Bayesian Estimation for Performance Measures of Two Diagnostic Tests in the Presence of Verification Bias

Sensitivity and specificity are measures that allow us to evaluate the performance of a diagnostic test. In practice, it is common to have situations where a proportion of selected individuals cannot have the real state of the disease verified, since the verification could be an invasive procedure, as occurs with biopsy. This happens, as a special case, in the diagnosis of prostate cancer, or in any other situation related to risks, that is, not practicable, nor ethical, or in situations with high cost. For this case, it is common to use diagnostic tests based only on the information of verified individuals. This procedure can lead to biased results or workup bias. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach to estimate the sensitivity and the specificity for two diagnostic tests considering verified and unverified individuals, a result that generalizes the usual situation based on only one diagnostic test.

Comparing diagnostic tests with missing data

When missing data occur in studies designed to compare the accuracy of diagnostic tests, a common, though naive, practice is to base the comparison of sensitivity, specificity, as well as of positive and negative predictive values on some subset of the data that fits into methods implemented in standard statistical packages. Such methods are usually valid only under the strong missing completely at random (MCAR) assumption and may generate biased and less precise estimates. We review some models that use the dependence structure of the completely observed cases to incorporate the information of the partially categorized observations into the analysis and show how they may be fitted via a two-stage hybrid process involving maximum likelihood in the first stage and weighted least squares in the second. We indicate how computational subroutines written in R may be used to fit the proposed models and illustrate the different analysis strategies with observational data collected to compare the accuracy of three distinct non-invasive diagnostic methods for endometriosis. The results indicate that even when the MCAR assumption is plausible, the naive partial analyses should be avoided.

The STARD statement for reporting studies of diagnostic accuracy: Explanation and elaboration

The quality of reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy is less than optimal. Complete and accurate reporting is necessary to enable readers to assess the potential for bias in the study and to evaluate the generalisability of the results. A group of scientists and editors has developed the STARD (Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy) statement to improve the reporting the quality of reporting of studies of diagnostic accuracy. The statement consists of a checklist of 25 items and flow diagram that authors can use to ensure that all relevant information is present. This explanatory document aims to facilitate the use, understanding and dissemination of the checklist. The document contains a clarification of the meaning, rationale and optimal use of each item on the checklist, as well as a short summary of the available evidence on bias and applicability. The STARD statement, checklist, flowchart and this explanation and elaboration document should be useful resources to improve reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies. Complete and informative reporting can only lead to better decisions in healthcare.

Testing for potential contextual bias effects during the verification stage of the ACE-V methodology when conducting fingerprint comparisons

This study was conducted to assess if fingerprint specialists could be influenced by extraneous contextual information during a verification process. Participants were separated into three groups: a control group (no contextual information was given), a low bias group (minimal contextual information was given in the form of a report prompting conclusions), and a high bias group (an internationally recognized fingerprint expert provided conclusions and case information to deceive this group into believing that it was his case and conclusions). A similar experiment was later conducted with laypersons. The results showed that fingerprint experts were influenced by contextual information during fingerprint comparisons, but not towards making errors. Instead, fingerprint experts under the biasing conditions provided significantly fewer definitive and erroneous conclusions than the control group. In contrast, the novice participants were more influenced by the bias conditions and did tend to make incorrect judgments, especially when prompted towards an incorrect response by the bias prompt.

