Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

A technology assessment of productive conservation in urban transportation : project description for fiscal years 1980, 1981.

Dec. 1979.

Local productive arrangements for biodiesel production in Brazil: Environmental assessment of small-holders integrated oleaginous crops management.

Sustainability assessments were carried out in small-holders? farms in four territories where productive arrangements have been organized for production of minor oleagi- nous crops under the Brazilian biodiesel program. The study aimed at checking local impacts of the biodiesel productive chains at the rural establishment scale, and pro- moting the environmental performance of the selected farms, henceforth proposed as sustainable management demonstration units. Assessments were carried out with the APOIA-NovoRural system, which integrates 62 objective and quantitative indicators re- lated to five sustainability dimensions: i) Landscape Ecology, ii) Environmental Quality (Atmosphere, Water and Soil), iii) Socio-cultural Values, iv) Economic Values and v) Management and Administration. The main results point out that, in general, the eco- logical dimensions of sustainability, that is, the Landscape Ecology and Atmosphere, Water, and Soil quality indicators, show adequate field conditions, seemingly not yet negatively affected by increases in chemical inputs and natural resources use predicted as important potential impacts of the agro-energy sector. The Economic Values indica- tors have been favorably influenced in the studied farms, due to a steadier demand and improved prices for the oleaginous crops. On the other hand, valuable positive conse- quences expected for favoring farmers? market insertion, such as improved Socio-cultural Values and Management & Administration indicators, are still opportunities to be ma-terialized. The Environmental Management Reports issued to the farmers, based on the presented sustainability assessment procedures, offer valuable documentation and com-munication means for consolidating the organizational influence of the local productive arrangements studied. These productive arrangements were shown to be determinant for the selection of crop associations and diversification, as well as for the provision of technical assistance and the stabilization of demand - conditions that promote value aggregation and income improvements, favoring small-holders? insertion in the market. More importantly, these locally organized productive arrangements have been shown to strongly influence the valorization of natural resources and environmental assets, which are fundamental if sustainable rural development is to take place under the emerging agro-energy scenario.

The development of a carrying capacity assessment model for the Australian socio-environmental context

A key aim of this research was to highlight how society's understanding of constraints to the productive capacity of its resource base is vital to its long-term survival. This was achieved through the development of an online model, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard. The Dashboard was developed to estimate how much land Australian populations require for the production of their food, textiles, timber and liquid fuel. Findings reveal that Australia's estimated carrying capacity is currently over 40 million people but longer-term and more regional analyses suggest a much smaller number. Carrying capacity assessment also indicates that optimal resource security is to be found in balancing both small and large-scale self-sufficiency.

Elements of Better Assessment for the Improvement of Learning

Building a community of shared practice at the classroom level calls for clarity about the important assessment capabilities and dispositions of teachers, especially when teachers are expected to take a direct focus on learning. In this chapter, we present new ways of thinking about teachers’ assessment literacies, offering a formulation of better assessment for the improvement of learning, including three elements, namely (i) assessment criteria and standards; (ii) the teacher’s professional judgment; and (iii) social moderation. The potential of the first element lies in teachers’ classroom practices that deliberately embed assessment criteria and standards in pedagogy in productive ways. The second element involves the engagement of teachers and students in judgment practice, that develops the understanding that judgment involves more than the application of explicit or stated criteria. More fundamental is the matter of how teachers bring to bear stated features of quality and other intellectual and experiential resources in arriving at judgment. That is to say, they range across and orient to explicit (stated), tacit (unstated) and meta-criteria in judgment making. These insights have direct relevance to teachers’ efforts to develop students’ own evaluative experience, especially as this involves students working with stated features of quality for self-assessment and peer-assessment purposes. Further, practices for social moderation are discussed, giving examples of good practice in moderation, how teachers experience moderation and the potential benefits of various types.

An assessment of the geographical scale of recurrent gene flow in wild populations of two species of Mekong River carps (Henicorhynchus spp.)

