Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Influence of sedation on morbidity and mortality in the intensive care unit

CONTEXTO: Embora cerca de 30% a 50% dos pacientes hospitalizados em unidades de terapia intensiva (UTI) recebam algum tipo de sedativo, existe escassez de informações sobre efeitos adversos desta prática, especialmente no Brasil. Estes efeitos podem ser significantes e o uso de sedativos é associado a elevação de infecção e mortalidade, mesmo sendo difícil avaliar o impacto clínico deste procedimento. OBJETIVO: Avaliar o impacto da sedação sobre incidência de complicações e mortalidade em doentes graves durante internação em unidade de terapia intensiva. TIPO DE ESTUDO: Estudo prospectivo. LOCAL: Unidade de Terapia Intensiva Cirúrgica da Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) - Escola Paulista de Medicina. PARTICIPANTES: Após excluídos pacientes que permaneceram menos de 24 horas ou sem exames indispensáveis para o cálculo do índice de gravidade (APACHE II), restaram 307 pacientes. Estes foram divididos em dois grupos: Grupo Sedado e Grupo Não Sedado. Constatada heterogeneidade com relação ao APACHE II, foram pareados 97 sedados e 97 não sedados com idênticos índices de gravidade. VARIÁVEIS ESTUDADAS: Impacto da sedação e das técnicas sobre a mortalidade, tempo de internação, além da incidência de escara de decúbito ou pressão, trombose venosa profunda e infecção. RESULTADOS: Não houve diferença na incidência de trombose venosa profunda, entre os grupos Sedado e Não Sedado, enquanto que escara de decúbito foi significativamente maior nos sedados (p = 0,03). Infecção foi detectada em 45,4% dos pacientes com sedação e em 21,6% dos pacientes sem sedação (p = 0,006). A mortalidade para os pacientes que não receberam qualquer tipo de sedativo foi de 20,6% e, para aqueles que foram sedados durante a internação, foi de 52,6% (p < 0,0001). CONCLUSÕES: Conclui-se que a sedação está associada a maior duração da internação, morbidade e mortalidade significativas. Apesar da intensidade das associações encontradas, não é possível estabelecer relação causal entre sedação e mortalidade.

Evaluación del desempeño pronóstico de dos puntajes de predicción de mortalidad a siete días en pacientes adultos oncológicos críticamente enfermos admitidos a una unidad de cuidados intensivos en Bogotá

Introducción Los sistemas de puntuación para predicción se han desarrollado para medir la severidad de la enfermedad y el pronóstico de los pacientes en la unidad de cuidados intensivos. Estas medidas son útiles para la toma de decisiones clínicas, la estandarización de la investigación, y la comparación de la calidad de la atención al paciente crítico. Materiales y métodos Estudio de tipo observacional analítico de cohorte en el que reviso las historias clínicas de 283 pacientes oncológicos admitidos a la unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI) durante enero de 2014 a enero de 2016 y a quienes se les estimo la probabilidad de mortalidad con los puntajes pronósticos APACHE IV y MPM II, se realizó regresión logística con las variables predictoras con las que se derivaron cada uno de los modelos es sus estudios originales y se determinó la calibración, la discriminación y se calcularon los criterios de información Akaike AIC y Bayesiano BIC. Resultados En la evaluación de desempeño de los puntajes pronósticos APACHE IV mostro mayor capacidad de predicción (AUC = 0,95) en comparación con MPM II (AUC = 0,78), los dos modelos mostraron calibración adecuada con estadístico de Hosmer y Lemeshow para APACHE IV (p = 0,39) y para MPM II (p = 0,99). El ∆ BIC es de 2,9 que muestra evidencia positiva en contra de APACHE IV. Se reporta el estadístico AIC siendo menor para APACHE IV lo que indica que es el modelo con mejor ajuste a los datos. Conclusiones APACHE IV tiene un buen desempeño en la predicción de mortalidad de pacientes críticamente enfermos, incluyendo pacientes oncológicos. Por lo tanto se trata de una herramienta útil para el clínico en su labor diaria, al permitirle distinguir los pacientes con alta probabilidad de mortalidad.

