Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

Nonlinear dynamics and chaotic motions in feedback-controlled two- and three-degree-of-freedom robots

The dynamics of a feedback-controlled rigid robot is most commonly described by a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. In this paper we analyze these equations, representing the feedback-controlled motion of two- and three-degrees-of-freedom rigid robots with revolute (R) and prismatic (P) joints in the absence of compliance, friction, and potential energy, for the possibility of chaotic motions. We first study the unforced or inertial motions of the robots, and show that when the Gaussian or Riemannian curvature of the configuration space of a robot is negative, the robot equations can exhibit chaos. If the curvature is zero or positive, then the robot equations cannot exhibit chaos. We show that among the two-degrees-of-freedom robots, the PP and the PR robot have zero Gaussian curvature while the RP and RR robots have negative Gaussian curvatures. For the three-degrees-of-freedom robots, we analyze the two well-known RRP and RRR configurations of the Stanford arm and the PUMA manipulator respectively, and derive the conditions for negative curvature and possible chaotic motions. The criteria of negative curvature cannot be used for the forced or feedback-controlled motions. For the forced motion, we resort to the well-known numerical techniques and compute chaos maps, Poincare maps, and bifurcation diagrams. Numerical results are presented for the two-degrees-of-freedom RP and RR robots, and we show that these robot equations can exhibit chaos for low controller gains and for large underestimated models. From the bifurcation diagrams, the route to chaos appears to be through period doubling.

Effects of Unionization on Graduate Student Employees: Faculty-Student Relations, Academic Freedom, and Pay

In cases involving unionization of graduate student research and teaching assistants at private U.S. universities, the National Labor Relations Board has, at times, denied collective bargaining rights on the presumption that unionization would harm faculty-student relations and academic freedom. Using survey data collected from PhD students in five academic disciplines across eight public U.S. universities, the authors compare represented and non-represented graduate student employees in terms of faculty-student relations, academic freedom, and pay. Unionization does not have the presumed negative effect on student outcomes, and in some cases has a positive effect. Union-represented graduate student employees report higher levels of personal and professional support, unionized graduate student employees fare better on pay, and unionized and nonunionized students report similar perceptions of academic freedom. These findings suggest that potential harm to faculty-student relationships and academic freedom should not continue to serve as bases for the denial of collective bargaining rights to graduate student employees.

Economic freedom and productivity growth in resource-rich economies

The focus of this paper is to test whether free market institutions that protect property rights and support freedom of choice and voluntary exchange can change the curse of natural resources into a blessing. To examine the above question, this paper uses the Fraser Institute's economic freedom index and its five sub-indices, namely government size, property rights, access to sound money, freedom to trade, and setting proper regulations. Using data from 99 sample countries over the period 1970-2010, the system GMM estimates suggest that the negative growth effects of resource rents may turn positive in countries with greater economic freedom.

A study to demonstrate freedom of Trichinella spp. in domestic pigs in Switzerland

Trichinellosis is a food-borne zoonotic disease caused by the nematode Trichinella spp. Many omnivorous and carnivorous animal species can act as host for this parasite, including domestic pigs. To protect public health, it should be ensured that pork should not contain infective Trichinella larvae. Surveillance for Trichinella spp. can be done using direct (larval detection) and indirect (antibody detection) diagnostic techniques. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the absence of infection in Swiss domestic pigs. An ELISA was used as the initial screening test, and sera reacting in ELISA were further investigated using both a Western blot for serology and an artificial digestion test with 20 g of diaphragm tissue for larval detection. A total of 7412 adult pigs, 9973 finishing pigs and 2779 free-ranging pigs were tested. Samples from 17 (0.23%) adult pigs, 16 (0.16%) finishing pigs and nine (0.32%) free-ranging pigs were ELISA-positive, but all of these sera were subsequently negative by Western blot and by the artificial digestion method. Based on these findings, an absence of Trichinella infections in adult pigs (target prevalence 0.04%) and finishing pigs (target prevalence 0.03%) can be concluded. The results also demonstrated that the prevalence of Trichinella infections does not exceed 0.11% in free-ranging pigs, the group with the highest risk of exposure.

Freedom Fries or Friendship Fries? : Franco-American Stereotypes and Meta-Stereotypes

This study explores Franco-American relations by examining Franco-American stereotypes. When American participants made ratings of what they think the French think of Americans, the results showed that Americans think the French see Americans in a very negative light. Yet, when the French participants rated what they think Americans think of the French, the result was fairly neutral. Both the French and Americans were found to be over-estimating how negatively they are actually viewed by the other group. If Americans think the French view them negatively and vice versa, these beliefs can permeate interpersonal interactions and can have a potentially negative effect. The results suggest that stereotypes play an important role in intergroup interactions and these findings have important implications for Franco-American relations.

