Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Phylogeography and hybrid swarms: history of brackish water bivalve diversity in North European marginal seas

This study addressed the large-scale molecular zoogeography in two brackish water bivalve molluscs, Macoma balthica and Cerastoderma glaucum, and genetic signatures of the postglacial colonization of Northern Europe by them. The traditional view poses that M. balthica in the Baltic, White and Barents seas (i.e. marginal seas) represent direct postglacial descendants of the adjacent Northeast Atlantic populations, but this has recently been challenged by observations of close genetic affinities between these marginal populations and those of the Northeast Pacific. The primary aim of the thesis was to verify, quantify and characterize the Pacific genetic contribution across North European populations of M. balthica and to resolve the phylogeographic histories of the two bivalve taxa in range-wide studies using information from mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and nuclear allozyme polymorphisms. The presence of recent Pacific genetic influence in M. balthica of the Baltic, White and Barents seas, along with an Atlantic element, was confirmed by mtDNA sequence data. On a broader temporal and geographical scale, altogether four independent trans-Arctic invasions of Macoma from the Pacific since the Miocene seem to have been involved in generating the current North Atlantic lineage diversity. The latest trans-Arctic invasion that affected the current Baltic, White and Barents Sea populations probably took place in the early post-glacial. The nuclear genetic compositions of these marginal sea populations are intermediate between those of pure Pacific and Atlantic subspecies. In the marginal sea populations of mixed ancestry (Barents, White and Northern Baltic seas), the Pacific and Atlantic components are now randomly associated in the genomes of individual clams, which indicates both pervasive historical interbreeding between the previously long-isolated lineages (subspecies), and current isolation of these populations from the adjacent pure Atlantic populations. These mixed populations can be characterized as self-supporting hybrid swarms, and they arguably represent the most extensive marine animal hybrid swarms so far documented. Each of the three swarms still has a distinct genetic composition, and the relative Pacific contributions vary from 30 to 90 % in local populations. This diversity highlights the potential of introgressive hybridization to rapidly give rise to new evolutionarily and ecologically significant units in the marine realm. In the south of the Danish straits and in the Southern Baltic Sea, a broad genetic transition zone links the pure North Sea subspecies M. balthica rubra to the inner Baltic hybrid swarm, which has about 60 % of Pacific contribution in its genome. This transition zone has no regular smooth clinal structure, but its populations show strong genotypic disequilibria typical of a hybrid zone maintained by the interplay of selection and gene flow by dispersing pelagic larvae. The structure of the genetic transition is partly in line with features of Baltic water circulation and salinity stratification, with greater penetration of Atlantic genes on the Baltic south coast and in deeper water populations. In all, the scenarios of historical isolation and secondary contact that arise from the phylogeographic studies of both Macoma and Cerastoderma shed light to the more general but enigmatic patterns seen in marine phylogeography, where deep genetic breaks are often seen in species with high dispersal potential.

The Saintly Madman : A Study of the Scholarly Reception History of Buile Shuibhne

This study examines the scholarly reception history of an early Irish text, Buile Shuibhne (The Frenzy of Suibhne), by focusing on the various theoretical and methodological presuppositions which have determined the scholars’ understanding of the text’s religious allegorical significance in the course of the 20th century. The reception-oriented inquiry takes the intersubjective aspect of literary interpretation as the basis for accentuating the importance of communally shared presumptions and reading strategies in the explication of interpretive variety. The materials of the study have been divided into four frameworks of interpretation: historical, pre-Christian, Christian and anthropological. This heuristic division does not denote mutually exclusive paradigms, but rather refers to perceived similarities within each group regarding the questions posed, and the evidence adduced, in textual analysis. The historical framework concentrates on the issues of the origins of the tale and the possible historicity of its main protagonist. The pre-Christian framework covers the theories of the shamanic, Indo-European and Celtic elements in the text, whereas the Christian framework includes readings emphasising the biblical, monastic and ascetic aspects of the tale. The anthropological framework in turn focuses on the parallels drawn between the narrative and the universal structure of the rites of passage. In addition to the examination of these four frameworks, the study also links the question of methodology with wider issues of authorship and textual integrity, and critically reconsiders the manner in which J.G. O'Keeffe's 1913 edition of the text has been reified in previous scholarship as a representation of a 12th century authorial original. The overall objective of the present case-study is to relate theoretical conceptions of literary theory, comparative religion and historiography to the study of early Irish narrative material by considering the communal and institutional dimension of meaning-making, and the implications of comparative methodology for historical research. In this aim, the prevailing methodological presuppositions informing the scholarly discourse on Buile Shuibhne are set against the wider context of Celtic Studies scholarship, in order to draw attention to the need to critically reflect upon the operations of knowledge production in future research.

