the illusion can be perceived when only one inducer is physically present at any given moment indicates the potential of single inducers. Apparently, modelling illusory figure perception will require a combination of low-level, local processes and higher-level integrative processes. Our studies with stimuli combining several attributes relevant to object perception demonstrate that the perception of an illusory figure is flexible and is maintained also when it contains colour and volume and when shown in movement. All in all, the results confirm the assumed importance of the visual processes related with the perception of illusory figures in everyday viewing. This is indicated by the variety of inducer modifications that can be made without destroying the percept. Furthermore, the illusion can acquire additional attributes from such modifications. Due to individual differences in the perception of illusory figures, universal values for absolute performance are not always meaningful, but stable trends and general relations do exist.
Resumo:
The neural basis of visual perception can be understood only when the sequence of cortical activity underlying successful recognition is known. The early steps in this processing chain, from retina to the primary visual cortex, are highly local, and the perception of more complex shapes requires integration of the local information. In Study I of this thesis, the progression from local to global visual analysis was assessed by recording cortical magnetoencephalographic (MEG) responses to arrays of elements that either did or did not form global contours. The results demonstrated two spatially and temporally distinct stages of processing: The first, emerging 70 ms after stimulus onset around the calcarine sulcus, was sensitive to local features only, whereas the second, starting at 130 ms across the occipital and posterior parietal cortices, reflected the global configuration. To explore the links between cortical activity and visual recognition, Studies II III presented subjects with recognition tasks of varying levels of difficulty. The occipito-temporal responses from 150 ms onwards were closely linked to recognition performance, in contrast to the 100-ms mid-occipital responses. The averaged responses increased gradually as a function of recognition performance, and further analysis (Study III) showed the single response strengths to be graded as well. Study IV addressed the attention dependence of the different processing stages: Occipito-temporal responses peaking around 150 ms depended on the content of the visual field (faces vs. houses), whereas the later and more sustained activity was strongly modulated by the observers attention. Hemodynamic responses paralleled the pattern of the more sustained electrophysiological responses. Study V assessed the temporal processing capacity of the human object recognition system. Above sufficient luminance, contrast and size of the object, the processing speed was not limited by such low-level factors. Taken together, these studies demonstrate several distinct stages in the cortical activation sequence underlying the object recognition chain, reflecting the level of feature integration, difficulty of recognition, and direction of attention.
Resumo:
This study examines boundaries in health care organizations. Boundaries are sometimes considered things to be avoided in everyday living. This study suggests that boundaries can be important temporally and spatially emerging locations of development, learning, and change in inter-organizational activity. Boundaries can act as mediators of cultural and social formations and practices. The data of the study was gathered in an intervention project during the years 2000-2002 in Helsinki in which the care of 26 patients with multiple and chronic illnesses was improved. The project used the Change Laboratory method that represents a research assisted method for developing work. The research questions of the study are: (1) What are the boundary dynamics of development, learning, and change in health care for patients with multiple and chronic illnesses? (2) How do individual patients experience boundaries in their health care? (3) How are the boundaries of health care constructed and reconstructed in social interaction? (4) What are the dynamics of boundary crossing in the experimentation with the new tools and new practice? The methodology of the study, the ethnography of the multi-organizational field of activity, draws on cultural-historical activity theory and anthropological methods. The ethnographic fieldwork involves multiple research techniques and a collaborative strategy for raising research data. The data of this study consists of observations, interviews, transcribed intervention sessions, and patients' health documents. According to the findings, the care of patients with multiple and chronic illnesses emerges as fragmented by divisions of a patient and professionals, specialties of medicine and levels of health care organization. These boundaries have a historical origin in the Finnish health care system. As an implication of these boundaries, patients frequently experience uncertainty and neglect in their care. However, the boundaries of a single patient were transformed in the Change Laboratory discussions among patients, professionals and researchers. In these discussions, the questioning of the prevailing boundaries was triggered by the observation of gaps in inter-organizational care. Transformation of the prevailing boundaries was achieved in implementation of the collaborative care agreement tool and the practice of negotiated care. However, the new tool and practice did not expand into general use during the project. The study identifies two complementary models for the development of health care organization in Finland. The 'care package model', which is based on productivity and process models adopted from engineering and the 'model of negotiated care', which is based on co-configuration and the public good.