Tumor budding score based on 10 high-power fields is a promising basis for a standardized prognostic scoring system in stage II colorectal cancer

Tumor budding is recognized by the World Health Organization as an additional prognostic factor in colorectal cancer but remains unreported in diagnostic work due to the absence of a standardized scoring method. This study aims to assess the most prognostic and reproducible scoring systems for tumor budding in colorectal cancer. Tumor budding on pancytokeratin-stained whole tissue sections from 105 well-characterized stage II patients was scored by 3 observers using 7 methods: Hase, Nakamura, Ueno, Wang (conventional and rapid method), densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power fields. The predictive value for clinicopathologic features, the prognostic significance, and interobserver variability of each scoring method was analyzed. Pancytokeratin staining allowed accurate evaluation of tumor buds. Interobserver agreement for 3 observers was excellent for densest high-power field (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.83) and 10 densest high-power fields (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.91). Agreement was moderate to substantial for the conventional Wang method (κ = 0.46-0.62) and moderate for the rapid method (κ = 0.46-0.58). For Nakamura, moderate agreement (κ = 0.41-0.52) was reached, whereas concordance was fair to moderate for Ueno (κ = 0.39-0.56) and Hase (κ = 0.29-0.51). The Hase, Ueno, densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power field methods identified a significant association of tumor budding with tumor border configuration. In multivariate analysis, only tumor budding as evaluated in densest high-power field and 10 densest high-power fields had significant prognostic effects on patient survival (P < .01), with high prognostic accuracy over the full 10-year follow-up. Scoring tumor buds in 10 densest high-power fields is a promising method to identify stage II patients at high risk for recurrence in daily diagnostics; it is highly reproducible, accounts for heterogeneity, and has a strong predictive value for adverse outcome.

A scoring system for early prognostic assessment after neonatal seizures

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to devise a scoring system that could aid in predicting neurologic outcome at the onset of neonatal seizures. METHODS: A total of 106 newborns who had neonatal seizures and were consecutively admitted to the NICU of the University of Parma from January 1999 through December 2004 were prospectively followed-up, and neurologic outcome was assessed at 24 months’ postconceptional age. We conducted a retrospective analysis on this cohort to identify variables that were significantly related to adverse outcome and to develop a scoring system that could provide early prognostic indications. RESULTS: A total of 70 (66%) of 106 infants had an adverse neurologic outcome. Six variables were identified as the most important independent risk factors for adverse outcome and were used to construct a scoring system: birth weight, Apgar score at 1 minute, neurologic examination at seizure onset, cerebral ultrasound, efficacy of anticonvulsant therapy, and presence of neonatal status epilepticus. Each variable was scored from 0 to 3 to represent the range from “normal” to “severely abnormal.” A total composite score was computed by addition of the raw scores of the 6 variables. This score ranged from 0 to 12. A cutoff score of =4 provided the greatest sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSIONS: This scoring system may offer an easy, rapid, and reliable prognostic indicator of neurologic outcome after the onset of neonatal seizures. A final assessment of the validity of this score in routine clinical practice will require independent validation in other centers.

ECG scar quantification correlates with cardiac magnetic resonance scar size and prognostic factors in Chagas' disease

Objective To test the hypothesis that 12-lead ECG QRS scoring quantifies myocardial scar and correlates with disease severity in Chagas' heart disease. Design Patients underwent 12-lead ECG for QRS scoring and cardiac magnetic resonance with late gadolinium enhancement (CMR-LGE) to assess myocardial scar. Setting University of Sao Paulo Medical School, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Patients 44 Seropositive patients with Chagas' disease without a history of myocardial infarction and at low risk for coronary artery disease. Main outcome measures Correlation between QRS score, CMR-LGE scar size and left ventricular ejection fraction. Relation between QRS score, heart failure (HF) class and history of ventricular tachycardia (VT). Results QRS score correlated directly with CMR-LGE scar size (R=0.69, p<0.0001) and inversely with left ventricular ejection fraction (R=-0.54, p=0.0002), which remained significant in the subgroup with conduction defects. Patients with class II or III HF had significantly higher QRS scores than those with class I HF (5.1 +/- 3.4 vs 2.1 +/- 3.1 QRS points (p=0.002)) and patients with a history of VT had significantly higher QRS scores than those without a history of VT (5.3 +/- 3.2% vs 2.6 +/- 3.4 QRS points (p=0.02)). A QRS score >= 2 points had particularly good sensitivity and specificity (95% and 83%, respectively) for prediction of large CMR-LGE, and a QRS score >= 7 points had particularly high specificity (92% and 89%, respectively) for predicting significant left ventricular dysfunction and history of VT. Conclusions The wide availability of 12-lead ECG makes it an attractive screening tool and may enhance clinical risk stratification of patients at risk for more severe, symptomatic Chagas' heart disease.

