Soral synapomorphies are significant for the systematics of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex (Ustilaginaceae)

The genera Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces are a polyphyletic complex of plant pathogenic fungi. The four main morphological characters used to define these genera have been considered homoplasious and not useful for resolving the complex. This study re-evaluates character homology and discusses the use of these characters for defining monophyletic groups recovered from a reconstructed phylogeny using four nuclear loci. Generic delimitation of smut fungi based on their hosts is also discussed as a means for identifying genera within this group. Morphological characters and host specificity can be used to circumscribe genera within the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex.

Private health insurance status and utilisation of dental services in Australia

This article focuses on the relationship between private insurance status and dental service utilisation in Australia using data between 1995 and 2001. This article employs joint maximum likelihood to estimate models of time since last dental visit treating private ancillary health insurance (PAHI) as endogenous. The sensitivity of results to the choice between two different but related types of instrumental variables is examined. We find robust evidence in both 1995 and 2001 that individuals with a PAHI policy make significantly more frequent dental consultations relative to those without such coverage. A comparison of the 1995 and 2001 results, however, suggests that there has been an increasing role of PAHI in terms of the frequency of dental consultations over time. This seems intuitive given the trends in the price of unsubsidised private dental consultations. In terms of policy, our results suggest that while government measures to increase private health insurance coverage in Australia has been successful to a significant degree, it may have come at some cost in terms of socio-economic inequality as the privately insured are provided much better access to care and financial protection.

Mapping quantitative trait loci in a wild population using linkage and linkage disequilibrium analyses

Historical information can be used, in addition to pedigree, traits and genotypes, to map quantitative trait locus (QTL) in general populations via maximum likelihood estimation of variance components. This analysis is known as linkage disequilibrium (LD) and linkage mapping, because it exploits both linkage in families and LD at the population level. The search for QTL in the wild population of Soay sheep on St. Kilda is a proof of principle. We analysed the data from a previous study and confirmed some of the QTLs reported. The most striking result was the confirmation of a QTL affecting birth weight that had been reported using association tests but not when using linkage-based analyses. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010.

The relationship between anti-mullerian hormone in women receiving fertility assessments and age at menopause in subfertile women : evidence from large population studies

Context: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentration reflects ovarian aging and is argued to be a useful predictor of age at menopause (AMP). It is hypothesized that AMH falling below a critical threshold corresponds to follicle depletion, which results in menopause. With this threshold, theoretical predictions of AMP can be made. Comparisons of such predictions with observed AMP from population studies support the role for AMH as a forecaster of menopause. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate whether previous relationships between AMH and AMP are valid using a much larger data set. Setting: AMH was measured in 27 563 women attending fertility clinics. Study Design: From these data a model of age-related AMH change was constructed using a robust regression analysis. Data on AMP from subfertile women were obtained from the population-based Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Prospect- EPIC) cohort (n � 2249). By constructing a probability distribution of age at which AMH falls below a critical threshold and fitting this to Prospect-EPIC menopausal age data using maximum likelihood, such a threshold was estimated. Main Outcome: The main outcome was conformity between observed and predicted AMP. Results: To get a distribution of AMH-predicted AMP that fit the Prospect-EPIC data, we found the critical AMH threshold should vary among women in such a way that women with low age-specific AMH would have lower thresholds, whereas women with high age-specific AMH would have higher thresholds (mean 0.075 ng/mL; interquartile range 0.038–0.15 ng/mL). Such a varying AMH threshold for menopause is a novel and biologically plausible finding. AMH became undetectable (�0.2 ng/mL) approximately 5 years before the occurrence of menopause, in line with a previous report. Conclusions: The conformity of the observed and predicted distributions of AMP supports the hypothesis that declining population averages of AMH are associated with menopause, making AMH an excellent candidate biomarker for AMP prediction. Further research will help establish the accuracy of AMH levels to predict AMP within individuals.

Sample size considerations and augmentation of computer experiments

Computer Experiments, consisting of a number of runs of a computer model with different inputs, are now common-place in scientific research. Using a simple fire model for illustration some guidelines are given for the size of a computer experiment. A graph is provided relating the error of prediction to the sample size which should be of use when designing computer experiments. Methods for augmenting computer experiments with extra runs are also described and illustrated. The simplest method involves adding one point at a time choosing that point with the maximum prediction variance. Another method that appears to work well is to choose points from a candidate set with maximum determinant of the variance covariance matrix of predictions.