The relationship between forensic science and judicial error: a study covering error sources, bias, and remedies

Summary : Forensic science - both as a source of and as a remedy for error potentially leading to judicial error - has been studied empirically in this research. A comprehensive literature review, experimental tests on the influence of observational biases in fingermark comparison, and semistructured interviews with heads of forensic science laboratories/units in Switzerland and abroad were the tools used. For the literature review, some of the areas studied are: the quality of forensic science work in general, the complex interaction between science and law, and specific propositions as to error sources not directly related to the interaction between law and science. A list of potential error sources all the way from the crime scene to the writing of the report has been established as well. For the empirical tests, the ACE-V (Analysis, Comparison, Evaluation, and Verification) process of fingermark comparison was selected as an area of special interest for the study of observational biases, due to its heavy reliance on visual observation and recent cases of misidentifications. Results of the tests performed with forensic science students tend to show that decision-making stages are the most vulnerable to stimuli inducing observational biases. For the semi-structured interviews, eleven senior forensic scientists answered questions on several subjects, for example on potential and existing error sources in their work, of the limitations of what can be done with forensic science, and of the possibilities and tools to minimise errors. Training and education to augment the quality of forensic science have been discussed together with possible solutions to minimise the risk of errors in forensic science. In addition, the time that samples of physical evidence are kept has been determined as well. Results tend to show considerable agreement on most subjects among the international participants. Their opinions on possible explanations for the occurrence of such problems and the relative weight of such errors in the three stages of crime scene, laboratory, and report writing, disagree, however, with opinions widely represented in existing literature. Through the present research it was therefore possible to obtain a better view of the interaction of forensic science and judicial error to propose practical recommendations to minimise their occurrence. Résumé : Les sciences forensiques - considérés aussi bien comme source de que comme remède à l'erreur judiciaire - ont été étudiées empiriquement dans cette recherche. Une revue complète de littérature, des tests expérimentaux sur l'influence du biais de l'observation dans l'individualisation de traces digitales et des entretiens semi-directifs avec des responsables de laboratoires et unités de sciences forensiques en Suisse et à l'étranger étaient les outils utilisés. Pour la revue de littérature, quelques éléments étudies comprennent: la qualité du travail en sciences forensiques en général, l'interaction complexe entre la science et le droit, et des propositions spécifiques quant aux sources d'erreur pas directement liées à l'interaction entre droit et science. Une liste des sources potentielles d'erreur tout le long du processus de la scène de crime à la rédaction du rapport a également été établie. Pour les tests empiriques, le processus d'ACE-V (analyse, comparaison, évaluation et vérification) de l'individualisation de traces digitales a été choisi comme un sujet d'intérêt spécial pour l'étude des effets d'observation, due à son fort recours à l'observation visuelle et dû à des cas récents d'identification erronée. Les résultats des tests avec des étudiants tendent à prouver que les étapes de prise de décision sont les plus vulnérables aux stimuli induisant des biais d'observation. Pour les entretiens semi-structurés, onze forensiciens ont répondu à des questions sur des sujets variés, par exemple sur des sources potentielles et existantes d'erreur dans leur travail, des limitations de ce qui peut être fait en sciences forensiques, et des possibilités et des outils pour réduire au minimum ses erreurs. La formation et l'éducation pour augmenter la qualité des sciences forensiques ont été discutées ainsi que les solutions possibles pour réduire au minimum le risque d'erreurs en sciences forensiques. Le temps que des échantillons sont gardés a été également déterminé. En général, les résultats tendent à montrer un grand accord sur la plupart des sujets abordés pour les divers participants internationaux. Leur avis sur des explications possibles pour l'occurrence de tels problèmes et sur le poids relatif de telles erreurs dans les trois étapes scène de crime;', laboratoire et rédaction de rapports est cependant en désaccord avec les avis largement représentés dans la littérature existante. Par cette recherche il était donc possible d'obtenir une meilleure vue de l'interaction des sciences forensiques et de l'erreur judiciaire afin de proposer des recommandations pratiques pour réduire au minimum leur occurrence. Zusammenfassung : Forensische Wissenschaften - als Ursache und als Hilfsmittel gegen Fehler, die möglicherweise zu Justizirrtümern führen könnten - sind hier empirisch erforscht worden. Die eingestzten Methoden waren eine Literaturübersicht, experimentelle Tests über den Einfluss von Beobachtungseffekten (observer bias) in der Individualisierung von Fingerabdrücken und halbstandardisierte Interviews mit Verantwortlichen von kriminalistischen Labors/Diensten in der Schweiz und im Ausland. Der Literaturüberblick umfasst unter anderem: die Qualität der kriminalistischen Arbeit im Allgemeinen, die komplizierte Interaktion zwischen Wissenschaft und Recht und spezifische Fehlerquellen, welche nicht direkt auf der Interaktion von Recht und Wissenschaft beruhen. Eine Liste möglicher Fehlerquellen vom Tatort zum Rapportschreiben ist zudem erstellt worden. Für die empirischen Tests wurde der ACE-V (Analyse, Vergleich, Auswertung und Überprüfung) Prozess in der Fingerabdruck-Individualisierung als speziell interessantes Fachgebiet für die Studie von Beobachtungseffekten gewählt. Gründe sind die Wichtigkeit von visuellen Beobachtungen und kürzliche Fälle von Fehlidentifizierungen. Resultate der Tests, die mit Studenten durchgeführt wurden, neigen dazu Entscheidungsphasen als die anfälligsten für Stimuli aufzuzeigen, die Beobachtungseffekte anregen könnten. Für die halbstandardisierten Interviews beantworteten elf Forensiker Fragen über Themen wie zum Beispiel mögliche und vorhandene Fehlerquellen in ihrer Arbeit, Grenzen der forensischen Wissenschaften und Möglichkeiten und Mittel um Fehler zu verringern. Wie Training und Ausbildung die Qualität der forensischen Wissenschaften verbessern können ist zusammen mit möglichen Lösungen zur Fehlervermeidung im selben Bereich diskutiert worden. Wie lange Beweismitten aufbewahrt werden wurde auch festgehalten. Resultate neigen dazu, für die meisten Themen eine grosse Übereinstimmung zwischen den verschiedenen internationalen Teilnehmern zu zeigen. Ihre Meinungen über mögliche Erklärungen für das Auftreten solcher Probleme und des relativen Gewichts solcher Fehler in den drei Phasen Tatort, Labor und Rapportschreiben gehen jedoch mit den Meinungen, welche in der Literatur vertreten werden auseinander. Durch diese Forschungsarbeit war es folglich möglich, ein besseres Verständnis der Interaktion von forensischen Wissenschaften und Justizirrtümer zu erhalten, um somit praktische Empfehlungen vorzuschlagen, welche diese verringern. Resumen : Esta investigación ha analizado de manera empírica el rol de las ciencias forenses como fuente y como remedio de potenciales errores judiciales. La metodología empleada consistió en una revisión integral de la literatura, en una serie de experimentos sobre la influencia de los sesgos de observación en la individualización de huellas dactilares y en una serie de entrevistas semiestructuradas con jefes de laboratorios o unidades de ciencias forenses en Suiza y en el extranjero. En la revisión de la literatura, algunas de las áreas estudiadas fueron: la calidad del trabajo en ciencias forenses en general, la interacción compleja entre la ciencia y el derecho, así como otras fuentes de error no relacionadas directamente con la interacción entre derecho y ciencia. También se ha establecido una lista exhaustiva de las fuentes potenciales de error desde la llegada a la escena del crimen a la redacción del informe. En el marco de los tests empíricos, al analizar los sesgos de observación dedicamos especial interés al proceso de ACE-V (análisis, comparación, evaluación y verificación) para la individualización de huellas dactilares puesto que este reposa sobre la observación visual y ha originado varios casos recientes de identificaciones erróneas. Los resultados de las experimentaciones realizadas con estudiantes sugieren que las etapas en las que deben tornarse decisiones son las más vulnerables a lös factores que pueden generar sesgos de observación. En el contexto de las entrevistas semi-estructuradas, once científicos forenses de diversos países contestaron preguntas sobre varios temas, incluyendo las fuentes potenciales y existehtes de error en su trabajo, las limitaciones propias a las ciencias forenses, las posibilidades de reducir al mínimo los errores y las herramientas que podrían ser utilizadas para ello. Se han sugerido diversas soluciones para alcanzar este objetivo, incluyendo el entrenamiento y la educación para aumentar la calidad de las ciencias forenses. Además, se ha establecido el periodo de conservación de las muestras judiciales. Los resultados apuntan a un elevado grado de consenso entre los entrevistados en la mayoría de los temas. Sin embargo, sus opiniones sobre las posibles causas de estos errores y su importancia relativa en las tres etapas de la investigación -la escena del crimen, el laboratorio y la redacción de informe- discrepan con las que predominan ampliamente en la literatura actual. De este modo, esta investigación nos ha permitido obtener una mejor imagen de la interacción entre ciencias forenses y errores judiciales, y comenzar a formular una serie de recomendaciones prácticas para reducirlos al minimo.

