An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Robots for environmental monitoring : significant advancements and applications

Robotic systems are increasingly being utilised as fundamental data-gathering tools by scientists, allowing new perspectives and a greater understanding of the planet and its environmental processes. Today's robots are already exploring our deep oceans, tracking harmful algal blooms and pollution spread, monitoring climate variables, and even studying remote volcanoes. This article collates and discusses the significant advancements and applications of marine, terrestrial, and airborne robotic systems developed for environmental monitoring during the last two decades. Emerging research trends for achieving large-scale environmental monitoring are also reviewed, including cooperative robotic teams, robot and wireless sensor network (WSN) interaction, adaptive sampling and model-aided path planning. These trends offer efficient and precise measurement of environmental processes at unprecedented scales that will push the frontiers of robotic and natural sciences.

Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Can environmental constraints determine random patterns of plant species co-occurrence?

Plant community ecologists use the null model approach to infer assembly processes from observed patterns of species co-occurrence. In about a third of published studies, the null hypothesis of random assembly cannot be rejected. When this occurs, plant ecologists interpret that the observed random pattern is not environmentally constrained - but probably generated by stochastic processes. The null model approach (using the C-score and the discrepancy index) was used to test for random assembly under two simulation algorithms. Logistic regression, distance-based redundancy analysis, and constrained ordination were used to test for environmental determinism (species segregation along environmental gradients or turnover and species aggregation). This article introduces an environmentally determined community of alpine hydrophytes that presents itself as randomly assembled. The pathway through which the random pattern arises in this community is suggested to be as follows: Two simultaneous environmental processes, one leading to species aggregation and the other leading to species segregation, concurrently generate the observed pattern, which results to be neither aggregated nor segregated - but random. A simulation study supports this suggestion. Although apparently simple, the null model approach seems to assume that a single ecological factor prevails or that if several factors decisively influence the community, then they all exert their influence in the same direction, generating either aggregation or segregation. As these assumptions are unlikely to hold in most cases and assembly processes cannot be inferred from random patterns, we would like to propose plant ecologists to investigate specifically the ecological processes responsible for observed random patterns, instead of trying to infer processes from patterns

Micropollutants affect the ability of phytoplankton communities to track environmental changes

Human activities strongly influence environmental processes, and while human domination increases, biodiversity progressively declines in ecosystems worldwide. High genetic and phenotypic variability ensures functionality and stability of ecosystem processes through time and increases the resilience and the adaptive capacity of populations and communities, while a reduction in functional diversity leads to a decrease in the ability to respond in a changing environment. Pollution is becoming one of the major threats in aquatic ecosystem, and pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) in particular are a relatively new group of environmental contaminants suspected to have adverse effects on aquatic organisms. There is still a lake of knowledge on the responses of communities to complex chemical mixtures in the environment. We used an individual-trait-based approach to assess the response of a phytoplankton community in a scenario of combined pollution and environmental change (steady increasing in temperature). We manipulated individual-level trait diversity directly (by filtering out size classes) and indirectly (through exposure to PPCPs mixture), and studied how reduction in trait-diversity affected community structure, production of biomass and the ability of the community to track a changing environment. We found that exposure to PPCPs slows down the ability of the community to respond to an increasing temperature. Our study also highlights how physiological responses (induced by PPCPs exposure) are important for ecosystem processes: although from an ecological point of view experimental communities converged to a similar structure, they were functionally different.

Analysis of iodine-129 in environmental materials: Quality assurance and applications

The long-lived radionuclide 129I (T 1/2 = 15.7 My) occurs in the nature in very low concentrations. Since the middle of our century the environmental levels of 129I have been dramatically changed as a consequence of civil and military use of nuclear fission. Its investigation in environmental materials is of interest for environmental surveillance, retrospective dosimetry and for the use as a natural and man-made fracers of environmental processes. We are comparing two analytical methods which presently are capable of determining 129I in environmental materials, namely radiochemical neutron activation analysis (RNAA) and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Emphasis is laid upon the quality control and detection capabilities for the analysis of 129I in environmental materials. Some applications are discussed.

International environmental and development policy cooperation and the transition process of the Central and Eastern European countries

The political and economic changes in countries of the Central and Eastern European region during the recent two decades had significant implications on their participation in international environmental policy-making. These changes were motivated by the changing international political priorities and economic interests, realization of their part in the "common but differentiated responsibility" for the global environmental processes and the relatively modest capacities for international development cooperation. The situation of these countries was acknowledged by the international community by granting specific provisions to these "economies in transition" in international environmental policy mechanisms. In spite of the rapidly diverging external relations of the various groups of these countries, to some extent and in different forms the transition phase is still prevailing and has its effect on the ongoing international environmental negotiations. The paper describes the background of these changes, demonstrates the specific provisions for these countries that made possible their participation in the common efforts to tackle the emerging global and regional environmental problems by acceding to the relevant international mechanisms.

