A functional specification and validation model for networks on chip in the ACL2 logic

International audience

Fixed failure rate ambiguity validation methods for GPS and compass

Ambiguity resolution plays a crucial role in real time kinematic GNSS positioning which gives centimetre precision positioning results if all the ambiguities in each epoch are correctly fixed to integers. However, the incorrectly fixed ambiguities can result in large positioning offset up to several meters without notice. Hence, ambiguity validation is essential to control the ambiguity resolution quality. Currently, the most popular ambiguity validation is ratio test. The criterion of ratio test is often empirically determined. Empirically determined criterion can be dangerous, because a fixed criterion cannot fit all scenarios and does not directly control the ambiguity resolution risk. In practice, depending on the underlying model strength, the ratio test criterion can be too conservative for some model and becomes too risky for others. A more rational test method is to determine the criterion according to the underlying model and user requirement. Miss-detected incorrect integers will lead to a hazardous result, which should be strictly controlled. In ambiguity resolution miss-detected rate is often known as failure rate. In this paper, a fixed failure rate ratio test method is presented and applied in analysis of GPS and Compass positioning scenarios. A fixed failure rate approach is derived from the integer aperture estimation theory, which is theoretically rigorous. The criteria table for ratio test is computed based on extensive data simulations in the approach. The real-time users can determine the ratio test criterion by looking up the criteria table. This method has been applied in medium distance GPS ambiguity resolution but multi-constellation and high dimensional scenarios haven't been discussed so far. In this paper, a general ambiguity validation model is derived based on hypothesis test theory, and fixed failure rate approach is introduced, especially the relationship between ratio test threshold and failure rate is examined. In the last, Factors that influence fixed failure rate approach ratio test threshold is discussed according to extensive data simulation. The result shows that fixed failure rate approach is a more reasonable ambiguity validation method with proper stochastic model.

Model to predict inpatient mortality from information gathered at presentation to an emergency department: The Triage Information Mortality Model (TIMM)

OBJECTIVES: To derive and validate a mortality prediction model from information available at ED triage. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression of variables from administrative datasets to predict inpatient mortality of patients admitted through an ED. Accuracy of the model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. The model was derived, internally validated and externally validated. Derivation and internal validation were in a tertiary referral hospital and external validation was in an urban community hospital. RESULTS: The ROC-AUC for the derivation set was 0.859 (95% CI 0.856-0.865), for the internal validation set was 0.848 (95% CI 0.840-0.856) and for the external validation set was 0.837 (95% CI 0.823-0.851). Calibration assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was good. CONCLUSIONS: The model successfully predicts inpatient mortality from information available at the point of triage in the ED.

Establishing the risk of neonatal mortality using a fuzzy predictive model

O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.

Model Evaluation Based on the Distribution of Estimated Absolute Prediction Error

The construction of a reliable, practically useful prediction rule for future response is heavily dependent on the "adequacy" of the fitted regression model. In this article, we consider the absolute prediction error, the expected value of the absolute difference between the future and predicted responses, as the model evaluation criterion. This prediction error is easier to interpret than the average squared error and is equivalent to the mis-classification error for the binary outcome. We show that the distributions of the apparent error and its cross-validation counterparts are approximately normal even under a misspecified fitted model. When the prediction rule is "unsmooth", the variance of the above normal distribution can be estimated well via a perturbation-resampling method. We also show how to approximate the distribution of the difference of the estimated prediction errors from two competing models. With two real examples, we demonstrate that the resulting interval estimates for prediction errors provide much more information about model adequacy than the point estimates alone.

Identifying experts in information systems for system evaluations

This research-in-progress paper reports preliminary findings of a study that is designed to identify characteristics of an expert in the discipline of Information Systems (IS). The paper delivers a formative research model to depict characteristics of an expert with three additive constructs, using concepts derived from psychology, knowledge management and social-behaviour research. The paper then explores the formation and application ‘expertise’ using four investigative questions in the context of System Evaluations. Data have been gathered from 220 respondents representing three medium sized companies in India, using the SAP Enterprise Resource Planning system. The paper summarizes planned data analyses in construct validation, model testing and model application. A validated construct of expertise of IS will have a wide range of implications for research and practice.

