Käyttöpääoman ennustaminen kysyntäennusteen avulla

Työn tavoite on selvittää erilaisia käyttöpääoman ennustusmalleja, jotka pohjautuvat kysyntäennusteeseen. Tavoitteena on esittää malleja niin pitkän kuin lyhyenkin aikavälin ennustamiseen. Pitkällä aikavälillä mallien on tarkoitus ennustaa yrityksissä sitoutuvan käyttöpääoman kokonaistarvetta, kun taas lyhyen aikavälin malleilla pureudutaan käyttöpääomaerien (lopputuotevarasto ja myyntisaamiset) ennustamiseen tuotekohtaisesti. Työssä pyritään myös vastaamaan, miksi käyttöpääomaa kannattaa ennustaa ja miten sen hallintaa voidaan tehostaa. Työ on toteutettu kirjallisuuskatsauksena, mitä on elävöitetty laskuesimerkein. Laskuesimerkkien tarkoitus on antaa lukijalle kuva käyttöpääoman ennustamisen todellisista mahdollisuuksista, jotta työ ei jäisi pelkäksi sanahelinäksi. Työssä esitetyt ennustusmallit on valittu matemaattisen yksinkertaisuutensa ehdolla, jotta niiden käyttäminen yritysmaailmassa olisi mahdollista. Käyttöpääomatarpeen ennustamisen suurimpana haasteena voidaan pitää kysyntäennusteen luotettavuutta. Vuositasolla käyttöpääomatarpeen keskimääräinen osuus suhteessa liikevaihtoon on helpohko ennustaa liiketoiminnan pysyessä melko vakiona. Tarve voi kuitenkin vaihdella hyvin paljon kysynnän vaihdellessa kuukausi-, viikko- ja päivätasolla. Jos kysyntäennustetta saadaan tarkennettua, lopputuotevaraston kokoa ja siihen sitoutuvaa käyttöpääomaa on mahdollista pienentää, koska varmuusvaraston määrittelyssä käytettävä hajonta pienenee. Myyntisaamisten osalta lähitulevaisuudessa sitoutuvaan käyttöpääomaan vaikuttaa eniten asiakaskohtainen maksukäyttäytyminen, koska myyntisaamisiin vaikuttava kysyntä on suurimmalta osaltaan jo toteutunut.

Brazilian Students and Working Capital: An Analysis of Their Decisions When Using Virtual Market Business Games

This study aims to demonstrate that data from business games can be an important resource for improving efficiency and effectiveness of learning. The proposal presented here was developed from preliminary studies of data from Virtual Market games that pointed the possibility of identifying gaps in learning by analyzing the decisions of students. This proposal helps students to refine their learning processes and equips tutors with strategies for teaching and student assessment. The proposal also complements the group discussion and/or debriefing, which are widely used to enhance learning mediated by games. However, from a management perspective the model has the potential to be erroneous and miss opportunities, which cannot be detected because of the dependence on the characteristics of the individual, such as ability to communicate and work together. To illustrate the proposed technique, data sets from two business games were analyzed with the focus on managing working capital and it was found that students had difficulties managing this task. Similar trends were observed in all categories of students in the study-undergraduate, postgraduate and specialization. This discovery led us to the analysis of data for decisions made in the performance of the games, and it was determined that indicators could be developed that were capable of indentifying inconsistencies in the decisions. It was decided to apply some basic concepts of the finance management, such as management of the operational and non-operational expenditures, as well as production management concepts, such as the use of the production capacity. By analyzing the data from the Virtual Market games using the indicator concept, it was possible to detect the lack of domain knowledge of the students. Therefore, these indicators can be used to analyze the decisions of the players and guide them during the game, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency. As these indicators were developed from specific content, they can also be used to develop teaching materials to support learning. Viewed in this light, the proposal adds new possibilities for using business games in learning. In addition to the intrinsic learning that is achieved through playing the games, they also assist in driving the learning process. This study considers the applications and the methodology used.