Photo degradation of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) under simulated solar radiation: Implications for their environmental fate

Contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) are continuously being released into the environment mainly because of their incomplete removal in the sewage treatment plants (STPs). The CECs selected for the study include antibiotics (macrolides, sulfonamides and ciprofloxacin), sucralose (an artificial sweetener) and dioctyl sulfosuccinate (DOSS, chemical dispersant used in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill). After being discharged into waterways from STPs, photo degradation is a key factor in dictating the environmental fate of antibiotics and sucralose. Photodegradation efficiency depends on many factors such as pH of the matrix, matrix composition, light source and structure of the molecule. These factors exert either synergistic or antagonistic effects in the environment and thus experiments with isolated factors may not yield the same results as the natural environmental processes. Hence in the current study photodegradation of 13 CECs (antibiotics, sucralose and dicotyl sulfosuccinate) were evaluated using natural water matrices with varying composition (deionized water, fresh water and salt water) as well as radiation of different wavelengths (254 nm, 350 nm and simulated solar radiation) in order to mimic natural processes. As expected the contribution of each factor on the overall rate of photodegradation is contaminant specific, for example under similar conditions, the rate in natural waters compared to pure water was enhanced for antibiotics (2-11 fold), significantly reduced for sucralose (no degradation seen in natural waters) and similar in both media for DOSS. In general, it was observed that the studied compounds degraded faster at 254 nm, while when using a simulated sunlight radiation the rate of photolysis of DOSS increased and the rates for antibiotics decreased in comparison to the 350 nm radiation. The photo stability of the studied CECs followed the order sucralose > DOSS > macrolides > sulfonamides > ciprofloxacin and a positive relationship was observed between photo stability and their ubiquitous presence in natural aquatic matrices. An online LC-MS/MS method was developed and validated for sucralose and further applied to reclaimed waters (n =56) and drinking waters (n = 43) from South Florida. Sucralose was detected in reclaimed waters with concentrations reaching up to 18 μg/L. High frequency of detection (> 80%) in drinking waters indicate contamination of ground waters in South Florida by anthropogenic activity.^

Recruitment patterns and processes of coastal fish species in a temperate rocky reef

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente, Ramo: Ciências do Mar, Especialização em Ecologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Photo Degradation of Cotnaminants of Emerging concern (CECs) under Simulated Solar Radiation: Implications for their Environmental Fate

Contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) are continuously being released into the environment mainly because of their incomplete removal in the sewage treatment plants (STPs). The CECs selected for the study include antibiotics (macrolides, sulfonamides and ciprofloxacin), sucralose (an artificial sweetener) and dioctyl sulfosuccinate (DOSS, chemical dispersant used in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill). After being discharged into waterways from STPs, photo degradation is a key factor in dictating the environmental fate of antibiotics and sucralose. Photodegradation efficiency depends on many factors such as pH of the matrix, matrix composition, light source and structure of the molecule. These factors exert either synergistic or antagonistic effects in the environment and thus experiments with isolated factors may not yield the same results as the natural environmental processes. Hence in the current study photodegradation of 13 CECs (antibiotics, sucralose and dicotyl sulfosuccinate) were evaluated using natural water matrices with varying composition (deionized water, fresh water and salt water) as well as radiation of different wavelengths (254 nm, 350 nm and simulated solar radiation) in order to mimic natural processes. As expected the contribution of each factor on the overall rate of photodegradation is contaminant specific, for example under similar conditions, the rate in natural waters compared to pure water was enhanced for antibiotics (2-11 fold), significantly reduced for sucralose (no degradation seen in natural waters) and similar in both media for DOSS. In general, it was observed that the studied compounds degraded faster at 254 nm, while when using a simulated sunlight radiation the rate of photolysis of DOSS increased and the rates for antibiotics decreased in comparison to the 350 nm radiation. The photo stability of the studied CECs followed the order sucralose > DOSS > macrolides > sulfonamides > ciprofloxacin and a positive relationship was observed between photo stability and their ubiquitous presence in natural aquatic matrices. An online LC-MS/MS method was developed and validated for sucralose and further applied to reclaimed waters (n =56) and drinking waters (n = 43) from South Florida. Sucralose was detected in reclaimed waters with concentrations reaching up to 18 µg/L. High frequency of detection (> 80%) in drinking waters indicate contamination of ground waters in South Florida by anthropogenic activity.

