Sample size considerations and augmentation of computer experiments

Computer Experiments, consisting of a number of runs of a computer model with different inputs, are now common-place in scientific research. Using a simple fire model for illustration some guidelines are given for the size of a computer experiment. A graph is provided relating the error of prediction to the sample size which should be of use when designing computer experiments. Methods for augmenting computer experiments with extra runs are also described and illustrated. The simplest method involves adding one point at a time choosing that point with the maximum prediction variance. Another method that appears to work well is to choose points from a candidate set with maximum determinant of the variance covariance matrix of predictions.