The Mekong is the most productive river fishery in the world, and such as, the Mekong River Basin (MRB) is very important to very large human populations across the region as a source of revenue (through fishing and marketing of aquatic resources products) and as the major source for local animal protein. Threats to biodiversity in the MRB, either to the fishery sector itself or to other sectors are a major concern, even though currently, fisheries across this region are still very productive. If not managed properly however, fish population declines will cause significant economic impact and affect livelihoods of local people and will have a major impact on food security and nutrition. Biodiversity declines will undoubtedly affect food security, income and socio-economic status of people in the MRB that depend on aquatic resources. This is an indicator of unsustainable development and hence should be avoided. Genetic diversity (biodiversity) that can be measured using techniques based on DNA markers; refers to variation within and among populations within the same species or reproductive units. In a population, new genetic variation is generated by sexual recombination contributed by individuals with mutations in genes and chromosomes. Over time, populations of a species that are not reproducing together will diverge as differential impacts of selection and genetic drift change their genetic attributes. For mud carp (Henicorhynchus spp.), understanding the status of breeding units in the MRB will be important for their long term persistence, sustainability and for implementing effective management strategies. Earlier analysis of stock structure in two economically important mud carp species (Henicorhynchus siamensis and H. lobatus) in the MRB completed with mtDNA markers identified a number of populations of both species where gene flow had apparently been interrupted or reduced but applying these data directly to management unit identification is potentially compromised because information was only available about female dispersal patterns. The current study aimed to address this problem and to fully assess the extent of current gene flow (nDNA) and reproductive exchange among selected wild populations of two species of carp (Henicorhynchus spp.) of high economic importance in the MRB using combined mtDNA and nDNA markers. In combination, the data can be used to define effective management units for each species. In general, nDNA diversity for H. lobatus (with average allelic richness (A) 7.56 and average heterozygosity (Ho) 0.61) was very similar to that identified for H. siamensis (A = 6.81 and Ho = 0.75). Both mud carp species show significant but low FST estimates among populations as a result of lower genetic diversity among sampled populations compared with genetic diversity within populations that may potentially mask any 'real' population structure. Overall, population genetic structure patterns from mtDNA and nDNA in both Henicorhynchus species were largely congruent. Different population structures however, were identified for the two Henicorhynchus species across the same geographical area. Apparent co-similarity in morphology and co-distribution of these two relatively closely related species does not apparently imply parallel evolutionary histories. Differences in each species population structure likely reflect historical drainage rearrangement of the Mekong River. The data indicate that H. siamensis is likely to have occupied the Mekong system for much longer than has H. lobatus in the past. Two divergent stocks were identified for H. lobatus in the MRB below the Khone Falls while a single stock had been evident in the earlier mtDNA study. This suggests that the two Henicorhynchus species may possess different life history traits and that different patterns of gene flow has likely influenced modern genetic structure in these close congeners. In combination, results of the earlier mtDNA and the current study have implications for effective management of both Henicorhynchus species across the MRB. Currently, both species are essentially treated as a single management unit in this region. This strategy may be appropriate for H. lobatus as a single stock was evident in the main stream of the MRB, but may not be appropriate for H. siamensis as more than a single stock was identified across the same range for this species. Management strategies should consider this difference to conserve overall biodiversity (local discrete populations) and this will include maintaining natural habitat and migration pathways, provision of fish sanctuaries (refuges) and may also require close monitoring of any stock declines, a signal that may require effective recovery strategies.

Ecological and socio-economic assessment of Varthur wetland, Bengaluru (India)

Wetlands are the most productive ecosystems, recognized globally for its vital role in sustaining a wide array of biodiversity and provide goods and services. However despite their important role in maintaining the ecology and economy, wetlands in India are endangered by inattention and lack of appreciation for their role. Increased anthropogenic activities such as intense agriculture practices, indiscriminate disposal of industrial effluents and sewage wastes have altered the physical, chemical as well as biological integrity of the ecosystem. This has resulted in the ecological degradation, which is evident from the current ecosystem valuation of Varthur wetland. Global valuation of coastal wetland ecosystem shows a total of 14,785/ha US$ annual economic value. An earlier study of relatively pristine wetland in Bangalore shows the value of Rs. 10,435/ha/day while the polluted wetland shows the value of Rs.20/ha/day. In contrast to this, Varthur, a sewage fed wetland has a value of Rs.118.9/ha/day. The pollutants and subsequent contamination of the wetland has telling effects such as disappearance of native species, dominance of invasive exotic species (such as African catfish), in addition to profuse breeding of disease vectors and pathogens. Water quality analysis revealed of high phosphates (4.22-5.76 ppm) level in addition to the enhanced BOD (119-140 ppm) and decreased DO (0-1.06 ppm). The amplified decline of ecosystem goods and services with degradation of water quality necessitates the implementation of sustainable management strategies to recover the lost wetland benefits.