Prognostic factors for progression of liver structural lesions in chronic hepatitis C patients

AIM: To evaluate the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory and histological variables capable of predicting the progression of hepatic structural disturbances in chronic hepatitis C patients during the time interval between two liver biopsies. METHODS: Clinical charts of 112 chronic hepatitis C patients were retrospectively analyzed, whereas liver biopsies were revised. Immunohistochemical detection of interferon receptor was based on the Envision-Peroxidase System. RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, the variables in the age at first biopsy, ALT levels, presence of lymphoid aggregates and siderosis were the determinants of the best model for predicting the severity of the disease. The direct progression rate of hepatic structural lesions was significantly higher in untreated patients, intermediate in treated non-responders and lower in treated responders to antiviral therapy (non-treated vs responders, 0.22 +/- 0.50 vs -0.15 +/- 0.46, P = 0.0053). Immuno-expression of interferon receptor is not a relevant factor. CONCLUSION: The best predictors of the progression of fibrosis are age at the first liver biopsy, extent of ALT elevation, inflammation at liver histology and hepatic siderosis. Antiviral treatment is effective in preventing the progression of liver structural lesions in chronic hepatitis C patients. (C) 2008 WJG. All rights reserved.

Prognostic relevance of TTF-1 and MMP-9 expression in advanced lung adenocarcinoma

Background: The thyroid transcription factor-1 (TTF-1) is a tissue-specific transcription factor that Could playan important role in cell differentiation and morphogenesis of lung tumors. Matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) is a protease commonly expressed in non-small cell lung cancer, conferring angiogenic and metastatic potential. Methods: We assessed TTF-1 and MMP-9 tumor expression by immunohistochemistry in 51 patients with lung adenocarcinoma, stage 11113 or IV, treated with platinum regimens. A bicategorical prognostic model was obtained using the Kaplan-Meier method, COX regression, and conjunctive consolidation. Results: The median expression of TTF-1 was 30.0% (range: 0-85.9%). All tumors expressed MMP-9 (median: 78.7%: range: 15.2-96.1%). Median survival was 41.6 weeks, with estimated 1- and 2-year survival rates of 45.0% and 22.0%, respectively. Poor performance status (Karnofsky scale) - hazards ratio(HR): 1.03. 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.06: low TTF-1 expression (<40%) - FIR: 4.00, 95% CI: 1.75-9.09: and high MMP-9 expression (>= 80%) - HR: 2.82, 95% CI: 1.30-6.08 were independent prognostic factors. Patients could be stratified in three death risk groups according to markers expression: low risk (high TTF-1 and low MMP-9; median survival: 127.6 weeks), intermediate risk (low TTF-1 OF high MMP-9; median survival: 39.0 weeks): and high risk (low TTF-1 and high MMP-9: median survival: 16.4 weeks). Conclusion: TTF-1 and MMP-9 tumor expression as detected by immunohistochemistry may allow identification of different, clinically meaningful, prognostic groups of advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients treated with platinum regimens. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Immunophenotyping and remodeling process in small airways of idiopathic interstitial pneumonias: functional and prognostic significance