A Qualitative Study of Potential Suicide Risk Factors Among Soldiers Transitioning From Operation Iraqi Freedom/Operation Enduring Freedom

Using qualitative methods, this study explored potential risk factors for suicide, as defined by Joiner's Interpersonal-Psychological Theory of Suicide (IPTS), in a population of Soldiers returning from deployment in Operation Enduring Freedom/Operation Iraqi Freedom (OEF/OIF). Sixty-eight Soldiers participated in semi-structured interviews during the period of transition from deployment to the garrison environment. These Soldiers were asked about changes in perception of pain, experiences of perceived burdensomeness, and lack of belonging. Interviews were transcribed and analyzed. A phenomenological methodology was employed (Creswell, 2006). In response to questions about perception of pain, Soldiers discussed both positive and negative changes in their experience of physical and emotional pain. When asked about experiences of perceived burdensomeness, Soldiers described changes related to deployment, such as injuries and combat related guilt, as well as changes related to transition from combat, including care seeking, reintegration into family and society, and emotional distancing. Regarding the experience of lack of belonging, Soldiers described difficulties related to the deployment, such as combat injuries, leadership roles, and individual differences, as well as difficulties related to reintegration such as symptoms of emotional numbing and distancing. Findings highlight the potential utility of IPTS in exploring both acute and chronic suicide risk factors associated with deployment and transition, as well as potential treatment strategies that may reduce suicide risk in the population of Soldiers during reintegration.

Does ICT promote democracy and economic freedom in Middle East?

This study investigates the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) expansion on economic and social freedom in the Middle East (Bahrain, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and United Arab Emirates) for the period of 1996 to 2005. This study is unique as it analyzes the effect of institutional resistance (governments’ restrictions) on ICT development, economic freedom and democracy. The results show that institutional resistance poses a significant negative effect on ICT development and democracy. Results also show that ICT expansion in Middle East has not only been effective in bridging the Digital Divide, but that it had a positive impact on promoting civil liberties and economic freedom in a region that is vulnerable to political, social, and global conflicts.

Freedom from equine infectious anaemia virus infection in Spanish Purebred horses

Introduction: No cases of equine infectious anaemia (EIA) have been reported in Spain since 1983. Factors that could increase the risk of reintroducing equine infectious anaemia virus (EIAV) into Spain include the recent occurrence of the disease in Europe and the absence of compulsory serological testing before importation into Spain. Aims and objectives: Given the importance of the Spanish Purebred (SP) horse breeding industry in Spain, the aim of this cross-sectional study was to provide evidence of freedom from EIAV in SP stud farms in Central Spain. Materials and methods: Serum samples from 555 SP horses, collected between September 2011 and November 2013, were tested using a commercially available EIAV ELISA with a published sensitivity of 100 per cent. Results: All 555 samples were negative for antibody to EIAV, providing evidence of a true EIAV seroprevalence between 0 per cent and 0.53 per cent (95% CIs of the sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA technique used Q10 were 100 per cent and 99.3 per cent, respectively) among the SP breeding population in Central Spain. Conclusions: These findings should serve to increase confidence when exporting SP horses to other countries.

An Investigation of Cognitive, Emotional and Negative Behavioural Responses to Service Recovery Strategies

Despite the best intentions of service providers and organisations, service delivery is rarely error-free. While numerous studies have investigated specific cognitive, emotional or behavioural responses to service failure and recovery, these studies do not fully capture the complexity of the services encounter. Consequently, this research develops a more holistic understanding of how specific service recovery strategies affect the responses of customers by combining two existing models—Smith & Bolton’s (2002) model of emotional responses to service performance and Fullerton and Punj’s (1993) structural model of aberrant consumer behaviour—into a conceptual framework. Specific service recovery strategies are proposed to influence consumer cognition, emotion and behaviour. This research was conducted using a 2x2 between-subjects quasi-experimental design that was administered via written survey. The experimental design manipulated two levels of two specific service recovery strategies: compensation and apology. The effect of the four recovery strategies were investigated by collecting data from 18-25 year olds and were analysed using multivariate analysis of covariance and multiple regression analysis. The results suggest that different service recovery strategies are associated with varying scores of satisfaction, perceived distributive justice, positive emotions, negative emotions and negative functional behaviour, but not dysfunctional behaviour. These finding have significant implications for the theory and practice of managing service recovery.