Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.