Seagrass and Aquatic Habitat Assessment Workshop Summary

Seagrass communities are among the richest and most productive, photoautotrophic coastal systems in the world. They protect and improve water quality, provide shoreline stabilization, and are important habitats for an array of fish, birds, and other wildlife. Hence, much can be gained by protecting and restoring these important living resources. Human’s impact on these vital resources from population growth, pollution, and physical damage from boating and other activities can disrupt the growth of these seagrasses communities and have devastating effects on their health and vitality. Inventory and monitoring are required to determine the dynamics of seagrasses and devise better protection and restoration for these rich resources. The purpose of this seagrass workshop, sponsored by NOAA’s CSC , USGS, and FMRI, was to move toward greater objectivity and accuracy in seagrass mapping and monitoring. This workshop helped foster interaction and communication among seagrass professionals. In order to begin the process of determining the best uniform mapping process for the biological research community. Increasing such awareness among the seagrass and management communities, it is hoped that an improved understanding of the monitoring and mapping process will lead to more effective and efficient preservation os submerged aquatic vegetation. (PDF contains 20 pages)

Analysis of multivariate stochastic signals sampled by on-line particle analyzers: Application to the quantitative assessment of occupational exposure to NOAA in multisource industrial scenarios (MSIS)

In multisource industrial scenarios (MSIS) coexist NOAA generating activities with other productive sources of airborne particles, such as parallel processes of manufacturing or electrical and diesel machinery. A distinctive characteristic of MSIS is the spatially complex distribution of aerosol sources, as well as their potential differences in dynamics, due to the feasibility of multi-task configuration at a given time. Thus, the background signal is expected to challenge the aerosol analyzers at a probably wide range of concentrations and size distributions, depending of the multisource configuration at a given time. Monitoring and prediction by using statistical analysis of time series captured by on-line particle analyzers in industrial scenarios, have been proven to be feasible in predicting PNC evolution provided a given quality of net signals (difference between signal at source and background). However the analysis and modelling of non-consistent time series, influenced by low levels of SNR (Signal-Noise Ratio) could build a misleading basis for decision making. In this context, this work explores the use of stochastic models based on ARIMA methodology to monitor and predict exposure values (PNC). The study was carried out in a MSIS where an case study focused on the manufacture of perforated tablets of nano-TiO2 by cold pressing was performed

An ecological characterization of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary Region: oceanographic, biogeographic, and contaminants assessment

The mission of NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) is to serve as the trustee for a system of marine protected areas, to conserve, protect, and enhance their biodiversity, ecological integrity, and cultural legacy while facilitating compatible uses. Since 1972, thirteen National Marine Sanctuaries, representing a wide variety of ocean environments, have been established, each with management goals tuned to their unique diversity. Extending from Cape Ann to Cape Cod across the mouth of Massachusetts Bay, Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (NMS) encompasses 2,181 square kilometers of highly productive, diverse, and culturally unique Federal waters. As a result of its varied seafloor topography, oceanographic conditions, and high primary productivity, Stellwagen Bank NMS is utilized by diverse assemblages of seabirds, marine mammals, invertebrates, and fish species, as well as containing a number of maritime heritage resources. Furthermore, it is a region of cultural significance, highlighted by the recent discovery of several historic shipwrecks. Officially designated in 1992, Stellwagen Bank became the Nation’s twelfth National Marine Sanctuary in order to protect these and other unique biological, geological, oceanographic, and cultural features of the region. The Stellwagen Bank NMS is in the midst of its first management plan review since designation. The management plan review process, required by law, is designed to evaluate, enhance, and guide the development of future research efforts, education and outreach, and the management approaches used by Sanctuaries. Given the ecological and physical complexity of Stellwagen Bank NMS, burgeoning anthropogenic impacts to the region, and competing human and biological uses, the review process was challenged to assimilate and analyze the wealth of existing scientific knowledge in a framework which could enhance management decision-making. Unquestionably, the Gulf of Maine, Massachusetts Bay, and Stellwagen Bank-proper are extremely well studied systems, and in many regards, the scientific information available greatly exceeds that which is available for other Sanctuaries. However, the propensity of scientific information reinforces the need to utilize a comprehensive analytical approach to synthesize and explore linkages between disparate information on physical, biological, and chemical processes, while identifying topics needing further study. Given this requirement, a partnership was established between NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) and the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) so as to leverage existing NOAA technical expertise to assist the Sanctuary in developing additional ecological assessment products which would benefit the management plan review process.

