Multivariate measurement error models based on scale mixtures of the skew-normal distribution

Scale mixtures of the skew-normal (SMSN) distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal (SN) distribution as a special case. The main advantage of these classes of distributions is that they are easy to simulate and have a nice hierarchical representation facilitating easy implementation of the expectation-maximization algorithm for the maximum-likelihood estimation. In this paper, we assume an SMSN distribution for the unobserved value of the covariates and a symmetric scale mixtures of the normal distribution for the error term of the model. This provides a robust alternative to parameter estimation in multivariate measurement error models. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the SN, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. The results and methods are applied to a real data set.

Framework for a business interoperability quotient measurement model

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova da Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial (MEGI)

Creating risk measurement model to project portfolio management in construction company

This thesis was carried out as a case study of a company YIT in order to clarify the sev-erest risks for the company and to build a method for project portfolio evaluation. The target organization creates new living environment by constructing residential buildings, business premises, infrastructure and entire areas worth for EUR 1.9 billion in the year 2013. Company has noted project portfolio management needs more information about the structure of project portfolio and possible influences of market shock situation. With interviews have been evaluated risks with biggest influence and most appropriate metrics to examine. The major risks for the company were evaluated by interviewing the executive staff. At the same time, the most appropriate risk metrics were considered. At the moment sales risk was estimated to have biggest impact on company‟s business. Therefore project port-folio evaluation model was created and three different scenarios for company‟s future were created in order to identify the scale of possible market shock situation. The created model is tested with public and descriptive figures of YIT in a one-year-long market shock and the impact on different metrics was evaluated. Study was conducted using con-structive research methodology. Results indicate that company has notable sales risk in certain sections of business portfolio.

Performance measurement model for projects from a strategic management perspective

This research studied the project performance measurement from the perspective of strategic management. The objective was to find a generic model for project performance measurement that emphasizes strategy and decision making. Research followed the guidelines of a constructive research methodology. As a result, the study suggests a model that measures projects with multiple meters during and after projects. Measurement after the project is suggested to be linked to the strategic performance measures of a company. The measurement should be conducted with centralized project portfolio management e.g. using the project management office in the organization. Metrics, after the project, measure the project’s actual benefit realization. During the project, the metrics are universal and they measure the accomplished objectives relation to costs, schedule and internal resource usage. Outcomes of these measures should be forecasted by using qualitative or stochastic methods. Solid theoretical background for the model was found from the literature that covers the subjects of performance measurement, projects and uncertainty. The study states that the model can be implemented in companies. This statement is supported by empirical evidence from a single case study. The gathering of empiric evidence about the actual usefulness of the model in companies is left to be done by the evaluative research in the future.

Comparing intergroup contact effects on blatant and subtle prejudice in adolescents : a multivariate multilevel model

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Inferring the biggest and best: a measurement model for applying recognition to evoke consideration sets and judge between multiple alternatives

It has long been supposed that preference judgments between sets of to-be-considered possibilities are made by means of initially winnowing down the most promising-looking alternatives to form smaller “consideration sets” (Howard, 1963; Wright & Barbour, 1977). In preference choices with >2 options, it is standard to assume that a “consideration set”, based upon some simple criterion, is established to reduce the options available. Inferential judgments, in contrast, have more frequently been investigated in situations in which only two possibilities need to be considered (e.g., which of these two cities is the larger?) Proponents of the “fast and frugal” approach to decision-making suggest that such judgments are also made on the basis of limited, simple criteria. For example, if only one of two cities is recognized and the task is to judge which city has the larger population, the recognition heuristic states that the recognized city should be selected. A multinomial processing tree model is outlined which provides the basis for estimating the extent to which recognition is used as a criterion in establishing a consideration set for inferential judgments between three possible options.

A Measurement Model of Cortisol Reactivity of Healthy Older Adults

Research on the physiological adaptation process has found that stress is associated with the rate of cortisol secretion, the main hormone that reflects stress. However, considerable variation among subjects has been reported. Using a sample of older adults (N=46), we tested the hypothesis that cortisol reactivity is composed of (1) a situation-related component representing hypothalamic influence on cortisol secretion observed on three different occasions, and (2) a stable component representing a general trait responsible for cortisol responses observed from occasion to occasion. LISREL VIII was used to test this hypothesis. Results indicated that a homogeneous reliability model was not supported by the data. A congeneric measurement model represented a better fit to the data. Results suggest that subjects have consistent patterns of response during separate experimental occasions. However, results do not suggest a consistent pattern of response over time. The main implication of these results is that salivary cortisol measures are sensitive to experimental stress situations. As such, this noninvasive method may be useful in examining adaptive responses to stress.