Background and Aims: To test whether different degrees of immunologic and fibrotic airway remodeling processes occur in idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIPs), with impact on functional tests and survival, we studied the collagen/elastic system and immune cell density in the bronchiolar interstitium of lungs with the major types of IIPs. Materials and Methods: Histochemistry, immunohistochemistry and morphometric analysis were used to evaluate collagen/elastic fibers and immune cells in the bronchiolar interstitium of open lung biopsies of patients with cryptogenic organizing pneumonia [COP/organizing pneumonia (OP) = 10], acute interstitial pneumonia [AIP/diffuse alveolar damage (DAD) = 20], nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP/NSIP = 20) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis/usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) = 20. Results: OP lungs presented a significant increase in collagenous/elastic fibers and in the total density of immune cells in the bronchiolar interstitium compared to controls, DAD, NSIP and UIP. We observed a significant increase in CD4, CD8 and CD20 lymphocytes, as well as in neutrophils, macrophages and plasma cells in OP. The increased amount of elastic fibers in the bronchiolar interstitium from OP lungs has a direct association with forced vital capacity (FVC) (r(s) = 0.99, P = 0.03). The most important survival predictor was CD20+ lymphocytes in the bronchiolar interstitium. In decreasing order, patients with UIP [Odds Ratio (OR) = 35.01], high forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/FVC FVC (OR = 7.01), increased CD20+ lymphocytes (OR = 4.44) and collagenous/elastic fiber densities (OR = 2.03 and OR = 1.49, respectively) in the bronchiolar interstitium were those who had the greatest risk of death, followed by those with AIP, NSIP and COP. Conclusion: Different degrees of immunologic and fibroelastotic airway remodeling processes occur in the major types of IIPs with impact on physiological tests and survival.

Meningeal carcinomatosis in breast cancer: prognostic factors and outcome

Meningeal carcinomatosis (MC) occurs in up to 5% of breast cancer patients. Few studies have evaluated prognostic markers in breast cancer patients with MC. Our aim was to describe the treatment of breast cancer patients with MC, and identify prognostic factors related to survival. Sixty breast cancer patients that had a diagnosis of MC between January 2003 and December 2009 were included. The median age was 46 years (range 27-76). Most patients had invasive ductal carcinoma (78.3%) and high histological/nuclear grade (61.7/53.3%). Estrogen and progesterone receptors were positive in 51.7 and 43.3% of patients, respectively, and 15% were HER-2-positive. Symptoms at presentation were headache, cranial nerve dysfunction, seizures, and intracranial hypertension signals. Diagnosis was made by CSF cytology in 66.7% of cases and by MRI in 71.7%. Intrathecal (IT) chemotherapy was used in 68.3% of patients, and 21.6% received a new systemic treatment (chemo- or hormone therapy). Median survival was 3.3 months (range 0.03-90.4). There was no survival difference according to age, nuclear grade, hormonal and HER-2 status, CSF features, sites of metastasis, systemic and IT chemotherapy, or radiotherapy. However, histological grade and performance status had a significant impact on survival in the multivariate analysis. Only four papers have addressed prognostic factors in breast cancer patients with MC in the last two decades. The results of those reports are discussed here. High histological grade and poor performance status seem to impact survival of breast cancer patients with MC. Prospective studies are necessary to clarify the role of IT and systemic treatment in the treatment of those patients.

Short- and long-term survival of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to the intensive care unit: prognostic factors

Decisions for intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in patients with advanced cancer are complex, and the knowledge of survival rates and prognostic factors are essential to these decisions. Ours objectives were to describe the short- and long-term survival of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to an ICU due to emergencies and to study the prognostic factors presented at ICU admission that could be associated with hospital mortality. We retrospectively analysed the charts of all patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted over a 1-year period. This gave a study sample of 83 patients. The ICU, hospital, 1-year and 2-year survival rates were 55.4%, 28.9%, 12.0% and 2.4% respectively. Thrombocytopenia (odds ratio 26.2; P = 0.006) and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) (odds ratio 1.09; P = 0.026) were independent factors associated with higher hospital mortality. In conclusion, the survival rates of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to the ICU due to emergencies were low, but of the same magnitude as other groups of cancer patients admitted to the ICU. The SAPS II score and thrombocytopenia on admission were associated with higher hospital mortality. The characteristics of the metastatic disease, such as number of organs with metastasis and central nervous system metastasis were not associated with the hospital mortality.