Viemärin päässä Kotkan kaupunki : Vesiensuojelun kehitys Kymijoen itäisen päähaaran suulla 1945-1970

The focus of this thesis is the marine environmental history of the eastern part and the estuary of the Kymi river from 1945 to 1970. There is no previous research on this area from an environmentally historical perspective, nor have many of the sources here discussed been previously used. Therefore the thesis expands academic understanding of local environmental processes and protection in and around the city of Kotka and the Kymi river. The thesis falls within the methodological field of socio-political history, as the research focus is centered on the local process of establishing the nature of environmental problems and solving them. The principal assumption has been that the city of Kotka, due to its ongoing expansion, was slow to respond to environmental hazards. The Kymi river was among the most degraded bodies of water during this period. Kotka on the other hand was a major center of wood processing industry and one of Finlands major industrial ports. In the past the river and its estuary had provided ample resources for fishers. It is this contradictory use of the environment that allows one to discuss the local struggle for the correct use of the environment. Primary sources include local and city archives, environmental studies, and legal documents linked with the above. The archives of the city of Kotka and of various private associations form the core sources. Environmental studies from the research period have been dealt with as sources to the local political power struggle. Alongside with current environmental research they also provide insight into the state of the environment. Another goals has been to accumulate environmental research for a future multidisciplinary study in this area. As a final conclusion it can be said that environmental degradation was widely understood as a problem only in the 1960s. The influential role of the city of Kotka however determined the pace with which these problems were then solved.

Da crítica à relação sociedadenatureza no ensino de Geografia à crítica da questão ambiental na mídia

O ensino de Geografia defrontase com inúmeros desafios no que compete à formação de cidadãos com efetiva atuação social. Neste estudo, apontase, como um destes desafios, o raciocínio espacial, tendo como ponto de partida a compreensão multiescalar e multifacetada da questão ambiental por meio do reconhecimento dos diversos discursos e significados que permeiam essa questão. A mídia constituise, nos últimos tempos, em expressiva instância para a produção de sentidos e de representações acerca do que vem a constituir esse debate, tendo o docente um papel indispensável na mediação da prática educativa e na problematização dos processos que se pretendem hegemônicos. Considerando essas questões, este estudo discute o movimento a ser estabelecido da crítica à relação sociedadenatureza no ensino de Geografia à crítica da questão ambiental apresentada pela mídia. Para tal, desenvolveuse uma metodologia de pesquisa que, envolvendo professores e alunos, buscou confrontar as concepções e práticas enunciadas como as responsáveis pelo debate ambiental em sala de aula com a questão ambiental difundida pela mídia, sendo observados como principais aspectos: a persistente dicotomia sociedade versus natureza como a principal responsável pela dificuldade de professores e alunos na análise da questão ambiental; o não reconhecimento, por parte dos professores, de que essa dicotomia ainda se faz latente no pensar e no fazer geográfico na escola; a carência de uma mediação pedagógica entre o material da mídia e o conhecimento geográfico incorrendo na não problematização de importantes elementos concernentes à questão ambiental; as informações ambientais da mídia têmse sobreposto ao conhecimento geográfico do ambiente a ser pautado na relação sociedadenatureza; o reprodutivismo dos discursos e representações mediáticos sobre a natureza, o ambiente e o espaço pelos alunos. Portanto, a partir dessas constatações, concluise que as percepções da questão ambiental, deslocadas da compreensão analítica e crítica da relação sociedadenatureza na contemporaneidade, podem conduzir a interpretações fragmentárias e simplificadoras do espaço. Como contrapontos a essa perspectiva, são apresentados aspectos das teorias da complexidade (Edgar Morin) e da totalidade (na concepção geográfica de Milton Santos) como importantes alternativas analíticas para o combate da visão dicotômica homem (sociedade) versus meio (natureza) e, por conseguinte, para o fortalecimento da compreensão do espaço enquanto uma totalidade dialética.

黄土高原典型小流域综合治理的水文生态效应(英文)

从流域产流规律及水土保持措施改变引起的土壤水分状况和流域蒸散发的变化等方面评价了黄土丘陵沟壑区泉家沟流域水土保持措施变化对流域水分生态环境的影响。结果表明:水土保持与生态建设过程改变了土地利用结构,对小流域水环境变迁具有很大的影响作用,主要表现在:减少地表径流量,径流模数1996～2000年平均较1980～1985年减少了36.1%;不同治理措施土壤水分状况不同,灌木林地、人工草地和乔木林地均存在深度和厚度不等的土壤"干层";不同地貌部位土壤储水差异很大,阴坡的水分环境优于阳坡,沟底优于峁顶,缓坡优于陡坡;林草措施对流域总蒸散量起着决定性作用,1991～1995年流域林草地面积达到最大,总蒸散量也达到最大,与治理初期相比,总蒸散量累计增加了56.3mm。