The effects of environmental factors on biomass and microcystin production by the freshwater cyanobacterial genera Microcystis and Anabaena

Several cyanobacterial genera produce the hepatotoxins, microcystins. Microcystins are produced only in cells that have microcystin synthetase gene (mcy) clusters, which encode enzyme complexes involved in microcystin biosynthesis. Microcystin-producing and nonmicrocystin-producing genotypes of single cyanobacterial genus may occur simultaneously in situ. Previously, the effects of environmental factors on the growth and microcystin production of cyanobacteria have mainly been studied by means of isolated cyanobacteria cultures in the laboratory. Studies in the field have been difficult, owing to the lack of methods to identify and quantify the different genotypes. In this study, genus-specific microcystin synthetase E (mcyE) gene primers were designed and a method to identify and quantify the mcyE copy numbers was developed and used in situ. Microcystis and Anabaena mcyE genes were observed in two Finnish lakes. Microcystis appeared to be the most abundant microcystin producer in Lake Tuusulanjärvi and in one basin of Lake Hiidenvesi. Because the most potent microcystin-producing genus of a lake can be identified, it will be possible in the future to design genus-targeted strategies for lake restoration. Effects of P and N concentrations on the biomass of microcystin-producing and nonmicrocystin-producing Microcystis strains and an Anabaena strain were studied in cultures. P and N concentrations and their combined effect increased cyanobacterial biomass of all Microcystis strains. The biomass of microcystin-producing Microcystis was higher than that of nonmicrocystin-producing strains at high nutrient concentrations. The P concentration increased Anabaena biomass, but the effect of N concentration was statistically insignificant for growth yield, probably due to the ability of the genus to fix molecular N2. P and N concentrations and combined nutrients caused an increase in cellular microcystin concentrations of the Microcystis strain cultivated in chemostat cultures. Cyanobacteria are able to hydrolyse nutrients from organic matter through extracellular enzyme activities. Leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) activity was observed in an axenic N2-fixing Anabaena strain grown in batch cultures. The P concentration caused a statistically significant increase in LAP activity, whereas the effect of N concentration was insignificant. The highest LAP activities were observed in the most eutrophic basins of Lake Hiidenvesi. LAP activity probably originated mostly from attached heterotrophic bacteria and less from cyanobacteria.

Development of analytical techniques for studies on dispersion of actinides in the environment and characterization of environmental radioactive particles

Radioactive particles from three locations were investigated for elemental composition, oxidation states of matrix elements, and origin. Instrumental techniques applied to the task were scanning electron microscopy, X-ray and gamma-ray spectrometry, secondary ion mass spectrometry, and synchrotron radiation based microanalytical techniques comprising X-ray fluorescence spectrometry, X-ray fluorescence tomography, and X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy. Uranium-containing low activity particles collected from Irish Sea sediments were characterized in terms of composition and distribution of matrix elements and the oxidation states of uranium. Indications of the origin were obtained from the intensity ratios and the presence of thorium, uranium, and plutonium. Uranium in the particles was found to exist mostly as U(IV). Studies on plutonium particles from Runit Island (Marshall Islands) soil indicated that the samples were weapon fuel fragments originating from two separate detonations: a safety test and a low-yield test. The plutonium in the particles was found to be of similar age. The distribution and oxidation states of uranium and plutonium in the matrix of weapon fuel particles from Thule (Greenland) sediments were investigated. The variations in intensity ratios observed with different techniques indicated more than one origin. Uranium in particle matrixes was mostly U(IV), but plutonium existed in some particles mainly as Pu(IV), and in others mainly as oxidized Pu(VI). The results demonstrated that the various techniques were effectively applied in the characterization of environmental radioactive particles. An on-line method was developed for separating americium from environmental samples. The procedure utilizes extraction chromatography to separate americium from light lanthanides, and cation exchange to concentrate americium before the final separation in an ion chromatography column. The separated radiochemically pure americium fraction is measured by alpha spectrometry. The method was tested with certified sediment and soil samples and found to be applicable for the analysis of environmental samples containing a wide range of Am-241 activity. Proceeding from the on-line method developed for americium, a method was also developed for separating plutonium and americium. Plutonium is reduced to Pu(III), and separated together with Am(III) throughout the procedure. Pu(III) and Am(III) are eluted from the ion chromatography column as anionic dipicolinate and oxalate complexes, respectively, and measured by alpha spectrometry.