A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^

Uncertainty evaluation of multivariate quantities: A case study on electrical impedance

The paper discusses the evaluation of the uncertainty of a multivariate quantity using the Law of Propagation of Uncertainty defined in the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and a Monte Carlo method according to the GUM’s Supplement 2. The quantity analysed is the electrical impedance, which is not a scalar but a complex quantity. The used measuring method allows the evaluation of the impedance and of its uncertainty in different ways and the corresponding results are presented, compared and discussed. For comparison purposes, results of the impedance uncertainty obtained using the NIST Uncertainty Machine are also presented.

Bias correction in a multivariate normal regression model with general parameterization

This paper derives the second-order biases Of maximum likelihood estimates from a multivariate normal model where the mean vector and the covariance matrix have parameters in common. We show that the second order bias can always be obtained by means of ordinary weighted least-squares regressions. We conduct simulation studies which indicate that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimators. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved maximum-likelihood estimation in a regression model with general parametrization

We analyse the finite-sample behaviour of two second-order bias-corrected alternatives to the maximum-likelihood estimator of the parameters in a multivariate normal regression model with general parametrization proposed by Patriota and Lemonte [A. G. Patriota and A. J. Lemonte, Bias correction in a multivariate regression model with genereal parameterization, Stat. Prob. Lett. 79 (2009), pp. 1655-1662]. The two finite-sample corrections we consider are the conventional second-order bias-corrected estimator and the bootstrap bias correction. We present the numerical results comparing the performance of these estimators. Our results reveal that analytical bias correction outperforms numerical bias corrections obtained from bootstrapping schemes.

A framework for extreme-event control in wastewater treatment

In this paper an approach to extreme event control in wastewater treatment plant operation by use of automatic supervisory control is discussed. The framework presented is based on the fact that different operational conditions manifest themselves as clusters in a multivariate measurement space. These clusters are identified and linked to specific and corresponding events by use of principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering. A reduced system model is assigned to each type of extreme event and used to calculate appropriate local controller set points. In earlier work we have shown that this approach is applicable to wastewater treatment control using look-up tables to determine current set points. In this work we focus on the automatic determination of appropriate set points by use of steady state and dynamic predictions. The performance of a relatively simple steady-state supervisory controller is compared with that of a model predictive supervisory controller. Also, a look-up table approach is included in the comparison, as it provides a simple and robust alternative to the steady-state and model predictive controllers, The methodology is illustrated in a simulation study.

Multivariate Analysis for Animal Selection in Experimental Research

Background: Several researchers seek methods for the selection of homogeneous groups of animals in experimental studies, a fact justified because homogeneity is an indispensable prerequisite for casualization of treatments. The lack of robust methods that comply with statistical and biological principles is the reason why researchers use empirical or subjective methods, influencing their results. Objective: To develop a multivariate statistical model for the selection of a homogeneous group of animals for experimental research and to elaborate a computational package to use it. Methods: The set of echocardiographic data of 115 male Wistar rats with supravalvular aortic stenosis (AoS) was used as an example of model development. Initially, the data were standardized, and became dimensionless. Then, the variance matrix of the set was submitted to principal components analysis (PCA), aiming at reducing the parametric space and at retaining the relevant variability. That technique established a new Cartesian system into which the animals were allocated, and finally the confidence region (ellipsoid) was built for the profile of the animals’ homogeneous responses. The animals located inside the ellipsoid were considered as belonging to the homogeneous batch; those outside the ellipsoid were considered spurious. Results: The PCA established eight descriptive axes that represented the accumulated variance of the data set in 88.71%. The allocation of the animals in the new system and the construction of the confidence region revealed six spurious animals as compared to the homogeneous batch of 109 animals. Conclusion: The biometric criterion presented proved to be effective, because it considers the animal as a whole, analyzing jointly all parameters measured, in addition to having a small discard rate.