Gene expression analysis of diagnostic biopsies predicts pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy of esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVE: This study explored gene expression differences in predicting response to chemoradiotherapy in esophageal cancer. PURPOSE:: A major pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation is observed in about 40% of esophageal cancer patients and is associated with favorable outcomes. However, patients with tumors of similar histology, differentiation, and stage can have vastly different responses to the same neoadjuvant therapy. This dichotomy may be due to differences in the molecular genetic environment of the tumor cells. BACKGROUND DATA: Diagnostic biopsies were obtained from a training cohort of esophageal cancer patients (13), and extracted RNA was hybridized to genome expression microarrays. The resulting gene expression data was verified by qRT-PCR. In a larger, independent validation cohort (27), we examined differential gene expression by qRT-PCR. The ability of differentially-regulated genes to predict response to therapy was assessed in a multivariate leave-one-out cross-validation model. RESULTS: Although 411 genes were differentially expressed between normal and tumor tissue, only 103 genes were altered between responder and non-responder tumor; and 67 genes differentially expressed >2-fold. These included genes previously reported in esophageal cancer and a number of novel genes. In the validation cohort, 8 of 12 selected genes were significantly different between the response groups. In the predictive model, 5 of 8 genes could predict response to therapy with 95% accuracy in a subset (74%) of patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study has identified a gene microarray pattern and a set of genes associated with response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation in esophageal cancer. The potential of these genes as biomarkers of response to treatment warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2009 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Modelling and Prediction of NOx Emission in a Coal-Fired Power Generation Plant

In this paper NOx emissions modelling for real-time operation and control of a 200 MWe coal-fired power generation plant is studied. Three model types are compared. For the first model the fundamentals governing the NOx formation mechanisms and a system identification technique are used to develop a grey-box model. Then a linear AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs (ARX) model and a non-linear ARX model (NARX) are built. Operation plant data is used for modelling and validation. Model cross-validation tests show that the developed grey-box model is able to consistently produce better overall long-term prediction performance than the other two models.

Coconstruction des composantes d'un programme d'intervention en soutien à la résilience de familles dont un adolescent est atteint d'un traumatisme craniocérébral

La vie de famille avec un adolescent comporte son lot de défis. Les émotions de l’adolescent qui se présentent parfois comme des montagnes russes peuvent rendre les relations tendues et difficiles au sein de la cellule familiale, voire même au-delà de celle-ci. Par son caractère inattendu, l’avènement d’un traumatisme craniocérébral (TCC) chez l’adolescent vient fragiliser encore davantage la dynamique familiale. En outre, la myriade d’impacts engendrés par le TCC contraint la famille à modifier son projet de vie en s’investissant ensemble pour le reconstruire. La résilience devant une situation de traumatisme ne se manifeste pas de la même façon pour toutes les familles qui y sont confrontées. Certaines d’entre elles réussissent à se transformer positivement, tandis que d’autres n’y parviennent pas ou manifestent plus de difficultés. Il convient alors d’actualiser des approches de soins interdisciplinaires centrées sur la famille qui favoriseraient la reconnaissance des éléments pouvant soutenir son processus de résilience à travers cette épreuve et, enfin, aider à transformer son projet de vie. Avec comme perspective disciplinaire le modèle humaniste des soins infirmiers (Cara, 2012; Cara & Girard, 2013; Girard & Cara, 2011), cette étude qualitative et inductive (LoBiondo-Wood, Haber, Cameron, & Singh, 2009), soutenue par une approche collaborative de recherche (Desgagné, 1997), a permis la coconstruction des composantes d’un programme d’intervention en soutien à la résilience familiale, avec des familles dont un adolescent est atteint d’un TCC modéré ou sévère et des professionnels de la réadaptation. Le modèle de développement et de validation d’interventions complexes (Van Meijel, Gamel, Van Swieten-Duijfjes, & Grypdonck, 2004) a structuré la collecte des données en trois volets. Le premier volet consistait à identifier les composantes du programme d’intervention selon les familles (n=6) et les professionnels de la réadaptation (n=5). La priorisation et la validation des composantes du programme d’intervention, soit respectivement le deuxième et troisième volets, se sont réalisées auprès de ces mêmes familles (n=6 au volet 2 et n=4 au volet 3) et professionnels de la réadaptation (n=5 aux volets 2 et 3). Le processus d’analyse des données (Miles & Huberman, 2003) a repéré cinq thèmes intégrateurs, considérés comme les composantes du programme d’intervention en soutien à la résilience familiale à la suite du TCC modéré ou sévère d’un adolescent. Ce sont : 1) les caractéristiques de la famille et ses influences; 2) les stratégies familiales positives; 3) le soutien familial et social; 4) la prise en charge de l’aspect occupationnel et; 5) l’apport de la communauté et des professionnels de la santé. Les résultats issus de ce processus de coconstruction ont produit une matrice solide, suffisamment flexible pour pouvoir s’adapter aux différents contextes dans lesquels évoluent les familles et les professionnels de la réadaptation. Cette étude offre en outre des avenues intéressantes tant pour les praticiens que pour les gestionnaires et les chercheurs en sciences infirmières et dans d’autres disciplines quant à la mise en place de stratégies concrètes visant à soutenir le processus de résilience des familles dans des situations particulièrement difficiles de leur vie.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Estimating hardness of eucalyptus wood with a portable hardness tester