Resumo:
When experts construct mental images, they do not rely only on perceptual features; they also access domain-specific knowledge and skills in long-term memory, which enables them to exceed the capacity limitations of the short-term working memory system. The central question of the present dissertation was whether the facilitating effect of long-term memory knowledge on working memory imagery tasks is primarily based on perceptual chunking or whether it relies on higher-level conceptual knowledge. Three domains of expertise were studied: chess, music, and taxi driving. The effects of skill level, stimulus surface features, and the stimulus structure on incremental construction of mental images were investigated. A method was developed to capture the chunking mechanisms that experts use in constructing images: chess pieces, street names, and visual notes were presented in a piecemeal fashion for later recall. Over 150 experts and non-experts participated in a total of 13 experiments, as reported in five publications. The results showed skill effects in all of the studied domains when experts performed memory and problem solving tasks that required mental imagery. Furthermore, only experts' construction of mental images benefited from meaningful stimuli. Manipulation of the stimulus surface features, such as replacing chess pieces with dots, did not significantly affect experts' performance in the imagery tasks. In contrast, the structure of the stimuli had a significant effect on experts' performance in every task domain. For example, taxi drivers recalled more street names from lists that formed a spatially continuous route than from alphabetically organised lists. The results suggest that the mechanisms of conceptual chunking rather than automatic perceptual pattern matching underlie expert performance, even though the tasks of the present studies required perception-like mental representations. The results show that experts are able to construct skilled images that surpass working memory capacity, and that their images are conceptually organised and interpreted rather than merely depictive.
Resumo:
Progressive myoclonus epilepsy of Unverricht-Lundborg type (EPM1) is an autosomal recessively inherited disorder characterized by age of onset at 6-15 years, stimulus-sensitive myoclonus, tonic-clonic epileptic seizures and a progressive course. Mutations in the cystatin B (CSTB) gene underlie EPM1. The most common mutation underlying EPM1 is a dodecamer repeat expansion in the promoter region of CSTB. In addition, nine other mutations have been identified. CSTB, a cysteine protease inhibitor, is a ubiquitously expressed inhibitor of cathepsins, but its physiological function is unknown. The purpose of this study was to investigate CSTB gene expression and CSTB protein function in normal and pathological conditions. The basal CSTB promoter was mapped and characterized using different promoter-luciferase gene constructs. The binding activity of transcription factors to one ARE half, five Sp1 and four AP1 sites in the CSTB promoter was demonstrated. The CSTB promoter activity was clearly decreased using a CSTB promoter with "premutation" repeat expansions and in individuals with alike expansions. The expression of CSTB mRNA and protein was markedly reduced in patient cells. The endogenous CSTB protein localized to the nucleus, cytoplasm and lysosomes, and in differentiated cells merely to the cytoplasm. This suggests that the subcellular distribution of CSTB is dependent on the differentation status of the cells. The proteins representing patient missense mutations failed to associate with lysosomes, implying the importance of the lysosomal association for the proper physiological function of CSTB. Several alternatively spliced CSTB isoforms were identified. Of these CSTB2 was widely expressed with very low levels whereas the other alternatively spliced forms seemed to have limited tissue expression. In patients CSTB2 expression was reduced similarly to that of CSTB. The physiological relevance of CSTB alternative splicing remains unknown. The mouse Cstb transcript was shown to be present in all embryonic stages and adult tissues examined. The expression was highest at embryonic day 7 and in thymus, as well as in postnatal brain in the cortex, caudate putamen, thalamus, hippocampus, and in the Purkinje cell layer of the cerebellum. Our data implies that CSTB expression is tightly temporally and spatially regulated. The data presented in my thesis lay the basis for further understanding of the role of CSTB in health and disease.