Effects of environmental variation on ecological and evolutionary dynamics

Environmental variation is a fact of life for all the species on earth: for any population of any particular species, the local environmental conditions are liable to vary in both time and space. In today's world, anthropogenic activity is causing habitat loss and fragmentation for many species, which may profoundly alter the characteristics of environmental variation in remaining habitat. Previous research indicates that, as habitat is lost, the spatial configuration of remaining habitat will increasingly affect the dynamics by which populations are governed. Through the use of mathematical models, this thesis asks how environmental variation interacts with species properties to influence population dynamics, local adaptation, and dispersal evolution. More specifically, we couple continuous-time continuous-space stochastic population dynamic models to landscape models. We manipulate environmental variation via parameters such as mean patch size, patch density, and patch longevity. Among other findings, we show that a mixture of high and low quality habitat is commonly better for a population than uniformly mediocre habitat. This conclusion is justified by purely ecological arguments, yet the positive effects of landscape heterogeneity may be enhanced further by local adaptation, and by the evolution of short-ranged dispersal. The predicted evolutionary responses to environmental variation are complex, however, since they involve numerous conflicting factors. We discuss why the species that have high levels of local adaptation within their ranges may not be the same species that benefit from local adaptation during range expansion. We show how habitat loss can lead to either increased or decreased selection for dispersal depending on the type of habitat and the manner in which it is lost. To study the models, we develop a recent analytical method, Perturbation expansion, to enable the incorporation of environmental variation. Within this context, we use two methods to address evolutionary dynamics: Adaptive dynamics, which assumes mutations occur infrequently so that the ecological and evolutionary timescales can be separated, and via Genotype distributions, which assume mutations are more frequent. The two approaches generally lead to similar predictions yet, exceptionally, we show how the evolutionary response of dispersal behaviour to habitat turnover may qualitatively depend on the mutation rate.

Carabid beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae) as indicators of environmental change in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar

Growing human populations and increasing exploitation of natural resources threaten nature all over the world. Tropical countries are especially vulnerable to human impact because of the high number of species, most of these endemic and still unknown. Madagascar is one of the centers of high biodiversity and renowned for its unique species. However, during the last centuries many endemic species have gone extinct and more are endangered. Because of high natural values, Madagascar is one of the global conservation priorities. The establishment of Ranomafana National Park (RNP) was intended to preserve the unique nature of Madagascar. Containing several endemic and threatened species, Ranomafana has been selected as one of UNESCO’s World Natural Heritage sites. However, due to strong human pressures the region immediately surroundings the protected area has severely degraded. Aims of this thesis were to inventory carabid fauna in RNP and evaluate their use as indicators of the environmental change. Carabid beetles were collected from protected area (secondary and primary forests) and from its degraded surrounding area. Collecting was mostly conducted by hand during years 2000-2005. Species compositions between the protected area and its surroundings were compared, and species habitat preferences and seasonal variations were studied. In total, 4498 individuals representing 127 carabid species (of which 38 are new species) were collected. Species compositions within and outside of the protected area were markedly different. Most of the species preferred forest as their primary habitat and were mainly collected from trees and bushes. Their value as indicators is based on their different habitat requirements and sensitivity to environmental variables. Some of the species were found only in the protected forest, some occupied also the degraded forests and some preferred open areas. Carabid fauna is very species rich in Ranomafana and there are still many species to be found. Most of the species are arboreal and probably cannot survive in the deforested areas outside the park. This is very likely also the case for other species. Establishment and continued protection of RNP is probably the only way to conserve this globally important area. However, new occupations and land use methods are urgently needed by the local people for improving their own lives while maintaining the forest intact.