More than 80% of the 29600 km of the Brazilian railroad mesh employs wooden sleepers. The problem of hard availability of native wood for this purpose leads to the alternative use of reforestation species to produce sleepers. Considering the great difficulty to, in field condition, evaluate characteristics that are of major importance to define its suitability to sleeper production the Research Group on Forest Products from FCA/UNESP - Brazil had developed equipment for field evaluation of hardness in wood - Portable Hardness Tester. This paper reports the functional validation tests, performed with different species of Eucalyptus. Results revealed the equipment great functionality, easy-to-use characteristics and applicability to Eucalyptus wood. Moderate to strong relationships between laboratory and validated values of hardness were found. The best validation model was obtained using the data provided by the experimental dispositive 3 (R2=0.74 and SSE= 7.71 kJ/m2) while the experimental dispositive 1 gave the worse validation (R2=0.55 and SSE= 13.46 kJ/m2).

Paciente laringectomizado total: validação das características definidoras para o diagnóstico de enfermagem comunicação prejudicada

Este estudo teve por objetivo validar as características definidoras do diagnóstico de enfermagem "Comunicação prejudicada ao paciente submetido à laringectomia total." Para sua realização, optou-se pelo modelo validação de conteúdo diagnóstico (CDV) de FEHRING (1986, 1987). Coletaram-se os dados por meio de uma escala de freqüência do tipo Likert, composta por vinte e seis características definidoras da lista oficial da North American Nursing Diagnosis Association (NANDA) e três características definidoras fictícias. Participaram do estudo vinte e seis enfermeiros assistenciais e docentes. Os resultados demonstraram uma CDV total de 0,84 para as características definidoras maiores e CDV total de 0,69 para as características definidoras menores. Reconheceu-se que o estudo validou as características definidoras preconizadas pela NANDA para o diagnóstico de enfermagem comunicação prejudicada.

In Richtung "Komplexe PTBS": die deutsche Version des Trauma Symptom Inventory (TSI) zur Erfassung komplexer Traumafolgen.

Die Studie überprüfte die deutsche Übersetzung des Trauma Symptom Inventory (TSI) von Briere [1], das die Komplexe PTB-Symptomatik erfassen soll. Das TSI war Teil einer Testbatterie, welche weiter den Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, Short Screening Scale, Short Form Health Survey, Geriatrische Depressionsskala und das Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview enthielt. Untersucht wurde eine Stichprobe von N=116 älteren Personen (Altersbereich: 59-98 Jahre; 40,5% Frauen) mit einer Häufung potentiell traumatischer Erfahrungen in der Kindheit. Die deutsche Version des TSI zeigte eine adäquate interne Konsistenz, überwiegend gute Trennschärfen und Schwierigkeitsindizes sowie eine gute Kriteriums- und Konstruktvalidität. Hinsichtlich faktorieller Validität konnte ein Validierungsmodell [2] aus dem europäischen Raum tendenziell besser repliziert werden, als das amerikanische Originalmodell von Briere. Das TSI erwies sich als reliables, ökonomisches und teilweise valides Instrument zur Erfassung der Komplexen PTB-Symptomatik.