Fisheries assessment of Biscayne Bay 1983

Creel and trawl surveys of Biscayne Bay were carried out in 1982-1983 to assess commercial fish and macro-invertebrate habitats and fisheries. Dredged and/or barren bottom was dramatically less productive than seagrass, algae or hard bottom areas. Low fish abundance and diversity in north Biscayne Bay appeared to be correlated with high turbidity and low seagrass abundance. Substantive increases in fish and crustacean productivity in north Biscayne Bay will occur only if seagrass communities can be re-established. Deeper dredged areas in North Bay will not likely become recolonized with seagrass even if turbidity levels are reduced. Hard bottom areas in South Bay are associated with high diversity of fish fauna and serve as nursery areas for several highly desirable species (e.g. hogfish, yellowtail snapper, lane snapper). The area between Julia Tuttle and 79th Street Causeways, which had very dense seagrass abundance, was the richest area on either North or South Biscayne Bay for juvenile fish and shrimp. This basin can serve as a model for the potential of the remainder of North Bay.

Ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia: Topic 2 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico

In this report we have attempted to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Although our initial approach was to rely on published accounts, we quickly realized that the body of published literature deahng with hypoxia was limited, and we would have to conduct our own exploratory analysis of existing Gulf data, or rely on published accounts from other systems to infer possible or potential effects of hypoxia. For the economic analysis, we developed a conceptual model of how hypoxia-related impacts could affect fisheries. Our model included both supply and demand components. The supply model had two components: (1) a physical production function for fish or shrimp, and (2) the cost of fishing. If hypoxia causes the cost of a unit of fishing effort to change, then this will result in a shift in supply. The demand model considered how hypoxia might affect the quality of landed fish or shrimp. In particular, the market value per pound is lower for small shrimp than for large shrimp. Given the limitations of the ecological assessment, the shallow continental shelf area affected by hypoxia does show signs of hypoxia-related stress. While current ecological conditions are a response to a variety of stressors, the effects of hypoxia are most obvious in the benthos that experience mortality, elimination of larger long-lived species, and a shifting of productivity to nonhypoxic periods (energy pulsing). What is not known is whether hypoxia leads to higher productivity during productive periods, or simply to a reduction of productivity during oxygen-stressed periods. The economic assessment based on fisheries data, however, failed to detect effects attributable to hypoxia. Overall, fisheries landings statistics for at least the last few decades have been relatively constant. The failure to identify clear hypoxic effects in the fisheries statistics does not necessarily mean that they are absent. There are several possibilities: (1) hypoxic effects are small relative to the overall variability in the data sets evaluated; (2) the data and the power of the analyses are not adequate; and (3) currently there are no hypoxic effects on fisheries. Lack of identified hypoxic effects in available fisheries data does not imply that effects would not occur should conditions worsen. Experience with other hypoxic zones around the globe shows that both ecological and fisheries effects become progressively more severe as hypoxia increases. Several large systems around the globe have suffered serious ecological and economic consequences from seasonal summertime hypoxia; most notable are the Kattegat and Black Sea. The consequences range from localized loss of catch and recruitment failure to complete system-wide loss of fishery species. If experiences in other systems are applicable to the Gulf of Mexico, then in the face of worsening hypoxic conditions, at some point fisheries and other species will decline, perhaps precipitously.

Cruise report: regional assessment of ecosystem condition and stressor impacts along the northeastern Gulf of Mexico shelf; NOAA Ship Nancy Foster NF-10-09-RACOW (August 13-21, 2010)

This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted along the continental shelf of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM), encompassing 70,062 square kilometers of productive marine habitats located between the Mississippi Delta and Tampa Bay, August 13–21, 2010 on NOAA Ship Nancy Foster Cruise NF-10-09-RACOW. Synoptic sampling of multiple ecological indicators was conducted at each of 50 stations throughout these waters using a random probabilistic sampling design. At each station samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants (metals, pesticides, TPHs, PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs) in sediments and target demersal biota; sediment toxicity; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH, CDOM fluorescence, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. Discrete water samples were collected just below the sea surface, in addition to any deeper subsurface depths where there was an occurrence of suspicious CDOM fluorescence signals, and analyzed for total BTEX/TPH and carcinogenic PAHs using immunoassay test kits. Other indicators of potential value from a human-dimension perspective were also recorded, including presence of any vessels, oil rigs, surface trash, visual oil sheens in sediments or water, marine mammals, or noxious/oily sediment odors. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecosystem condition and potential stressor impacts throughout the region, based on these various indicators and corresponding management thresholds, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how such conditions may be changing with time. In addition to the original project goals, both the scientific scope and general location of this project are relevant to addressing potential ecological impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. While sample analysis is still ongoing, a few preliminary results and observations are reported here. A final report will be completed once all data have been processed.