Prognostic Impact of MYCN, DDX1, TrkA, and TrkC Gene Transcripts Expression in Neuroblastoma

Background. The aims of this study were to define the mRNA expression profiles of MYCN, DDX1, TrkA, and TrkC in biopsy tumor samples from 64 Brazilian patients with neuroblastomas of different risk stages and to correlate altered expression with prognostic values. Procedure. Patients were retrospectively classified into low- (n = 11), intermediate- (n = 18), and high-risk (n = 35) groups using standard criteria. The mRNA levels of the above genes were measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Univariate analyses were performed and survival curves were plotted by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results. Of the 64 patients, 53% were female and 62.5% were older than 18 months. The 5-year overall survival (OS) for the entire cohort was 40.3%, with inferior median OS in patients identified in the intermediate- and high-risk groups. A significant difference in OS with respect to TrkA mRNA expression was found for the high-risk group vs. either the low- or intermediate-risk groups (P < 0.01, log rank test). Within the intermediate-risk group, neuroblastoma patients with positive TrkA mRNA expression had better clinical outcomes than patients with no TrkA transcript expression (P = 0.004). Another difference in OS was only found between the intermediate- and high-risk groups (P < 0.027, log rank test). No significant correlation of mRNA expression and survival outcome could be detected for the MYCN, DDX1. Conclusions. Positive expression of TrkA mRNA may be a clinically useful addition to the current risk classification system, allowing the identification of NB tumors with favorable prognosis. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2011; 56: 749-756. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

In pursuit of prognostic factors in children with pilocytic astrocytomas

This study described a 23-year experience in the treatment of children with pilocytic astrocytomas (piloA) with the aim of identifying putative clinical, histopathological, and/or immunohistochemical features that could be related to the outcome of these patients. Clinical data of 31 patients under 18 years of age with piloA were obtained from 1984 to 2006. The mean age at the time of surgery was 7.8 +/- 4.2 years (1 to 17 years), and the mean follow-up was 5.7 +/- 5.4 years (1 to 20 years). The most common site of tumor formation was the cerebellum (17), followed by brainstem (4), optic chiasmatic hypothalamic region (4), cerebral hemisphere (3), cervical spinal cord (2), and optic nerve (1). Gross total resection (GTR) was achieved in 23 (74.1%), mainly in those with tumors located in the cerebellum and cerebral hemispheres (P = 0.02). The global mortality rate was 6.4%. Nine patients were reoperated. Rosenthal fibers, eosinophilic granular bodies, microvascular proliferation, and lymphocytic infiltration were observed in most cases. The mean Ki-67LI was 4.4 +/- 4.5%. In all cases, Gal-3 expression in tumor cells was observed with variable staining pattern. Aside from GTR, no other clinical, histopathological, or immunohistochemical features were found to be related to the prognosis. We postulate that strict follow-up is recommended if piloA is associated with high mitotic activity/Ki67-LI, or if GTR cannot be achieved at surgery. Tumor recurrence or progression of the residual lesion should be strictly observed. In some aspects, childhood piloA remains an enigmatic tumor.

Frequency and prognostic relevance of cancer testis antigen 45 expression in multiple myeloma

Objective. This study aims to analyze the expression of cancer testis antigen 45 (CT45) in normal tissues and in plasma cell disorders and to identify possible associations with clinical data and prognosis in multiple myeloma (MM) patients. Materials and Methods. Expression of CT45 was studied in 20 normal tissues (testis, placenta, skeletal muscle, bladder, lung, spleen, heart, brain and fetal brain, thymus, uterus, stomach, mammary gland, pancreas, prostate, small intestine, kidney, adrenal gland, spinal cord, colon, and one pool of 10 normal bone marrow samples) and bone marrow aspirates from 3 monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance, 5 solitary plasmacytomas, 61 newly diagnosed MM patients and MM cell line U266 by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Results. CT45 was positive in 3 of 20 (15%) normal tissues tested: lung, brain (both fetal and adult), and spinal cord. Among monoclonal gammopathies, CT45 was positive in 2 of 5 (40%) solitary plasmacytomas bone marrow aspirates, 10 of 61 (16%) MM bone marrow aspirates, and in the U266 MM cell line. Conclusions. We did not find associations between bone marrow histology and CT45 expression. However, we demonstrated for the first time that positive expression of CT45 was associated with poor prognostic (international Staging System) and poor outcomes in MM patients, meaning that CT45-positive cases presented seven times more chance of worse evolution than the negative ones. (C) 2009 ISEH - Society for Hematology and Stem Cells. Published by Elsevier Inc.