Vascular dilatory function and cardiovascular risk factors in women with a history of pre-eclampsia

Women with a history of pre-eclampsia have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease in later life. The mechanisms which mediate this heightened risk are poorly understood; it was long believed that pre-eclampsia was a separate disease without any connection to other pathologies. The present study was undertaken to investigate the cardiovascular risk milieu, vascular dilatory function and cardiovascular risk factors, in women with pre-eclampsia, 5 6 years after index pregnancy. The aim was to understand better the cardiovascular risks associated with pre-eclampsia and add tools to the evaluation of cardiovascular risk in women. --- The study involved 30 women with previous severe pre-eclampsia and 21 controls. The 2-day study protocol included venous occlusion plethysmography and pulse wave analysis for assessment of vascular dilatory function and central pulse wave reflection, respectively, office and ambulatory blood pressure measurements, assessment of insulin sensitivity, using a minimal model technique, and tests regarding renal function, lipid metabolism, sympathetic activity and inflammation. Vasodilatory function was impaired in women with a history of pre-eclampsia; this was seen in both endothelium-dependent and endothelium-independent vasodilatation. Proteinuria during pre-eclampsia did not predict changes in vasodilatation, and renal function was similar in the two groups. Insulin sensitivity was related to vasodilatation and features of metabolic syndrome, but only in the patient group, despite similar insulin sensitivity in the control group. Arterial pressure was higher in the patient group than in the controls and correlated with endothelin-1 levels in the patient group, whilst the overall difference between the groups was diminished in 24 hour arterial pressure measurements. Additionally, women with previous pre-eclampsia were characterized by increased sympathetic activity. Impaired vasodilatory function at the vascular smooth muscle level seems to characterize clinically healthy women with a history of pre-eclampsia. These vascular changes and the features of metabolic syndrome may be related to the increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, increased blood pressure in combination with enhanced sympathetic activity may be additive as regards this risk. These women should be informed about their potential cardiovascular risk profile and the possibilities to minimize it via their own actions. Medical cardiovascular risk assessment in women should include obstetric history.

Between West and East: A Social History of Business Journalism in Cold War Finland

The Cold War era was characterized by ideological struggles that had a major impact on economic decision-making, and also on management practice. To date, however, these ideological struggles have received little attention from management and organizational scholars. To partially fill this research gap, we focus on the role of the media in these ideological struggles. Our starting point is that the media both reflect more general societal debates but also act as an agency promoting specific kinds of ideas and ideologies. In this sense, the media exercise significant power in society; this influece, however, is often subtle and easily dismissed in historical analyses focusing on political and corporate decision-making. In this article, we focus on the role of business journalism in the ideological struggles of the Cold War era. Our case in point is Finland, which is arguably a particularly interesting example due to its geo-political position between East and West. Our approach is socio-historical: we focus on the emergence and development of business journalism in the context of the specific struggles in the Finnish political and economic fields. Our analysis shows how the business journalists struggled between nationalist, pro-Soviet and pro-West political forces, but gradually developed into an increasingly influential force promoting neo-liberal ideology.

Towards a Conceptual History of Narrative

The article outlines a conceptual history of narrative, in particular the changes over the movement called “narrative turn” in the social sciences. According to Quentin Skinner, conceptual changes may take place on three separate levels: by changing the criteria of the concept, by changing the range of reference, and by changing the appraisal of the concept. Recent theorizing on narrative epitomizes all of these levels, but unevenly. In spite of the rhetoric of interdisciplinarity, two almost totally separate traditions of narrative theory persist: the narratological and the narrative-turn theories. Paradoxically, the narrative turn literature has radicalized the range of reference of narrative by attaching the concept to life and identity, but has left the criteria of the concept practically intact. This has extended the reign of a simplified Aristotelian concept of narrative as a chain of beginnings, middles, and ends. The narratological tradition of theorizing, instead, has debated extensively on the correct criteria of the concept, but enlarged the range of reference rather in the direction of cognition.