Sophisticated security verification on routing repaired balanced cell-based dual-rail logic against side channel analysis

Conventional dual-rail precharge logic suffers from difficult implementations of dual-rail structure for obtaining strict compensation between the counterpart rails. As a light-weight and high-speed dual-rail style, balanced cell-based dual-rail logic (BCDL) uses synchronised compound gates with global precharge signal to provide high resistance against differential power or electromagnetic analyses. BCDL can be realised from generic field programmable gate array (FPGA) design flows with constraints. However, routings still exist as concerns because of the deficient flexibility on routing control, which unfavourably results in bias between complementary nets in security-sensitive parts. In this article, based on a routing repair technique, novel verifications towards routing effect are presented. An 8 bit simplified advanced encryption processing (AES)-co-processor is executed that is constructed on block random access memory (RAM)-based BCDL in Xilinx Virtex-5 FPGAs. Since imbalanced routing are major defects in BCDL, the authors can rule out other influences and fairly quantify the security variants. A series of asymptotic correlation electromagnetic (EM) analyses are launched towards a group of circuits with consecutive routing schemes to be able to verify routing impact on side channel analyses. After repairing the non-identical routings, Mutual information analyses are executed to further validate the concrete security increase obtained from identical routing pairs in BCDL.

Hubble parameter reconstruction from a principal component analysis: minimizing the bias

Aims. A model-independent reconstruction of the cosmic expansion rate is essential to a robust analysis of cosmological observations. Our goal is to demonstrate that current data are able to provide reasonable constraints on the behavior of the Hubble parameter with redshift, independently of any cosmological model or underlying gravity theory. Methods. Using type Ia supernova data, we show that it is possible to analytically calculate the Fisher matrix components in a Hubble parameter analysis without assumptions about the energy content of the Universe. We used a principal component analysis to reconstruct the Hubble parameter as a linear combination of the Fisher matrix eigenvectors (principal components). To suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the components, we considered the value of the Hubble parameter at high redshift as a free parameter. We first tested our procedure using a mock sample of type Ia supernova observations, we then applied it to the real data compiled by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) group. Results. In the mock sample analysis, we demonstrate that it is possible to drastically suppress the bias introduced by the high redshift behavior of the principal components. Applying our procedure to the real data, we show that it allows us to determine the behavior of the Hubble parameter with reasonable uncertainty, without introducing any ad-hoc parameterizations. Beyond that, our reconstruction agrees with completely independent measurements of the Hubble parameter obtained from red-envelope galaxies.

Experimental studies of di-jet survival and surface emission bias in Au plus Au collisions via angular correlations with respect to back-to-back leading hadrons

We report first results from an analysis based on a new multi-hadron correlation technique, exploring jet-medium interactions and di-jet surface emission bias at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Pairs of back-to-back high-transverse-momentum hadrons are used for triggers to study associated hadron distributions. In contrast with two-and three-particle correlations with a single trigger with similar kinematic selections, the associated hadron distribution of both trigger sides reveals no modification in either relative pseudorapidity Delta eta or relative azimuthal angle Delta phi from d + Au to central Au + Au collisions. We determine associated hadron yields and spectra as well as production rates for such correlated back-to-back triggers to gain additional insights on medium properties.