Determinants of Financial Capital Use: Review of theories and implications for rural businesses. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 19, February 2012

This paper presents a review of financial economics literature and offers a comprehensive discussion and systematisation of determinants of financial capital use. In congruence with modern financial literature, it is acknowledged here that real and financial capital decisions are interdependent. While the fundamental role of the (unconstrained) demand for real capital in the demand for finance is acknowledged, the deliverable focuses on three complementary categories of the determinants of financial capital use: i) capital market imperfections; ii) factors mitigating these imperfections or their impacts; and iii) firm- and sector-related factors, which alter the severity of financial constraints and their effects. To address the question of the optimal choice of financial instruments, theories of firm capital structure are reviewed. The deliverable concludes with theory-derived implications for agricultural and non-agricultural rural business’ finance.

Drivers of agricultural capital productivity in selected EU member states. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 30, September 2012

The aim of this Working Paper is to provide an empirical analysis of the marginal return on working capital and fixed capital in agriculture, based on data gathered by the Farm Accountancy Data Network from seven EU member states. Particular emphasis is placed on the detection of credit market imperfections. The key idea is to provide farm group-specific estimates of the shadow price of capital, and to use these to analyse the drivers of on-farm capital use in European agriculture. Based on Cobb Douglas estimates of farm-type specific production functions, we find that working capital is typically used in more than economically optimal quantities and often displays negative marginal returns across countries and farm types. This is less often the case with regard to fixed capital, but it is only in a small set of sectors where access to fixed capital appears severely constrained. These sectors include field crop and mixed farms in Denmark, dairy farms in East Germany, as well as mixed farms in Italy and the UK. The relationship between farm financial indicators and the estimated shadow prices of capital varies considerably across countries and sectors. Among the farms with a high shadow price for fixed capital in Denmark, high debt levels and little owned land tended to induce more intensive capital use, which may reflect the liberal Danish banking system. In East Germany, Italy and the UK, high debt levels made farmers more tightly capital constrained. Hence, in the latter group of countries, more traditional mechanisms of capital allocation based on debt capacity seemed to be at work. As a general conclusion, EU agriculture appears to be characterised by overcapitalisation rather than by credit constraints.

Will improved access to capital dampen the need for more agricultural land? A CGE analysis of agricultural capital markets and world-wide biofuel policies. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 48, May 2013

This paper analyses the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers biofuel policies implemented as binding blending targets for transportation fuels. The chosen quantitative modelling approach is two-fold: it combines the analysis of biofuel policies in a multi-sectoral economic model (MAGNET) with systematic variation of the functioning of capital and labour markets. This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the application multi-sectoral modelling system with different assumptions on the mobility of factor markets allows for the observation of changes in economic indicators under different conditions of how factor markets work. Systematic variation of factor mobility indicates that the ‘burden’ of global biofuel policies is not equally distributed across different factors within agricultural production. Agricultural land, as the pre-dominant and sector-specific factor, is, regardless of different degrees of inter-sectoral or intra-sectoral factor mobility, the most important factor limiting the expansion of agricultural production. More capital and higher employment in agriculture will ease the pressure on additional land use – but only partly. To expand agricultural production at global scale requires both land and mobile factors adapted to increase total factor productivity in agriculture in the most efficient way.

The history of Mexico, from the Spanish conquest to the present era; containing a condensed and connected general view of the manners, customs, religion, commerce, soil, and agriculture - animal, vegetable, and mineral productions - a concise political and statistical review of the changes effected in that country, with is present form of government, &c. &c. - Also, observations, speculative and practical, as to the best means of working the Mexican mines, by a combination of British talent, capital, and machinery.

Mode of access: Internet.

The role of social capital in reducing negative health outcomes among police officers

This paper investigates the role of social capital on the reduction of short and long run negative health effects associated with stress, as well as indicators of burnout among police officers. Despite the large volume of research on either social capital or the health effects of stress, the interaction of these factors remains an underexplored topic. In this empirical analysis we aim to reduce such a shortcoming focusing on a highly stressful and emotionally draining work environment, namely law enforcement agents who perform as an essential part of maintaining modern society. Using a multivariate regression analysis focusing on three different proxies of health and three proxies for social capital conducting also several robustness checks, we find strong evidence that increased levels of social capital is highly correlated with better health outcomes. Additionally we observe that while social capital at work is very important, social capital in the home environment and work-life balance are even more important. From a policy perspective, our findings suggest that work and stress programs should actively encourage employees to build stronger social networks as well as incorporate better working/home life arrangements.