Genetic improvement of giant freshwater prawn in Vietnam

The giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) or GFP is one of the most important freshwater crustacean species in the inland aquaculture sector of many tropical and subtropical countries. Since the 1990’s, there has been rapid global expansion of freshwater prawn farming, especially in Asian countries, with an average annual rate of increase of 48% between 1999 and 2001 (New, 2005). In Vietnam, GFP is cultured in a variety of culture systems, typically in integrated or rotational rice-prawn culture (Phuong et al., 2006) and has become one of the most common farmed aquatic species in the country, due to its ability to grow rapidly and to attract high market price and high demand. Despite potential for expanded production, sustainability of freshwater prawn farming in the region is currently threatened by low production efficiency and vulnerability of farmed stocks to disease. Commercial large scale and small scale GFP farms in Vietnam have experienced relatively low stock productivity, large size and weight variation, a low proportion of edible meat (large head to body ratio), scarcity of good quality seed stock. The current situation highlights the need for a systematic stock improvement program for GFP in Vietnam aimed at improving economically important traits in this species. This study reports on the breeding program for fast growth employing combined (between and within) family selection in giant freshwater prawn in Vietnam. The base population was synthesized using a complete diallel cross including 9 crosses from two local stocks (DN and MK strains) and a third exotic stock (Malaysian strain - MY). In the next three selection generations, matings were conducted between genetically unrelated brood stock to produce full-sib and (paternal) half-sib families. All families were produced and reared separately until juveniles in each family were tagged as a batch using visible implant elastomer (VIE) at a body size of approximately 2 g. After tags were verified, 60 to 120 juveniles chosen randomly from each family were released into two common earthen ponds of 3,500 m2 pond for a grow-out period of 16 to 18 weeks. Selection applied at harvest on body weight was a combined (between and within) family selection approach. 81, 89, 96 and 114 families were produced for the Selection line in the F0, F1, F2 and F3 generations, respectively. In addition to the Selection line, 17 to 42 families were produced for the Control group in each generation. Results reported here are based on a data set consisting of 18,387 body and 1,730 carcass records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Variance and covariance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood fitting a multi-trait animal model. Experiments assessed performance of VIE tags in juvenile GFP of different size classes and individuals tagged with different numbers of tags showed that juvenile GFP at 2 g were of suitable size for VIE tags with no negative effects evident on growth or survival. Tag retention rates were above 97.8% and tag readability rates were 100% with a correct assignment rate of 95% through to mature animal size of up to 170 g. Across generations, estimates of heritability for body traits (body weight, body length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width and abdominal width) and carcass weight traits (abdominal weight, skeleton-off weight and telson-off weight) were moderate and ranged from 0.14 to 0.19 and 0.17 to 0.21, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated for females were significantly higher than for males whereas carcass weight trait heritabilities estimated for females and males were not significantly different (P > 0.05). Maternal and common environmental effects for body traits accounted for 4 to 5% of the total variance and were greater in females (7 to 10%) than in males (4 to 5%). Genetic correlations among body traits were generally high in both sexes. Genetic correlations between body and carcass weight traits were also high in the mixed sexes. Average selection response (% per generation) for body weight (transformed to square root) estimated as the difference between the Selection and the Control group was 7.4% calculated from least squares means (LSMs), 7.0% from estimated breeding values (EBVs) and 4.4% calculated from EBVs between two consecutive generations. Favourable correlated selection responses (estimated from LSMs) were detected for other body traits (12.1%, 14.5%, 10.4%, 15.5% and 13.3% for body length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width and abdominal width, respectively) over three selection generations. Data in the second selection generation showed positive correlated responses for carcass weight traits (8.8%, 8.6% and 8.8% for abdominal weight, skeleton-off weight and telson-off weight, respectively). Data in the third selection generation showed that heritability for body traits were moderate and ranged from 0.06 to 0.11 and 0.11 to 0.22 at weeks 10 and 18, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated at week 10 were not significantly lower than at week 18. Genetic correlations between body traits within age and genetic correlations for body traits between ages were generally high. Overall our results suggest that growth rate responds well to the application of family selection and carcass weight traits can also be improved in parallel, using this approach. Moreover, selection for high growth rate in GFP can be undertaken successfully before full market size has been reached. The outcome of this study was production of an improved culture strain of GFP for the Vietnamese culture industry that will be trialed in real farm production environments to confirm the genetic gains identified in the experimental stock improvement program.

