Strategic bidding in electricity markets: an agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Scenario analysis in evaluation of emerging technology - Case Bluetooth

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää millaisia ympäristöskenaarioita tietoliikenteelle toimialana voidaan rakentaa ja mitkä näistä skenaarioista suosivat Bluetoothin diffuusiota ja kehittymistä nykyisten tuote- ja palvelunäkemysten valossa. Lisäksi pyrittiin arvioimaan, mitkä ympäristötekijät ja suuntaukset saattavat vaikuttaa Bluetoothin diffuusioon. Tutkimus rajoittui eurooppalaisen tietoliikenneympäristön tarkasteluun viiden vuoden aikana. Tietoliikennetoimialan nykytilaa ja tulevaisuutta koskevan kirjallisuuden pohjalta luotiin kolme alustavaa skenaariorunkoa. Näitä runkoja arvioitiin asiantuntijahaastattelujen avulla, jotta skenaarioista saataisiin monipuolisempia ja niiden johdonmukaisuutta voitaisiin parantaa. Lopullisia skenaarioita verrattiin Bluetoothin käyttökohteista esitettyihin näkemyksiin. Skenaarioiden teemat olivat “Fokusoidut bisnessovellukset”, “Viihdettä massoille” sekä “Tietoa kaikille”. Havaittiin, että Bluetoothin omaksumiseen vaikuttavat eniten seuraavat tekijät: teknologian sosiaalinen hyväksyntä, toimialan halukkuus teknologian edistämiseen sekä Bluetoothin ja sen kilpailijoiden kehittyminen jatkossa.

Use of scenario analysis in studying emerging technology – Case Grid computing

Tutkimuksen selvitettiin miten skenaarioanalyysia voidaan käyttää uuden teknologian tutkimisessa. Työssä havaittiin, että skenaarioanalyysin soveltuvuuteen vaikuttaa eniten teknologisen muutoksen taso ja saatavilla olevan tiedon luonne. Skenaariomenetelmä soveltuu hyvin uusien teknologioiden tutkimukseen erityisesti radikaalien innovaatioiden kohdalla. Syynä tähän on niihin liittyvä suuri epävarmuus, kompleksisuus ja vallitsevan paradigman muuttuminen, joiden takia useat muut tulevaisuuden tutkimuksen menetelmät eivät ole tilanteessa käyttökelpoisia. Työn empiirisessä osiossa tutkittiin hilaverkkoteknologian tulevaisuutta skenaarioanalyysin avulla. Hilaverkot nähtiin mahdollisena disruptiivisena teknologiana, joka radikaalina innovaationa saattaa muuttaa tietokonelaskennan nykyisestä tuotepohjaisesta laskentakapasiteetin ostamisesta palvelupohjaiseksi. Tällä olisi suuri vaikutus koko nykyiseen ICT-toimialaan erityisesti tarvelaskennan hyödyntämisen ansiosta. Tutkimus tarkasteli kehitystä vuoteen 2010 asti. Teorian ja olemassa olevan tiedon perusteella muodostettiin vahvaan asiantuntijatietouteen nojautuen neljä mahdollista ympäristöskenaariota hilaverkoille. Skenaarioista huomattiin, että teknologian kaupallinen menestys on vielä monen haasteen takana. Erityisesti luottamus ja lisäarvon synnyttäminen nousivat tärkeimmiksi hilaverkkojen tulevaisuutta ohjaaviksi tekijöiksi.

Scenario Analysis of the Location Based Services Industry

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli luoda erilaisia skenaariota paikka riippuvaisten palveluiden toimialan tulevaisuudesta. Tunnistamalla nykyisiä sekä tulevia alaa edistäviä ja rajoittavia tekijöitä kolme skenaariota luotiin, jotka mahdollisesti kuvaisivat paikka riippuvaisten palveluiden toimialaa viiden vuoden päästä: "Massa spämmaus", "Raju operaattori kilpailu - nousevia yksityisyyden huolia" sekä "Nokian ajama kolmannen sukupolven verkot tulevat ennen odotettua" Skenaarioiden luomiseksi ensimmäinen osa tutkimuksesta keskittyi erilaisiin skenaarioiden kirjoitus prosesseihin ja niissä huomioitaviin asioihin. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksiin sopiva skenaarion kirjoitusprosessi esiteltiin, minkä jälkeen| paikkariippuvaisten palveluiden toimialaa käsiteltiin. Lopuksi itse skenaariot esiteltiin ja nimettiin skenaarioiden teemojen mukaan. Tutkimuksen johtopäätös on, ettei toimialan tulevaisuutta voida ennustaa riittävällä varmuudella. Tutkimuksen arvo kuitenkin piilee sen antamassa ymmärryksessä liittyen tekijöihin, jotka tulevat päättämään alan tulevaisuuden sekä skenaariossa, joita nämä tekijät voivat muodostaa.

Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) conservation) and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata) conservation). This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options that specify deferment and timing of harvest for large blocks helped ensure the stable presence of an intact mature forest matrix over time. The management scenario that focused on maintaining compositional targets best supported biodiversity objectives by providing the composition patterns required by the 13 focal species, but this scenario may be improved by adding some broad-scale spatial objectives to better maintain large blocks of interior forest habitat through time.

Catchment phosphorous losses: an export coefficient modelling approach with scenario analysis for water management

This paper presents the development of an export coefficient model to characterise the rates and sources of P export from land to water in four reservoir systems located in a semi-arid rural region in southern of Portugal. The model was developed to enable effective management of these important water resource systems under the EU Water Framework Directive. This is the first time such an approach has been fully adapted for the semi-arid systems typical of Mediterranean Europe. The sources of P loading delivered to each reservoir from its catchment were determined and scenario analysis was undertaken to predict the likely impact of catchment management strategies on the scale of rate of P loading delivered to each water body from its catchment. The results indicate the importance of farming and sewage treatment works/collective septic tanks discharges as the main contributors to the total diffuse and point source P loading delivered to the reservoirs, respectively. A reduction in the total P loading for all study areas would require control of farming practices and more efficient removal of P from human wastes prior to discharge to surface waters. The scenario analysis indicates a strategy based solely on reducing the agricultural P surplus may result in only a slow improvement in water quality, which would be unlikely to support the generation of good ecological status in reservoirs. The model application indicates that a reduction of P-inputs to the reservoirs should first focus on reducing P loading from sewage effluent discharges through the introduction of tertiary treatment (P-stripping) in all major residential areas. The fully calibrated export coefficient modelling approach transferred well to semi-arid regions, with the only significant limitation being the availability of suitable input data to drive the model. Further studies using this approach in semi-arid catchments are now needed to increase the knowledge of nutrient export behaviours in semi-arid regions.

General practitioners' role in preventive medicine: scenario analysis using alcohol as a case study

The purpose of this analysis is threefold: first, to extract from the literature, current levels of GP detection of at-risk drinking by their patients, rates at which general practitioners (GPs) offer an intervention; and the effectiveness of these interventions; secondly, to develop a model based on this literature to be used in conjunction with scenario analysis; and thirdly, to consider the cost implications of current efforts and various scenarios. This study deals specifically with Australian general practice. A two-step procedure is used in the scenario analysis, which involves identifying opportunities for detection, intervention, effectiveness and assigning probabilities to outcomes. The results suggest that increasing rates of GP intervention achieves greatest benefit and return on resource use. For every 5% point increase in the rate of GP intervention, an additional 26 754 at-risk drinkers modify their drinking behaviour at a cost of $231.45 per patient. This compares with a cost per patient modifying drinking behaviour of $232.60 and $208.31 for every 5% point increase in the rates of detection and effectiveness, respectively. The knowledge, skill and attitude of practitioners toward drinking are significant, and they can be the prime motivators in persuading their patients to modify drinking behaviour.

Uncertainty Management in Acquisitions: What Scenario Analysis Could Offer

This study answers to How scenario analysis could help acquiring companies to reduce uncertainty in the acquisition process? It is due to the mismatch between academic world’s caveat emptor and business world’s eagerness to pursue acquisitions that motivated this study. Acquisitions are as popular as ever, thus, managing the uncertainty surrounding these transactions is relevant. This study creates a generic theoretical model with a strategy-level scope. Thus, the study does not discuss nor does it seek answers to operational issues related in both fields. This study is explorative and constructivist in nature. It discusses briefly the concepts and relatedness of risk and uncertainty and establishes a hierarchy between these two: Risks being a “sub-section” of uncertainty, although not with clear boundaries. Acquisition theory follows the process view that understands acquisitions as a process with various levels – some strategic, some operational. Scenario analysis is presented as tool for management to enrich their strategic discussion and understand their future options. The empirical data collection is done through interviewing. The results are reflected on literature on strategic management, scenario literature, and on a consultancy’s report picturing firm’s strategies in accordance with their acquisition processes. The study has an abductive approach as it tries to combine multiple views and generates discussion between literature review, interviews, the report, and second round of literature. The model suggests three propositions: First, at the strategic decision making level, when the decision whether or not to pursue an acquisition growth strategy has been made, it provides firms new data and enriches the strategic discussion. Second, when the acquisition strategy has been created, it can be applied as a tool to measure possible acquisition targets against the backdrop of the first set of scenarios. Third, due to the scenario analysis’ requirement to include people with various backgrounds and from multiple levels of the corporate hierarchy, it could help managers to avoid biases stemming from hubris.

Synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys scenarios in risk habitat megacity (RHM)

The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustainable development in megacities and urban agglomerations. The analysis of international scenario surveys is an essential component within RHM. The scenario analysis will be the basis and source for the development of own RHM-framework scenarios and for defining specific driving forces of change.

International bioenergy trade- scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and thesecond involved an international group. A heuristic, semi-structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes.The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi-layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial aspects related the scenarios and foreseeing the scales and directions of biomass streams.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.