Youth theatre and the articulation of cultural capital : refocusing Bourdieu through ethnography

This study of working-class and middle-class youth theatre workshops examines the processes through which this cultural form is appropriated by different class groups. Whereas the middle-class workshop proceeded efficiently and harmoniously, the working-class group resisted a number of institutional constraints traditionally associated with play rehearsal and performance. The processes of such symbolic struggle in the working-class group appeared to differ from Bourdieu's account of cultural domination. The article explores the explanatory contribution of the ethnographic case study to the analysis of the class basis of cultural tastes and practices and suggest that Bourdieu's account of class relations would gain from inclusion of this level of analysis. The situated study of the youth theatre workshops suggests that at this level, there is possibly more scope for symbolic struggle between the classes than was found by Bourdieu.

The Impact of New Capital Requirements on the Portfolio Decisions of Finnish Pension Institutions

This paper examines the potential impact of new capital requirements on asset allocations of Finnish pension institutions. We describe the new requirements and consider portfolio construction to minimize regulatory capital, given the investor’s preferred level of expected return. Results identify portfolio transactions that enhance expected return without increasing capital needs. Regulation calls for portfolio diversification and prudence in management, but this paper shows that market participants can exploit inconsistencies in regulation. Possible future consequences include capital outflows from the pension system and an unintended decrease in pre-funding of old-age pensions.

Land Ownership, Working Capital, and the Agricultural Output: Egypt, 1913-1958.

A simple model is constructed in which short-term credit is needed to finance the purchase of inputs, in which there is bankruptcy risk, and in which we argue were important characteristics of Egyptian agriculture during the first half of this century, result in aggregate agricultural output being dependant on the distribution of land ownership. The main theorical insight is that aggregate agricultural output will be increased by a decrease in the inequality of the distribution of land ownership when returns to scale are decreasing. Testable short- and long-run empirical propositions are formulated and carefully tested on Egyptian data for the 1913-1958 period. We find that, controlling for factor inputs, there is no tradeoff between equity and efficiency for Egyptian agriculture - they go hand in hand in the short run.

Land Ownership, Working Capital, and the Agricultural Output: Egypt, 1913-1958.

A simple model is constructed in which short-term credit is needed to finance the purchase of inputs, in which there is bankruptcy risk, and in which we argue were important characteristics of Egyptian agriculture during the first half of this century, result in aggregate agricultural output being dependant on the distribution of land ownership. The main theorical insight is that aggregate agricultural output will be increased by a decrease in the inequality of the distribution of land ownership when returns to scale are decreasing. Testable short- and long-run empirical propositions are formulated and carefully tested on Egyptian data for the 1913-1958 period. We find that, controlling for factor inputs, there is no tradeoff between equity and efficiency for Egyptian agriculture - they go hand in hand in the short run.

Impact of social capital on flexible work organisation models : comparative study of european countries. 'El impacto del capital social en modelos flexibles de organización del trabajo: un estudio comparativo de países europeos'.

Resumen basado en el de la publicación

The career competencies of self-initiated and assigned expatriates: assessing the development of career capital over time

Building on a modern careers approach, we assess the effects of working abroad on individuals’ career capital. Given the dearth of longitudinal studies, we return to a sample of economics graduates in Finland eight years later. We measure changes in three dimensions of career capital; ‘knowing how’, ‘knowing whom’, ‘knowing why’ and find that company assigned expatriates learn more than self-initiated expatriates. All three career capital areas benefit from international experience and all are increasingly valued over time. Based on our findings we conclude that a dynamic notion of career capital acquisition and use is needed. Managerial implications include the need for a wider view of talent management for international businesses.