Low-bias negative differential resistance in graphene nanoribbon superlattices

We theoretically investigate negative differential resistance (NDR) for ballistic transport in semiconducting armchair graphene nanoribbon (aGNR) superlattices (5 to 20 barriers) at low bias voltages V(SD) < 500 mV. We combine the graphene Dirac Hamiltonian with the Landauer-Buttiker formalism to calculate the current I(SD) through the system. We find three distinct transport regimes in which NDR occurs: (i) a ""classical"" regime for wide layers, through which the transport across band gaps is strongly suppressed, leading to alternating regions of nearly unity and zero transmission probabilities as a function of V(SD) due to crossing of band gaps from different layers; (ii) a quantum regime dominated by superlattice miniband conduction, with current suppression arising from the misalignment of miniband states with increasing V(SD); and (iii) a Wannier-Stark ladder regime with current peaks occurring at the crossings of Wannier-Stark rungs from distinct ladders. We observe NDR at voltage biases as low as 10 mV with a high current density, making the aGNR superlattices attractive for device applications.

Universal zero-bias conductance through a quantum wire side-coupled to a quantum dot

A numerical renormalization-group study of the conductance through a quantum wire containing noninteracting electrons side-coupled to a quantum dot is reported. The temperature and the dot-energy dependence of the conductance are examined in the light of a recently derived linear mapping between the temperature-dependent conductance and the universal function describing the conductance for the symmetric Anderson model of a quantum wire with an embedded quantum dot. Two conduction paths, one traversing the wire, the other a bypass through the quantum dot, are identified. A gate potential applied to the quantum wire is shown to control the current through the bypass. When the potential favors transport through the wire, the conductance in the Kondo regime rises from nearly zero at low temperatures to nearly ballistic at high temperatures. When it favors the dot, the pattern is reversed: the conductance decays from nearly ballistic to nearly zero. When comparable currents flow through the two channels, the conductance is nearly temperature independent in the Kondo regime, and Fano antiresonances in the fixed-temperature plots of the conductance as a function of the dot-energy signal interference between them. Throughout the Kondo regime and, at low temperatures, even in the mixed-valence regime, the numerical data are in excellent agreement with the universal mapping.

Universal zero-bias conductance for the single-electron transistor

The thermal dependence of the zero-bias conductance for the single electron transistor is the target of two independent renormalization-group approaches, both based on the spin-degenerate Anderson impurity model. The first approach, an analytical derivation, maps the Kondo-regime conductance onto the universal conductance function for the particle-hole symmetric model. Linear, the mapping is parametrized by the Kondo temperature and the charge in the Kondo cloud. The second approach, a numerical renormalization-group computation of the conductance as a function the temperature and applied gate voltages offers a comprehensive view of zero-bias charge transport through the device. The first approach is exact in the Kondo regime; the second, essentially exact throughout the parametric space of the model. For illustrative purposes, conductance curves resulting from the two approaches are compared.

Short Cognitive Performance Test: Diagnostic Accuracy and Education Bias in Older Brazilian Adults

The ""Short Cognitive Performance Test"" (Syndrom Kurztest, SKT) is a cognitive screening battery designed to detect memory and attention deficits. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the SKT as a screening tool for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. A total of 46 patients with Alzheimer`s disease (AD), 82 with MCI, and 56 healthy controls were included in the study. Patients and controls were allocated into two groups according to educational level (< 8 years or > 8 years). ROC analyses suggested that the SKT adequately discriminates AD from non-demented subjects (MCI and controls), irrespective of the education group. The test had good sensitivity to discriminate MCI from unimpaired controls in the sub-sample of individuals with more than 8 years of schooling. Our findings suggest that the SKT is a good screening test for cognitive impairment and dementia. However, test results must be interpreted with caution when administered to less-educated individuals.