Resumo:
Human-wildlife conflicts are today an integral part of the rural development discourse. In this research, the main focus is on the spatial explanation which is not a very common approach in the reviewed literature. My research hypothesis is based on the assumption that human-wildlife conflicts occur when a wild animal crosses a perceived borderline between the nature and culture and enters into the realms of the other. The borderline between nature and culture marks a perceived division of spatial content in our senses of place. The animal subject that crosses this border becomes a subject out of place meaning that the animal is then spatially located in a space where it should not be or where it does not belong according to tradition, custom, rules, law, public opinion, prevailing discourse or some other criteria set by human beings. An appearance of a wild animal in a domesticated space brings an uncontrolled subject into that space where humans have previously commanded total control of all other natural elements. A wild animal out of place may also threaten the biosecurity of the place in question. I carried out a case study in the Liwale district in south-eastern Tanzania to test my hypothesis during June and July 2002. I also collected documents and carried out interviews in Dar es Salaam in 2003. I studied the human-wildlife conflicts in six rural villages, where a total of 183 persons participated in the village meetings. My research methods included semi-structured interviews, participatory mapping, questionnaire survey and Q- methodology. The rural communities in the Liwale district have a long-history of co-existing with wildlife and they still have traditional knowledge of wildlife management and hunting. Wildlife conservation through the establishment of game reserves during the colonial era has escalated human-wildlife conflicts in the Liwale district. This study shows that the villagers perceive some wild animals differently in their images of the African countryside than the district and regional level civil servants do. From the small scale subsistence farmers point of views, wild animals continue to challenge the separation of the wild (the forests) and the domestics spaces (the cultivated fields) by moving across the perceived borders in search of food and shelter. As a result, the farmers may loose their crops, livestock or even their own lives in the confrontations of wild animals. Human-wildlife conflicts in the Liwale district are manifold and cannot be explained simply on the basis of attitudes or perceived images of landscapes. However, the spatial explanation of these conflicts provides us some more understanding of why human-wildlife conflicts are so widely found across the world.
Resumo:
Digital elevation models (DEMs) have been an important topic in geography and surveying sciences for decades due to their geomorphological importance as the reference surface for gravita-tion-driven material flow, as well as the wide range of uses and applications. When DEM is used in terrain analysis, for example in automatic drainage basin delineation, errors of the model collect in the analysis results. Investigation of this phenomenon is known as error propagation analysis, which has a direct influence on the decision-making process based on interpretations and applications of terrain analysis. Additionally, it may have an indirect influence on data acquisition and the DEM generation. The focus of the thesis was on the fine toposcale DEMs, which are typically represented in a 5-50m grid and used in the application scale 1:10 000-1:50 000. The thesis presents a three-step framework for investigating error propagation in DEM-based terrain analysis. The framework includes methods for visualising the morphological gross errors of DEMs, exploring the statistical and spatial characteristics of the DEM error, making analytical and simulation-based error propagation analysis and interpreting the error propagation analysis results. The DEM error model was built using geostatistical methods. The results show that appropriate and exhaustive reporting of various aspects of fine toposcale DEM error is a complex task. This is due to the high number of outliers in the error distribution and morphological gross errors, which are detectable with presented visualisation methods. In ad-dition, the use of global characterisation of DEM error is a gross generalisation of reality due to the small extent of the areas in which the decision of stationarity is not violated. This was shown using exhaustive high-quality reference DEM based on airborne laser scanning and local semivariogram analysis. The error propagation analysis revealed that, as expected, an increase in the DEM vertical error will increase the error in surface derivatives. However, contrary to expectations, the spatial au-tocorrelation of the model appears to have varying effects on the error propagation analysis depend-ing on the application. The use of a spatially uncorrelated DEM error model has been considered as a 'worst-case scenario', but this opinion is now challenged because none of the DEM derivatives investigated in the study had maximum variation with spatially uncorrelated random error. Sig-nificant performance improvement was achieved in simulation-based error propagation analysis by applying process convolution in generating realisations of the DEM error model. In addition, typology of uncertainty in drainage basin delineations is presented.
Resumo:
This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.
Resumo:
In cardiac myocytes (heart muscle cells), coupling of electric signal known as the action potential to contraction of the heart depends crucially on calcium-induced calcium release (CICR) in a microdomain known as the dyad. During CICR, the peak number of free calcium ions (Ca) present in the dyad is small, typically estimated to be within range 1-100. Since the free Ca ions mediate CICR, noise in Ca signaling due to the small number of free calcium ions influences Excitation-Contraction (EC) coupling gain. Noise in Ca signaling is only one noise type influencing cardiac myocytes, e.g., ion channels playing a central role in action potential propagation are stochastic machines, each of which gates more or less randomly, which produces gating noise present in membrane currents. How various noise sources influence macroscopic properties of a myocyte, how noise is attenuated and taken advantage of are largely open questions. In this thesis, the impact of noise on CICR, EC coupling and, more generally, macroscopic properties of a cardiac myocyte is investigated at multiple levels of detail using mathematical models. Complementarily to the investigation of the impact of noise on CICR, computationally-efficient yet spatially-detailed models of CICR are developed. The results of this thesis show that (1) gating noise due to the high-activity mode of L-type calcium channels playing a major role in CICR may induce early after-depolarizations associated with polymorphic tachycardia, which is a frequent precursor to sudden cardiac death in heart failure patients; (2) an increased level of voltage noise typically increases action potential duration and it skews distribution of action potential durations toward long durations in cardiac myocytes; and that (3) while a small number of Ca ions mediate CICR, Excitation-Contraction coupling is robust against this noise source, partly due to the shape of ryanodine receptor protein structures present in the cardiac dyad.