Utility of COI, CAD and morphological data for resolving relationships within the genus Sarcophaga (sensu lato) (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) : a preliminary study

Currently there are ~3000 known species of Sarcophagidae (Diptera), which are classified into 173 genera in three subfamilies. Almost 25% of sarcophagids belong to the genus Sarcophaga (sensu lato) however little is known about the validity of, and relationships between the ~150 (or more) subgenera of Sarcophaga s.l. In this preliminary study, we evaluated the usefulness of three sources of data for resolving relationships between 35 species from 14 Sarcophaga s.l. subgenera: the mitochondrial COI barcode region, ~800. bp of the nuclear gene CAD, and 110 morphological characters. Bayesian, maximum likelihood (ML) and maximum parsimony (MP) analyses were performed on the combined dataset. Much of the tree was only supported by the Bayesian and ML analyses, with the MP tree poorly resolved. The genus Sarcophaga s.l. was resolved as monophyletic in both the Bayesian and ML analyses and strong support was obtained at the species-level. Notably, the only subgenus consistently resolved as monophyletic was Liopygia. The monophyly of and relationships between the remaining Sarcophaga s.l. subgenera sampled remain questionable. We suggest that future phylogenetic studies on the genus Sarcophaga s.l. use combined datasets for analyses. We also advocate the use of additional data and a range of inference strategies to assist with resolving relationships within Sarcophaga s.l.

The evolution and biogeography of the austral horse fly tribe Scionini (Diptera: Tabanidae: Pangoniinae) inferred from multiple mitochondrial and nuclear genes

Phylogenetic relationships within the Tabanidae are largely unknown, despite their considerable medical and ecological importance. The first robust phylogenetic hypothesis for the horse fly tribe Scionini is provided, completing the systematic placement of all tribes in the subfamily Pangoniinae. The Scionini consists of seven mostly southern hemisphere genera distributed in Australia, New Guinea, New Zealand and South America. A 5757. bp alignment of 6 genes, including mitochondrial (COI and COII), ribosomal (28S) and nuclear (AATS and CAD regions 1, 3 and 4) genes, was analysed for 176 taxa using both Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches. Results indicate the Scionini are strongly monophyletic, with the exclusion of the only northern hemisphere genus Goniops. The South American genera Fidena, Pityocera and Scione were strongly monophyletic, corresponding to current morphology-based classification schemes. The most widespread genus Scaptia was paraphyletic and formed nine strongly supported monophyletic clades, each corresponding to either the current subgenera or several previously synonymised genera that should be formally resurrected. Molecular results also reveal a newly recognised genus endemic to New Zealand, formerly placed within Scaptia. Divergence time estimation was employed to assess the global biogeographical patterns in the Pangoniinae. These analyses demonstrated that the Scionini are a typical Gondwanan group whose diversification was influenced by the fragmentation of that ancient land mass. Furthermore, results indicate that the Scionini most likely originated in Australia and subsequently radiated to New Zealand and South American by both long distance dispersal and vicariance. The phylogenetic framework of the Scionini provided herein will be valuable for taxonomic revisions of the Tabanidae.

Quantitative genetic parameter estimates for body and carcass traits in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for harvest weight in Vietnam

We estimated the heritability and correlations between body and carcass weight traits in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (GFP) (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for harvest body weight in Vietnam. The data set consisted of 18,387 body and 1,730 carcass records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Variance and covariance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood fitting a multi-trait animal model. Across generations, estimates of heritability for body and carcass weight traits were moderate and ranged from 0.14 to 0.19 and 0.17 to 0.21, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated for females were significantly higher than for males whereas carcass weight trait heritabilities estimated for females and males were not significantly different (P>. 0.05). Maternal effects for body traits accounted for 4 to 5% of the total variance and were greater in females than in males. Genetic correlations among body traits were generally high in the mixed sexes. Genetic correlations between body and carcass weight traits were also high. Although some issues remain regarding the best statistical model to be fitted to GFP data, our results suggest that selection for high harvest body weight based on breeding values estimated by fitting an animal model to the data can significantly improve mean body and carcass weight in GFP.