Obtaining and stability verification of superconducting phases of the Nb-Al and Nb-Sn systems by mechanical alloying and low-temperature heat treatments

The development of Nb(3)Al and Nb(3)Sn superconductors is of great interest for the applied superconductivity area. These intermetallics composites are obtained normally by heat treatment reactions at high temperature. Processes that allow formation of the superconducting phases at lower temperatures (<1000 degrees C), particularly for Nb(3)Al, are of great interest. The present work studies phase formation and stability of Nb(3)Al and Nb(3)Sn superconducting phases using mechanical alloying (high energy ball milling). Our main objective was to form composites near stoichiometry, which could be transformed into the superconducting phases using low-temperature heat treatments. High purity Nb-Sn and Nb-Al powders were mixed to generate the required superconducting phases (Nb-25at.%Sn and Nb-25at.%Al) in an argon atmosphere glove-box. After milling in a Fritsch mill, the samples were compressed in a hydraulic uniaxial press and encapsulated in evacuated quartz tubes for heat treatment. The compressed and heat treated samples were characterized using X-ray diffractometry. Microstructure and chemical analysis were accomplished using scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectrometry. Nb(3)Al XRD peaks were observed after the sintering at 800 degrees C for the sample milled for 30 h. Nb(3)Sn XRD peaks could be observed even before the heat treatment. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Verification of a mixed high-order accurate DNS code for laminar turbulent transition by the method of manufactured solutions

This paper presents results on a verification test of a Direct Numerical Simulation code of mixed high-order of accuracy using the method of manufactured solutions (MMS). This test is based on the formulation of an analytical solution for the Navier-Stokes equations modified by the addition of a source term. The present numerical code was aimed at simulating the temporal evolution of instability waves in a plane Poiseuille flow. The governing equations were solved in a vorticity-velocity formulation for a two-dimensional incompressible flow. The code employed two different numerical schemes. One used mixed high-order compact and non-compact finite-differences from fourth-order to sixth-order of accuracy. The other scheme used spectral methods instead of finite-difference methods for the streamwise direction, which was periodic. In the present test, particular attention was paid to the boundary conditions of the physical problem of interest. Indeed, the verification procedure using MMS can be more demanding than the often used comparison with Linear Stability Theory. That is particularly because in the latter test no attention is paid to the nonlinear terms. For the present verification test, it was possible to manufacture an analytical solution that reproduced some aspects of an instability wave in a nonlinear stage. Although the results of the verification by MMS for this mixed-order numerical scheme had to be interpreted with care, the test was very useful as it gave confidence that the code was free of programming errors. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Model to predict the chloride penetration in concrete with profile forming peak: verification of its precision

Chloride attack in marine environments or in structures where deicing salts are used will not always show profiles with concentrations that decrease from the external surface to the interior of the concrete. Some profiles show an increase in chloride concentrations from when a peak is formed. This type of profile must be analyzed in a different way from the traditional model of Fick`s second law to generate more precise service life models. A model for forecasting the penetration of chloride ions as a function of time for profiles having formed a peak. To confirm the efficiency of this model, it is necessary to observe the behavior of a chloride profile with peak in a specific structure over a period of time. To achieve this, two chloride profiles with different ages (22 and 27 years) were extracted from the same structure. The profile obtained from the 22-year sample was used to estimate the chloride profile at 27 years using three models: a) the traditional model using Fick`s second law and extrapolating the value of C(S)-external surface chloride concentration; b) the traditional model using Fick`s second law and shifting the x-axis to the peak depth; c) the previously proposed model. The results from these models were compared with the actual profile measured in the 27-year sample and the results were analyzed. The model was presented with good precision for this study of case, requiring to be tested with other structures in use.