Resumo:
In the 21st century, human-induced global climate change has been highlighted as one of the most serious threats to ecosystems worldwide. According to global climate scenarios, the mean temperature in Finland is expected to increase by 1.8 4.0°C by the end of the century. The regional and seasonal change in temperature has predicted to be spatially and temporally asymmetric, where the High-Arctic and Antarctic areas and winter and spring seasons have been projected to face the highest temperature increase. To understand how species respond to the ongoing climate change, we need to study how climate affects species in different phases of their life cycle. The impact of climate on breeding and migration of eight large-sized bird species was studied in this thesis, taking food availability into account. The findings show that climatic variables have considerable impact on the life-history traits of large-sized birds in northern Europe. The magnitude of climatic effects on migration and breeding was comparable with that of food supply, conventionally regarded as the main factor affecting these life-history traits. Based on the results of this thesis and the current climate scenarios, the following not mutually exclusive responses are possible in the near future. Firstly, asymmetric climate change may result in a mistiming of breeding because mild winters and early spring may lead to earlier breeding, whereas offspring are hatching into colder conditions which elevate mortality. Secondly, climate induced responses can differ between species with different breeding tactics (income vs. capital breeding), so that especially capital breeders can gain advantage on global warming as they can sustain higher energy resources. Thirdly, increasing precipitation has the potential to reduce the breeding success of many species by exposing nestlings to more severe post-hatching conditions and hampering the hunting conditions of parents. Fourthly, decreasing ice cover and earlier ice-break in the Baltic Sea will allow earlier spring migration in waterfowl. In eiders, this can potentially lead to more productive breeding. Fifthly, warming temperatures can favour parents preparing for breeding and increase nestling survival. Lastly, the climate-induced phenological changes in life history events will likely continue. Furthermore, interactions between climate and food resources can be complex and interact with each other. Eiders provide an illustrative example of this complexity, being caught in the crossfire between more benign ice conditions and lower salinity negatively affecting their prime food resource. The general conclusion is that climate is controlling not only the phenology of the species but also their reproductive output, thus affecting the entire population dynamics.
Resumo:
The composition of the carnivore community influences the different forms of inter-specific interactions. Furthermore, inter-specific interactions of carnivores have important implications for intra-guild competition, epidemiology and strategies of species-specific population management. Zoonooses, such as rabies, are diseases that can be transmitted from wildlife to people. Knowing the ecological characteristics of the species helps us to choose the right preventive actions and to time them accurately. In this thesis, I have studied how raccoon dogs Nyctereutes procyonoides, European badgers Meles meles, red foxes Vulpes vulpes and domestic cats Felis silvestris catus act as members of carnivore community, and how these interactions relate to the transmission risk of rabies. In the study area, these species form a community of medium-sized and rather generalist predators. They live in the same areas, in spatially and temporally overlapping home ranges and use the same habitats and dens and even have similar diets. However, there is no direct evidence of competition. Shared dens point to good tolerance of other species. Numerous observations of animals moving in each other’s proximity give similar clues. However, overlapping home ranges and similar habitat preferences lead to frequent inter-specific contacts, which increase the risk of possible rabies transmission. Also, the new insight of habitat use gained by this study illustrates the similar favouring of deciduous forests and fields by these sympatric medium-sized carnivores, creating a basis for contact zones, i.e. risky habitats for rabies transmission and spread. This study is so far the only simultaneous radio tracking study of raccoon dogs, badgers, foxes and cats. These results give new insight of the interactions in the carnivore community, as well as of the behaviour of each individual species. Also, these results have significant implications for the planning of rabies control. In order to reach viable management decisions, not only one or two species should be taken into consideration, but the whole community. In particular, this changes the perspective to inter-specific contacts, animal densities, densities of individuals susceptible to diseases and the magnitude of preventive actions. Rabies should be considered as a multi-vector disease, at least in Finland and the Baltic states. It is of interest for disease management to be able to model an epizootic with local parameters to reflect the real situation and also to suite best the local management needs.