Multi-gene phylogenetic analysis of south-east Asian pest members of the Bactrocera dorsalis species complex (Diptera: Tephritidae) does not support current taxonomy

Bactrocera dorsalis sensu stricto, B. papayae, B. philippinensis and B. carambolae are serious pest fruit fly species of the B. dorsalis complex that predominantly occur in south-east Asia and the Pacific. Identifying molecular diagnostics has proven problematic for these four taxa, a situation that cofounds biosecurity and quarantine efforts and which may be the result of at least some of these taxa representing the same biological species. We therefore conducted a phylogenetic study of these four species (and closely related outgroup taxa) based on the individuals collected from a wide geographic range; sequencing six loci (cox1, nad4-3′, CAD, period, ITS1, ITS2) for approximately 20 individuals from each of 16 sample sites. Data were analysed within maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic frameworks for individual loci and concatenated data sets for which we applied multiple monophyly and species delimitation tests. Species monophyly was measured by clade support, posterior probability or bootstrap resampling for Bayesian and likelihood analyses respectively, Rosenberg's reciprocal monophyly measure, P(AB), Rodrigo's (P(RD)) and the genealogical sorting index, gsi. We specifically tested whether there was phylogenetic support for the four 'ingroup' pest species using a data set of multiple individuals sampled from a number of populations. Based on our combined data set, Bactrocera carambolae emerges as a distinct monophyletic clade, whereas B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis are unresolved. These data add to the growing body of evidence that B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis are the same biological species, which poses consequences for quarantine, trade and pest management.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Self excitation in equity indices

A "self-exciting" market is one in which the probability of observing a crash increases in response to the occurrence of a crash. It essentially describes cases where the initial crash serves to weaken the system to some extent, making subsequent crashes more likely. This thesis investigates if equity markets possess this property. A self-exciting extension of the well-known jump-based Bates (1996) model is used as the workhorse model for this thesis, and a particle-filtering algorithm is used to facilitate estimation by means of maximum likelihood. The estimation method is developed so that option prices are easily included in the dataset, leading to higher quality estimates. Equilibrium arguments are used to price the risks associated with the time-varying crash probability, and in turn to motivate a risk-neutral system for use in option pricing. The option pricing function for the model is obtained via the application of widely-used Fourier techniques. An application to S&P500 index returns and a panel of S&P500 index option prices reveals evidence of self excitation.

Consistent HMM parameter estimation using Kerridge inaccuracy rates

In this paper, we propose a novel online hidden Markov model (HMM) parameter estimator based on Kerridge inaccuracy rate (KIR) concepts. Under mild identifiability conditions, we prove that our online KIR-based estimator is strongly consistent. In simulation studies, we illustrate the convergence behaviour of our proposed online KIR-based estimator and provide a counter-example illustrating the local convergence properties of the well known recursive maximum likelihood estimator (arguably the best existing solution).

Quantitative genetic parameters for body traits at different ages in a cultured stock of giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) selected for fast growth

The aim of the current study was to estimate heritabilities and correlations for body traits at different ages (Weeks 10 and 18 after stocking) in a giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) population selected for fast growth rate in Vietnam. The dataset consisted of 4650 body records (2432 and 2218 records collected at Weeks 10 and 18, respectively) in the full pedigree comprising a total of 18 387 records. Variance and covariance components were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood fitting a multi-trait animal model. Estimates of heritability for body traits (bodyweight, body length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width and abdominal width) were moderate and ranged from 0.06 to 0.11 and from 0.11 to 0.22 at Weeks 10 and 18, respectively. Body-trait heritabilities estimated at Week 10 were not significantly lower than at Week 18. Genetic correlations between body traits within age and genetic correlations for body traits between ages were generally high. Our results suggested that selection for high growth rate in GFP can be undertaken successfully before full market size has been reached.

A molecular phylogeny of the checkered beetles and a description of Epiclininae a new subfamily (Coleoptera: Cleroidea: Cleridae)

We provide the first molecular phylogeny of the clerid lineage (Coleoptera: Cleridae, Thanerocleridae) within the superfamily Cleroidea to examine the two most recently-proposed hypotheses of higher-level classification. Phylogenetic relationships of checkered beetles were inferred from approximately ~5,000nt of both nuclear and mitochondrial rDNA (28S, 16S, and 12S) and the mitochondrial protein-coding gene COI. A worldwide sample of ~70 genera representing almost a quarter of generic diversity of the clerid lineage was included and phylogenies were reconstructed using Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood approaches. Results support the monophyly of many proposed subfamilies but were not entirely congruent with either current classification system. The subfamilial relationships within the Cleridae are resolved with support for three main lineages. Tillinae are supported as the sister group to all other subfamilies within the Cleridae, whereas Thaneroclerinae, Korynetinae and a new subfamily formally described here, Epiclininae subf. n, form a sister group to Clerinae + Hydnocerinae.